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Rookie pitchers give you a roofie.  Rookie hitters give you agita.  So why do we keep going back for more like a guest on Oprah?  It’s sorta like the old joke that Woody Allen quotes in Annie Hall.  We need the eggs.  Besides said eggs, if a rookie somehow/someway breaks out, he’ll help you win your championship.  Face it, if you draft properly in the first 7 to 10 rounds, your team will be competitive, but so should other teams.  It’s what you do after those rounds that makes the difference.  You’re not winning your league with A-Rod, but you could with Ian Desmond.  As wonky as that sounds, it’s true.  If you click on the player’s name, you’ll find whole posts and projections for each guy.  It’s like Santa woke up drunk in March.  Anyway, here’s some rookies to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Brian Matusz – As the fortune cookie that snuck through quality control says, a person who goes to bed with scratchy rear wakes up with a smelly finger.  Rookie pitchers can give you a scratchy rear.  I’m real hesitant about rookie pitchers.  I’d prefer a starter to target from that post.

Buster Posey – I wouldn’t touch him in two catcher leagues at this point.  There’s nothing really to get excited about for 2010 without the Giants getting hit by injuries.  Namely, the fat one in The Flying Molina Brothers.  In deep keepers, I’d grab him late; Posey will be back at some point.

Logan Morrison – Just about everyone has given up on Gaby Sanchez, except the Marlins.  Morrison will break on through at some point.  May not be until September, says my Native American shaman.

Ian Desmond – It’s asking a lot for the Nats to make the right move, but the right move is starting Desmond.

Jason Heyward – NL Rookie of the Year?  Yeah, he can do it, but more than likely, if he gets off to a hot start in April, I’m going to be telling everyone to sell him.

Carlos Santana – Unlike Posey, he could be up sooner vs. later because Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas, who sounds like a vaquero, are blocking him.  Still wouldn’t draft Santana for my bench in non-keepers.  The roster space vs. reward just isn’t great enough.

Tyler Flowers – One of the few rookies I didn’t dedicate a post to in the offseason, because A) Pierzynski is nothing if not reliable.  Emphasis on nothing.  B) Rookie catchers tend to underperform their 1st year.  See Wieters’s 2009 for further proof.  C) There’s no C.

Austin Jackson – Along with Ian Kennedy, Austin seems to be suffering from The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule.

Neftali Feliz – Ah, I had high hopes for Feliz this year, but it doesn’t look like he’s making the club out of the spring.  There’s always Aroldis Chapman.  Speaking of which…

Aroldis Chapman – If anyone can handle Dusty’s human rights violations, it’s a guy who played for Fidel Castro.

Desmond Jennings – Probably won’t be up until September, but I’d grab him in deep AL-Only leagues and/or keepers.  Desmond will be a great one as long as he can find his constant.

Mike Stanton – Barring injuries, we won’t see him until September at the earliest.  In NL-Only keepers, I could see taking a flier on him.

Scott Sizemore – Hey, a player on this list that actually might have an every day job to start the season!  Dare to dream.  And he’s the one with an injury.  He’s recovering from his ankled ankle and should be ready to go by Opening Day.  Sizemore can/should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – I’m pretty sure the only reason Strasburg even seemed like he might have a chance to make the club out of the spring was so the Nats could sell some tickets.  Now the House of Strasburg fans, dressed in early-1900s Austrian uniforms, will have to wait until at least June.

From Around The Web

  1. DrEasy says:
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    It’s the year of the Desmond!

  2. DrEasy says:
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    I finally had my draft today! This is how it went, I’m curious what you guys think about my team (12-team league, default 5×5 Yahoo settings, 2 UT, 2SP, 2RP, 5P, 5 bench):

    1. (3) Álex Rodríguez 3B
    2. (22) Matt Holliday OF
    3. (27) Kevin Youkilis 1B,3B
    4. (46) Curtis Granderson OF
    5. (51) Cliff Lee SP
    6. (70) Josh Johnson SP
    7. (75) Clayton Kershaw SP
    8. (94) Ricky Nolasco SP
    9. (99) Raúl Ibañez OF
    10. (118) Carlos Mármol RP
    11. (123) Alfonso Soriano OF
    12. (142) Jorge Posada C
    13. (147) Carlos González OF
    14. (166) José López 1B,2B
    15. (171) Bobby Jenks RP
    16. (190) Miguel Tejada SS
    17. (195) Phil Hughes SP,RP
    18. (214) Jason Frasor RP
    19. (219) Octavio Dotel RP
    20. (238) Scott Downs RP
    21. (243) Alcides Escobar SS
    22. (262) Chris Pérez RP
    23. (267) Drew Stubbs OF

    Cliff Lee was a panic move (the kind of Reach you described in a post a few days ago), same with Tejada, I hate both picks. Also, I know you hate Posada, but I can’t get enough of him. I don’t usually 4 SPs in a row, like I did in rounds 5-8, but you take what the draft gives you.

    Available on waivers: Juan Pierre, Everth, Fowler, Ervin Santana, Dice-K. Any weaknesses I should fix with some waiver pick-ups? I’m hoping to trade Tejada for an arm, so I can activate Alcides and pick up more steals.

  3. DrEasy says:
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    I should mention that there’s only 3 OF slots, and so currently I have Alfonso Soriano and CarGo in my UTIL slots, and Drew Stubbs on my bench.

  4. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
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    Any word on Aroldis and a starting spot?

  5. MarkM says:
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    Hey Grey. I’m getting ready to draft in less than 12 hours to defend my title. This is my last mock before the draft, it’s 5×5 H2H w/ 2xUtil

    1. Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
    2. Ian Kinsler (Tex – 2B)
    3. Jimmy Rollins (Phi – SS)
    4. Justin Morneau (Min – 1B)
    5. Curtis Granderson (NYY – OF)
    6. Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF)
    7. Cliff Lee (Sea – SP)
    8. Josh Hamilton (Tex – OF)
    9. Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP)
    10. Ricky Nolasco (Fla – SP)
    11. Jake Peavy (CWS – SP)
    12. Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
    13. Brett Anderson (Oak – SP)
    14. Ian Stewart (Col – 2B,3B)
    15. Billy Wagner (Atl – RP)
    16. Geovany Soto (ChC – C)
    17. Jonathan Sánchez (SF – SP)
    18. Octavio Dotel (Pit – RP)
    19. Frank Francisco (Tex – RP)
    20. Garrett Jones (Pit – 1B,OF)
    21. David Price (TB – SP)
    22. Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
    23. Brian Matusz (Bal – SP)

  6. Eddy says:
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    Haha! Loved the Chapman blurb!

    Btw, I need some Grey insight into the future here. I’m gonna be blunt here-I have my doubts about Greinke being an ace. How does a guy do extremely terrible in 2008 and then do THAT in 2009? Personally, I think he’s following a more Barry Zito-like path. Could it be that he plays in the Royals? Perhaps. There’s just something about Greinke that males me believe one year he’s going to collapse…

  7. Eddy says:
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    @Eddy:
    makes*

    That sounded kind of wrong.

  8. Van Hammersly says:
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    Grey, in a 12-team league with a staff of Hamels, Jimenez, Bills, Cueto, De La Rosa, and Masterson, would you hold on to Neftali and just consider him a potentially nice MR a la late last season, hold on to him if the Rangers somehow announce he’ll be a starter, or just punt for now and grab another MR?

  9. Josh says:
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    +1 for the LOST reference.

  10. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @DrEasy: i’d drop one of you to many RPs for ervin santana asap. i think he may have a huge bounce back year now that he’s healthy again.

  11. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    Grey: “If anyone can handle Dusty’s human rights violations, it’s a guy who played for Fidel Castro.” – Ha! I always thought the reason that Livav and El Duque had a combined record of 16-6 in the postseason was that the pressure of dealing with the World Series was rather minimal after crossing the Gulf in a raft dealing with sharks and Fidels goons. Out of all of your prospects, I am targetting Desmond, and praying that the Nats due the right thing.

    If you don’t mind, please rate in order: Tillman, Matusz, Pelfrey, Kennedy, Chris Young, Stauffer, Morrow.

    And is Hammell still a good streamer on the road, and Hodgepadres at home?

    Thanks for your humor and wisdom

  12. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Eddy: what 2008 greinke are you talking about? the one that put up a mid-3.00 era, sub-1.30 whip, and over 8K/9IP?

    obviously not as great as 2009 (he is just 26 this season, so improvement can still be expected), but hardly “extremely terrible.” kinda personal preference exactly where you wanna rank him, but you aren’t looking at the facts if you have him below the top 5 or so SPs heading into the season.

  13. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: yeah, i snagged desmond for $1 in an auction last night as my next to last player.

  14. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    grey, what’s your outlook on eric young? june call up? the big steals guys were going far too rich for my blood in my auction draft last night, so i grabbed him late as a $1 flier, hoping he gets the call sooner rather than later and is a cheap ~30 SBs. i just can’t bring myself to drop serious $$ on rajai davis or borbon when i can get blanks and rasmus for cheaper.

  15. greenmountaincoffee says:
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    Any thoughts?? Probably going to need to upgrade the OF..

    Ianneta (C)
    Cabrera (1b)
    Beckham (2b); after a week when eligible..
    Zimmerman (3b)
    Andrus (SS)
    Granderson (OF)
    Victorino (OF)
    Bruce (Of)
    Gutierrez (OF)
    A. Gonzalez (Util)
    Desmond (Bn)
    Maybin (Bn)

    Santana
    Hamels
    Garza
    Hanson
    Liriano
    Slowey
    E.Santana
    Gonzalez
    Qualls
    Gregg

  16. dingers says:
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    probably what i get for drafting the injured, but when do you think these guys will get their DL status in my ESPN league? B Webb, K Wood and J Reyes? they are seriously hindering me from picking these waiver wires…

  17. Billy says:
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    How far should we let Beltran drop in drafts? 12rd or 13rd pick good value in 10 team league?

  18. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    am i the only person not completely sold on granderson? seems like he’s on every razzballers team. his cost (4th/5th rounder in most cases) just scares me when combined with his batting avg. and while he seems young, he’s like 29, so he’s not in the stage of his career where you can expect significant improvement. just seems like he’s getting most of this ride out of moving to yankee stadium.

  19. Rick Dempsey says:
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    Do you know of a good link to lookup projected lineups for MLB teams. I don’t like the one’s I’ve checked out.

  20. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    Grey – one more question. A trade offer was made for the Freak, which was not to my liking. I countered with offering the Freak, Chris Davis, and Broxton, for Sabathia and Longoria. Don’t know if it will be accepted, but I presume that this would work out in my favor.

    Thanks, as always.

  21. Euroalien says:
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    The big draft was Saturday – 12 Team, 5 x 5, Max. 8 Keepers (I kept 6)….. We start 20 out of 25 – Min. 8 hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS & 3 OFs & 8 pitchers plus 4 any posn) I had the eighth pick in the full draft.

    Howard
    Youkilis
    Bay
    Granderson
    Santana
    Beckett

    7 – Hamilton (He better stay healthy…… could have taken Victorino)
    8 – Price (Wandy was already gone at this point and I wanted someone from that tier)

    9 – Bell (I know a little early to take a closer – but I wanted Bell)
    10 – Stewart (Yes!!!)
    11 – Slowey
    12 – Soriano (I know another RP……)
    13 – Damon (Not a big fan, but about the best available…..)
    14 – Alexi Ramirez (I wanted Elvis or Asdrubal but they went early)
    15 – Cueto
    16 – Rauch
    17 – Fowler
    18 – Sanchez (Yes!!)
    19 – Napoli
    20 – Travis Snider
    21 – Sizemore
    22 – Headley
    23 – Thornton (I think he replaces Jenks by June)
    24 – Wuertz
    25 – Desmond

    I was pretty happy coming out of the draft. Pence, McCutchen, Bruce, Reimold, Borbon all went early…… Just missed out on ECarb & Alcides. I think I’ll struggle for Avg & SBs, but the other stats should be OK. Do you see any weaknesses, did I reach too early anywhere (I know….. the closer thing maybe).

  22. Omnificent says:
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    Here is the team for this year (H2H, 12 Team, Standard 5×5 categories plus Holds and OPS) with round next to each player:

    C: Soto (17)
    1B: M-Cabrera (1)
    2B: Cano (4)
    SS: Reyes (3)
    3B: Wright (2)
    OF: Granderson (5)
    OF: Beltran (12)
    OF: Reimold (15) [Now J. Hamilton after trade]
    Util: Helton (16)
    BN: N Morgan (14)

    SP: Josh Johnson (6)
    SP: Ubaldo Jimenez (7)
    RP: Brian Wilson (10)
    RP: Valverde (11) [Now Scott Baker After Trade]
    P: Cole Hamels (8)
    P: Chad Billingsly (9)
    P: Jorge De La Rosa (13)
    P: Johnny Cueto (21)
    BN: Robinson Tejada (Undrafted)
    BN: Jason Frasor (18)
    BN: Jon Rausch (22)
    BN:Brandon Lyon (19)

    I am pretty thrilled with the team and the trades, though the league only has one DL slot and I do have some injury issues to manage early with Reyes & Beltran. After the Valverde trade, the team feels light on Saves…

  23. Tony says:
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    @Euroalien: price seems early, slowey too, but i guess it is a keeper, price could very well be a keeper nextyear if he progresses.

    @ThePoonTycoon: i’m a fan of grandy, we saw a dip in average last year but he’s not a .250 hitter, he’s probably not going to hit more than .275, but you have to like a guy with 30/20 power heading to Yankee stadium with that line up protecting and hitting him in? All i know is granderson has had some solid seasons previously and werth goes at the same time? and only has one solid season, i know he was platooned, and i know he is a Philly, etc, but gimme the choice? I’m taking Granderson. At yahoo werth is ranked #40 and Grandy is #55? Why? I dont know.

  24. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Tony: yeah, i mean, i am not a huge fan of either grandy or werth at their current prices. i’d rather look elsewhere in the 4th/5th round then get hunter pence later at cheaper value.

    also, if it was just a few teams i see him on it wouldn’t be a big deal, but i am seeing him on almost every team, which makes me think everyone must believe he’s undervalued as a 4th/5th rounder.

  25. .(). says:
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    almost did a spit take of cereal at “as long as he can find his constant”

    good stuff

  26. TheQuestforMerlin says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, I’m waiting on either Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison to light my (fantasy baseball) fire.

  27. Tony says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: i hear ya they’re favs on here…. grandy in the 5th is good value if you ask me. It just depends how you’re building your team. If you’ve got Braun or Kemp I wouldn’t be taking them. But if i take like a Miggy/Wright combo i’ve got two good average hitters and an OF’er like Granderson doesn’t bother me in the least.

  28. steamer says:
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    what position are you guys preferring to draft out of this year? Just found out I’m drafting 11th in a 12 team, H2H, 5×5. I’m thinking I’ll be ok, but probably have to reach a lot, since I’ll be waiting between picks. If I go 1b/3b in round 1/2, I’ll be looking at the Werth/Grandy tier for my #1 OF which kinda worries me. Then I have to decide to reach for SP in round 3/4 turn, or wait till 5/6 & grab someone in the Hamels/Johnson tier.

  29. HalLeeDay34 says:
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    Omnificent it’s scary how similar our hitters are. I started reading your post and was hoping I hadn’t posted this a little buzzed last night and not remembered. 12 team, 6*6 with losses the additional pitching category, can keep up to 4 with a 2 rd penalty, so no one can keep their first 2 picks. Here’s how I ended up and I’m looking for a little insight.
    C-Soto
    1b-M Cabrera
    2b-Cano(kept for a 7th)
    3b-I Stewart
    Ss-Alcides Esco
    Of-M Holliday, Granderson, Beltran, J Pierre, C Hart
    SP-Felix(k for 6), Kershaw(k for 8), Carpenter(k for 12),Wolf, Liriano, Pineiro, R Romero
    RP-Aardsma, M Gonzalez, B Jenks, K Gregg
    When Beltran hits the dl who do I pick up? Penny, H Bailey, C Young, Rzep, Hammel any other sleeper SP to consider? Just looking for some feedback here from Grey or anyone else with a thought. Thanks

  30. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @steamer: i like the back end of the 1st round. grab a stud 1B/3B combo (i think i prefer fielder/longoria but to each his own), and then work from there.

  31. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Tony: yeah, i just don’t see grandy being that much more valuable than nelson cruz. both are a bit questionable on the avg side, both have the potential for 20 SBs, and i’d give cruz the edge in pure power.

  32. majortommy says:
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    Posey is tearing up the spring this year, just saying. The Giants need his bat in the lineup and they could possibly compete in the NL West.

  33. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: The difference is the Yankee wind tunnell. I read somewhere that at least 8 fly ball outs Grandy hit at Tiger Stadium last year would have been homers at Yankee stadium. Just look what the wind tunnell did for Damon and Jeter. Tex’ value also jumps. I think that this is reflected in Grey’s ratings.

  34. AdamH says:
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    How would you rank these guys for now: Jon Rauch, Chris Perez, and Franklin Morales.

  35. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    This is a good post for the issue I want to ask you guys about. Just had my 10 team H2H keeper league draft. 6×6 (OPS + QS). Keeper status is based on round drafted and players move up only 1 each year so if you “hit” on a late round guy they can become REALLY valuable. Here is my pitching staff:

    SP – Sabathia
    SP – F-Her
    SP – Hamels
    RP – Soria
    RP – N Feliz
    P – Porcello
    P – Slowey
    P – Jonathan Sanchez
    BN – Liriano, Chapman, Matusz
    BN hitters – Borbon, Blanks, Posey

    So as you can see, I ended up ignoring saves a little bit and going with some high potential younger guys. I’m very hesitant to drop any of them but I feel like I probably need another closer (and there are some low end RP options on the waiver wire). Should I try to trade any of them to open up a roster spot and pick up someone like Dotel? Should I not do anything for the time being? Any thoughts would be appreciated (and sorry for the long post)

  36. Tony says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: i agree with the comparison to Cruz, other than grandy is a yankee in that stadium with a better track record. I mean Grandy is a 5th rounder ish guy and Cruz is a 6th rounder is guy? I’d rather take Grandy’s track record than the guy who was a career AAAA guy. It could go either way. Just depends what else is around during those rounds, etc…. but if its one round difference i’ll spend the 5th rounder on grandy than the 6th round pick on Cruz….

  37. Bob says:
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    Buchholz, Ervin Santanta or Kazmir as last started in 12 team mixed league? I drafted Clay, but someone just dropped the others.

  38. Beau says:
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    @Bob: Santana

  39. dsimon says:
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    Grey-

    At this point, with Reyes on the DL for a couple weeks… Ian Desmond or Everth? Thanks.

  40. Bob says:
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    Correcting typ on post #34. last “starter”

  41. GTS says:
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    Who is better to own: Correia or Latos?

  42. Beau says:
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    @Bob: I take back what I said, stick with clay per razz 300 rankings.

  43. Beau says:
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    @GTS: Depends the needs of your staff, but in a vacuum id say Latos.

  44. Justin says:
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    Would you rather have Travis Snider or Mat Latos in a keeper league?

    Dont take any league or roster considerations into play, just in a vacuum.

  45. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    I’d take Correia in a redraft, Latos in a keeper

  46. quimmy says:
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    In a league with the following scoring:

    BA, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, R, SB-CS, BB

    Where would Figgins rank as a 2B? He can contribute to 6 of the 8 cats at a high end. Would he be a Top 5 option at 2B?

  47. KarlJ. says:
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    Just had another draft last night for one of my 4 leagues that I am in this year. Roto, 5X5, 10 team. Results below.

    C Montero (15)
    1B Morneau (4)
    2B Utley (1)
    3B Youlklis (3)
    SS Reyes (5)
    MI A Escobar (21)
    OF Granderson (6)
    OF C Lee (7)
    OF Hamilton (8)
    CI Beckham (10)
    UT Rios (12)
    SP Lincecum (2)
    SP Beckett (9)
    SP Billingsley (11)
    SP Slowey (16)
    RP F Rodriguez (14)
    RP F Cordero (15)
    P Aardsma (17)
    P Scherzer (18)
    B J Bruce (13)
    B T Hudson (20)
    B Dotel (22)
    B Buchholz (23)

    Thanks Grey. I know you must have looked at a hundred of these the last couple weeks so to quote Saul Rosenberg from The Jerky Boys “your eyes must be going crazy”

  48. Tony says:
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    @KarlJ.: nice team, reyes is healthy all year wowsers…. pitching might be a little light/suspect, but Lincecum will help correct some of the risk beckett and bills bring…

    very solid i think.

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @DrEasy: That would be nice.

    @DrEasy: Your team is not as bad as it should be for taking 4 SPs in a row. Power and pitching look fine, you look very weak on steals. Lose Downs for Ervin.

    @Asdrubal Bastardo: Not since I posted this.

    @MarkM: Looks like a lot of risk/upside chances. Wouldn’t mind seeing you take a Raul Ibanez-type on offense.

    @Eddy: Strikeouts way too many guys for a Zito comparison right now.

    @Van Hammersly: If you wnat an MR, then keep him. Otherwise, you can lose him.

    @Paulie Allnuts: Hammel – more of a matchups guy. I’ll rank Kennedy then Pelfrey at the end of that list, rest are ranked in the top 80 starters or top 300.

    @ThePoonTycoon: If your league’s deep enough to wait on Young, he’s good for a $1. He’ll be up if there[‘s an injury or if someone isn’t producing. Could be before June, might be after.

    @greenmountaincoffee: How many teams?

    @dingers: Right before the season.

    @Billy: That sounds about right.

    @Rick Dempsey: ESPN has them.

    @Paulie Allnuts: Yeah, I’d take Longoria’s side there.

    @Euroalien: Price is a reach, but whatever. I think you’re very short on steals. Cueto, Slowey, Price, Sanchez… While I like them all, would’ve been nice to see you take an SP that wasn’t all upside. Someone like Oswalt, for instance. The rest of your team looks strong.

    @Omnificent: Team looks very strong. If Reyes and Beltran bounce back, you could have a powerhouse. If just Reyes does, which I imagine will be the case, then you’ll still be in great shape. Very nice SPs… Yeah, you might have to scrounge for RPs.

    @.().: Hehe

    @TheQuestforMerlin: We shall see…

    @HalLeeDay34: You have a bunch of question marks on hitting and pitching. Your team looks light on speed, power and OBP and high on risk, especially with the SPs. I’d grab Young.

    @AdamH: Perez, Rauch…

    @Buddo Chezuski: Trade Porcello.

    @dsimon: Everth

    @Justin: Snider

    @quimmy: Top 5

    @KarlJ.: I think you have more question marks on a 10 team hitting squad than I’d like to see. If Reyes and Hamilton come out looking good, then your team will be very solid. You need Reyes. Right now, your pitching looks better than your hitting.

  50. matthole says:
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    @Grey: was just asked to participate in a 10 team 5×5 h2h league with daily pickups and changes. have a few questions on your strategy.
    You say to load up on SPs and they dont have to be elite too. Which tier do you want your SP1 and which rd do you take him? Do you recommend taking one stud in the first 6 rds then take a bunch of baker/bills/dempster types or just wait till the 10th rd for those guys then load up.
    Same with closers. Do you still advise taking from the heath bell tier or is that now pushed back a tier, etc.

    Thanks

  51. buschfan says:
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    Is it crazy to take A. Ramirez 41st overall since 3B is so thin. Is it better to hold off for Beltre later?

  52. Beau says:
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    @matthole: Check the pitchings pairings post that was made a couple weeks ago and reference against the razz rankings tiers, insanely useful.

  53. matthole says:
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    @Beau: agreed, thats why im asking if there are adjustments for the head to head format

  54. Beau says:
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    @matthole: Oh, sorry about that, didnt notice the h2h part of the question. I think for head to head you want to stick with more consistent pitchers, ones with fewer nagging injuries, stuff like that.

  55. HalLeeDay34 says:
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    Forgot to mention I traded my 3rd and 5th rd choices away to overcome injuries last year. I was hoping my value with Felix(6)and Carpenter(12) could overcome it.
    Steals-In a head to head 12 team league Juan Pierre and Alcides with a hopeful 15-20 from Holliday, Hart, Granderson still leaves me too light there you think?
    No OBP in my league it’s H, R,RBI,Hr,S,Avg.
    What/who would your recommend me going after t try and solidify my problem areas?

  56. Stephen says:
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    @buschfan: I would take Beltre later. Hitting at Fenway, and looking at his career track record minus his career year, he is a lock for 20 to 25 homers and 80 RBI barring any injuries. In my 20 team league, I have Beltre and got him in the 9th, A-Ram went in the 4th. During the 4th round, I got Adam Dunn. I am pretty sure the value is with Beltre.

  57. matthole says:
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    @Beau: I read the h2h strategy post too, thanks tho

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: Probably take a Hamels type as an SP1 and sometime in the 7th round.

    @buschfan: Beltre

    @HalLeeDay34: I don’t think you can own Pierre without losing out on power elsewhere.

  59. matthole says:
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    @Grey: thank you

  60. Ben the M says:
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    20 team keeper league. 5×5 stats. 6 keepers.

    Hanley & Felix for Reyes, Pedroia, and Kemp

    My other keepers are:
    Holliday
    Zimmerman
    Votto

    I have 7 picks in the first 3 rounds (including 3 in the first) and can fill my last keeper spot by trading a first round pick for someone like Wieters, Beckett, Choo, Dunn, Nolasco ect….

    I am leaning towards keeping Hanley and Felix but would love some feedback.

  61. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Ben the M: hanley and felix

    in a league that large, hanley has even more value. and if reyes goes all 2009 reyes on us (not off to a good start), an easy replacement isn’t gonna be sitting on the waiver wire.

  62. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    anyone know approximately when injured players will be placed on the DL?

  63. Suck My Wieters says:
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    Grey and anyone else,

    What do you think of this 12 team, head to head team.

    Theres holds in the league, so I punted saves.

    Scoring as follows..

    For hitters:

    Runs (R), Singles (1B), Doubles (2B), Triples (3B), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Walks (BB), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP)

    Pitchers:

    Wins (W), Losses (L), Complete Games (CG), Shutouts (SHO), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Holds (HLD), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

    1. (5) Matt Kemp OF

    2. (20) Ian Kinsler 2B

    3. (29) Víctor Martínez C,1B

    4. (44) Justin Morneau 1B

    5. (53) Nick Markakis OF

    6. (68) Andrew McCutchen OF

    7. (77) Josh Johnson SP

    8. (92) Asdrubal Cabrera 2B,SS

    9. (101) Carlos Peña 1B

    10. (116) John Danks SP

    11. (125) Jered Weaver SP

    12. (140) Chipper Jones 3B

    13. (149) Carlos Zambrano SP

    14. (164) Jonathan Sánchez SP

    15. (173) Colby Rasmus OF

    16. (188) Corey Hart OF

    17. (197) Travis Snider OF

    18. (212) Clay Buchholz SP

    19. (221) Brian Matusz SP

    20. (236) Ervin Santana SP

    21. (245) Fernando Rodney RP

    22. (260) Troy Glaus Util

    23. (269) Scott Downs RP

    24. (284) Takashi Saito RP

    25. (293) Sean Rodriguez OF

  64. Maitland says:
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    I posted my team last night here, was wondering if you could answer a followup question. Also, didn’t mention there, but, this is H2H.

    This is my first time playing in a league with LF,CF,RF instead of 3 OFs, and it’s throwing me off a bit.

    I have Adam Jones/Granderson in CF, then Chris Coghlan/Nolan Reimold in LF…should I consider dealing Adam Jones and someone like brett anderson/matt garza for…Raul Ibanez and Josh Beckett?

  65. Ernie says:
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    Grey, this being a top rookies post I had a question about one of last year’s top rookies. A guy in your preseason ranks as a guy you wanted to target. Nolan Reimold. He hasn’t fully recoved from his Achilles injury and seems to be struggling a ton at the plate. Are you concerned? Reason I ask is that I’m contemplating making a move for him because a guy who has him is worried…

  66. Falcon says:
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    Grey,

    You have written posts for the AVG winning stats for standard 12 team 5×5 categories. I have been using this to guide my mock drafts lately, and I LOVE IT. I do have a question:

    How many offensive players are these stats based on? I find I need 12 batters to come close across the board, and obviously I can’t play them all at the same time. Does this mean I suck?

  67. Phillies and Hamels on ESPN if anyones interested. SInce hes on like every single team Ive drafted, Im curious to see how hes throwin.

  68. JRT says:
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    Alright, didn’t think I would to it too, but I am posting my team from a 12 team roto, 6×6 (OPS + Holds) with 7 keepers. Feedback is appreicated.

    C – Martin (235)
    1b – Texeria (k)
    2b – Cano (k)
    SS – Hanley (k)
    3b – Stewart (115)
    MI – Scutaro (211)
    1b/3b – G. Jones (150)
    OF – Bruce (k)
    OF – C. Quentin (91)
    OF – Ibanez (126)
    OF – Car Go (139)
    Util – Rios (174)
    Bench – Maybin (283)

    P – YoGa (k)
    P – Kershaw (102)
    P – Price (k)
    P – Broxton (k)
    P – Marmol (163)
    P – Thornton (187)
    P – Cueto – (198)
    P – N. Feliz (222)
    P – Downs (246)
    P – Bedard (259)
    P – Saito (270)
    P – Morrow (294)
    P – Bailey (305)

  69. Ceasar says:
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    Mr. Grey, on your advice I’m keeping Reynolds over Votto to go with Pujols and Holliday in a 3-keeper, 14-team 6×6 (5×5 + OPS, capped IP) roto.

    Does doing so preclude me from targeting Ian Stewart at second? Would you rather keep Votto to pair with Stewart and limit the batting average damage?

    Thanks.

  70. Through Age 25 G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI K BA SLG SB
    Mark Reynolds 418 1483 247 381 78 8 89 261 556 .257 .500 35
    Player X 465 1531 246 379 73 10 93 266 469 .248 .491 60
    Player X at 26 160 584 112 153 31 4 *38 107 *149 .262 .524 14

  71. Doesn’t parse right but guess who Player X is with his .262 BA 38 HR 107 RBI 14 SB at 26?

  72. Eddy says:
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    @Tony: @ThePoonTycoon:

    Just felt I should throw out there that Grandy went in the 3rd round in my RCL draft yesterday. To say they were drinking his kool-aid is an understatement. I ended up with Bay in round 4 and Cruz is round 5. Werth, Lind, and Granderson were all scooped up in round 3.

  73. @Eddy:

    I’m trying to think up a good strategy for RCL. Like Grey said, tough when everyones got a copy of your cheatsheet. Gonna need to zig when they zag.

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Suck My Wieters: Sure are a lot of categories. You couldn’t work HBPs in? I don’t like your pitching. With those many starter categories, I don’t think Danks is going to be enough of a 2. You do have a few number two’s, but still not crazy about it. Your hitting looks fine, which is the better side to load up on.

    @Maitland: I wouldn’t do that trade.

    @Ernie: I’m slightly worried too, but depends what you’re paying to get him.

    @Falcon: It’s mentioned in the posts the roster.

    @Elijah: Thanks for the heads up!

    @JRT: Good balance of upside guys and vets that you should get a certain amount of stats from. That’s the good. The bad is Scutaro, Martin, which are two things I’m not that worried about, then your pitching is risky.

    @Ceasar: You can go with Reynolds and Stewart. Just know that for the rest of your team.

    ******THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS FOR ME.*****

  75. @Beau:

    Guess you’ve seen it before? In any case the #’s like Reynolds this year. I’ve watched him alot already and no one works harder or wants more to win, I’m sticking with him this year. (Just not before r4-5)

  76. Beau says:
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    @Elijah: No, I hadnt seen it before baseballreference.com just makes all that stuff really easy :)

  77. JoeC says:
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    What is “The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule”? It’s not in the glossary.

  78. mapwheel says:
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    Ian Desmond has at least earned himself some platoon time. I think I read Christian Guzman hurt his shoulder as well, which can only increase Desmond’s stock.

  79. mkuz says:
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    nice list of rookies to target, what do you think of Fernando Martinez for this year?

  80. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mkuz: He could get his own post in the coming days, but right now the Mets are saying he’s going to Triple-A.

  81. VinnieVegas says:
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    Grey, great Lost reference a long with the knowledge.

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