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Finally, we come to the end of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Can we start games already?)  Okay, you know that I like Rickie Weeks better than Howie Kendrick in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010.  You know I like Jay Bruce better than Nolan Reimold as seen at the top 40 outfielders for 2010.  But you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture.  Is Rickie Weeks above Jay Bruce?  Nope.  So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together a 2010 fantasy baseball top 300.  This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  If you have a shortstop already and Andrus is still on the board in the 12th round, you don’t draft him if you see Bruce and you need an outfielder, even though Bruce is below Andrus on this list.  So I might take someone at 200 over someone at 180?  Yes, every draft is different.  With the top 10, there’s almost no latitude.  With the top 100, there’s a bit more.  With a top 300, there’s lots of latitude.  You taking someone at 185 is more or less the same as someone else taking someone at 225.  So if you see someone at 250th, but want them at 200, then do what you do.  Because of the length of the top 300, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  The top 100 and top 300 is what I would have at my drafts, along with the Point Shares and the top 20 rankings posts.  I already went over a top 100 for 2010 Fantasy Baseball, so I’m not going to cover them again.  This top 300 will go from 101 to 300.  Finally, see our list of all players with multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the 2010 fantasy baseball top 300:

100. Johnny Damon – 2010 Projections:  100/20/75/.290/15
101. Nate McLouth – 2010 Projections:  95/20/75/.260/20
102. Hunter Pence – 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15
103. Carlos Marmol – 2010 Projections: 4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves
104. Jose Lopez – 2010 Projections:  75/22/90/.275/3
105. Vladimir Guerrero – 2010 Projections:  70/26/90/.310/3
106. Yovani Gallardo – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.85/1.32/175
107. Jake Peavy
– 2010 Projections:  10-5/3.35/1.15/145
108. Francisco Rodriguez – 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves
109. Joakim Soria – 2010 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves
110. David Aardsma – 2010 Projections:  5-3/3.00/1.20/75, 35 saves
111. Chipper Jones – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5
112. Miguel Montero – 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280
113. Elvis Andrus – 2010 Projections:  80/8/50/.270/37
114. Alexei Ramirez – 2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15
115. Matt Garza – 2010 Projections:  12-9/3.80/1.24/200
116. Jered Weaver – 2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.22/180
117. Jose Valverde – 2010 Projections: 4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves
118. Scott Baker – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.65/1.17/170
119. Andrew McCutchen – 2010 Projections:  90/15/60/.280/30
120. Jay Bruce – 2010 Projections:  80/30/95/.270/7
121. Carlos Gonzalez – 2010 Projections:  85/18/70/.275/20
122. Brian Wilson – 2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves
123. Francisco Cordero – 2010 Projections: 3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves
124. Mike Napoli – 2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5
125. Geovany Soto – 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280
126. Stephen Drew – 2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4
127. Garrett Jones – 2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12
128. Javier Vazquez – 2010 Projections:  15-10/4.15/1.22/200
129. Ryan Dempster – 2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170
130. Roy Oswalt – 2010 Projections:  12-6/3.65/1.22/150
131. Rafael Soriano – 2010 Projections: 2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves
132. Tommy Hanson – 2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175
133. Matt Cain – 2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.25/165
134. A.J. Burnett – 2010 Projections:  16-9/4.05/1.35/200
135. Kevin Slowey – 2010 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.17/165
136. Chris Davis – 2010 Projections:  65/28/85/.255/7
137. Adrian Beltre – 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10
138. Nolan Reimold – 2010 Projections:  85/25/95/.290/10
139. Asdrubal Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  95/8/65/.300/20
140. Billy Wagner – 2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves
141. Clint Barmes – 2010 Projections:  65/15/75/.255/12
142. Rickie Weeks – 2010 Projections:  75/17/55/.255/15
143. David Price – 2o10 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.30/155
144. Michael Cuddyer – 2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5
145. Brad Hawpe – 2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.280
146. Jason Kubel – 2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.285
147. Corey Hart – 2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17
148. Brian Fuentes – 2010 Projections:  2-6/4.00/1.35/45, 32 saves
149. Dexter Fowler – 2010 Projections:  85/10/55/.285/35
150. Andrew Bailey – 2010 Projections: 2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves
151. Ryan Franklin – 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves
152. Leo Nunez – 2010 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/60, 32 saves
153. Frank Francisco – 2010 Projections:  3-3/3.95/1.24/50, 25 saves
154. Mike Gonzalez – 2010 Projections:  1-3/3.15/1.22/70, 20 saves
155. Octavio Dotel – 2010 Projections:  2-4/3.45/1.34/65, 30 saves
156. Michael Bourn – 2010 Projections:  100/4/40/.270/55
157. Johnny Cueto – 2010 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.30/160
158. Clay Buchholz – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155
159. Ervin Santana – 2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185
160. Jorge de la Rosa – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200
161. Nyjer Morgan – 2010 Projections:  105/4/45/.300/45
162. Yunel Escobar – 2010 Projections:  90/15/75/.305/3
163. Miguel Tejada – 2010 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/4
164. J.J. Hardy – 2010 Projections:  65/23/80/.260
165. Rafael Furcal – 2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20
166. Colby Rasmus – 2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14
167. Travis Snider – 2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.265
168. Neftali Feliz – 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120
169. Max Scherzer – 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165
170. James Shields – 2010 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.28/160
171. John Lackey – 2010 Projections:  13-9/3.95/1.29/130
172. Brandon Webb – 2010 Projections:  12-7/3.60/1.28/165
173. Carlos Zambrano – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.35/140
174. Jorge Posada – 2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280
175. Chris Iannetta – 2010 Projections:  50/17/65/.265
176. Phil Hughes – 2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130
177. Joba Chamberlain – 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160
178. Jonathan Sanchez – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200
179. Trevor Hoffman – 2010 Projections:  2-2/3.05/1.12/40, 25 saves
180. Everth Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.260/35
181. Bengie Molina – 2010 Projections:  50/16/65/.270
182. Tim Hudson – 2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145
183. Alcides Escobar – 2010 Projections:  80/5/55/.265/40
184. Rajai Davis – 2010 Projections:  80/4/40/.290/50
185. Julio Borbon – 2010 Projections:  90/8/40/.300/40
186. Juan Pierre – 2010 Projections:  95/1/40/.300/45
187. David Ortiz – 2010 Projections:  70/27/85/.265
188. Ryan Theriot – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22
189. Howie Kendrick – 2010 Projections:  85/12/70/.310/12
190. Cameron Maybin – 2010 Projections:  85/14/50/.285/20
191. Marco Scutaro – 2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7
192. Erick Aybar – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.290/17
193. Jhonny Peralta – 2010 Projections: 75/18/85/.265
194. Ian Desmond – 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20
195. Hideki Matsui – 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.285
196. Bobby Jenks – 2010 Projections: 4-4/4.00/1.30/60, 35 saves
197. Kevin Correia – 2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135
198. Drew Stubbs – 2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35
199. Casey McGehee – 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.280
200. Placido Polanco – 2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/10
201. Felipe Lopez – 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.285/10
202. Chase Headley – 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10
203. Russell Branyan – 2010 Projections:  60/22/70/.240
204. James Loney – 2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4
205. Michael Brantley – 2010 Projections: 55/5/65/.275/30
206. Chris Coghlan – 2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.310/15
207. Franklin Gutierrez – 2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.270/13
208. Paul Konerko – 2010 Projections:  55/24/75/.260
209. Carlos Guillen – 2010 Projections:  75/15/70/.285/6
210. Ryan Ludwick – 2010 Projections:  60/24/85/.270/3
211. Stephen Strasburg – 2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110
212. J.D. Drew – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275
213. Milton Bradley – 2010 Projections:  65/16/70/.280/5
214. Mike Cameron – 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.245/14
215. Magglio Ordonez – 2010 Projections:  75/15/95/.310
216. Edwin Jackson – 2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140
217. Francisco Liriano – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.34/155
218. Joe Blanton – 2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140
219. Krispie Young – 2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15
220. Nick Swisher – 2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255
221. Delmon Young – 2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7
222. Jair Jurrjens – 2010 Projections:  10-9/4.35/1.22/110 in 160 innings
223. Matt Capps – 2010 Projections: 1-5/3.75/1.40/60, 30 saves
224. Chad Qualls – 2010 Projections: 1-3/3.55/1.20/50, 25 saves
225. Brad Lidge – 2010 Projections:  3-4/4.25/1.34/55, 24 saves
226. Kerry Wood – 2010 Projections:  1-3/4.45/1.34/60, 24 saves
227. Brandon Lyon – 2010 Projections:  2-2/3.65/1.28/60, 30 saves
228. Matt Lindstrom – 2010 Projections:  2-5/4.45/1.38/55, 10 saves
229. Ryan Madson – 2010 Projections:  6-3/3.75/1.24/80, 18 saves
230. Lastings Milledge – 2010 Projections:  60/12/70/.265/12
231. Jason Heyward – 2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20
232. Desmond Jennings – 2010 Projections:  75/7/45/.285/25
233. Austin Jackson – 2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22
234. Jason Frasor – 2010 Projections:  6-2/3.65/1.28/60, 15 saves
235. Kyle Blanks – 2010 Projections:  60/30/85/.270/3
236. Matt LaPorta – 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.275
237. Gerardo Parra – 2010 Projections:  75/10/60/.295/10
238. Scott Kazmir – 2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145
239. Michael Saunders – 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.275/15
240. Scott Sizemore – 2010 Projections:  80/14/70/.275/16
241. Brett Anderson – 2010 Projections:  9-11/4.25/1.27/135
242. Ricky Romero – 2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155
243. Randy Wolf – 2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155
244. Ben Sheets – 2010 Projections:  8-9/3.55/1.26/120
245. Rich Harden – 2010 Projections: 7-5/3.75/1.22/130
246. Gavin Floyd – 2010 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.26/175
247. Ramon Hernandez – 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265
248. Eric Young Jr. – 2010 Projections:  65/1/40/.290/30
249. Jorge Cantu – 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280
250. Jermaine Dye - 2010 Projections:  70/22/85/.260
251. Kurt Suzuki – 2010 Projections:  65/12/65/.270/6
252. Martin Prado – 2010 Projections:  70/8/60/.305
253. Yadier Molina – 2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5
254. A.J. Pierzynski – 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280
255. Ryan Doumit – 2010 Projections:  50/16/60/.280/3
256. Orlando Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  80/10/75/.275/15
257. Mark DeRosa – 2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3
258. Todd Helton – 2010 Projections: 70/12/80/.315
259. John Danks – 2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155
260. Derek Lowe – 2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100
261. J.A. Happ – 2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155
262. Rick Porcello – 2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75
263. Daisuke Matsuzaka – 2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150
264. Joel Pineiro – 2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90
265. Mark Buehrle – 2010 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.25/125
266. Kelly Johnson – 2010 Projections:  85/15/65/.270/10
267. Huston Street – 2010 Projections:  3-3/3.85/1.22/40, 15 saves
268. Manny Corpas – 2010 Projections:  2-4/4.35/1.32/45, 15 saves
269. Seth Smith – 2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.290/10
270. Jake Fox – 2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250
271. Jon Rauch – 2010 Projections:  3-5/4.15/1.28/55, 25 Saves
272. Wade Davis – 2010 Projections:  8-10/3.75/1.34/160
273. Chris Tillman – 2010 Projections:  7-12/3.65/1.32/150
274. Brain Matusz – 2010 Projections:  6-9/3.75/1.30/145
275. Mat Latos – 2010 Projections:  6-7/4.15/1.32/125
276. Andy LaRoche – 2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3
277. Brandon Wood – 2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7
278. Matt Guerrier – 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.75/1.20/60, 15 Saves
279. Scott Downs – 2010 Projections:  5-4/3.85/1.30/40, 12 saves
280. Chris Young – 2010 Projections:  7-10/4.00/1.28/145
281. Hiroki Kuroda – 2010 Projections: 9-6/3.65/1.24/100
282. Franklin Morales – 2010 Projections: 4-5/4.50/1.40/55, 8 saves
283. Aaron Harang – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.35/155
284. Bronson Arroyo – 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140
285. Brad Penny – 2010 Projections:  13-10/4.40/1.37/110
286. Brandon Morrow – 2010 Projections:  10-7/3.85/1.40/100
287. Homer Bailey – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.40/145
288. Ted Lilly – 2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100
289. Aroldis Chapman – 2010 Projections: 5-3/3.75/1.37/70
290. Randy Wells – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.25/130
291. Justin Masterson – 2010 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.34/150
292. Erik Bedard – 2010 Projections:  3-5/3.55/1.28/85
293. Kelly Shoppach – 2010 Projections:  55/16/65/.245
294. Miguel Olivo – 2010 Projections:  30/16/45/.245
295. Jesus Flores – 2010 Projections:  55/15/65/.250
296. Vernon Wells – 2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10
297. Jeff Francoeur – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275/5
298. Juan Rivera – 2010 Projections:  65/24/75
299. Cody Ross – 2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/5/.280
300. Russell Martin – 2010 Projections:  70/10/60/.280/10

From Around The Web

  1. Nick says:
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    Just wondering why you have Tommy Hanson so much lower than many other projection sites (okay, I guess I’m just thinking about ESPN). Is there something you are seeing and they’re not? Is it an innings pitched thing?

  2. maddogrusso says:
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    any reason Cutch is ranked so low? soley position based? he won’t last that long and won’t he be awesome this year?

    also, someone in my league is trying to convince me neftali feliz will possibly be in the pen this year. he is lying to me right?

  3. Levo says:
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    Am I correct to assume from your Peavy comments and projections that your expecting a DL stint at some point? I cant help but think theres a good chance of him staying healthy and returning to top 10 sp form. He seemed ok at the end of the year. The alternative is projecting Garza/Weaver/Baker taking a step forward. This is gonna be a tough choice.

    Nice job with the rankings, keep up the good work.

  4. brett says:
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    @Stephen: Do you agree with Grey’s assessment of Brandon Wood? I was planning on not bothering, but if Yahoo gives him SS eligibility I may have to reconsider.

  5. brett says:
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    Also – Great work, Grey. These are going straight into all my draft boards after a few tweaks for personal preference.

  6. Joe B says:
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    Hmmmm… I would have a tough time deciding between McCutchen, Bruce, and Gonzalez as they are back to back to back in these rankings. I’ve been waiting for the Dread Pirate to make it to the bigs and last year we saw what he can do, but Escargot My CarGo has 25/25 potential, especially in Coors. Bruce intrigues me though because 30 HR in the middle rounds with upside is tough to pass up. Who do you think will have the bigger year of these guys and provide the least risk?

  7. Clyde Prompto says:
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    Howdy, Grey. As an owner of Brett Anderson in an AL-Only keeper leauge, your projections for him worry me a bit. Is the innings jump your main concern w/him?

  8. Josh says:
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    I can see you had a change of heart on Michael Bourn. He’s going 5th or 6th round on MDC, which seems crazy high to me considering his BA last year very well could have been a fluke.

  9. brett says:
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    @Joe B: I’m fighting the same battle. If i had to draft today, i’m taking Bruce over Gonzalez because of his projected power (but i’m almost hoping the guy in front of me makes up my mind for me).

    I like McCutchen as much as either of them, but he’s a different set of needs. And i would gladly draft two of the three. Especially McCutch and one of the other guys.

  10. eltoo says:
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    Now that the 5th starting spot is supposedly his to lose, was Bumgarner on the bubble to make the top 300?

  11. Nate Marcum says:
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    I am really banking on people sleeping a little on Scott Baker after last year’s “Who wants to hit a home-run off of me” contest he had. My personal opinion is that the new stadium mixed with the cold weather to begin and end the season will lower that ridonkulously high hr/fb rate and drop him down to about where your projections are, hopefully a little lower.

    Grey, what type of impact do you think the new stadium will have on both pitchers and hitters alike?

  12. Marqo says:
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    Juan Pierre hitting 1 HR ???

    HOW????

  13. Steve-0 says:
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    Grey,
    Will you post a full pdf. link of your rankings. I want to use it as a draft board. Any chances of that happening?

  14. Eric says:
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    How is Ryan Dempster ranked ahead of Javier Vazquez and Tommy Hanson? Based on your own projected stats, Hanson and Vazquez would be more valuable. In fact, you have Hanson projected better than Dempster at every single pitching stat.

    Am I misunderstanding these rankings?

    131. Ryan Dempster – 2010 Projections: 13-8/3.90/1.28/170
    134. Tommy Hanson – 2010 Projections: 14-6/3.75/1.20/175
    135. Javier Vazquez – 2010 Projections: 15-10/4.15/1.22/200

  15. Obligatory Sox Fan says:
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    I wonder if you would make a post comparing difference in your top 300 to mock draft’s ADP as a way to highlight values and, uhh, non-values.

    Like pointing out that Octavio Dotel’s ADP is 273, and you value him around a 158 pick, a +115 difference. Or that Matt Cain is -52.

    It would make a good list of targets for draft day.

  16. Frank Rizzo says:
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    This is just great stuff Grey. Thanks, as always.

    Anyone transfer this to an Excel Spreadsheet? How did it come out?

  17. sean says:
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    @Joe B: It all has to do with the composition of your team by the time you get there. If you drafted more speed than power, you’d want to take Bruce. If you drafted more power than speed, you’d want to take McCutchen. And if you’ve stayed pretty balanced, I think Gonzalez’s 15/15 base is a good fit.

    Obviously there’s some risk tied to all of these players. McCutchen is probably the safest bet to reproduce his 2009 numbers, but you know what they say about the sophomore season. Bruce is coming off of a wrist injury, which could mean trouble for a power hitter, but he’s in a decent lineup in a launching pad park and he has a world of talent. Gonzalez showed what he can do with some playing time, but its a crowded outfield in Colorado. If he wins a job coming out of spring training, a slump or a slow start could mean struggling to get consistent playing time again.

  18. Tarasco'sSecretStash says:
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    @ Nate: I’m also curious about this because of a similar interest in Slowey this year. Minneapolis is one of the windiest cities in America, and given how the stadium’s situated geographically the summer winds should be blowing out to right-center for the majority of the home schedule. But as you note that should be offset be the colder temperatures. My guess is we see some interesting splits and ultimately a stadium that plays fairly similar to the Metrodome. The Twins’ signing of Thome might suggest that they expect a decent RCF power alley.

    @ Grey: Thanks for these rankings. There’s some mediocre business at the bottom of that pile.

  19. Cheez Whit says:
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    Great stuff as always!!! Do you ever do auction values for any of your rankings? I have yet to find a decent site with semi decent auction values.

    Also, thought Miguel Montero was a bit high. I own him for $10 and was planning on tossing him back.

  20. Big Mike says:
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    I’d love to see a top 100 pertaining only to keeper leagues. Who’s the better keeper of David Price, Strasburg, or Brett Anderson?

  21. sean says:
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    @Nate Marcum: Weather can be strange. THT took a look at it here a while back: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/temperature-effects/

    I’d agree generally with what was said. Cold weather tends to favor pitching if for no other reason than it depresses power. It’s awfully hard to compress the ball and get it to travel in cold weather. However, finesse pitchers tend to struggle in cold weather because they depend on feel.

    Baker’s a four-pitch pitcher (fastball 63% (almost always a four-seamer), slider 18%, changeup 10%, and curve 9%) with a tendency to give up fly balls (58%). His strikeout numbers are above league average (7.29 K/9 in 2009; 6.88 career) and he has terrific control (2.16 BB/9 in 2009; 2.05 career).

    His penchant for control and the lack of giddy-up on his fastball (90-92 mph) lead me to believe that the cold weather could adversely affect his strikeout and walk numbers in the early season. However, the weather should also protect him from his biggest weakness — the gopher ball (1.26/9 in 2009; 1.14 career).

    All in all, I don’t think that park or weather should play out too much for Baker. I think fly balls will get knocked down at a higher rate outdoors in the cold. He gives up more fly balls. It will be cold on the bookends of the season in Minnesota. Still, he’s probably not far off from the 180-200 IP, 10-12 W, high 3s-low 4s ERA, 150-160Ks guy that most systems project. Much like his real world performance, Baker is solid but unspectacular.

  22. 40 2/5. Rajai Davis – Too many speed schmohawks and not enough space. 2010 Projections: 80/4/40/.290/50

    VS

    6. Jacoby Ellsbury –. 2010 Projections: 105/10/65/.300/60

    I SEE THERE IS NO NEED TO DRAFT ELSBURY – THERE IS MUCH SPEED LATER ON IN THE DRAFT

    Hey Gray who would be your top 2 speed guys in the outfield you can get cheap instead of Ellsbury

  23. matthole says:
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    @mrbaseball: agreed, noticed that too. seem like a good strategy would be to go for power early and get speed with mi sagnof’s and a possibly use the 5th OF slot w/a Sagnof…..looks like a bunch of 30+ SB guys like pierre, fowler, stubbs, davis, brantley can be had late. And guys like maybin, heyward, jennings are projected to have 20+…not too many power guys are listed here…..hideki matsui?

  24. Tea for Tillman will have competition in rotation

    Manager Dave Trembley told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com that there will be competition for the fifth spot in the rotation, possibly leaving Chris Tillman in the minors to start the season.

    “Tillman is going to be a great young pitcher,” said Trembley. “But things happen. Unfortunately, guys get hurt or the 12 pitchers you start the season with on your pitching staff usually aren’t the 12 that you end up with. There are things that happen throughout the season. So we’ll see what happens in spring training. We’ll try to get guys in as many games as we can, give them innings, and may the best 12 go with us.” Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen and Brian Matusz figure to have the first four spots in the rotation, while Tillman, Jason Berken, David Hernandez, Troy Patton and Jake Arrieta will at least get a look during camp

  25. closer look –

    outfielder look ( speed )

    12 Salads -Jacoby Ellsbury

    Donkey-corns-Rajai Davis

  26. brett says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: Works pretty smoothly if you’re familiar with using delimiters. There’s some work involved in separating pitchers and hitters but i don’t think it would be too hard (at worst you’d just have to do it manually)

  27. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @brett: thanks Brett.

  28. Bob says:
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    @Grey: Under SAGNOF, what round do you start drafting saves?

    Under SAGNOF, what round do you starting drafting pure speed?

  29. Griff says:
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    What do you guys think of Porcello? I’ve been looking at him as one of those big-upside guys that you can get late. Grey seems to be way down on him–only 75 Ks? Is he on this year’s risky pitchers list or something?

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Nick: Yeah, I went over him in the top 40 SP rankings.

    @maddogrusso: McCutchen will be solid, but it was hard to move him up. There were a bunch of guys I needed to get in there. Feliz might be in the pen, will be decided in the spring.

    @Levo: Yeah, I don’t trust Peavy to stay healthy the whole year.

    @Joe B: McCutchen

    @Clyde Prompto: Yup

    @GopherDay: Thanks for the heads up!

    @eltoo: Yeah, and like I said there’s latitude the later you get. Bumgarner at 260 and 310 are basically the same thing.

    @Nate Marcum: People thought Metco was going to be a hitter’s stadium before the 1st game played, so I have no idea. My assumption is it would be more pitcher friendly.

    @Marqo: Hehe

    @Steve-0: I would think you’d be able to Save As a .pdf. I’m pretty computer stupid though.

    @Eric: The other two have more risk.

    @Obligatory Sox Fan: Something along those lines is coming later today.

    @Tarasco’sSecretStash: There sure is.

    @Cheez Whit: Rudy’s Point Shares has auction values.

    @Big Mike: Price

    @mrbaseball: Pierre and Borbon…

    @mrbaseball: Thanks for the heads up on Tillman!

    @Bob: I’d take a closer in the 7th to 8th rounds. Speed I rarely draft by itself unless it’s at MI. I would take Everth Cabrera around the 200th pick.

    @Griff: He had a K-rate of 4.69. That’s terrible.

  31. sean says:
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    @Griff: 4.69 K/9 and a 4+ ERA means a lot of 5.2 IP, 3ER, 3K starts. Not really helping anyone win a title…

  32. Tony says:
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    vlad and chipper ahead of bruce, cargo, and mccutchen? The 3 youngsters are going in the 8th, 9th, and 10th rounds…. I wouldnt take chipper or Vlad in the 15th. I try not to infest my team with old, festering bags of puss….

    Seems a little whacky grey? So are you saying bruce, cargo, and Mccutchen are going TOO early in drafts OR Vlad and Chipper should go in the 8-9th rounds OR they’re going too late OR ???

    ORRRRR? WWGD…… what would grey do?

  33. Tony says:
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    and grey i know you’re not saying you’d take vlad or chipper there, but i’m a little unsure of the rankings here….

  34. Bob says:
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    @Grey: Regarding saves, that’s interesting. I always thought under SAGNOF that you’d wait until the 11th or 12th and try to get somebody like Heath Bell, Soria or Valverde who are elite (or just below), but slip, because they are on yawnstipating teams or sucked the year before. I’m seeing Joe Nathan occasionally slip to the 7th this year, and that seems like a bargain to me, especially given who is usually sitting next to him on the board.

  35. majortommy says:
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    I love your site and respect your opinion, especially when held up against other sites. And I certainly appreciate how hard it is to make a ranking system and please everyone. Players fall through cracks etc. etc.(haha this is like one of those phrases where you say, not to sound like a dick, but (insert sound like a dick phrase)
    I cannot get over your fondness for David Aardsma. Just going out on a limb and saying you picked him up off of waivers last year and he propelled you towards a championship. So much in the way a player burns an owner and they will never touch him again(Yeah I am talking about you Chris Davis) you feel some sort of debt to repay to Aardsma.
    Is that it?

  36. peter says:
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    Granted, The Razzball Braintrust is quite likely looking at other factors, but I’m not sure how I feel about placing Alcides Escobar over Everth Cabrera.

    Yes, I like the name Alcides more than Everth, too. Also, Escobar has a better contact rate.

    But Cabrera walks more, has shown more speed in the minors, will be hitting at the top of the order, and the Padres will/should be aggressive on the basepaths.

    Whereas Escobar could very well be hitting lower in the order if Weeks is still #1. And Macha, as I recall, is pretty conservative about letting his players run.

    Even in my mind, the differences are muted by how similar the guys are. But I’m pretty sure I like Cabrera’s situation more (since I’d be picking him up for speed).

  37. peter says:
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    @majortommy: Grey’s got Aardsma ranked as the 17th closer. I don’t necessarily think this makes Grey “high” on Aardsma. But since no one else (other ‘perts, managers, etc.) trusts him (Aardsma), and he’s not a name, you can probably get good value. Predicting an ERA in the low 3’s is reasonable.

  38. pwire says:
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    Grey,
    Curious about a couple of things:
    1) Brett Anderson’s lower ranking than ADP…
    2) Kuroda got skipped over in the top 300 but you had him ranked below Chris Young and above Harang in your SP Blog… unless I typed it in wrong.
    3) Danks and Floyd… are you down on them? Your rank is much lower than their ADP’s
    4) Vernon Wells: I know we all are sour on him, but 296 really?
    5) Jose Lopez at 105… To me, this makes him a sleeper… Can you give me more of your insight about him.
    6) Vlad Guerrero at 106 seems like you really do expect him to bounce back… Is this because of the way he hits in that park?
    7) Fowler vs. Morgan: what is your argument there

    I may have more, but these were my initial thoughts…

  39. majortommy says:
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    @peter: he has him as the #9 closer sandwiched between Soria and Valverde

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: You have to remember guys I have much later than they would go — Manny, for instance. So if you take guys off the board because I won’t own them, I’m going to end up going for a Bruce or McCutchen. Plus, my commentary on each player is meant to lead you through. If I like a player, I like him. What’s the difference between picks 90 and 120? Same difference if you need an outfielder and I’ve said I like him.

    @Bob: I’d love to take Bell in the 12th round. I simply said I’d draft a closer in the 7th to 8th rounds. Meaning, I’d grab Nathan around pick 90 if he were still there. But he won’t be. I believe he’s around a 70 ADP. So value is still value. At 90, that’s value. As I said in the closer rankings, I’m shooting for 120 saves at the end of the draft. Really I could’ve listed 20 closers together at pick 170 and said grab three of them. Closers are closers as saves are saves.

    @majortommy: No problem. re: Aardsma — He has a solid K-rate. I look for that first with a closer. Once that’s good, I think about the team. His team should give him saves. Then I think about the likelihood he’ll lose the job. I don’t think Aardsma will. Seems pretty safe.

  41. peter says:
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    @majortommy: Darn tootin, you’re right! I was looking at the wrong spreadsheet. Mea Culpa.

    So, yes, I think 9 is high, too. But, looking at the guys who come after Aardsma on the list, I can kind of see it: I don’t trust Brian Wilson, guys like Street/Soriano/Wagner are greater injury risks, and everyone after that isn’t necessarily a lock for the job.

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @pwire: 1. Worried about innings. 2. He just missed the 300. There was just too many guys because I had to move lots of closers in. 3. I don’t usually draft AL pitchers late, so they need to fall a bit. 4. I don’t want him near any of my teams. 5. He hit 25 homers last year and nearly 100 RBIs. At 2nd base, that’s not bad. He’s just not very exciting. 6. I think he can give 70/26/90/.310/3. Those are Carlos Lee numbers without outfield eligibility. 7. Not sure what you mean. One can hit homers, one can’t. One has more speed. You draft the one you need for your team. If you need more speed, than Morgan’s the better pick.

  43. majortommy says:
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    @peter: I don’t hate Aardsma, I just don’t like him in that spot. It will be interesting to see how many people read Razzball by where he is drafted in Mocks and what not I do.

  44. mikey boy324 says:
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    grey being that you wait till the 7th-8th rounds for a closer who usually winds up being your first closer?

  45. Nate Marcum says:
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    @sean: Thanks for all the interesting feedback guys. I think it is great that a question like mine doesn’t only get answered with a simple response, it gets broken down in multiple ways.

    Something else that I have noticed since I started reading this blog is that not a single person on here has written, “First”, or any other douchbag type response to the articles. Thank you fellow razzball readers for being the best commenters on the interweb and thanks Grey for allowing us to comment on informative and helpful articles.

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mikey boy324: I’d like it to be Bell. But I imagine it will be Aardsma.

    @Nate Marcum: Yeah, we have the best commenters.

  47. majortommy says:
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    @Nate Marcum: Got a feeling that all of that will change. Eventually this site will become what everything else that starts off cool and hip becomes once the masses get their hands on it. Like a band you love until you hear their music on a commercial and your 12 year old neice has them on her I-Pod. Enjoy it while it lasts my friends.

  48. sean says:
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    @Nate Marcum: Other than the sheer fact that Grey and Rudy’s insight is better than what some competitors offer for “paid” content, the best part of this place is that the frequent commenters are generally well informed, intelligent, and articulate folks. Combine that with a zeal for fantasy baseball and it’s an awesome combination. Definitely the first thing I look forward to doing when I check my computer in the morning…

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Martin: Yeah, as I said in the mocking the ESPN mock, I thought Cockcroft did a good job.

  50. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    @Grey: You consistently mention that even in the top 100, there’s really only about 20 guys you would own. I can pin point a few just from players comments, but others I’m not 100% sure about. Is there any blog in the near future that you will post that will just be a list of names you will draft? I think it would benefit everyone, and be greatly appreciated by the community. You wouldn’t have to rank them, just a list would suffice. What are your thoughts? Thanks.

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Cheese: I was thinking I would do that. Then I was thinking I would write that post and draft, say, Nathan, and he wouldn’t be on my list and people would have a conniption. Because really I try to draft value. I wouldn’t own, say, Nathan, unless he fell far enough. So in reality, I would only own about 20 or so players if things play out how I would expect them. Maybe I’ll write that post with those caveats.

  52. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    @Grey: 100% agree with your worry there. You would definitely need a disclaimer lol. I was actually looking at a mock draft done by “experts” and Nathan was the first RP off the board at a pick in the mid 90s. I see value there. But anyways, it would definitely be a good read, and may have more value than the actual top 300 rankings. I’m sure if it came down to it, with your 2nd pick in a draft, and you wanted an OF, and you could choose between Crawford, Ellsbury and J Upton, I see you taking Upton almost every time, even though you have him ranked behind those 2. With some of the comments I’ve read, I’ve noticed that some readers are confused with your rankings because you bash certain players, yet still rank them kind of high. Having a list could potentially clear that all up. Anyways, just some food for thought.

  53. Stephen says:
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    @brett: Brett you said, “Do you agree with Grey’s assessment of Brandon Wood? I was planning on not bothering, but if Yahoo gives him SS eligibility I may have to reconsider.”

    This is Grey’s line; 279 – B.Wood: 60/25/75/.250/7

    I play in a 20 team league, and this would be awesome value if I didn’t get Wright, Longoria or A-Rod. Grey ranked Ian Stewart at 100 with a possible line of: 85/29/100/.260/10; in 12 team leagues, you can get similar power potential 12 rounds later. Sure Stewart can play second, but he can also play third. Honestly, if he gets SS eligibility, you almost have to own him. Even if he is just given third base, that would be great value in the mid to late rounds. Wood doesn’t have the job security, but the power potential is way more valuable in Wood’s ADP (or rankings) than where Stewart is now going. That is just my opinion. There is definitely much more risk relying on Wood, but the rewards definitely out weight the risks.

    @sean: Could say it any better. Us commentators (and Grey) don’t return to middle school when people disagree with their thoughts or opinions. There is always great discussions, tips, and breaking news. Sure beats Yahoo’s “First” comments and ESPN’s religion people don’t critically analyze.

  54. Stephen says:
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    @Stephen: @sean: Meant to say “Couldn’t say it any better.” My bad.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @IowaCubs: Ha, nice link. That alone gets Branyan above LaRoche.

  56. brett says:
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    @Stephen: Thanks. I agree with you on the power potential. The only reason i might pass on Wood at 3B is that I’m hoping to have the position locked up long before it’s time to draft him and there’s a growing list of guys at other positions that i want in the late rounds. But that makes a lot of sense, especially in a league with a CI spot.

  57. Steve says:
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    @IowaCubs: @Grey: That looks more like a party of two in his basement rec room.

  58. Pat says:
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    Great lists Grey,
    Now can you please rank MLB umpires, bat boys, and players’ wives?

  59. Orangeman94 says:
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    Mark Kotsay’s wife = #1 draft pick

  60. Spamcakes says:
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    Niemann?

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Spamcakes: A mid-to-low 4 ERA in the AL East didn’t make the cut for me.

  62. papasmurf says:
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    I am going with your list this year, Grey! Since I stink at drafting.

  63. jamesllegade says:
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    Bless you Grey.

    You know what I would love to see? The biggest “under ranks” on yahoo default.

    Usually it is RP’s that win the closing job late but last year you gave me Pablo Sandoval and he was ranked in the 200’s on yahoo default.

    I know a lot of people use yahoo and a lot of leagues have dudes just staring at the default for their next pick. We must take advantage of this.

  64. Big Mike says:
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    I see #22 Justin Morneau and #29 Ryan Zimmerman. Looking at their projections, Morneau gives you two more HR, but Zimm beats him by 5 steals, 10 runs, and 5 points of average (and plays a shallower position). So why the love for Morneau over Zimm?

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Mike: Morneau’s slightly safer. Zimm does have more upside though, so I’m not opposed to Zimm before Morneau if someone wanted to go that way.

  66. Brian says:
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    I’m taking Ludwick around pick 150. You have him ranked at 213 with projections that include less RBI than he had last year, yet he’s now batting behind Pujols and Holliday. I respect your analysis, so I’m wondering if maybe you have some concerns about Ludwick this season? I was thinking that his spot in that order would boost his RBI numbers. Was it that his avg. with runners in scoring position last year was a little unrealistic and will undoubtedly dip this season?

    I appreciate your insight, because I’ve been drafting him a lot in my mock drafts. Thanks!

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian: Ludwick was barely ownable last year in 12 team leagues. I think he can be better but he’s not exactly an upstart rookie.

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