2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Companion Piece
February 09, 2010
Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft
One recurring question regarding my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings is why do I have so and so above so and so if I say I like the second so and so better than the first so and so? Okay, so I’ve never received that exact question, because that’s massively confusing. Here’s a variation of the so and so question that you might actually recognize. If you look at my top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post, I have Scott Sizemore below Crapolanco. But I also say in that post how I wouldn’t own Crapolanco. So I’d take Sizemore before Crapolanco? Yes and no. I’d wait until Polanco was drafted, then I’d draft Sizemore. Why exactly? That late in a draft I’m going with upside over the predictable. Then why not just put Sizemore above Crapolanco? A few reasons: 1) If I only ranked players I’d own, there would be maybe a 100 total guys across all rankings. 2) Crapolanco does have value. His preseason value is above Sizemore. Crapolanco has less risk, but, as previously mentioned, I don’t want less risk that late. Some drafters may. 3) Sizemore may not even have the value I’m giving him there. He’s a risky upside pick. I’m putting him in the rankings so you know I like someone. I’m putting flashing lights around a player’s name in the player blurb.
There was more I wanted to say on point 3, but I was beaten by Ron Shandler. And, hey, when you’re beaten by Shandler, you take your noogies. This article he wrote last year has so many great points I suggest you read it yourself, but I’m going to highlight a quote that I think pertains:
“…when our projection says $27, it is intended solely to make you say $22 when the bidding stops at $21 (assuming the context of normal market conditions). If we had published a projection of $23 or $24, that’s not enough of a psychological push for you to take that last leap of faith.”
This is what I’m doing with certain projections. I’m attempting to push you towards certain players. It’s why you see my Ian Stewart projections are way above any other ‘perts. I might be wrong on Stewart, but I’m pushing you towards him. But then Jose Lopez is above Ian Stewart in the rankings? Yeah, but he’s in a tier called, “Boring.” My commentary is as important as the actual rankings. So do you want boring or risk and upside and maybe downside? These are decisions you have to make for your own team. (Oh, and you’ll see Stewart’s actually above Lopez in the top 100 and top 300 because of the 3rd base eligibility. How’s that for further confusion?)
It’s why I have Jonathan Sanchez ranked below Lackey but his projections say he’ll be better. I think Sanchez will be better, but he has more risk. It’s a limb. You need to know how many limbs you’re going out on. A few per team is fine. If every player on your team is a limb, your team is tipping over.
It’s why I said Carlos Quentin was a sleeper. He’s being drafted 102nd overall on average. You can wait until the 8th round and get value. You don’t need to draft him in the 5th like I have in my rankings. I am highlighting him. You need to know where guys are actually being drafted. You need to read the blurbs I have next to the players. You need to know what tiers you want to draft from.
If you believe Brandon Webb is healthy and will be back to the dominant pitcher he’s always been, you could be right. Right now, his ADP is 127 right behind Wandy. I’m not taking on that risk for where Webb’s being drafted. I’ll take a starter who actually was good last year vs. a starter that was injured for the entire year.
As said in the rankings post, there’s latitude amongst the rankings. I’d say the top 20 have a latitude of around a +/- 2. The top 50 around a +/- 10; the top 100 around a +/- 20, the top 150 with a +/- 40. And so on. The most important part of the rankings is my commentary. If I like a guy, I’d reach for him in certain circumstances. If I need an outfielder who gives me a 15/30 year, then I’m taking Andrew McCutchen. I would draft him 90th overall even though I have him at 120th. Each team is different. The rankings are meant to be a jumping off point with my commentary and projections telling you where I stand.
Tags: 2010 fantasy baseball, 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball rankings
February 9th, 2010 at 11:06 am
awesome work grey…
thanks for being you.
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February 9th, 2010 at 11:35 am
You said you would only draft about 100 of the 300-400 players – so that gave me an idea to give to you for your next post. The only 100 players Grey would draft.
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February 9th, 2010 at 11:37 am
Great piece. One question though. You have Guerrero at 106. You’ve claimed to not draft UTIL players. MDC has Guerrero going at 130 on average. So, say its around pick 130 in the draft, do you actually see value in Guerrero at that point?
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@PJtres: Thanks!
@GTS: I’m going to do a top 20 guys from the top 100 that I’d own. We’ll go from there.
@Cheese: I’m not thrilled about it because of the eligibility, but it seems like I might be owning Vlad this year if he’s going that low.
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February 9th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
@Grey: Holy cow grey… my head just spun around twice… I think i’m going to kind of disregard all these ranks LOL, they’re good, kinda makes sense what you’re saying just confusing, i know who you like, who i like, where i’d take them, where they go…. its all good.
On another note: How much do you look at the # of doubles a guy hits turning into HR’s?
I know its an indicator alot of people look at, but then there’s always that guy like RIOS, Markakis, etc that don’t do what people are projecting….
Do you just have to look at the guys fly ball rate? HR rate? If the doubles were line drives or off the wall moon shots?
Are doubles in your mind any kind of indicator power is coming…. a la Aaron Hill 2007….. boom in 2009.
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February 9th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
Well said Grey.
It’s helpful to think of the rankings as something that evolves as the draft goes. If you draft a top 1B in the first round, then it drops the value of all other 1B in the projections… the same goes with any position. Certainly, there are times when you just take the best player available (If I draft Pujols, but then come pick 24 Ryan Howard is still available, then I’ll take Howard)
Not an engraved in stone document, but more a helpful “guide”. Having ADP numbers next to a ranking system would show you where the value picks will take place.
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February 9th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Grey,
A great little exposition of the subjective vs. objective aspects of fantasy rankings. I can not wait for fantasy baseball to get started again this year. Long Live Razzball and Long Live Mustaches!!!
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February 9th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
Tony-
) that doubles wouldn’t be as good of an indicator as FB% or LD%.
I would think (could probably prove it if pushed
Doubles could occur in a variety of circumstances…but 1 key part of a double is that the fielder must not catch it. Hence, 5 warning track fly outs for a 25 year old kid wouldn’t show up in the doubles column, but certainly would in FB%. Those would probably turn into home runs when the player gets a little older and stronger.
I think a double could be a rough indicator, but probably not the best indicator.
If there were a power statistic available that tracked how far a player hits the ball (kind of like how they track fielder outs when calculating UZR) then that would be best. I typically would look at LD% and FB%.
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February 9th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
Grey, that Shandler article was bomb. Glad I could send it to you and have it utilized by thousands. A bit lengthy and technical, but stellar nonetheless. Sometimes I feel we read rankings too much as a concrete tablet of information and not necessarily as a malleable and continuously working document. Rankings should be more a guideline and less absolute authority. We, as fantasy players just need to live and let live with the many variables each individual draft has and allow for a bit of ambiguity within a working document/guideline.
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February 9th, 2010 at 12:29 pm
Rob Neyer wrote a decent piece about Metco
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/2310/mets-home-just-a-tiny-bit-cozier-in-2010
Note how there are five other NL parks that averaged fewer home runs than Metco. The Mets were just terrible home run hitters last year.
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February 9th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
Thanks for clarifying Grey.
This just in……the A’s release Willy Taveras. I’m lol’ing.
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@Tony: I agree with Anthony. Doubles aren’t bad but they don’t tell the whole picture. Brian Roberts gets a lot of doubles, doesn’t mean he’s going to explode for 40 homers. That’s why I’m a bit more lukewarm on Butler. His doubles really aren’t saying to me this guy is going to hit 35 homers.
@Stephen: Well said comment and thanks for passing on that article.
@Stephen: Interesting read on Metco.
@Frank Rizzo: Ha!
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February 9th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
This is the best thing in that whole shandler article:
Baseball Variation of Harvard Law: Under the most rigorously observed conditions of skill, age, environment, statistical rules and other variables, a ballplayer will perform as he damn well pleases.
It was a great article, and understandable to a certain extent, just goes to show no matter what you think the %’s of it happening are about a coin toss….
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February 9th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
@Tony: I liked this rule/law the most:
“Occam’s Razor: When you have two competing theories which make exactly the same predictions, the one that is simpler is preferred.”
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February 9th, 2010 at 1:38 pm
Grey,
Why are you so anti Aramis Ramirez? If youre throwing him under the bus because of injuries I dont believe thats fair. I wouldnt call him injury prone, and its not like hes really that old. The guy still had potential to hit 30 Hrs and drive in 115 plus.
Here are games played by year. If you call this injury prone, slap me silly!
2003: 159
2004: 145
2005: 123 (injury year, but could be worse)
2006: 157
2007: 132
2008: 149
2009: 82 (Obviously his most injury plagued year, but he had a major injury)
Based off his position alone, I feel he should be placed right around the top 50 mark.
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@SuckMyWieters: That’s 3 of the last 5 years that he’s been under 135 games. That’s not exactly an iron man. At 32, which he’ll be, hitters don’t usually get better. He hasn’t hit over 30 homers since 2006. So let’s say, 27/100/.300. That’s good, but I’d prefer a 30/15 outfielder with, say, Nelson Cruz over that at 3rd base.
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February 9th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
grey…in a keeper league
would you rather have the
hanley/rickynolasco/16th round pick
or the
Howard/Tulo
Side of the trade?
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
@Grey: I didnt necessarily say he was an Iron man, I understand hell need his days off… I just wouldnt call him injury prone. Call me crazy, but I see him refreshed this season and I wont go as far as saying 30 Hrs, but I see 25+. Lets not forget, he is one of the most clutch hitters in the game, I see him 115+ rbi’s. The 3B position in thin, and I still believe hes one of the better hitters out there.
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@donniebball: Howard/Tulo…But it’s pretty fair.
@SuckMyWieters: I do agree he tends to rack up the RBIs, but RBIs are also a tough thing to project, so I tend to devalue them a bit.
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
@SuckMyWieters: You’re right that third base is thin, which is why his value/ADP isn’t worth more than his numbers will be.
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
@SuckMyWieters: like you just said for 2009, HE HAD A MAJOR INJURY… just take a 3B early and then you dont have to worry about Aramis Staying healthy…
My cutoff is Kung Fu Panda… after that I dont want anyone, and as much as I like Stewart, I dont want him as my sole 3B.
I hate 3B.
And SS.
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
@Tony: Cant, its a keeper league… He will be most likely the best 3B available.
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@Tony: Check your email.
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
Is Kemp highly overrated, or is Werth really underrated?
According to ESPN, Werth was slightly more valuable than Kemp in 2009.
Are we expecting that much more progression from Kemp, figuring that Werth will slip, or do these rankings over-value speed a bit? Or maybe it’s just Matt Kemp Love (to the tune of “West End Girls”).
I’m not sure Kemp will hit more HRs than Werth, unless they played in the same park. Best case might be they hit the same HRs. So you’re essentially taking Kemp in the 1st round for the diff. in SBs.
If you had the #8 pick, wouldn’t you be better off if you took a Prince, Reyes, and Werth-type trifecta with your first 3 picks, instead of Kemp, Reyes, and a V-Mart type at 1B?
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
@Shmorgie S. Board: ESPN really likes speed and pitchers.
Did anyone else notice that Brandon Funston (Yahoo’s second best fantasy Writer and on the Fantasy Sports Writers of America Board of Directors) posted his Big Board about a month ago:
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news?slug=bf-bigboard-baseball
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Oh, and Jacque Jones returns to the Twins:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-twins-jones&prov=ap&type=lgns
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@Shmorgie S. Board: I’d say a few things are going on with Werth vs. Kemp. Kemp’s going up, Werth is probably stabilizing or going down. Kemp adds ten steals. Kemp’s better on average. Kemp is dating Rihanna.
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
@Grey: sent you an email back mr. mustache…. game on.
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February 9th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
@Stephen: Werth out-homered Kemp by 10 in 2009.
@Grey: Heh, I was going to add, “Or perhaps people want Kemp, hoping they can scratch their monitor with their roster on screen and get a sniff of Rhianna?”
Again, my point isn’t solely Kemp vs. Werth, it’s about value/pick. Who are you giving up at the #8 spot when you take Kemp, and what kind of OF could you get a round or two later?
Listen, if I got a Mexican Face Hat from Rhianna for taking Kemp in Round 1, I’d click that pick, smile wide and say, “Size 7 1/4, baby!”
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@Shmorgie S. Board: Ha! Most of us would. I hear what you’re saying, but you’re looking at decent 1st basemen when Werth is picked too. If you went for Fielder and Werth instead of Kemp and Youk, you’d get no argument from me.
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February 9th, 2010 at 3:13 pm
Check out the Yahoo default draft prerankings that came out today. Fielder and Miggy in he second round jumps out to me. Any others that you notice?
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February 9th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
@greyCheck out the Yahoo default draft prerankings that came out today. Fielder and Miggy in he second round jumps out to me. Any others that you notice?
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February 9th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
That Shandler article is pretty impressive! But I’m surprised you didn’t quote this part:
Is there something you’re trying to hide about your relationship with “the hedge”?
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@mikeyc: Haven’t had a chance to look at it.
@Dingo: Ha… Yeah, was waiting for someone to point that out.
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February 9th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
TO ALL RAZZBALLERS:
YAHOO FANTASY BASEBALL 2010 IS OPEN!!!!
FINALLY!!!!!
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February 9th, 2010 at 3:45 pm
Your reasoning makes sense to me – and when I saw you bagging on the ESPN mock, this is what I automatically assumed was happening over there. I didn’t read the comments in that post, so I don’t know if it was covered, but I feel like they were probably reaching hard for certain guys just to stake out a position on the ones they believed in.
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February 9th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
@Eddy: people are still using yahoo?! make the switch, bro!
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February 9th, 2010 at 3:53 pm
@Critter Nagurski:
My friends refuse to lol! but it’s all right, they’re not so bad. At least they made live scoring free this time around.
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February 9th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
@Critter Nagurski: Yahoo isn’t that bad. Truly.
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February 9th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
I think the most ridiculous ranking HAS to be Shin-Soo Choo at #44 ahead of the likes of Reyes, Werth, Reynolds, Granderson, Lind, Cruz, and more.
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February 9th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
@Eddy:
But on a good note, Lester is the 17th pitcher off the board (78 overall), and he seems like he could be a steal in Yahoo.
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February 9th, 2010 at 4:20 pm
That was almost scientificy.
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February 9th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
@Critter Nagurski: I love yahoo. I’ve played espn, cbs, etc…. and YAHOO seems to be the easiest to navigate, find things, players, and the league page where you post is the best….
I could also be bias because i’ve used yahoo for like 9 years now tho?
The free stat tracking is clutch now. Its about damn time. Alot of other interfaces were already free, and basketball jsut went to free for Yahoo so I was hoping baseball would do that same. Good Move YAHOO….
Man i can’t wait to see the rankings and who they have F’d up so i can hopefully get some bargains…. too bad half my league is snipers…
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February 9th, 2010 at 4:46 pm
@Eddy: choo is really that high? and not mary jane high… ranked that high? wow
tell me more… i just text our commish, we’ll be on in the next hour or so i’m sure…
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February 9th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
yea some of these guys are insane. Maybin and Kyle Blanks are buried past the 1000′s!!
and David Price is in the 330s.
Andrus is at 111, so for those who waited on him till the 14th-15th round, youll have to jump on him early.
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February 9th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
@Eddy:
Wandy is pretty high (75 overall), so i cant count on him for a late pick like I did at MDC.
Cole Hamels at 91 overall, I picked him up in my current draft
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February 9th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
@Grey:
How optimistic is Hamels’ line? I want to believe his rank here but idk why I can’t bring myself to acknowledge that he’s as good as you claim him to be!!
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February 9th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
@Eddy:
one last one, Julio Borbon is at 111, so he no longer can be counted to be there late either
Here’s yahoo default top 12:
1- Pujols
2-Hanley
3-A-Rod
4-Utley
5-Braun
6-Kemp
7-Tulo
8-Mauer
9-Lincecum
10-Wright
11-Longoria
12-Teixera
I was stunned at Tex being so low. Notice how Fielder and Howard aren’t on there either. Picking 11th or 12th at Yahoo this year can reap you some HUGE rewards.
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@Eddy: Look at Hamels’ 2007 and 2008. He wasn’t fully healthy in 2009 and he had a tired arm from his 2008 year.
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February 9th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
@Grey:
Ok i definitely see it now. Those 46 extra innings sure did him in last season. Call me a fan!
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February 9th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
I’m clearly being an idiot, but can someone post a link to the Yahoo default rankings? I can’t find them and I don’t want to join a mock draft just to view them.
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February 9th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
@Grey:
What’s the general playoff setting for 12 team H2H leagues?
Top 4 or 6?
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@Eddy: I prefer 4. Help Royce out above too if you can.
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February 9th, 2010 at 5:58 pm
@royce!:
Sorry royce, I’ve searched all over but there’s no way to access the Yahoo rankings without getting into a mock draft.
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February 9th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
@Eddy: That’s cool, I just joined one.
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February 9th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
@Grey: Thanks for sending help my way. Turns out mock drafting is a more interesting way of experiencing the new rankings anyway.
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February 9th, 2010 at 6:15 pm
My 10 team Mock draft on yahoo – I did not do my homework for this draft but I did pick up some stuff here
The Yahoo! Sports Fantasy team
Your Team
——————————————————————————–
1. Hanley Ramírez (Fla – SS) – speed – 2nd pick in draft
2. Matt Holliday (StL – OF) – speed
3. Kevin Youkilis (Bos – 1B,3B) – like a player that can give me two position
4. Jayson Werth (Phi – OF) – speed
5. Adam Lind (Tor – OF)
6. Justin Verlander (Det – SP)
7. Adam Wainwright (StL – SP)
8. Carlos Peña (TB – 1B)
9. Joe Nathan (Min – RP) – he was here so I took him – I never seen this coming
10. Ian Stewart (Col – 2B,3B)
11. Chipper Jones (Atl – 3B) ultilty
12. Nyjer Morgan (Was – OF) ultilty – speed
13. Jake Peavy (CWS – SP)
14. Stephen Strasburg (Was – SP) – someone had to draft him
15. Francisco Rodríguez (NYM – RP)
16. Billy Wagner (Atl – RP)
17. Jorge De La Rosa (Col – SP) – plenty of K’s
18. Rich Harden (Tex – SP)
19. José López (Sea – 1B,2B) – good bench production here
20. Chris Iannetta (Col – C) punted my catcher – it works
21. David Price (TB – SP) – 21 pick it works
22. Juan Pierre (CWS – OF) – speed
23. Carlos Delgado (NYM – 1B) – I had a dream I mean nightmare
Round 2
(1) timothy s – Carl Crawford (TB – OF)
(2) Team 9 – Joe Mauer (Min – C)
(3) Peter – Ryan Howard (Phi – 1B)
(4) Gobi P – Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
(5) Russell S – Prince Fielder (Mil – 1B)
(6) Jason – Miguel Cabrera (Det – 1B)
(7) Team 4 – Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B)
(8) Travis – Roy Halladay (Phi – SP)
(9) moehair929 – Matt Holliday (StL – OF)
(10) JACOB S – Justin Upton (Ari – OF)
Round 3
(1) JACOB S – Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos – OF)
(2) moehair929 – Kevin Youkilis (Bos – 1B,3B) – I know Grey would have taken Gonzalez but I took the multi position player
(3) Travis – Dustin Pedroia (Bos – 2B)
(4) Team 4 – Adrián González (SD – 1B)
(5) Jason – Joey Votto (Cin – 1B)
(6) Russell S – Jimmy Rollins (Phi – SS)
(7) Gobi P – Grady Sizemore (Cle – OF)
(8) Peter – Ben Zobrist (TB – 2B,SS,OF)
(9) Team 9 – Ichiro Suzuki (Sea – OF)
(10) timothy s – Derek Jeter (NYY – SS)
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February 9th, 2010 at 6:18 pm
@royce!:
It most definitely is. It’s the best way to find the biggest bargains (like the Maybin and Blanks post I made above).
And I got some good news for you (and anyone who does Yahoo). A new way to look at default rankings is either JOIN or CREATE a league (I just created mine [what? too early lol?]) and then you can click your predraft rankings and expand it all the way to “ALL”. There you’ll see everyone.
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February 9th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
@mrbaseball:
K-Rod in the 15th is insane
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February 9th, 2010 at 6:34 pm
Thanks guys! Eventually i’ll sign up for a league, grab the rankings and quit, but for now it’s good to see what you guys pick up on.
I’m disappointed about Julio Borbon and Longoria/Tulo being so high, but otherwise this looks highly exploitable. Where are Ian Kinsler, Joey Votto and Ryan Zimmerman ranked?
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February 9th, 2010 at 6:42 pm
@royce!: Yahoo rankings at http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news?slug=ys-expertpoll-10preseason1-top60
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@mrbaseball: That’s an insane 2nd and third round. Zobrist in the 3rd in a ten team league? Yikes. Actually a lot of that third round is ugly.
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February 9th, 2010 at 7:11 pm
Grey- in a 12 team league, what ideal draft pick would u want?
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February 9th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
@Atomic:
those aren’t the official rankings that the current mock drafts are using…
@brett:
Kinsler-16
Votto- Insanely high, I mean, 25
Zimmerman-33 (Behind Sandoval [29] and Youk [26])
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February 9th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
@Eddy:
I just realized I listed both Andrus and Borbon at 111, my mistake.
Andrus remains at 111 and Borbon a WHOPPING two picks later at 113.
Whose the lucky fella to be featured in that delicious upside/sagnof sandwich at 112 you ask?
A very bland John Danks
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February 9th, 2010 at 7:29 pm
Okay so the first thing I noticed beside the crazy rankings is that David Ortiz has 1B eligibility.
My first mock (I skipped out after round 17- the ole ball n chain got home from work):
1. Matt Kemp (LAD – OF)
2. Ian Kinsler (Tex – 2B)
3. Jimmy Rollins (Phi – SS)
4. Kendry Morales (LAA – 1B)
5. Curtis Granderson (NYY – OF)
6. Adam Dunn (Was – 1B,OF)
7. Ricky Nolasco (Fla – SP)
8. Cole Hamels (Phi – SP)
9. Gordon Beckham (CWS – 3B)
10. Heath Bell (SD – RP)
11. Ian Stewart (Col – 2B,3B)
12. Roy Oswalt (Hou – SP)
13. A.J. Burnett (NYY – SP)
14. Francisco Cordero (Cin – RP)
15. Miguel Montero (Ari – C)
16. David Price (TB – SP)
17. Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
18. Nolan Reimold (Bal – OF)
19. Garrett Jones (Pit – 1B,OF)
20. Kevin Gregg (Tor – RP)
21. Drew Stubbs (Cin – OF)
22. Dan Wheeler (TB – RP)
23. Jeff Francoeur (NYM – OF)
I don’t think this team is ideal, but it was interesting to see where people were getting drafted. Robot Jones could be a really big steal for teams that somehow miss out on an elite 1B. Anyhow, good times!
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February 9th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
@grey if i am picking at the end of round 1, does it make sense to get prince and miggy and play one at the utility or should i get longoria instead of miggy if i am taking prince?
jose reyes being ranked 48 is amazing! i will glady take at any point in the fourth round!
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@Martin: I like the end spot.
@royce!: Doesn’t look too bad. Even looks decent after you checked out. Well, except for the last two picks.
@mikeyc: Prince and Longoria sounds solid. Reyes at 48 is silly.
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February 9th, 2010 at 7:46 pm
Grey, who is more valuable in NL only keeper, I am going to trade either Votto or Zimmerman plus Hanson for Justin Upton, (i wasn’t going to keep Hanson anyways). Votto and Zimmerman seem so close and I am keeping Sandoval as a 1b or 3b
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@stanley: I’d trade Zimmerman. But that’s a lot to give up. I’m not crazy about it.
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February 9th, 2010 at 7:55 pm
@grey thanks for your help, I am looking at it more as a Zimmerman for Upton swap since Hanson isnt on my Keeper list, I can only keep 6 and I have Hanley, Kemp, Votto, Zimmerman, Sandoval, Haren, Hanson, and Carpenter
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February 9th, 2010 at 7:58 pm
Grey is basically saying: Expectation = Utility x Probability.
When you see a player’s projection (Utility), you need to also look at the risk associated with that projection (Probability). It’s the combination of both (Expectation) that leads to the player’s ranking.
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February 9th, 2010 at 8:00 pm
Here is the first four rounds of a mock I was just in:
Round 1
(1) dkmode_54 – Albert Pujols (StL – 1B)
(2) the_house34 – Hanley Ramírez (Fla – SS)
(3) Alex – Álex Rodríguez (NYY – 3B)
(4) Brian H – Ryan Braun (Mil – OF)
(5) scott – Chase Utley (Phi – 2B)
(6) BLee – Joe Mauer (Min – C)
(7) tribe – Miguel Cabrera (Det – 1B)
(8) Pronk – Tim Lincecum (SF – SP)
(9) TA – Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B)
(10) mike – Ryan Howard (Phi – 1B)
(11) John – Matt Kemp (LAD – OF)
(12) C.J. – Prince Fielder (Mil – 1B)
Round 2
(1) C.J. – Matt Holliday (StL – OF)
(2) John – Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
(3) mike – David Wright (NYM – 3B)
(4) TA – Roy Halladay (Phi – SP)
(5) Pronk – Ian Kinsler (Tex – 2B)
(6) tribe – Carl Crawford (TB – OF)
(7) BLee – Troy Tulowitzki (Col – SS)
(8) scott – Joey Votto (Cin – 1B)
(9) Brian H – José Reyes (NYM – SS)
(10) Alex – Justin Upton (Ari – OF)
(11) the_house34 – Adrián González (SD – 1B)
(12) dkmode_54 – Grady Sizemore (Cle – OF)
Round 3
(1) dkmode_54 – Pablo Sandoval (SF – 1B,3B)
(2) the_house34 – Kevin Youkilis (Bos – 1B,3B)
(3) Alex – Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos – OF)
(4) Brian H – Zack Greinke (KC – SP)
(5) scott – Mark Reynolds (Ari – 1B,3B)
(6) BLee – Ryan Zimmerman (Was – 3B)
(7) tribe – CC Sabathia (NYY – SP)
(8) Pronk – Félix Hernández (Sea – SP)
(9) TA – Chris Carpenter (StL – SP)
(10) mike – Jimmy Rollins (Phi – SS)
(11) John – Justin Morneau (Min – 1B)
(12) C.J. – Derek Jeter (NYY – SS)
Round 4
(1) C.J. – Robinson Canó (NYY – 2B)
(2) John – Brandon Phillips (Cin – 2B)
(3) mike – Ichiro Suzuki (Sea – OF)
(4) TA – Curtis Granderson (NYY – OF)
(5) Pronk – Kendry Morales (LAA – 1B)
(6) tribe – Brian McCann (Atl – C)
(7) BLee – Dan Haren (Ari – SP)
(8) scott – Johan Santana (NYM – SP)
(9) Brian H – Víctor Martínez (Bos – C,1B)
(10) Alex – Dustin Pedroia (Bos – 2B)
(11) the_house34 – Brian Roberts (Bal – 2B)
(12) dkmode_54 – Ben Zobrist (TB – 2B,SS,OF)
My team: (Could you take a quick look at it?) I didn’t really study up on it, but here it is.
1. Matt Kemp (LAD – OF)
2. Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
3. Justin Morneau (Min – 1B)
4. Brandon Phillips (Cin – 2B)
5. Jayson Werth (Phi – OF)
6. Josh Hamilton (Tex – OF)
7. Cole Hamels (Phi – SP)
8. Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF)
9. Matt Wieters (Bal – C)
10. A.J. Burnett (NYY – SP)
11. Carlos Mármol (ChC – RP)
12. Ian Stewart (Col – 2B,3B)
13. David Aardsma (Sea – RP)
14. Kevin Slowey (Min – SP)
15. Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
16. Mike González (Bal – RP)
17. Michael Wuertz (Oak – RP)
18. Joba Chamberlain (NYY – SP)
19. Alcides Escobar (Mil – SS)
20. Phil Hughes (NYY – SP,RP)
21. Ervin Santana (LAA – SP)
22. Nick Blackburn (Min – SP)
23. Matt Lindstrom (Hou – RP)
[Reply]
February 9th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
@grey Which three would you pick out of mccutchen, cruz, jones, ethier, lind? also Quentin is ranked 164! how long do you think i cud afford to wait to take him?
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February 9th, 2010 at 8:10 pm
is kershaw, slowey, delarosa, sanchez, cueto, price an acceptable pitching staff? should i try and pick less ‘sleeper’ guys and take someone boring likes wells, wolf, oswalt?
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February 9th, 2010 at 8:13 pm
@Grey What low end closers are you looking to take besides Aardsma?
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@stanley: Yeah, but you also don’t want to make other teams so much better.
@DrEasy: Yup.
@GopherDay: Those rounds make a little more sense.
@mikeyc: 164 is crazy. I’d wait until the 10th or 11th round there. Lind, Jones and Ethier…
@maddogrusso: Oswalt’s a good boring guy. Those other guys are just boring. That staff is a bit too heavy on upside.
@LastingsMilledge: I have a top 20 closer list to look at. And all of the closers will be coming on Thursday. I really don’t have too many preferences. Dotel, Bell, Aardsma, Soriano… They’re all good.
[Reply]
February 9th, 2010 at 9:35 pm
I peruse many other ‘pert sites everyday, and I must say that Razzball is most in line with the way I project players and my overall fantasy baseball philosophy. Not only is the analysis witty (my wife constantly asks what I’m laughing at, and when I try to explain, I get “deer in the headlights”), but it is usually spot on. Grey, Rudy, and the others simply speak my language, making it easy to use this site as one of my #1 reads.
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February 9th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
Grey (or anyone else),
Is there a good, user-friendly site to get sortable stats on FIP? I have actually found this a somewhat difficult stat to find for all SPs (or for all Ps, for that matter).
[Reply]
February 9th, 2010 at 10:18 pm
http://www.fangraphs.com
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@Rhymenoceros: Thanks!
@Rabbit: Fangraphs has it.
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February 9th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
i guess i should add to that:
Click on “Leaders” at the top to get previous years’ stats, then click on “pitchers” then click “Advanced”. That’ll take you here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0
or click on “Projections” instead of Leaders to get projections for 2010.
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February 9th, 2010 at 10:24 pm
That reminds me:
Does anyone know if there’s a database out there with “stolen bases allowed” or something like that for pitchers? I know Chris Young is the king of this but who else can i take advantage of?
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February 9th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
@brett: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/stolenBases/type/opponent-batting
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February 9th, 2010 at 10:36 pm
@Simply Fred: Awesome, thanks! Can’t wait to put this to use.
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February 9th, 2010 at 11:07 pm
@brett: Let us know what kind of conclusions you draw.
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February 9th, 2010 at 11:42 pm
@Simply Fred: Sure will. My first plan is to put this in terms of SB allowed per inning pitch. After that, all i want to use it for is to stream SAGNOF players all year based on who they’re up against. This will only work in leagues with unlimited transaction, so i might only be able to try it in a league or two but i’ll be sure to let you know how it goes.
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February 10th, 2010 at 9:32 am
@brett: Thanks, Brett! I should explore the Fangraphs site some more, for other stuff as well.
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February 10th, 2010 at 9:40 am
great post, grey. i wish you would do more like this, though it definitely works better in the pre-season. it would seem to me that this is inherent in rankings; it’s why i rank my players separately every year, though i never consider them perfect. while they may need tweaking and look crazy at times, it’s impossible to say that they’ll ever *be* perfect.
last year i reached heavily for sandoval, hanson (to an extent), and votto and was rewarded heavily. if he’s typically going in the 7th round and my mind says he’s 5th round talent, i’ll draft him in the 5th round. it’s more about players i want than what his ADP is.
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