One recurring question regarding my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings is why do I have so and so above so and so if I say I like the second so and so better than the first so and so? Okay, so I’ve never received that exact question, because that’s massively confusing. Here’s a variation of the so and so question that you might actually recognize. If you look at my top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post, I have Scott Sizemore below Crapolanco. But I also say in that post how I wouldn’t own Crapolanco. So I’d take Sizemore before Crapolanco? Yes and no. I’d wait until Polanco was drafted, then I’d draft Sizemore. Why exactly? That late in a draft I’m going with upside over the predictable. Then why not just put Sizemore above Crapolanco? A few reasons: 1) If I only ranked players I’d own, there would be maybe a 100 total guys across all rankings. 2) Crapolanco does have value. His preseason value is above Sizemore. Crapolanco has less risk, but, as previously mentioned, I don’t want less risk that late. Some drafters may. 3) Sizemore may not even have the value I’m giving him there. He’s a risky upside pick. I’m putting him in the rankings so you know I like someone. I’m putting flashing lights around a player’s name in the player blurb.
There was more I wanted to say on point 3, but I was beaten by Ron Shandler. And, hey, when you’re beaten by Shandler, you take your noogies. This article he wrote last year has so many great points I suggest you read it yourself, but I’m going to highlight a quote that I think pertains:
“…when our projection says $27, it is intended solely to make you say $22 when the bidding stops at $21 (assuming the context of normal market conditions). If we had published a projection of $23 or $24, that’s not enough of a psychological push for you to take that last leap of faith.”
This is what I’m doing with certain projections. I’m attempting to push you towards certain players. It’s why you see my Ian Stewart projections are way above any other ‘perts. I might be wrong on Stewart, but I’m pushing you towards him. But then Jose Lopez is above Ian Stewart in the rankings? Yeah, but he’s in a tier called, “Boring.” My commentary is as important as the actual rankings. So do you want boring or risk and upside and maybe downside? These are decisions you have to make for your own team. (Oh, and you’ll see Stewart’s actually above Lopez in the top 100 and top 300 because of the 3rd base eligibility. How’s that for further confusion?)
It’s why I have Jonathan Sanchez ranked below Lackey but his projections say he’ll be better. I think Sanchez will be better, but he has more risk. It’s a limb. You need to know how many limbs you’re going out on. A few per team is fine. If every player on your team is a limb, your team is tipping over.
It’s why I said Carlos Quentin was a sleeper. He’s being drafted 102nd overall on average. You can wait until the 8th round and get value. You don’t need to draft him in the 5th like I have in my rankings. I am highlighting him. You need to know where guys are actually being drafted. You need to read the blurbs I have next to the players. You need to know what tiers you want to draft from.
If you believe Brandon Webb is healthy and will be back to the dominant pitcher he’s always been, you could be right. Right now, his ADP is 127 right behind Wandy. I’m not taking on that risk for where Webb’s being drafted. I’ll take a starter who actually was good last year vs. a starter that was injured for the entire year.
As said in the rankings post, there’s latitude amongst the rankings. I’d say the top 20 have a latitude of around a +/- 2. The top 50 around a +/- 10; the top 100 around a +/- 20, the top 150 with a +/- 40. And so on. The most important part of the rankings is my commentary. If I like a guy, I’d reach for him in certain circumstances. If I need an outfielder who gives me a 15/30 year, then I’m taking Andrew McCutchen. I would draft him 90th overall even though I have him at 120th. Each team is different. The rankings are meant to be a jumping off point with my commentary and projections telling you where I stand.