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In our ongoing schmohawk series where I breakdown overrated players for 2010 fantasy baseball, I’ve gone into depth on some of these guys.  I decided to also take a lookie-loo at Mock Draft Central’s Average Draft Pick board and grab ten players that I thought were overrated from their top 81.  If MDC could talk, I think even it would agree that some of these draft picks make no sense.  If you click on a player’s name, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these schmohawks.  Anyway, here’s some overrated players for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – ADP — 13.  Last year, his homers were bonkers for him.  He’s a catcher with a bad back.  Leave him to the autodrafters.

Mark Reynolds – ADP — 20.  Are people seriously drafting a guy that breaks the strikeout record every year in the 2nd round?  Rhetorical!

Victor Martinez – ADP — 22.  At 1st base, this makes no sense.  At catcher, it makes less sense.

Jason Bay – ADP — 25.  I’m hoping Reyes will come back soon, but right now Bay’s hitting behind Wright, Lousy Castillo and Angel Pagan and in front of Daniel Murphy.  Bay anywhere near 25 is fjord’ing crazy.

Pablo Sandoval – ADP — 39.  I’m guessing drafters reach for Sandoval due to The Great 3rd Basemen Drought of 2010.  My Chase Headley projections are 70/20/85/.290/10, Sandoval’s projections are 80/24/95/.315/4.  Cust kayin’.

Aaron Hill – ADP — 50.  Last year’s overrated guys (namely Hamilton) were causing people to send death threats to the site.  This year Aaron Hill could knock up your 17-year-old sister and you wouldn’t care that much.  Not sure why, but this year there’s a pretty boring group of overrated guys.  Should give people more reason to ignore them.  Alas…

Javier Vazquez – ADP — 59.  Unless Keith Law has been doing hundreds of mock drafts, this ADP is baffling.  Last time he pitched in NY, he had a 4.91 ERA.  That was pre-Jetstream.

Manny Ramirez – ADP — 62.  When he was younger, his insouciance (Word of the Day!) was cute and didn’t mess with his game.  Yeah, insouciance doesn’t age well.

Aramis Ramirez – ADP — 61.  I have him 30 spots lower on my top 100.  I thought about dropping him another 10 or so spots when I thought about how he has no speed and hasn’t hit over 30 homers since 2006.

Billy Butler – ADP — 81.  November Grey thought about doing a Butler sleeper post, but now I think Butler’s in sleeper sell territory. He doesn’t bring that much to the table. Unless we’re talking about the dinner table.

  1. Terrence Mann says:
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    Agree with Butler and his moobs. Had a ton of plate appearances last year to get his HR numbers. Who is going to bat behind him? Guillen? Blech.

    One query. How do you have Sizemore ranked so high when Granderson and Cruz are projected to put up similar numbers a couple rounds later, minus a few stolen bases? I’m going to get Sizemore two full rounds earlier when he’s a proven injury risk vs. the other two guys for a few SBs? Sizemore sticks out as a guy that is overrated here, IMO.

  2. Colonel Kustard says:
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    At what pick would you be willing to spring for these guys? I know it’s too far away, but next year, I’ll be able to keep Sandoval in the 7th round (15th round this year). Would that still be good value? I’m sure that I can still find a better option in this year’s draft or waiver wire, but I still think that’s a good value pick for him.

  3. Even I think Mini Donkey in r2-3 is ridiculous. 4-5 tho, I think hes as interesting as Youks or Panda.

  4. I didn’t even notice you liked Headly, I just drafted him on a hunch.

  5. Steve says:
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    In the (real) slow (real) draft I’m doing, Butler was the last of these guys to be picked – at 87.

  6. Spaceman.Spiff says:
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    I agree Javier Vazquez is getting drafted way higher than he should but it’s misleading to suggest that he’s the same pitcher now that he was the last time he pitched in NY. There’s no way he’s repeating the sub-3 era he did in AAAA East last year but it would be equally shocking if his ERA approached 4.91.

  7. Spaceman.Spiff says:
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    And unless your league counts strikeouts, it’s possible for a guy to have 2nd round value even if he’s among the league leaders in strikeouts; just ask Ryan Howard.

    …of course, I don’t think Reynolds is as good as Howard but the strikeouts themselves shouldn’t be the main detracting point, the potential that last year was a fluke should be.

  8. scrotum says:
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    Grey,

    Wood owner wants to pull Chris Perez off me. Is Seth Smith + Perez for Nolan Reimold reasonable? 14 team. Thanks.

  9. Marco says:
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    Everytime I read “the last time he was in NY” I stop reading cuz this is way too stupid for me…
    At least I can save some time cuz Spaceman.Spiff wrote it all in #5!!!

  10. Tony says:
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    @Terrence Mann: because sizemore could go 35/35 or 40/40. Cruz and Grandy aren’t doing better than 35/20….. Sizemore has more speed. I do agree sizemore is a BIT overrated, mainly because of his low average. If he could hit .280 tho? he could be sick nasty….

  11. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Spaceman.Spiff: howard’s career avg is much higher than reynolds’ career avg (.279 v. .257). not to mention, if you take away reynolds’ rookie year prior to pitchers getting a good scouting report on him, his avg the past 2 seasons is .250.

    in other words, howard has proven he can strikeout and still not hurt you in avg, while reynolds has not.

  12. Millsy says:
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    @Tony

    How can you seriously suggest Sizemore has a chance to go 40-40? The guy has hit more than 28 HR once in his career (33). Not to mention the batting average trouble. Even Bill James projects him for a 25 HR 21 SB season. He strikes out as many as 155 times a year, which is no Mark Reynolds, but it’s no Dimaggio either (22.2% K rate). That’s not to mention his recent trouble getting above the .268 batting average threshold.

  13. steamer says:
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    Good list Grey, I hope these guys get drafted in my league at their ADP, just won’t be me.

  14. Mickey says:
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    agree with all of them.

    But are you really that high on Headley?

  15. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Whew… held my breath whilst reading this article, waiting to see a name I spent good money on in my “main league”. *sigh of relief* Not a one… homework pays off, kids.

    In that league, however, Mauer sold for $35 (must want the coveted “Owner of the Best Catcher” award) and Manny sold for $15 (that friend smokes a lot of pot… he could have easily thought it was 2004 on draft day).

  16. Tony says:
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    @Millsy: I’m not saying he WILL or SHOULD i’m saying he COULD, and i dont think a guy like Cruz or Grandy has ANY chance of it. Grady hit 28, 24, then 33 HR’s and is ONLY 27 coming into this season. He stole 33 and 38 bases in the two seasons prior to getting hurt last year. Bill James is a moron if you ask me. Seriously why do people use him as a statistical reference like he’s god? What did he predict Chris Davis at last year? 50HRs and a .300 average? His prediction on Grady is due to his injury from last year. I will agree with you grady is suspect on the average, which is why i’m not the hugest fan, but saying a guy who has put together seasons of 33HR’s and 38 SB’s has NO CHANCE at 40/40 is kinda crazy? 35/35 is more doable….. but whats 40/40? 5 more HR’s and 5 more Sb’s, thats not that much…. Reynolds K’s 200 times per year and hit 40, whats your point on the K rate? Do i truly believe grady is going to go 40/40? NO. I do think him and Matt Kemp are about the ONLY two players in baseball that have a chance though. I dont think Kemp has the power to hit more than 35 if he can even hit more than 30.

  17. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Tony: Grady hasn’t put together seasons (plural) of 33 HR, 38 SB… he did it once. Cust kayin’.

  18. Quintero says:
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    The Headley train is for real real. Here is an interesting projection hazard, Bill James keeps faith in Garrett Atkins: .285 60-15-70 in 478PA

    Last year his LD% is abnormal, Camden Yards is somewhere a hitter’s park and hits left and right. Should I put Atkins on watch list? If he reaches 600ABs…

  19. Matt B says:
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    Grey: which 2 SP to drop? Richard is probably an obvious but I was liking the dual SP/RP eligibility when we have 4SP/2RP in a weekly h2h 1-win.
    24. SP K Correia (279)
    24. SP R Wells (284)
    25. SP G Gonzalez (293)
    25. SP/RP C Richard (298)

  20. Beau says:
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    Finally had my first real draft the other night, in a 10 team standard 5×5 roto league with only 1 util, 3 of and 5 bench spots. I found myself taking extra pitchers and very few (1) offensive bench players since it seemed that offense would be really shallow in this league and the fa pool should be pretty equivalent to anything id have on my bench. I ended up with 8 pitchers in a row to end the draft or something like that, does this seem like a bad idea? Here is what i ended up with, any thoughts would be appreciated, especially going into $$ keeper league tomorrow:
    c:wieters (10)
    1b:Tex (1)
    2b:kinsler (2)
    ss:Rollins(3)
    3b:youk(4)
    of: granderson (5), adam jones (8), span (9), pierre (17)
    util: ian stewart (13)
    sp: santana (6), hamels (7), billingley (11), weaver (14), slowey (15), hughes (19), kazmir (21)
    rp:marmol (12), franklin (16), dotel (18), lidge (20)

    The following guys, in this rediculously shallow leauge set up are on waivers, any thoughts to add/drops?
    -david ortiz, coughlan, vladi, hawpe, helton yunel escobar, fragu, bedard, wuertz, downs…

  21. Frank Rizzo says:
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    I’m still not as down on Aramis as some but I wouldn’t take him at 61 either so he never ends up on my teams.

    Speaking of Reyes…..I’ve mocked a couple times recently on ESPN and found that they’ve dropped him to 81 overall now. What’s the consensus now on Reyes? I’m in 10 teamers so would a 5th round be too soon? 6th? Will he be back and healthy in May?

  22. Spaceman.Spiff says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon:

    That’s exactly what I’m saying. The strikeouts themselves are no deterrent in most leagues, it’s the fact that Reynolds isn’t a good enough hitter for average that should have people scratching their heads when someone takes him in the 2-3 rounds.

  23. Beau says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: I think its a gamble at this point because it seems even the team just doesnt really know. If my first few round picks were all real safe and less upside picks id be inclined to take him in the 5th or 6th if there wasnt anyone else i liked there, but i wouldnt be too upset if someone else got him and made my decision a bit easier.

  24. Tony says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: I’m not saying he’s done anything for multiple years, etc, i’m saying he’s put up a season in which he hit 33HR’s and 38 sb’s, how is it inconceivable that he could put up 40/40 when he’s JUST turning 27? He was showing nice progression from ages 22-25, besides the average, and he was just coming into his prime. I dont like that he doesn’t have a victor martinez, pronk, or basically anyone around him now, but he’s still grady, a 30/30 season is not out of question, 35/35 could happen, and 40/40 would be a monster bounce back and he’d have to raise his average to probably .280. Oh and the indians are batting him 3rd I believe, he won’t run as much, but still, he COULD do it, he has the tools.

  25. mc serch says:
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    @Terrence Mann: I agree with your assessment completely. I passed over Sizemore in the 2nd round (19th pick) for the reasons you mentioned. In addition to the low average and injury risk, he’s not exactly heading an offensive juggernaut over there in Cleveland. Plenty of OF help in rounds 4-6 and later.

  26. Tony says:
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    @mc serch: Ya i wouldn’t take him, because of the risk, BUT he could be a steal in the late second, he just wont be a steal on my teams.

  27. pubscout says:
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    Butler at 81 is crazy. But there has to be a year that the he just goes off, no? Why not this year? 50 doubles/20 home runs at 23 years old is as good a reason as any to mancrush on him. I nabbed him in Rnd 10 (over Pena – just can’t be party to my 1B maybe hitting .200, call it Chris Davis survivor syndrome) and am very pleased to have his moobs at that point in the draft. Now excuse me…I have to go write in my journal about all the special things Butler is going to do for my team…

  28. ichirosan says:
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    I had a dream last night: Ian Stewart was leaving the board IN THE 3RD ROUND, Chris Davis style, Elvis Andrus in the 4th, and Filthy Sanchez in the 8th in a 12-team league. I then came here and started throwing curses at Grey until I realized this was a dream, and then woke up.

    I seriously need to stop thinking about my pre-draft rankings for the RCL.

  29. Eddy says:
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    The only way I’d take Grady would be if he fell to me in the 3rd. It happened once in a mock, but well, that was a mock.

    I don’t feel that “satisfaction” picking him in the 2nd, as opposed to picking Kinsler, Tulo, Holliday, or Votto.

  30. magicterp says:
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    Just had my main keeper league 5×5 H2H 10-team NL only auction over the weekend. Punted catcher and SS, SP may need some depth, love my OF. What are my glaring needs? FA pool is very thin due to NL only.

    C – Miguel Olivo
    1B – Votto
    2B – Weeks
    3B – Zimm
    SS – Theriot
    IF – Felipe Lopez
    OF – Braun
    OF – Ethier
    OF – Pence
    OF – Nyger
    UTIL – Milledge
    SP – Cole Hamels
    SP – DeLaRosa
    SP – Jon Sanchez
    P – Chris Young
    P – Jason Hammel
    RP – Marmol
    RP – Dotel

    BE – Jennry Mejia
    BE – Ian Desmond
    BE – EY Jr.
    BE – Daniel Murphy
    BE – Jeff Clement (I know Grey frowns upon 2 catchers, but don’t know which one I can trust)

  31. Mikey boy324 says:
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    GreY I got the 4 pick in a 12 team h2h league I hoping utley falls to me then I was thinking either holliday or sizmore in round 2 and then in round 3 I was thinking of pulling the trigger on morneau do you think that’s too early for him or should I look at a guy like zimmermann if he’s still there?

  32. HalLeeDay34 says:
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    Grey, first I just want to thank you for taking the time to answer of all our questions. You do a great job. Your criticism is always constructive and when it’s aimed my way I try to take it to improve my teams as much as possible.
    In the case of Juan Pierre, you said he was too much of a liability in terms of his lack of any powe. You did your first two round pairings and pitcher pairings before and they really helped me in my thinking. Am I way off base to think that a Pierre-Ian Stewart pairing leaves me with two victorino like players when their numbers are combined. I’m not saying exactly the same production but at least in the ball park. 20-25 hr from Stewart, 30-50 sb from Pierre. I don’t feel like these are crazy numbers by any stretch but at least serviceable as my util or final OF slot. I started my team with Miggy, Holliday, Cano and Granderson so I think it’s somewhat stable at the top of my hitting. I’m just concerned that you feel Pierre will hurt my production and I think I’m going to need his legs. Thanks again in advance

  33. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @magicterp: looks pretty solid for NL only to me. might want to pick up some bench SPs, cause i wouldn’t wanna be stuck trusting young or hammel every game all season. i think clement is worth a gamble to see how he starts. if he plays every day at 1B and reaches half his potential, you have a top 5 or so catcher overall.

  34. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Mikey boy324: i would prefer zimmerman. you can still maybe land votto in the 4th or morales in the 5th/6th or butler later (even if he is overrated a bit), all of whom could easily put up better numbers than morneau. whereas at 3B, if you don’t get zimmerman, you better grab youk, cause after than the proven production and health levels seriously falls off, and you’ll be hoping a guy can stay healthy (chipper, aramis) or hope a guy has a bounce back year to .280-20-80 (beltre) or hedging your bets on potential (stewart).

  35. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: Unless I’m misunderstanding, though, you’re getting Victorino-like numbers from two roster slots, not one. So it’s really more like two guys putting up 12/18 kind of numbers.

    Unless you’re planning to platoon Pierre and Desmond, which seems like a one-way ticket to sonavabench-insanity.

  36. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: Unless I’m misunderstanding, though, you’re getting Victorino-like numbers from two roster slots, not one. So it’s really more like two guys putting up 12/18 kind of numbers. Assuming both Stewart and Pierre hit the top-end of their projections.

    Unless you’re planning to platoon Pierre and Stewart, which seems like a one-way ticket to sonavabench-insanity.

  37. magicterp says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Thanks for looking and responding! Have similar thoughts on additional bench SP, but the cupboard is pretty bare right now. Also not sure which bench bat I would drop.

  38. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    Sorry about the double-post — I initially mistook one Ian for another.

    Great post, btw, Grey — I would be shocked if any of these players hit their ADP value. Mini-Donkey most of all. If he regresses to ’08 levels, he’s back to being a 20th rounder. Like he was in ’09.

  39. Critter Nagurski says:
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    “sleeper sell” — nice

  40. Beau says:
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    Also, regarding the keeper league Im drafting in tomorrow — we all share who are keepers are and it seems an inordinate amount of top SPs are being kept. I am keeping lester, but thats the only P im keeping. Its a 10 team 6 keeper league and 20 SPs are being kept. Do I need to reach for a SP or two a bit earlier in the draft or what strategy should I employ to adapt to this? Thank you!

  41. Millsy says:
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    @Tony

    I referred the Bill James quote because he is often seen as overly optimistic on the stats projections, relative to how the other systems work, not necessarily because I think it’s what we should be going by.

    I think Cruz has a much better chance at the 40 HR mark than Sizemore, though. Not the 40-40 mark, of course. I’ve just never been a huge Sizemore fan, and I think the stolen bases could be suspect after an injury, that’s all.

  42. HalLeeDay34 says:
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    @Baron-It’s clearly on the optimistic side but I’m seeing Victorino hitting 10-15 Hr and stealing 25-30 bases. Stewart hits 25 again(with upside for 30) and Pierre(who has 5 straight 30 steal seasons even as a part time player) steals 40-50 your looking at production slightly under the line of two victorino’s. I don’t think either will score as many runs but I’m hoping Stewart handily outproduces Victorino in Rbi as well. I’m just using Shane as an example here, he’s not set in stone or anything. Just a decent player to base this off of. I’m just wondering if I need to make a few moves before the year starts or if my thinking could be close to reality

  43. sean says:
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    @Tony: I drafted Sizemore in the third in two big money ten-team leagues, so I’m hinging my hopes on him getting somewhere close to first round value. My fear is that he’s more Alex Rios than Alex Rodriguez. Unless he goes 30/30 with a respectable average (.270s), he’s probably going to underperform my pick. I’m actually thinking about trying to flip him.

    If Cleveland’s offense is as weak as it looks without V-Mart, he could end up getting pitched around, ending up with a line of 80/25/80/.265/20, which looks a heck of a lot more like Rios, McLouth and other double-digit 20/20 guys than a top-20 player.

  44. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: Yes, except you’re comparing Stewart/Pierre to Victorino, rather than Stew/Pierre to Victorino/Player #2 — so you’re assuming that Player #2 would provide 0 HRs and 0 SBs. (Kurt Suzuki, is that you?)

    If Player #2 is even an average OF — something like 20/80/5, let’s say — then Victorino/Playa far outperforms Pierre/Stewart.

  45. sean says:
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    @Millsy: IIRC, the Bill James counting stats are usually higher because they project a significant number more at-bats for players slated to get get full-time PT. It was explained to me as something like they don’t discount at-bats that stars will lose to veteran bench and utility players, days off, and what not…

    A couple of great articles on how the Bill James projections aren’t really as “optimistic” as some suggest:
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-crazy-bill-james-projections/
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-thought-process-behind-the-bill-james-system/
    The second has some actual input from someone behind the projections.

  46. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Actually on second read I see that you’re comparing Pierre/Stewart to Victorino/Victorino.

    Which makes more sense, except no one would draft a Victorino-type twice — in fact, you’d have to draft a high HR/RBI guy to off-set Victorino in your OF.

    Basically, my point is I drafted Pierre in the 2nd round in 2005 and I’m still bitter. That is all.

  47. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @magicterp: probably weak on power

  48. HalLeeDay34 says:
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    @Baron-Sorry about 2005 man. I took David Wright 4th last year and am a die hard Phils fan so he’s not sitting at the top of my lists even with a big bounce back in order. Liriano though I keep going back like am abused wife. “Its not his fault, I forced him to do it”
    2 victorino’s are light on power I understand that. You can live with that production was my only point. Miggy, Holliday, Cano, Granderson I should have some nice Hr-RBI production I’m hoping. My original thought was do I need to make a move for an Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena type to get my power back into order with this type of team.

  49. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: I took Wright 5th last year.

    We should start a support group.

    p.s. I’m assuming as a Phils fan, your monicker is a reference to Doc Halladay. As a lifelong Blue Jays fan, I say: Enjoy him. He is the toast. I honestly hope he wins a Series. He deserves it.

  50. Wild Thing says:
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    Grey-

    Pick 2 of 3 for your bench spots – Prado, Alcides, Desmond

  51. @Steve: When are we ever going to finish this draft? Seriously, one round is taking 2 days….I feel like I haven’t picked since before we had national health insurance.

    @Grey — How unemotional can I afford to be about keepers? I got V-Mart cheaply in a trade last year, and with him only costing me a 5th round pick this year, I decided it was good value and kept him. But….I hate him. I think I’d be much happier if I’d just tossed him back, let someone else overspend on him, and grab Soto or Iannetta late in the draft. Oh well…what’s done is done. Let’s hope he gets lots of 1B and DH starts and goes .320/28/115.

  52. HalLeeDay34 says:
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    @Baron- Yea the name is a Halladay Cliff Lee combo. A man can dream to have both right? Cole Hamels as the #3 with this lineup! Don’t even get me started. I couldn’t be more excited for opening day. 6 innings is considered a disgrace for this guy and it’s nice to have a true horse leading us.
    On a Non Pierre note, someone dropped Phil Hughes in my keeper league. Amy word if he’s going to be the 5th starter and should I make a move to grab him? I’d have to drop Ricky Romero who is also a back of the rotation flier for me.
    I’ve only been here a few months but I really do love the insight and knowledge that everyone brings to the table. I’ll be donating to the Grey gets drunk fund for sure.

  53. royce! says:
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    I feel that I have to find some way to defend drafting Vazquez because I did so in a 10 team league (at 118, though). His ERA was 4.91 for the Yankees, but it was also 4.42 for ARI the next year and 4.84 for CWS the year after that.
    Unfortunately, that really proves nothing more than he can also pitch poorly in the NL West and the AL Central. Yeesh, never mind.

  54. steamer says:
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    Just did a mock in the 11th spot, with a complete reversal in strategy, taking 2 SP’s first, just to see what would happen & it wasn’t too bad actually:
    (1) Lincecum (2) Halladay (3) Youk (4) Mourneau (5) Grandy (6) Dunn (7) Quentin (8) Andrus (9) Rios….

  55. Tony says:
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    @Millsy: ya this season will tell if sizemore can bounce back, he’s had a year to rehab and get stronger, who knows….. he’s still young and in his prime.

    I hear what you’re saying on james and how you were using it to look at grady, he usually does over shoot guys. I’m not a fan of him at all i dont know why so many people even give any credit to his projections, most seem over shot big time to me…..

  56. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: @Baron Von Vulturewins: The team I drafted Wright on won the Championship. He wasn’t as terrible as portrayed. His final ranking was 70 at Yahoo. Not what you expected, but he scored as well as some substantial players, when he was in an off year, such as Cruz, Phillips, Votto, Victorino. What was wierd was that he morphed into a totally different player then the one you thought that you drafted. He got you a lot of steals that you did not expect. Luckily, I had the Prince to pick up the slack in the power numbers. I will draft him again, but not at the projected ADP. Not convinced that he will get his power mojo back. .

  57. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Tony: You had referred to Sizemore as a player who “has put together seasons of 33HR’s and 38 SB’s”. I was simply pointing out that your use of the plural “seasons” made your statement incorrect… he only did it once.

    I don’t feel strongly one way or another in the argument. However, gun to my head, I would say he doesn’t have even a remote shot at 40/40. Progression is nice, but with that BA and K rate, it is WAY more likely that he’s already hit his ceiling. And considering the lack of lineup support, I would take the ‘under’ on a 35/35 season this year… hell, I’d take the under on 30/30 this year.

  58. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    V-Mart: 1 HR in 22games (72 AB) at home in Boston. Yeah, might just miss his ADP.

    @HalLeeDay34: Just click on the grey square with the counter-clockwise arrow after the date and it will auto-fill the person to whom you are responding.

  59. HalLeeDay34 says:
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    Ha I lost in the finals with D Wright and the Fat Prince as my first two picks. Between no power and the injury at the end of the year he just frustrated me beyond belief. Plus I hate the Mets

  60. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: Hughes has the edge for the 5th starter job, but it still hasn’t been decided. As for him Grey has Hughes projected as #46 and Romero as #58 in his top 80 Starters rankings.

    @royce!: i inherited Vasquez as a keeper in one of my leagues. I have tried, without any success, to pawn him off since he was traded to the Yankees. He is a fantasy leper. Last time he was portrayed, with some accuracy, as one of those guys who can’t deal with the pressure of playing in the Big Apple. He is more mature now, but this is a difficult place for a rightie to pitch. He did, however, have the 9th highest Yahoo rating for all players last year, which was unbelievable. Don’t expect that, of course, but I think that he will likely win about 17 games, and get an ERA around 4.20, with a lot of K’s. That isn’t all that bad.

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: You’re talking about Sizemore being a proven injury risk but Cruz is just proven? And Grandy had a career year for power last year while hitting .249. Not exactly like he’s proven to be just ten steals less than Grady.

    @Colonel Kustard: Sandoval in the 7th is good value.

    @Elijah: Good hunch.

    @Steve: What is this draft you’re doing that seems to be taking you away from Razzball? Is this with Hippo? Is this H2H?

    @scrotum: I’d take Reimold there.

    @Mickey: No, not that high. But he’s someone to look at late at CI.

    @Awesomus Maximus: Ha!

    @Quintero: Eh

    @Matt B: Lose Wells then.

    @Beau: Team looks solid, if low on average. I want to lose someone for Vlad and/or Coghlan but you have no one to lose. In that shallow of a league, I’m actually worried about Stewart. You need all All-Star players, and I’m not sure Stewart is that. Guess hold for now.

    @pubscout: Ha!

    @ichirosan: Ha!

    @magicterp: I looked first and thought this was just a 10 team league and I got real worried. Now I see it’s NL-Only. You have a very solid hitting, wouldn’t be surprised if you have too many steals and can trade EY Jr. or Nyjer for some power. Your pitching might be an issue all year for you. It’s very weak. Oh, and you don’t need the 2nd catcher.

    @Mikey boy324: Zimmerman

    @HalLeeDay34: I think Baron’s gotcha covered.

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Yup

    @Wild Thing: Alcides, Desmond

    @Mark Geoffriau: V-Mart’s fine in a 5th round. He’s a keeper there.

  62. Beau says:
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    @Grey: Thanks Grey, thats exactly what I was thinking. WOuld you drop kazmir for either of them? I have lidge to stash on DL once the season starts…but that seems like so long from now!

  63. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: This just in:

    Jose Reyes (hyperthyroid condition) has yet to be cleared for exercise, according to the New York Post.

    It’s week three of the “2-8 week” estimate on his return. Not being cleared to even exercise is a big bat o’ taint… it taint a bad sign per se, but it taint a good sign either. The longer he’s on the La-Z-Boy instead of in the gym, the further Ms. Reward moves away from Mr. Risk. I own Reyes in one of my leagues, so I’m hoping those two get back together soon.

  64. Tony says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: my bad, didn’t see the seasonS……

    If i had to put a % on him going 40/40 I’d say like 3%. LOL I’m not saying hes’ going to, but he COULD. There’s players like PRINCE FIELDER, he can hit 40 but there is absolutely NO way he can steal 40. I’m just saying sizmore has the tools, whether you or I think he’s maxed out his potential at where he was with his ONE 33/38 season.

    He can run and hit for power is what I’m saying. Especially in my 10×10 league I dont like him as much bc of his low average.

  65. brad says:
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    Recently drafted this team in a 14 team h2h keep 5 points league (so cat weaknesses don’t matter and a crappy sp with rp eligibility is as good as a middling closer.) What do you think of the team? Any guys you don’t like in a points format?

    C Matt Wieters
    1B Mark Reynolds
    2B Rickie Weeks
    3B Evan Longoria
    SS Jimmy Rollins
    OF B.J. Upton
    OF Justin Upton
    OF Carlos Gonzalez
    UTIL Garrett Jones
    Bench Kelly Johnson
    Bench Ian Desmond

    SP Yovani Gallardo
    SP Ricky Nolasco
    SP Wandy Rodriguez
    SP Matt Garza
    SP Jonathan Sanchez
    RP Chad Qualls
    RP Kenshin Kawakami
    RP Justin Masterson
    Bench Jered Weaver
    Bench Neftali Feliz
    Bench Derek Holland

  66. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: How could you possibly hate the lovable bumbling Metropolitans? Hate the arrogant, haughty, Highlanders from the Bronx, who snap their fingers whenever they have the slightest need, paying top dollar and making paupers of the rest of their competitors. We are the team of Casey at the Bat, of Marvelous Marv, of the Miracle of ’69, of You gotta believe, of the Miracle of the Mook. We have a Big Tent. Reconsider, and come aboard.

  67. Dave says:
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    Reyes cleared to return to camp… via Twitter @bradcomo

  68. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    “Giants optioned LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Joe Martinez to triple-A today.”

  69. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    Todd Wellemeyer has been named the Giants’ fifth starter to enter the 2010 season.

  70. Nate Marcum says:
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    @Simply Fred: Thanks Fred…I was targeting Bumgarner as my end of rounds flier, even took him as Mr. Irrelevant in the NFBC, but it looks like all for naught. Who am I kidding, Todd Wellemeyer will last until about May.

  71. HalLeeDay34 says:
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    Allnuts- First off great name. Other than that I don’t think were going to agree. Philly born and raised I have to hate everything New York. Reyes and his handshakes make me sicker than the thought of having to bang Kirstie Alley. Don’t get me wrong I hate the Yankees too. I’m from Philly there is plenty of hate to go around. A-Rod is my most hated professional athlete closely followed by Kobe. I’ve learned that you can’t let the hate make your decisions in the all important world of fantasy baseball. I have Cano, Granderson and even took Beltran in the 15th so I’m hoping he has a great season on a bad team. It’s all love on the comment section though. The only place where Phils and Mets fans can get along. I’m on my way to pick up Phil Hughes now, choking back a little vomit for my 3rd Yankee.

  72. Gareth says:
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    The Mets fan in me couldn’t be happier about the Reyes news. The fantasy baseballer in me wishes I had known this half an hour ago when he fell to pick #62. Oh well, I did snare Hanley with #3.

  73. sean says:
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    Sandy Duncan just got sent to the minors. Take that, CHONE!

  74. Gareth says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: How you feel about Reyes is how I feel about Victorino. In fact, how you feel about A-Rod is how I feel about Victorino. I hate hate hate him. He fell to pick #113. I couldn’t – COULDN’T – grab him.

  75. Nate Marcum says:
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    As drafts grow nearer, and the reports of Pujols’ back get worse and worse, somebody is gonna reap the benefits of a scared owner letting him slip past the first couple picks. He is getting an MRI and injections for the pain, but he played almost every game last year with a wonky elbow, the guy is a beast, and don’t get scared off by all these reports coming out.

  76. mikey boy324 says:
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    just reported that jose reyes’s levels are back to normal and hes gonna be back in camp tommorow finally some good news

  77. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    On Reyes: If he’s still around in the 6th, I’ll take him — then pair him with a later round speed guy like Mount Everth or Alcides the Mercedes, in case of catastrophe. I’d much rather have that combo than, say, Rollins or Jeter in the 3rd.

    Also: I have not been up on my Mets news, clearly. Beltran in the 15th? I know he’s coming off knee surgery and won’t be back until May, but does he also have the Ebola virus? Did he lose a foot to gangrene? Is he pregnant?

    I’d rather have four-maybe-months of Beltran than Octavio Dotel.

  78. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @HalLeeDay34: This is classic: “Don’t get me wrong I hate the Yankees too. I’m from Philly there is plenty of hate to go around. ”

    Sounds like A-Rod is definitely on your IRDTOTG* list.

    *I’d Rather Die Than Own This Guy

  79. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: LMAO… because the Mets get by on their farm system and miniscule payroll? When players stop demanding money for their services, I’m sure the Steinbrenner’s will be happy to stop paying them. In the meantime, spending the money your fans funnel into your team seems like a good thing, to me. Isn’t that exactly what other owners are excoriated for NOT doing?

  80. Mark says:
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    Hey Grey, I wonder your thoughts on Rick VandenHurk and Brett Myers? ‘

    Myers leaves the Phillies, slightly better ballpark, but are the days of Myers being a nice strikeout guy(say high 7′s per nine) with an ERA in the 3′s over?

    Now VandenHurk is flying under the radar, but showed flashes last year of being a nice pitcher especially in Florida and in the NL. Any thoughts of Vandenhurk and his potential this year?

  81. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @mikey boy324: I bet the NY Post feels pretty stupid, now! Oh, wait, it’s owned by Rupert Murdoch… it has no shame.

  82. HighNOutside says:
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    Yeah, dunno where Reynolds is getting drafted in the second round. I’ve done three drafts and he came in around 45 every time, which I think is pretty solid value.

  83. mikey boy324 says:
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    the post is a joke there gonnna be outta business shortly.. as a diehard met fan im just happy that we got good news and hes not out till july being that hes returnig to basbeball activities tommrow it looks like he only gonna be out 1-2 weeks what round now would drafting him be good value?

  84. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: ‘Tran is working out already – he will be back before Reyes. If you get him on the 15th round, you have a baaagain.@HalLeeDay34: Remember, I’m Allnuts All-The-Time. I have nothing against Philly except the fans. Almost as bad as the scene in 1884 when the New York Gotham fanatics, playing against the Boston Beaneaters, engaged in a detestable attack on that man in blue, described as a “wild and uncontrollable rabble” by Sporting Life, seized alternate umpire Tom Gunning, attempted to tear him limb from limb, but were engaged by the police before mayhem occured, finally being driven off after a pitched battle. Of course, Gunning had been shading his calls towards the Beaneaters, as he was in mortal fear of their captain, Black Jack Burdock, with good reason; he was described by his peers as “fit for a lunatic asylum.” Of course, 1884 was the year that Old Hoss Radbourn led the Providence Greys to the pennant, winning an astonishing 59 games, a feat that never has, and certainly never will, be broken.

  85. GTS says:
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    Which two should I hold in my 2 minor league slots: Jesus Montero, Mike Stanton, and/or Bumgarner.

  86. quimmy says:
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    @grey:

    in my 14 team league I have Chris Davis and Laroche as my 1B and CI.
    My SP are – Josh Johnson, Hamels, Uballs, Anderson and J. Sanchez.

    I was offered: Berkman and Oswalt for Hamels and Davis.

    Thoughts?

  87. In Steve’s and my slow draft, Crapalanco and Robot Jones just got drafted back to back…

  88. mapwheel says:
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    Poor Aramis never stays healthy. People draft him on potential and not reality.

    Hey, you can always hope he plays the full season, but you know the old saying, “wish in one hand and shit in the other and see which one gets filled first”

  89. Sigh, you know its almost baseball season when Joe Morgan is on ESPN.

  90. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: No doubt that the Mets spend their money poorly much of the time, such as spending billions and billions on Ollie Perez. Their medical staff would show improvement if they hired Groucho Marx, in his role as the Horse Vet in Day at the Races. Of course the Yanks spend the most money, by far, but they hardly compensate their fans. They charge inordinate prices for their seats, many of which were empty last year. And the enormous gap between the haves and have nots in baseball is not being solved by a luxory tax. Small market teams can compete, if they have an ingenious management, brilliant scouts, and a three -five year margin where all their players develop at about the same time, before they become free agents. The Marlins. Twins, and A’s seem to be able to do this, and the Rays as well. Afterwards, of course, they need to sell all their studs, and start from scratch again. I don’t think that this is a particularly good thing for baseball.

  91. My boy Orel reading O Perez the riot act.

  92. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Elijah: Pray he gets laryngitis.

  93. @Paulie Allnuts:

    I think it was in a good way, kinda that he needs to get his ass in gear speech and start pitching like his staff says he can. Orel’s a standup guy, one of my alltime favorites.

  94. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Beau: I wouldn’t.

    @brad: Good balanced hitters, that’s solid. Better that than guys that give you all or nothing. Your starters could be tremendous, but they are also pretty risky. I like them, but there could be some issues with them.

    @Dave: Nice!

    @Simply Fred: Thanks for the heads up!

    @sean: Ha!

    @mikey boy324: Sweet!

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Ha!

    @Mark: I wouldn’t touch either.

    @GTS: Stanton, Bumgarner

    @quimmy: I’d want Hamels side.

    @mapwheel: Very poetic.

    @Elijah: Ha!

  95. *stuff says he can

  96. Mikey boy324 says:
    (link)

    Grey there actually saying on ny radio that if things go well he could be ready for opening day with this news what round would you draft him and feel comfortable?

  97. *stuff says he can@Paulie Allnuts:

    Well hes only given up 1 run so far, could be worse.

  98. @HalLeeDay34:

    I thought Philly guys were used to fat chicks. *ducks*

  99. Tom Reale says:
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    Good to see ManRam on the list. Hopefully the word of the day is the start of a trend. How about, what was once aloofness has become straight doofus! His hebetude is no longer cute! His apathetic attitude is a pathetic way to play the game! Whew. Channeling a little Johnny C. there. Speaking of Johnny, Mr. Sanchez is coming on hotter than a bhut jolokia!

  100. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mikey boy324: I’ve drafted him three times already. I haven’t heard anything that would change that.

    @Tom Reale: That’s awesome.

  101. @Tom Reale:

    bhut jolokia<– Had to google that, nicely done.

  102. stanley says:
    (link)

    8 Team NL Only Points Keeper League, everyone was hoarding pitchers

    Active Batters
    Barajas, Rod C NYM
    Votto, Joey 1B CIN
    Johnson, Kelly 2B ARI
    Sandoval, Pablo 3B SF
    Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA
    Kemp, Matt CF LA
    Pence, Hunter RF HOU
    Upton, Justin RF ARI
    Hart, Corey C. RF MIL

    Active Pitchers
    Billingsley, Chad SP LA
    Cueto, Johnny SP CIN
    Dempster, Ryan SP CHC
    Haren, Dan SP ARI
    Rodriguez, Wandy SP HOU
    Sanchez, Jonathan O. SP SF
    Wells, Randy SP CHC

    Reserve Batters
    Gonzalez, Carlos LF COL

    Reserve Pitchers
    Bush, Dave SP MIL
    Lilly, Ted SP CHC
    Martinez, Pedro SP PHI
    Padilla, Vicente SP LA
    Richard, Clayton SP SD
    Young, Chris R. SP SD

    Y. Molina, Barmes, Morales, Posey, Jaime Garcia all available on the wire, should I pick any of them up? Who to drop Pedro and Padilla?

  103. quimmy says:
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    @grey: thx.

    what do you think about:

    fielder/lowe for jroll/hamels?

  104. stanley says:
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    @stanley: Oh and do you think its a solid team?

  105. Millsy says:
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    @Sean

    Understand the reason for the James large counting stat numbers. It’s not that I think they’re ridiculous, but I was trying to find the highest number of HR i could from a projection system. I tend to adjust for playtime in my head when I think other systems are a bit low on the projected play time side, but not necessarily to the point of the James projections. I think using all together can be very informative.

  106. Mike says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    What are your thoughts on “doubling up” on a position? I have the 8th pick in a 10 team H2H league. Was thinking about taking Longoria 8th overall, then maybe Howard/Cabrera (whoever is available), then shooting for Zimmerman with the 28th overall pick. I’d put him in my CI slot. Is this too risky? Or would I be putting my leaguemates at a disadvantage because 3B is thin this year?

    Thanks for the great advice!

  107. @Mike: Why bother trying to deny 1 extra 3B to your opponents? There’s no guarantee he’d end up on a competitive team anyway…and I think you’d be better off using that pick to take the best available player to complement your first 2 picks.

  108. Mr2Bits says:
    (link)

    Grey, can you help me out with what I need.

    C Víctor Martínez (7th Round Keeper)
    1B Derrek Lee (5th Round Draft )
    2B Robinson Canó (2nd Round Draft)
    3B Pablo Sandoval (12th Round Keeper)
    SS Asdrubal Cabrera (8th Round Draft)
    OF Michael Cuddyer ( 9th Round Draft)
    OF Denard Span (11th Round Draft)
    OF Kyle Blanks (19th Round Draft)
    Util Garrett Jones (23rd Round Keeper)
    Bench : Matt LaPorta (24th Round Keeper)

    SP Roy Halladay (1st Round Draft)
    SP Jon Lester (3rd Round Draft)
    RP Rafael Soriano (6th Round Draft)
    RP Joakim Soria (10th Round Keeper)
    P Matt Garza (13th Round Keeper)
    P Brad Lidge (15th Round Draft)
    P Octavio Dotel (14th Round Draft)
    P Hiroki Kuroda (16th Round Draft)
    BN Franklin Morales (FA in anticipation of Lidge starting on the DL)
    BN Jorge De La Rosa (17th Round Draft)
    BN Daisuke Matsuzaka (18th ROund Draft)
    BN Justin Duchscherer (20th Round Draft)
    BN Wandy Rodríguez (21st Round Keeper)
    BN Rick Porcello (22nd Round Keeper)

    Your input is appreciate

  109. Back to Minors says:
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    Reyes is back.

  110. Tom Reale says:
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    @Elijah: I do NOT recommend them.

  111. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Mike: i think it’s whether zimmerman is the best player regardless of position when you pick 3rd. if you think zimmerman is the best fantasy hitter available grab him, but don’t just take him because you wanna hoard 3B.

    for instance, in an auction draft the other night, i inherited a team and kept fielder from it. but in the draft, adgonz was going cheaper than i believed he should, so instead of letting him go cheap to someone else, i threw a bid out and won him for below value. now he’s my util guy, and i pretty much sealed up HRs between him and fielder. part of that was also knowing i wasn’t willing to bid what it would take to land guys like kemp or braun or hanley, and know i’d rather just grab lind and pence and players like that a little later for cheaper.

  112. Mike says:
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    @Mark Geoffriau: I understand your point. I am not really all that concerned about denying 1 extra 3B to my opponents. I guess I have a man crush on both Longoria and Zimmerman and would like both on my team if possible. I guess my question is more about the risk involved with taking 2 of the same position within your first 3 picks. Is it more important to fill out your roster or take the best player available?

  113. sean says:
    (link)

    @Millsy: It was helpful to me to compile the various projections for the players including ABs, obtain a composite AB projection and then adjust the projections accordingly. I then prepared a composite projection for each player, which, in my opinion, helps to take most of the risk out of lofty or lowly projections. It was a major time-suck, but I did that back in December and January when I was thirsting for baseball.

    Despite all that work, I tend to think that most projection systems are trying to force square pegs through round holes. Based upon historical data, we know that the elite power hitters are going to be somewhere around 45 HRs with a tier below them above 30 but below 40. With that information, it’s more about predicting which players are going to fill the projection slot.

    The same is true, perhaps even more so, for pitchers. We know that the top pitchers are going to flirt with 20 wins and the closers with 50 saves. Projections slot accordingly.

    To make a long story short, I’m starting to agree with Shandler that we spent too much time agonizing over whether player A is going to hit 35 or 37 HRs and analyzing the predictive qualities of a projection system based upon that. When we get bogged down in projections, are missing the forest for the trees. That’s all the more reason why I like Grey’s projections. They don’t pretend to be an exact science, but they do a great job of ballparking players.

  114. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @stanley: Were you hoarding too? Looks like you did pretty either way. Your team is pretty stacked for an NL-Only one. If you can get anything out of your reserve pitchers (though I’m not sure you can), your team should be the one to beat.

    @quimmy: I’d want the Rollins side.

    @Mike: I wouldn’t do that.

    @Mr2Bits: No idea how many teams.

    *********TAKE FOLLOWUPS FOR ME TO THE NEWEST POST*******

  115. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: No argument from me on any of those points… especially the ticket prices. There was an interesting article in the Daily News (if I remember correctly) last year, in which the author compared the cost of taking in a game at the new Yankee Stadium with his wife and 2 kids to the cost of driving them all down to Baltimore for a weekend and watching the Yankees play at Camden Yards. Take a guess which one was cheaper…

    My only gripe is when people act like it’s Steinbrenner’s job to fix MLB. His job is to, within the confines of the MLB rules, put together the best team possible, period. (<– see, there's the period)

    Damn, I forgot… it's also his job to make sure Bernie Williams can hock his shitty CD all over the place.

  116. Mr2Bits says:
    (link)

    12 team keeper H2H. This is the 5th year. FA to add include the following(few deep sleepers excluded, any ideas would be helpful)

    Fowler
    Morgan
    Damon
    Rivera
    Hart
    Wells
    Stubbs

    Pitchers
    Wells
    Marcum
    Maholm
    Lohse
    Blackburn
    McCarthy
    Kawakami

  117. Terrence Mann says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Fair enough. I’ll concede that Cruz won’t play 162 games. But he did put up 33 HR in 128 games last year. Granderson averaged .280 2006-2008. Is he a .275 hitter or a .250 hitter? (See how I did that? I attempted to up-Grey Grey!)

    Anyway, given the choice of the three players, I’d obviously take Sizemore. He was progressing every season and played 157+ games 2005-2008. I just don’t see the value taking Sizemore in the 2nd round when Granderson and Cruz are there in the 4th/5th. I guess it’s a minimizing risk attitude.

  118. Andre says:
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    Spot on Grey. I own both Hill and Sandoval in my league but I kept them at the expense of 21st and 11th round picks respectively. I think you can add Ichiro to that list. It’s an even numbered year and I don’t see him running as much as he used to.

    As for V-Mart I have a question. In what order would you draft these guys in a 6×6 H2H league that counts OBP and QS:

    Ellsbury
    Sizemore
    Sabathia
    V-Mart
    Pedroia
    Bay
    Jeter
    Ichiro
    Cano
    Haren
    Granderson
    Markakis
    Beckett
    Cain
    Nelson Cruz

    I have Pujols, Hill, Sandoval, Weiters and Wainwright kept from last season.
    I’m thinking of going either Pedroia or Jeter then Beckett or Cain. One thing that I think about when considering V-mart though is addition by subtraction. Having V-Mart means one more opponent has a fairly weak catcher playing every day – and I expect The Sox to have V-Mart play some 1B and DH in order to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible. I think position scarcity plays an even bigger role when considering who to draft in H2H. What say you’s?

  119. I apologize for not going through all 119 comments if you addressed this, but can you share your rationale for Headley doubling his hr and adding 28 points of batting average? Using these projections you draw a comparison to Sandoval, who has hit .330 for the last couple of years and already has achieved 25 hr power….at the age of 23.

    yr fthfl srvnt,

    Malacoda

  120. Matt Crapps says:
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    This post aged nicely. Strong picks.

  121. fitz says:
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    Amazing picks. All of those guys underperformed their ADP dramatically. Well done.

Comments are closed.