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Before I start digging into 2011 fantasy baseball projections, I thought I’d use up some blog space to look back at 2010.

I’ve calculated the total value of each player by taking their total value as measured by my Point Shares metric (a Point Share represents the estimated difference in an average team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position).  I converted each player’s Average Draft Position (ADP) to an ‘Expected Point Share’ metric and subtracted that from their final calculated value in a 12 team mixed league.  So if a player outperformed his draft position, he’s in the positive.

The full results are here.  There are links on the page for 2010 Player Raters for MLB 10, 12, 14, and 16-team leagues.

Below represents the best values across the various roster spots.  I’ve created two ‘All-Star’ teams:  one for players drafted in the top 100 and one for players drafted outside the top 100.  If there were no players who outperformed their draft position, I kept the slot null.   As  you can see below, 2010 was a bad year for ‘Top 100′ catchers and relievers.  Top 100 SPs had a solid year with 12 of the 21 providing positive returns (relative to draft position) and only two complete flameouts (Beckett and Vazquez).

As for the worst values, it was a positively brutal year for Top 100 second basemen as five of the eight picked in the top 50 had disappointing to very disappointing returns (Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia, Roberts, Hill with Uggla, Cano and Phillips the other three).  The same goes for third baseman as Sandoval edged out Beckham, A-Rod, Reynolds, and Figgins for the honor of worst return.  Eleven 3Bs were taken in the top 100 and only Michael Young provided a positive return (Wright was close – with an ADP of 14 and final rank of 19).

2010 Best Draft Values (ADP Top 100) 2010 Best Draft Values (ADP>100)
Pos Name Value ADP Final
Rank
Name Value ADP Final
Rank
C None John Buck +4.3 PS 373 124
1B Joey Votto +3.5 PS 29 6 Paul Konerko +6.3 PS 202 17
2B Dan Uggla +3.9 PS 87 14 Kelly Johnson +6.0 PS 273 45
SS Troy Tulowitzki +0.4 PS 17 15 Alex Gonzalez +5.1 PS >400 108
3B Michael Young +1.3 PS 95 60 Jose Bautista +13.3 PS >400 3
OF Josh Hamilton +4.0 PS 54 10 Carlos Gonzalez +9.8 PS 124 1
OF Carl Crawford +2.0 PS 15 8 Chris B. Young +7.0 PS 301 35
OF Hunter Pence +1.9 PS 84 37 Angel Pagan +6.6 PS >400 74
OF Shin Soo-Choo +1.3 PS 66 41 Delmon Young +6.0 PS 323 55
OF Andrew McCutchen +0.7 PS 86 66 Drew Stubbs +5.6 PS 287 55
CI Miguel Cabrera +0.9 PS 10 7 Aubrey Huff +5.7 PS 310 59
MI Robinson Cano +3.4 PS 46 11 Rickie Weeks +5.3 PS 187 27
UT Adam Dunn +0.6 PS 65 49 Adrian Beltre +5.3 PS 178 25
SP Adam Wainwright +5.2 PS 57 5 Trevor Cahill +7.0 PS >400 62
SP Roy Halladay +4.3 PS 24 2 Mat Latos +6.9 PS 331 43
SP Ubaldo Jiminez +4.0 PS 99 20 Colby Lewis +5.4 PS <400 100
SP Felix Hernandez +2.7 PS 32 9 David Price +5.1 PS 172 29
SP John Lester +1.9 PS 58 26 Roy Oswalt +5.0 PS 159 23
SP Matt Cain +1.4 PS 92 53 C.J. Wilson +5.0 PS 366 96
RP Joakim Soria +1.9 PS 100 52 John Axford +6.4 PS >400 78
RP Mariano Rivera 0.0 PS 72 73 Billy Wagner +6.0 PS 146 12
RP None Hong-Chih Kuo +5.7 PS >400 95
RP None Tyler Clippard +4.4 PS >400 107


2010 Worst Draft Values (ADP Top 100) 2010 Worst Draft Values (ADP>100)
Pos Name Value ADP Final
Rank
Name Value ADP Final
Rank
C Matt Wieters -4.8 PS 94 341 Bengie Molina -5.1 PS 166 482
1B Lance Berkman1 -7.4 PS 59 429 Todd Helton -5.7 PS 194 530
2B Brian Roberts -10.4 PS 47 543 Jose Lopez -5.0 PS 119 422
SS Jimmy Rollins -8.3 PS 20 320 Asdrubal Cabrera -5.1 PS 152 463
3B Pablo Sandoval -6.4 PS 39 273 Chipper Jones -4.6 PS 131 409
OF Jacoby Ellsbury -16.3 PS 19 608 Nolan Reimond -9.1 PS 192 602
OF Grady Sizemore -14.4 PS 28 600 Brad Hawpe -7.2 PS 109 521
OF Nate McLouth -9.8 PS 91 576 Carlos Gomez -4.5 PS 219 494
OF Jason Bay -9.4 PS 26 433 Nyjer Morgan -4.5 PS 127 395
OF Carlos Beltran -9.3 PS 90 561 Chris Coghlan -4.2 PS 189 452
CI Prince Fielder -6.3 PS 8 94 Alex Gordon -6.5 PS 211 566
MI Chase Utley -8.3 PS 4 118 Everth Cabrera -5.8 PS 223 548
UT Dustin Pedroia -6.5 PS 36 267 Chris Davis -11.5 PS 157 608
SP Josh Beckett -9.8 PS 77 562 Brandon Webb —- 134 n/a
SP Javier Vazquez -8.4 PS 60 486 Erik Bedard —- 225 n/a
SP Zack Greinke -5.9 PS 31 220 Scott Kazmir -8.2 PS 175 587
SP Dan Haren -3.9 PS 41 151 AJ Burnett -7.0 PS 129 532
SP Tim Lincecum -3.5 PS 12 69 Jair Jurrjens -6.0 PS 141 492
SP Johan Santana -2.9 PS 44 117 Jake Peavy -5.3 PS 107 413
RP Joe Nathan —- 75 n/a Chad Qualls -4.7 PS 205 490
RP Jonathan Broxton -3.4 PS 69 197 Trevor Hoffman -4.1 PS 167 423
RP Francisco Rodriguez -1.0 PS 83 104 Mike Gonzalez -3.5 PS 193 412
RP Jonathan Papelbon -0.9 PS 67 92 Kerry Wood -1.3 PS 221 291
1 Kendry Morales ‘won’ with a -9.61 PS (52nd ADP, 514 in value)
but I feared he might celebrate the honor and reinjure himself.


  1. Dr. Orlando Schadenfreude says:
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    Is it bad that I looked at the 2010 Worst Draft Values (ADP Top 100) column and saw most of the players I wanted to target this year?

  2. Simon says:
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    I wonder what percentage of the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Owner Champions had CarGo on their teams last year. Was in 3 leagues had him in all them and went 2 for 3.

  3. Dingo says:
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    @Dr. Orlando Schadenfreude: It’s all about the bounceback! Of course, it depends on whether you’re actually able to draft the player close to last year’s value, rather than this year’s projected value. Some players seem to cling to their name value, even when their recent performance has been crap.

    Rudy, this is an awesome table! One comment – it looks like some of the numbers in the last three columns of the linked table are off (>>400, 589, -189 for Mark Teixeira, for example).

  4. anon says:
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    I’m actually impressed by Ellsbury for being able to outsuck Sizemore last year.

  5. carlos marmLOL says:
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    this is why you MFers are so great. while ESPN posts pablum in April on some “Draft Jacoby Ellsburry in the 1str round! Steals are worth more than HRs!” then moves on football, you guys post strong projections and values AND revisit a year later to see what went wrong and what went right.

  6. Rabbit says:
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    I guess the fact that I had eight players from my money league team fall into the Worst Draft Value list explains why I didn’t finish in the money last year. Aarghh.

    OK, Rudy, so you have the data; any lessons to be drawn from this that we can use for the future? First, seems to me that you have to exclude the injured players from consideration; except for obvious injury risks like Glass Chipper or Bedard, I am not sure how you can predict that an injury is likely to affect a player like Utley or Ells before it happens. Next, it’s probably not all that helpful to the readers of this site to warn them to avoid declining players who have inflated ADPs because of past Name Recognition, like Rollins or Beltran. I’d be more interested in whether any lessons can be drawn from the disappointing performance of players like Fielder, Haren, Reimold, or the Cabrera boys–any way to spot this year’s versions of those guys? Or is it just plain luck?

    On the overperforming side, it seems like you have a group of young talented guys who busted out (e.g. CarGo, Votto), guys who responded well to changed conditions (e.g. Kel Johnson, El Senator) and guys who were injury risks but able to stay relatively healthy (e.g. Hamilton, Weeks). Once again, it seems that saavy owners (with the assistance of sites like this one) can spot players who may potentially fall into these three groups. But how do you explain/spot beforehand Krispie Young’s resurgence, or Konerko’s, or Huff’s, not to mention the inscrutable Bautista? Again, is it just luck at work here? I guess I am feeling a little frustrated because for a couple years in a row I feel like I have done my due diligence, drafted well, and then have been out-lucked by a few owners who have picked up these unforeseen overperformers. Help me, Rudy; you’re my only hope.

  7. polczek5 says:
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    This is awesome! Great job Rudy. Thanks for following through on your work. By the way, how did you convert ADP to PS? Did you take the PS distribution and re-rank according to ADP, or did you assume some normal distribution for PS? Actually, I’d be interested to know if PS typically follows a normal distribution in the first place. Might be interesting to look at that by position – could point to which positions are weak/strong/top-heavy/etc.

  8. @Simon: My next post will look into player ownership amongst the Razzball Commenter leagues. Some interesting findings…

    @Dingo: Good catch. Will fix that soon and add a comment when fixed.

    @carlos marmLOL: thanks! look out for the next post where I test these results against the ownership in RCL leagues! (something ESPN doesn’t do….and I don’t know why)

    @Rabbit: I need to crank out the post (and provide the Google Doc for everyone) that shows player ownership in Razzball leagues. Once done with that, I’m going to review both the modeled values (this exercise) and the actual results (the 21 Razzball Commenter leagues) to see if there are trends.

  9. @polczek5: Thanks. I converted ADP to PS by looking at the 12-team player rater. So I took the player who finishes with the highest value (CarGo) and said that was the expectation for the #1 ADP (Pujols). The 12-team player rater link (as well as 10, 14, and 16 team) is included in the link I provided in the post.

    When looking at the Point Share distributions per position, note that position scarcity (or lack thereof) is taken into account. So a player with the same stats will be worth a lot more as a Catcher than a 1B (something ESPN Player Rater doesn’t account for). In general, I’ve found that most positions have similar curves. Check it out and let me know what you think…

  10. Pops says:
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    Napoli to the Rangers? Does this change his value at all?

  11. @Pops: Definitely. Texas is a much better hitting park than Anaheim. ESPN Park Factors (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor) say Texas had 25% more HRs than Anaheim. I imagine there’s some bias in here (Anaheim pitchers > Texas pitchers, Texas hitters > Anaheim hitters) but I can see a 10-15% gain in his HRs (he only plays half his games at home).

    The other plus is he’s away from Scoscia who hates his bat/no glove game. A few more starts can’t hurt.

  12. tourinct says:
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    Great stuff Rudy! Looking at my teams from last season pretty much tracks with success or failure. Thanks.

  13. Giant JJ says:
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    What do you think of Duchscherer? He’s will sign somewhere soon and he is insisting on starting.

  14. Eddy says:
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    @Rudy Gamble:

    I’m doing a 14 team H2H money league this year for the first time, so I’m definitely going to need your point shares Rudy!

    Any estimation as to when they’ll come out?

  15. Chunk says:
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    Something came up and I won’t be able to participate in Wednesday night’s mock draft. 1 spot left, thought I’d let everyone know. Hopefully I can make the next one!

  16. Giant JJ says:
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    I want in, how would i sign up? Is the draft room iPad compatable?

  17. GopherDay says:
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    @Giant JJ: There is still one opening.

    It is at mockdraftcentral.com

    Razzmock
    8:30 EST
    Password: fatheadberry

    I highly doubt it is iPad compatible…You could check though.

  18. GopherDay says:
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    @Giant JJ: To join, make a free account and search for “razzmock”

    It’s the 7th spot, fyi.

  19. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Rudy Gamble:

    Thanks, Rudy for your typical superb column.

    I believe that Frequent Commenter Simply Fred was also doing research on last year’s RCL league, including examining the potential secrets of the top team in all RCL leagues.

    There is no other site that I am aware of that consistently gives this type of valuable information.

  20. @Giant JJ: Duchscherer is nothing more than a $1 speculative buy in AL-only.

    @Eddy: I’m thinking late February/early March for an ETA on Point Shares. Dependent on Dan @ BaseballThinkFactory to finish up his ZIPS projections (he’s finished 23 of 30 teams). Also need to get some reliable playing time projections…

    @Paulie Allnuts: You’re welcome! Yeah, it frustrates me to no end that bloggers on large sports sites don’t mine their data. It’s cool that we’ve been able to build up the commenter leagues (in 2010, we were at 21) to the point that we can do some analysis on it.

  21. The linked table has been fixed.

  22. carlos marmLOL says:
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    no CHONE this year.. i’m looking at freaking CAIRO projections. uggh. i might bail out of any $$ slow drafts until i see some Marcels. ZiPS would be OK too. what a luxury it was to have ’10 CHONE numbers back in November last year.

  23. Noonan says:
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    Of the worst Hitters drafted in the top 100 only Fielder and Sandoval did not miss significant time with injury.

    Aside from Roberts, Sizemore and Beltran who have suspect injury past the rest were just random acts (beltre running over ellsbury) who killed fantasy teams…how can we project this for 2011?

    Should we avoid drafting fat guys who appear to fall without injury?

  24. @Noonan: I don’t think there’s any pattern to injuries. I’ve tried identifying ‘risky pitchers’ in the past and haven’t seen any good predictors except that pitchers following their first full year of starting tend to take a step backwards because of injury, worse performance, etc.

    I’d also suggest avoiding premiums on any hitter without legit 25 HR power or pitchers without 200K potential. Most MIs and speed guys have little upside.

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