Fantasy Baseball Advice

Bud Norris | SP | Houston Astros | DOB: 3/2/1985 | 6-0 | 195 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | HOU #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America

The Cube: Control (27) | K-rating (90) | Efficiency (48)

Full name is David Stefan Norris Jr.  Mr. Norris is rather stocky with a larger/stronger lower body and is athletic – almost looks like a football player. One would think that this makes him a bit more injury free, but in 2008 he was on the DL from mid-May until early June with an elbow strain. However, other than this, his medical history is clean.

Bud has a fastball that he throws from 93 to 95 mph, but has been able to hit 98 several times before. When he pitched out of the bullpen, he was able to hit 97 and 98 almost regularly. He also throws the prototypical hard and short power slider, or simpler – a nasty biting slider – which he uses as an out pitch. These are two nice pitches but he struggles to throw a change-up, if at all. This leads many scouts to believe he would be better suited to pitch out of the bullpen – along with he tendency to change his delivery mechanics from pitch to pitch when he is fatigued. If he were to pitch from the bullpen, the best possible outcome would be a top-tier reliever and worst case scenario would be an inning eating middle reliever. Neither are positions to scoff at in real life, but that would limit his fantasy impact.

Here are his numbers (All stats that follow are as of July 5, 2009 ):

’06 (A-) 10.9 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 38 IP | .2 HR/9 | 3.79 ERA | 2.46 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .306 BABIP
’07 (A) 10.3 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 102 2/3 IP | .7 HR/9 | 4.56 ERA| 3.31 FIP | 1.3 WHIP | .331 BABIP
’08 (AA) 9.4 K/9 | 3.9 BB/9 | 80 IP | .9 HR/9 | 4.05 ERA | 3.83 FIP | 1.5 WHIP | .364 BABIP
’09 (AAA) 8.9 K/9 | 4.7 BB/9 | 93 IP | .6 HR/9 | 2.52 ERA | 3.58 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | .306 BABIP

The K-rate is nice, as is the homer rate; however, those are the best positives I can dig up from those numbers for him to be a top of the line starter (which he never will be, at best he would be a #3 or #4 starter). However, if one projects him as a reliever in the Joba Chamberlain mode, than he would be a nice 7th or 8th inning reliever.  I am a bit scared by that walk rate any way you look at it though. Each year it has increased, and significantly this past year. One thing to keep in mind is that a player can change some of their tendencies, and Houston’s Director of Player Development mentioned earlier in July that, “Norris has improved his composure and presence on the pitching mound this year.” That’s good, and his last few starts since that comment, Norris has pitched with a bit more control. His low ERA this year is a result of a high LOB% (80.3%).

At the end of this year he may not be a top, or even a starter like once envisioned, but he still has a bright future as a reliever, maybe (and this is just a thought that ran through my mind) even become the closer of the future… There is no reason for the Astros to bring him up before September because they aren’t going to need him before then. Here’s to spring 2010…

Mike Stanton | OF | Florida Marlins | DOB: 11/8/1989 | 6-5 | 205 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | FL #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (100) | Speed (13) | Contact (5) | Patience (67)

Holy Power Batman! Mike Stanton hit 39 homers last year in A-ball (granted he played in a field that hit better than pre-humidor Coors Field), and has 12 already this year between A+ and AA in 278 AB. I am not even sure how no one ever talks about him. Interesting factoid – He was offered a fully scholarship to play either wide receiver or defensive back for USC! Plain and simple, Mike Stanton the hitter (not the Yankee middle reliever) is a physical specimen!

He has been compared to Dave Winfield, and Baseball America says he has plus power (duh), plus speed (as demonstrated by his scholarship offers) and plays above average defense. Several scouts still say his power is raw, and needs to become a more refined hitter. That’s fair, he isn’t quite 20 yet and is hitting for a jaw dropping amount of power. Supposedly, his speed is going to translate into steals, but he has yet to develop those base stealing instincts according to the Marlins VP of Player Development. Anyway, here are his numbers:

08 (A) .293/.381/.611 | 468 AB | 11 BB% | 32.7 K% | .318 ISO | .355 BABIP | 39hr/97rib/4sb
09 (A+) .294/.390/.578 | 180 AB | 13.5 BB% | 25 K% | .283 ISO | .330 BABIP | 12hr/39rib/2sb
09 (AA) .214/.316/.418 | 98 AB | 10.9 BB% | 31.6 K% | .204 ISO | .258 BABIP | 5hr/11rbi/1sb

He walks at a decent rate, his ISO is stellar, but that K-rate is disgusting. He has struggled since being promoted to AA, and that should be expected. The end of the year totals at AA should improve, but he probably won’t hit for the same amount of power he hit last year. At least not yet.

I see a Mark Reynolds-type for his professional future, which I would say is a compliment. He might have a bit better defense, but he is more Reynolds than a Chris “K” Davis. Only time will tell. The way the Marlins handle their prospects, Stanton may see extended spring training time in 2010. Just for a quick chuckle, think of a lineup in two years (or even next year) with a developed Cameron Maybin, Hanley Ramirez, Stanton, an aged Uggla, and better than this year Cantu! That could be a rather scary lineup if the potential pans out.

With Wakefield headed to the DL with a bad back (can’t he throw his knuckleball while sitting down?), Clay Buchholz will step into the Sawx rotation.  In 99 innings of Triple-A, Buchholz had a line of 2.36/.98 and 89 Ks.  His walks were down this year in the minors, though he did walk 3 in his only major league start this year vs. the Blue Jays.  Buchholz should be owned in all leagues, 10 team or deeper.  If he pitches well vs. the Rangers (though I wouldn’t start him in all formats), he may become even better trade bait for your team.  I doubt Buchholz stays in the rotation the rest of the year and, even if he does, he had a 6.75 ERA last year.  I’d imagine this year you’re looking at around a 4 ERA.  Your ability to sell on Buchholz may close quicker than you can incorrectly spell his last name.  In keepers, I’d hold tight.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  A bit of housekeeping before we get into today’s roundup.  Razzball’s Fantasy football leagues are forming and we’ve unveiled our Fantasy Football Team Name Generator (with some additional categories that weren’t on the Fantasy Baseball Team Name Generator).  Okay, now for the roundup…

Roy Halladay – J.P. Ricciardi says the ace must be traded by July 28th or he won’t be moved.  As for why July 29th-31st wouldn’t work, Ricciardi cited airings of Top Chef Masters, then reruns of CSI: Miami and Bones.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu went FUBAR into the center field wall.  The Mariners are saying he’s day-to-day.  I have to assume he’s a-day-or-two-or-three-days.  The newspaper reporting this, The News Tribune, said when you saw the photo of The Big FraGu on the ground “you had to be absolutely freaking out.” Direct quote.  Hey, I’m no newspaper writer, but when did “absolutely freaking out” become AP style?  I blame Woodward and Bernstein.  That’s right, the guy who wrote “gloryholz” in his title is calling someone out for “absolutely freaking out.”  Deal with it!

Wladimir Balentien – HR yesterday filling in for the InJured FraGu.  If Balentien gets some time, then he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues or leagues that require you to have one player with the name Wladimir.

Jack Hannahan – 2 HRs.  He’s doing much better since he was demoted from the job of Nats closer.

Rick Porcello – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I know you ordered raw, but he’s done.  Also, Leyland’s saying he’s going to pull the plug on him to keep his innings down.

Braden Looper – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 K.  Good for Looper, but I feel bad for the guy who lugged all those cardboard Ks to the game.

John Lannan – Shutout vs. Guess who.  Hint the Padres were facing the Marlins.  Still nothing?  C’mon, the Metropolitans!

Oliver Perez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 BBs.  Perez is a pitching dynamo.  (Dynamo, as defined by Merriam-Webster’s, is a generator, especially one for producing direct current.  A dynamo is also rarely useful in modern days.)

Miguel Montero – HR yesterday as he bats .583 in the last 7 games and .380 in July.  He might be Pipp’ing Snyder.

Ervin Santana – 6 IP, 5 ER vs. the peasant Royals.  Belch.

Erick Aybar – 7-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Hitting .469 so far in July.  Johnny Olson, let’s see what’s behind schmohawk MI door number three… It’s Erick Aybar!  I picked him up in a 12 team league.  I suggest you do too.

Everth Cabrera – Speaking of MI schmohawks.  Steals aren’t worth this much to me.  I dropped him for the aforementioned Aybar.

Max Scherzer – 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks.  Wait, I know that line!  It’s Clayton Kershaw, right?  Wow, great impersonation, Scherzer.

Brian McCann – Hit his 10th homer yesterday.  Has a 33/10/46/.305/3 line on the year.  Member when you wanted to get rid of him because he was getting his eyes checked for two weeks?  Yeah, you.  Couldn’t be?  Then who?

Yunel Escobar – 2-for-4, 1 RBI.  He’s as hot as Erick Aybar (<–actually a compliment).

Sergio Mitre – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  If he gives that line every time out and gets the Win for the Yanks, they’ll be more than happy.  You should not be.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 1 ER.  If you told me in March, I’d not only own Blanton, but I’d be starting him at home and be happy about it, I would’ve called you a liar.  *phone rings*  Hello?  Yes, this is Grey… Who?  This is the Time Traveler’s Wife?  You told me in March I’d own Blanton?  Liar!

Jayson Werth – Hit his 21st home run yesterday to win the game in the… blah blah blah… You don’t care who wins, do you?  Werth’s on his way to a monster season.  As George Lucas tells his ILM peeps, put the emphasis on the monster.

Jimmy Rollins – HR yesterday, batting .375 in July.  I’m not going to tell you how many times I told you in June to buy Rollins.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks.  Honestly, he should be owned and talked about more, but there’s only so many letters I can type per day.  (About 12,700 +/- 20)  Cecil has solid stuff and the Ks aren’t a fluke.  He gets the Rays next (pass!), but he should get the A’s and the O’s after that, assuming everything stays quid pro bono unum.  He’s a decent spot start for those two. (Hey, sometimes to get the good starts, you gotta look ahead.)

Jed Lowrie – 1-for-3, 0 Runs and 0 RBIs.  T-Minus one day until I drop him.  Better hide under your desk.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER. Daily Roundup Mad-Libs, And the  ________ rolls on.

Mark DeRosa – Hit his first and second homers as a Card.  The trade is finally paying off!  Wait, the Cards lost.

Homer Bailey – 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  If there’s such a thing as a minor league fantasy baseball league that counts only minor league stats, I’d hold Bailey.  Everywhere else, belch.

Manny Ramirez – Left after being hit by a Homer Bailey pitch.  Good to see Bailey not happy with just pissing off his owners.  Manny is said to be day-to-day.

Andrew Bailey – Given up runs in his last two appearances and he’s suffering from a sore knee.  Save vultures activate… In the form of Michael Wuertz.

Jonny Gomes – HR yesterday, cause that’s what he do.

Bobby Jenks – 1 IP, 2 ER and now has given up earned runs in four of his last five outings.  I’d own Linebrink if you have room.  Something might be jenky with Bobby.

John Danks – Will miss a start with a blister issue.  He pointedly said it was a blister, not a cold sore.

This week’s Fantasy Roundtable is hosted by Adam Ronis at Strong Island’s most awesome paper -  Newsday.com.

THE TOPIC: Where would you draft David Wright in a mid-season league and why?

I veered toward the most bearish in the group – saying I’d take him somewhere in picks 20-30.  Grey put him at #14 in his midseason fantasy baseball rankings.  Click on the link above to see what some other Fantasy Bloggers thought…

Carlos Quentin returned to play yesterday after taking a two month sabbatical for a foot thingiemaboo-boo.  So he DH’d right? Nuh-uh.  Oh, Jim Thome? Nope, Ozzie Guillen in his infinitesimal wisdom DH’d Josh Fields in the nine hole.  It’s almost like Ozzie’s daring Quentin to stay healthy.  Why not give him a hot foot with an M-80?  So what can we expect from Quentin for the rest of the season?  Best case scenario, has him playing 5 games a week and hitting well (as he did in his rehab assignment).  Maybe 15 homers, good RBIs and a .270 average.  He’s not going to come without risk.  At any point, I’m expecting word that he’ll be out for the year.  How’s that for a ringing endorsement?  So through one game, Quentin’s 1-for-4 and healthy.  Now give us forty-five more games.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Now has an sub-2.50 ERA at home.  No one tell him his home is a hitter’s park.

Frank Francisco – Headed to the DL with pneumonia (the P’s silent).  C.J. Wilson will take over again.  Is it me or has C.J. Wilson been the closer for more of the year than Frank-Frank?  Francisco is supposed to return this Sunday as long as he battles pneumonia better than Jim Backus.  You are still larger than the cactus…

Nelson Cruz – Didn’t play Monday because of his fractured finger.  The Rangers said he’d be able to get back in the lineup.  The Rangers lied.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes a more serious issue than was originally let on, at least that’s what my thought bubble says.

Jonathan Papelbon – Complained of stomach pain and was vomiting.  Perhaps he saw a video of his own dancing.  If he misses any time, Saito should get vulture saves.  I’d expect Papelbon to be back by Wednesday at the latest.

John Smoltz – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Has alternated between good start and terrible start since he was activated.  I’d see if he continues that trend and pitches well next time out while he was parked on my bench.

Jed Lowrie – 0-for-3 and batted ninth.  T-minus two days and counting until I cut him from my teams.  To paraphrase Meg Ryan talking to Goose, “Hit for me now or I will lose you forever.”

David Murphy – 2-for-4, HR yesterday.  If you have the luxury of only playing him when he plays, he can be valuable.  Shoot, at this point he’s hitting better than Josh Hamilton.

Jason Schmidt – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners.  Finally, an NL West starter I can’t get behind.  He’s been out too long and his fastball was pretty bleh.  In an NL-Only league?  Sure.  Everywhere else?  You can do better/safer/less-Schmidty.

George Sherrill – Supposed to be traded from the Orioles.  I think Jim Johnson would step in if Sherrill moves onto a better place.  Baez may also enter the picture.  Hopefully Orioles fans don’t abandon the franchise if they lose Sherrill and Oscar Salazar in the same week.

Darin Erstad – Headed to the DL.  Hopefully you got him out of your weekly lineups about six years ago.

Vladimir Guerrero – Scioscia said, “Vlad would be limited to DH duties when he returns.”  I asked, “Why wasn’t he only DH’ing to begin with?”  Scioscia said, “The same reason I don’t play Wood.”  I said, “Oh.”

Ted Lilly – 4 IP, 7 ER.  A lefty vs. the Phillies shouldn’t have looked like any major league team vs. Sidney Ponson.  Lilly’s knee must still be bothering him.  He might end up on the DL.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 3 ER, 11 Ks.  Good to see the Braves call him back up from the minors. (I know why he was demoted; it’s called being facetious. And this is called exposition.)

Yunel Escobar – 2-for-3, Batting .500 since the All-Star break with two homers while alternating between the fifth and six hole.

David Hernandez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Don’t pick him up.  But he’s thrown three decent– Don’t pick him up.

Nick Markakis – Now has two homers in his last four games.  Sparkakis!

Felipe Lopez – 4-for-4 while leading off.  He wasn’t originally supposed to start because he couldn’t get to the game in time, so I removed him from my lineups.  Then the game was delayed and he started.  Sonavabench!

Jorge de la Rosa – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Impressive home start from a pitcher I highlighted in the 2nd half pitcher post.

Kevin Millwood – 6 IP, 2 ER.  If you had the cojones to start Millwood at home vs. the Sawx, then you deserved the Win.

Tim Stauffer – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks.  HodgePadre worth owning in 12 team leagues and deeper.

Nick Blackburn – 5 IP, 7 ER, As I said after his last start, which was a complete game, “There’s so many pitchers each week that are potential spot starters, even in deep leagues, that I just don’t want any part of a guy that has 51 Ks in just over 116 innings.” And that’s me quoting me!

Justin Morneau – 3-for-5, 2 HRs as the Twins and A’s combined for 8 home runs.  Did Oakland install a dehumidifier?

Jason Giambi – Hit the Disgraceful List as the A’s admitted that Giambi wasn’t the ballplayer they had the first time around.  They blamed his lack of backne.

Daric Barton – HR yesterday.  Pick him up in all AL-Only leagues and 12 team leagues and deeper if you need a corner man.  He may not do much more than he’s done so far in the major leagues (170 games – 78/13/56/.239/3), but he shouldn’t kill you on average and has decent power.  If he hits, he will probably keep the job even when Giambi returns.

Matt Holliday – 4-for-5, 2 HRs, 6 RBIs with his grand slam just clearing the outfield fence.  Now has 3 homers since the break.  Maybe he realized he needs to play well to be a trade target and get the eff out of Oaktown.  He should get to 20+ homers and a .300 average.  So when you’re going into the break with 8 homers (or Wright +3), there is some room for improvement.

Jonathan Sanchez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 Ks.  Johnny Vander Meer’s family can now stop following around the Giants.

Diamond is widely acknowledged as the most successful Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist in the world – applying the methods of female seduction to the art of winning fantasy baseball league championships. He travels cyberspace with his wing Saber, teaching those who play fantasy baseball how to be fantasy baseball players.

I don’t spend my days perusing the latest fantasy news.  I don’t spend my hard-earned money on the MLB package or pore through box scores like a Kabbalah follower.  I am not one of those ‘web experts’ that spouts advice from within the friendly confines of their mom’s basement or a Connecticut cubicle.

So who am I and why am I posting on Razzball?  Remember that trade you made last year that blew up in your face?  I’m the guy advising your trade partner.

He likely attended one of the many seminars I run across the country where I impart wisdom to my Fantasy Pickup Artists-in-Training via small group sessions.  And the question I get more than any other during my seminars:  “Diamond, can you teach me how to be an Alpha Trader?”  For your knowledge, an Alpha Trader is what we call a Fantasy Baseball Pick-Up Artist who can seduce another participant into making a trade that is more beneficial to your team’s needs than their own.

You may be thinking, “I believe a trade should help both teams equally” or “I’m in a league with friends and I don’t want to manipulate them just to win a league.” or “I’d rather do research and outsmart my trade partner rather than con them.”  That’s fine.  Organic trades and interactions with league members can often sprout positive results.  You may even win a league by chance (assuming you don’t play with any of my students).  So if you’re content being a ‘Trader Joe’ -  no need to read further.  But if you want to master the art of the fantasy baseball trade and transform yourself from winning by chance to winning by choice, you should study this article and bookmark it for later.

Assuming you absorbed the lessons from my previous post, you already have established a Fantasy Avatar™ that radiates power and confidence.  Working from this position of strength, we just need to identify our target.  Now most experts will tell you to peruse your roster and those of your leaguemates to find someone whose team is the inverse of your teams’ strengths/weaknesses.  Take a step back, Trader Joe, and think about what you really want to accomplish here.  You want to trade for superior players than those currently on your roster.  Everyone in your league must have at least one player that’s an upgrade over yours so why rule out anyone right from the onset?  Compatibility is not how we narrow in our target; susceptability is.

We do this by sending private messages to everyone in the league that allows us to gauge each competitor’s temperature.  We can then rank everyone based on the likelihood we can Trade Close on them.  This process is called Centigrading. This ‘Opener’ must be specially crafted to elicit a response that will determine trading temperature, maintain a position of power, and expose (or impose) any roster insecurities in your opponent.  Here are two Openers – let’s see if you can separate the effective from the defective:

1. Nice draft.  You snagged a few players right before I was going to (K-Rod, Cruz).  Good luck in the league and hopefully we can make a trade at some point.  Any thoughts?
2. Interesting draft.  A SS and 2B in the first four rounds – you must really like middle infielders.  Good thing you shored those up because it’s not like late round and free agent middle infielders ever work out (DeRosa, cough, Aaron Hill, cough, Jason Bartlett).  I like my team a lot but let me know if there are any players you want to overpay for…

So which do you think is the good Opener – #1 or #2?  Trick question – it’s neither.  The first one is too passive and complimentary.  The second is too heavy on the Negs.  Here’s the proper balance:

“I like how you held off on pitchers until the 10th round.  I had a couple of those pitchers on my wish list for upside 4th/5th/6th starters.  Glad to see someone else here has the balls to draft based on instinct vs. the default rankings.  Did any of my picks take you by surprise?”

See what I did here?  Let’s break it down line by line:

I think I’ve given you all that you can absorb in one reading.  In the next post, I’ll go over how to Centigrade the responses from your messages to zero in on our target and my wing Saber will share his secrets on Carrot Theory ™.