Fantasy Baseball Advice

Losing Gary Sheffield from your fantasy baseball team is about the best thing that could’ve happened to you if you owned him. This isn’t really a big fantasy story as far as Sheff goes.  He was a decrepit ex-roider.  (He was a great hitter to watch in his prime and it’s sad when great players devolve into nomadic, expensive NVORPS (negligible value over replacement players).  For every neat and tidy retirement like Ripken and Gwynn, there seems to be at least three like this.) The best thing that could happen is he ends his career at 499 homers.  Instant karma’s gonna get you.  What this does do is open up a spot for someone else.  As I said in the comments yesterday, “The Thames runs through it.”  Damn, I’m pithy.  I’m like Charles Nelson Reilly on The Match Game pithy.  RIP, C N R, you were one of a kind… Until me.  Marcus Thames is a source of 20 – 25 HRs and a .240 average.  Not bad for AL-only but not remarcusable.  He usually only plays against lefties, so I’m not sure if Sheff’s departure gives him that many more ABs.  He’s a masher to watch.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Joey Devine – Now Aching Joey Devine is off to see Dr. Freeze.  Ugh.  This never turns out well.  Casilla is Ziegler’s handcuff for the time being.

Scott Lewis – Gave up 10 runs in less than 4 innings.  As I said last week when he got the starting job, you don’t really want him.

Justin Duchscherer – Surgery went well.  A stitch without a hitch!  (Alliteration in lieu of wit.)  He’ll be back by June.  Wake me when I care.

Emmanuel Burriss – Webster won the 2nd base job!  The cherubby 2B stole 51 SB in a minor league season and SAGNOF is better at MI than OF.

David Murphy – As I said in my fantasy baseball 300, platoon this doode with Byrd.

Alexi Casilla – Why does every starting MI in the AL Central have a Russian first name?  The Tigers need Edgar back to round out the Perestroika.  Casilla’s hitting over .400 in spring training and he stole 50 SBS at A/AA in 2006 then 11 in a short stint with the Twins in 2007.  But he only stole 7 last year in 385 ABs with the Twins.  At MI, it doesn’t really matter if you need steals.

Alexei Ramirez – Fellow comrade was back in the lineup and again in the eight hole.  Diamonds are from Sierra Leone and Ozzie’s from Mars.  I’m not going to stress this yet, but if it continues into the season, Ozzie and I will be having words.

Russell Branyan – Having a nice spring.  When Branyan grows up, he wants to be Jack Cust.

Huston Street – Announced he’ll find out by Thursday if he’s the closer.  I think he gets over that last… *pinkie to mouth* Hurdle.

Ryan Braun – Left the game yesterday with a bruised thumb.  X-rays turned up negative.  I hear that means it’s positive.  Not sure why they can’t just say that.

Dexter Fowler – Made the club.  Keepers and NL-Only’ers rejoice.

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) was optioned to The Big Easy.  The opening for Bonifacio appears to widen.

Jeff Keppinger – Big trade came in off the wire yesterday.  Keppinger to the Astros.  Now that’s how to build a team up after losing Ausmus.  We were rooting for Bill Bialystock from Houston’s Double-A affiliate in Corpus Christi to get promoted and platoon with Blum.  Now that’s a platoon that can produce!

Geoff Blum – Seems pretty puzzled that he’s in the running for opening day 3rd baseman, saying “There’s an outside chance. I’m not going to believe it until I see my name in the lineup or they give me the OK…”  Geoff added, “I can’t believe my wife has sex with me.  I don’t believe she’s going to let me until I have it halfway in.”

We’re in the final days of fantasy baseball draft season and I’m taking a breather this weekend to survey my squads. This season’s drafts have been a lot more fun than last year’s as I’ve left the comfortable womb of undergrad 10-12 MLB drafts to graduate school formats like 12-team single league and 16-team mixed leagues. Going that deep in drafts makes you contemplate such unsavory questions as “Should I draft a Nationals pitcher?” and “Who will be Larussa’s go-to utility guy?”

I’ll cover the FantasyPros911 12-Team NL Blogger League in this post and cover the Yahoo! Roto Arcade 16-team mixed league in a separate one.

For those unfamiliar with FantasyPros911, they are running two expert leagues but relegated us to the ‘2nd division’ as revenge for being good friends with Chuck D who has been (unfairly) critical of their site.  Anyway, we were delighted to have the opportunity to test our fantasy baseballin’ skillz  with the other fine fantasy bloggers in this league.  (Complete draft results here)

It was the traditional auction style draft where you have $260 for your roster and 7 reserve picks (we’re still trying to finish up the last 2 rounds).  While I think my player values were right on (especially after comparing against the NL LABR Draft), I had a few missteps on draft strategy and execution.  I went in with a strategy of getting players at or below my estimated value and avoid big buck players in favor of a balanced squad.  My fellow bloggers helped me avoid any temptations to draft a top player by overbidding just about every top player.  Hanley went for a ridunkulous $54 (my valuation $39).  Albert Pujols for $49 (my valuation $36).  David Wright went for $48 (my valuation $41).  Jose Reyes for $45 (my valuation $38).  You get the idea.  This left me on the sidelines in the beginning except when it came to drafting catchers.  I don’t particularly like investing $ or high draft choices on catchers because they get more time off, have greater injury risk, and tend to slow down in the 2nd half.  But you have to mix things up a bit when 24 catchers are slotted to be drafted and I only had 13 at 300+ ABs.  After I got outbid for Brian McCann ($27), I snagged Russ Martin and Geovanny Soto for a combined $40 (I valued them at a combined $60).

After the first wave of great players, the bidding got more tentative and I started spending my dollars pretty quickly.  My biggest mistake was failing to realize you can’t move players down to your Reserve.  I survived clogging my 1B slot with a $3 Nick Johnson by snagging Cantu for my 1B/3B slot.  I lucked out after stupidly clogging my SS spot with Aaron Miles (I started and ended the bidding at $1) by snagging Alex Gonzalez in the reserve draft.  My early giddiness at getting Maybin for $13 might have led to risky OF bids on Colby Rasmus ($8) and Andrew McCutchen ($3).  Of course these guys could earn their value (they got drafted at the same $ in NL LABR) but I exposed myself to too much risk and could’ve used a safer, higher AVG guy to balance off Uggla and Reynolds.  I minimized some of that risk by snagging Seth Smith in COL with the first reserve pick but if these guys end up spending the 1st half either in the minors or on the bench, I’m in trouble.

As for pitching, I’m very happy with my starting staff.  I would’ve loved to anchor the staff with a Santana, Peavy, or Webb but I got two potential aces in Volquez and Cain for the price of one of those guys.  I’ll be lucky to get 150 IP out of Scherzer ($11) but I like him better than Cueto and Parra (both who went for $9).  I overpaid for Maine as it was later in the draft but had the money at the time.  Liking my depth at SP with Randy Wolf, Phillie prospect J.A. Happ and a Petco Park pitcher in Baek.  Not psyched about my relief crew of Francisco Cordero, Huston Street, and the two ugly options in STL (Franklin, McClellan) but hopefully I can get a couple points out of them.

I’ll write a couple posts throughout the year with updates from this league.  If I win, I get to move up to the ‘pert division in 2010.  I’m all a-tingle!

Coming to the Braves outfield this summer, Jordan Schafer — The outfielder to have when you’re drafting more than one.  I picked him up immediately in my sucky fantasy baseball league.  He sounds blahtastic! Maybe 10/15/.250 aka every outfielder that sits on waivers all year that has one good game and you contemplate picking up until you think better of it.  Some have compared Schafer to Sizemore, but he’s much greener.  Though he does know his way around striking out.  He’s jumping straight from Double-A where he K’d 88 times in 297 ABs.  CHONE and ZiPS project averages near .240.  He may turn into a Sizemore, but for 2009 he’s more of a Sighsmore <– pun!  He’s worth a flier in an NL-Only league.  But then again, so is Cha-Seung Baek.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Dexter Fowler – Razzball was abuzz yesterday with the news Fowler might make the team.  He really should, and Helton should retire so Ian Stewart can play, but whatever.  Fowler is the total package like Lex Luger.  He can run, mash and had the opportunity to go to Harvard.  He could go 12/30 and hit .285.  Then he’s a 30/30 guy in a year or two.  Keeper leagues should be all over him.  I have Spilborghs on a few teams, but I’d happily move on from him to see Fowler get the chance.  I grabbed Fowler in my Spilborghs leagues for backup until this shakes out.  I’ll drop whoever doesn’t get the job.  Fowler or Maybin? I still want Maybin for now, because Maybin is assured time, i.e., the Marlins play their prospects.  If Helton was on the Marlins, he would already be DH for an AL team.

Joey Devine – Aching Joey Devine is having a real hard time staying healthy.  Looks like Ziegler will start the year as the A’s closer.  He could hold the job for a while depending on effectiveness and Devine’s injury-prone-itude (Made Up Word Of The Day!).

Alexei Ramirez – Was hurt sliding into home, but didn’t seem too serious from the latest news I heard.  Now ease back on the hustle, Alexei.  You’re going to give me a heart attack.  Everyone’s calling you an Alfonso Soriano clone, but there’s no need replicate his injury-prone-itude.  Please don’t turn into this year’s bust.  Please.  I’m begging you now.

James McDonald – Some of you noobs (I called you a noob! Natch!) are going to think it’s Christmas in March, but I wrote a James McDonald sleeper post already.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious, I know.

Dustin McGowan – Jays unsure of his return.  Hey, that makes two of us!

Travis Hafner – Hit first homer of spring and he’s batting .227.  Good to see he’s rounding into mid-season form.

DeWayne Wise/Chris Getz – White Sox one and two hitters?  Alexei batting 8th?  Fields 9th?  Somebody, please help him!  Ozzie Guillen’s gone crazy!

Jason Motte – LaRussa said Motte would see some save chances.  Way to clear that up!  I think Franklin still gets involved in this mess.

J.D. Drew – Will bat fifth for the Sawx.  I think people underrate Drew.  He’s not a bad 4th to 5th outfielder.

David Purcey – I’m not buying into his solid spring training numbers.  I call shenanigans.

B.J. Ryan – Gaston’s talking about using Downs for some saves, but reading between the lines tells me he might just be goading Ryan to man up.  Either way, Downs is the handcuff you want as a Ryan owner.

David Delucci – Sticking with the newly-established David theme, David Delucci goes to the DL.  Lates, Double D.  Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo just got a bump — not a Studio 54 bump.

Emilio Bonifacio – Could be leading off for Florida.  Or Maybin.  Or Hanley.  Or Amezaga when he’s healthy.  I doubt Bonifacio sticks in leadoff, but SAGNOF.  I also really hope to one day see Alfredo Amezaga and Emilio Bonifacio in an Olive Garden commercial.  Now that’s Italian!

Just to clear my head the other day, I threw on some bicycle shorts, jumped in my El Dorado and went for a spin.  Cause that’s how guys with a ’stache roll.  If you didn’t know, know you do.  Consider yourself informed.  As I was rocking out to some Don Henley, I was thinking back on some guys that helped me win leagues last year.  Xavier Nady –  Thanks, X-Man!  Jonathan Broxton, you da man!  All She Wants To Do Is Dance DANCE! Thanks, Jurrjens, we had some good times!  Hey, Jermaine Dye, I enjoyed your production!  Can’t feel the HEAT… Coming off the STREET… Hey, Jayson Nix– Actually, you weren’t much of a help.  Hey, someone dropped Jon Rauch, don’t mind if I do.  Why such a long face, Ubaldo Jimenez?  I’ll own you… In the non-biblical way!  She wants to party, she wants to GET DOWN! Having worked up a bit of an appetite for some meat, I pulled off the freeway in search of an Arby’s.  As I hit the side streets, I thought two things:  number one, I had no idea what waiver position I was in when I used it for any of those schmohawks.  Number two, why was I in Anaheim?

The preceding was a fancy way of saying, “USE YOUR WAIVER CLAIM!”  (Caps for emphasis and the people reading over your shoulder.)  Who gives an effin’ eff in the eff hole what waiver claim position you’re in?  While you’re holding onto your waiver claim like Cowboy Jon from The Real World: Los Angeles holds onto his virginity, your leaguemates are going to be winning your league.  Because, guess what, Maverick?  Cowboy Jon is still a virgin and he’s like 45!

You don’t want to be Cowboy Jon praying Matt Wieters comes up in June while you sit in 8th place not even needing a catcher.   Or are you holding your waiver claim because you’re afraid someone is going to drop Prince Fielder?  Who are you, John Q. Law?  This is your job, why?  Wait, even better.  If you’re in a league with a guy who wears fancy dungarees and who would drop Prince Fielder, you shouldn’t be in that league.   If you need a guy for your roster, then claim him.  While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.  Remember…. Rebels been rebels since I don’t know WHEN… And all she wants to do is dance!

Back in early November, I said, “Gregg, Cubs Closer?”  Well, remove the question mark and call me Nostradumbass.  It’s not surprising at all to me that Marmol’s not going to be the closer to start the season.  There’s no reason in debating whether Piniella made the right decision.  Of course he didn’t.  Joking.  There’s points for both sides.  As I said the other day, do you wanna lose the game in the 8th or the 9th?  Either way, all you should concern yourself with is who is getting the saves.  The pickle here is Marmol is actually worth owning even if he only gets 5-10 saves all year.  So if you drafted Marmol, I’d hold him just to pad your pitching stats.  If you have Gregg, nice late pick in your draft.  You probably just fell into 35 saves.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow – Says he’s the closer.  And so it is.  You know what?  Every single one of you sitting around reading this blog for the last month could’ve stepped up and said you’d be the closer for the Mariners.  But what did you do?  You watered down the ketchup, made sure everyone’s coffee was hot and passive-aggressively stuck broken glass under your eighteen-year-old boss’s car tires.  You had to know with the top option being Miguel Batista that the job could’ve been yours.  Now march into your job and tell them you’re the new fry cook.  You got hot oil skillz!  Morrow’ll be fine as the closer if he can get/stay healthy.  Not sure what they’re going to do with Chad Cordero.  Maybe they can turn him into the starter Morrow should’ve been.

Jeff Clement – In a disappointing move, Clement was sent down.  You know where he went wrong?  He should’ve told the Mariners he was their catcher.  Guess Mattel can sponsor that Kenji doll night now.  Mommy, why doesn’t Kenji have a….THAT’S HIS ATHLETIC SUPPORTER!

Carlos Villanueva – As I mentioned in our fantasy baseball forums, Villanueva will fill-in for Trevor Hoffman.  Is Villanueva the best guy for the job?  Who knows?  Doesn’t matter.  SAGNOF.   Ours is not to reason why, ours is to pickup up the replacement closer and hope he keeps the job, unless of course you have Hoffman too.  You got to remember to Handcuff the Hoff!

Brett Gardner – Named opening day center fielder for the Yanks.  Back in November, I sowed the Gardner.

Matt Lindstrom – Appears to be on track to open the season.  Unless you have a pressing need somewhere, I’d hold Nunez for now.

Hanley Ramirez – Hit a HR.  Sore shoulder better?  You make the call!  Or not.

Chris Carter – Might get a shot to be a reserve outfielder for the Sawx.  The Red Sox were missing that Sci-Fi edge in the outfield since Manny left.

Troy Glaus – Rehab from shoulder surgery isn’t going so well.  Word is he might not make it back in late April/early May after all.  Bet they are regretting that Rolen for Glaus trade now!

Joe Mauer – Expected to miss the first month of the season.  The bad back must be from carrying the dwindling pennant hopes of Twins fans.  Let’s hope Liriano doesn’t strain his elbow picking up some of the slack.

Justin Duchscherer – Having elbow surgery.  Supposed to be out a month.  I forget what I said and I don’t feel like looking it up, but I think I pegged him for 5 starts this year.  Duchscherer’s elbow problems may have been exacerbated by autograph-seeking fans this spring.  You gotta stop at J.D., man!

Kelvim Escobar – I keep mentioning this guy, but in the last league I drafted I was able to snag him with like the 345th pick.  Um, he should be going before that.  When healthy (which he’s nearing), he’s good.

Chris Young – It’s a hard knock life being a 6′10″ pitcher.  More strain in throwing the ball down, bigger target to comebackers, lack of selection in Big & Tall shops, etc.  He’s been rather bad in Spring Training.  Perhaps it’s time to recognize that a pitcher can only go so far with a sub-90 MPH fastball and a unique propensity for fly ball outs.  Hopefully, he’ll come around and be solid, at least in Petco.

Mark Teahen – A positive reflection of the Royal roster is that there are less open spots to stash the mediocrity of Mark Teahen.  Last stop – 2nd base!  From a fantasy perspective, that’s not half bad.  Just 40% bad.

John Smoltz – He was due back June 1st but he’s ahead of schedule.  Now they are saying perhaps mid-May.  If you’ve got 2 DL slots in your league, might as well stash him in one.

Taylor Teagarden – Officially backing up Salty.  I think he can still get 300 ABs and contribute.  When asked why Saltamacchia over Teagarden, Texas brass explained, “Salty’s name goes to 12!”

Jeremy Guthrie – Opening Day starter for the Orioles.  Now if they can figure out a way for it to rain four out of five days, they should be fine.

Dontrelle Willis – On DL with anxiety disorder.  He’s been Greinke’d!  Maybe he just needs a Miguel Olivo hug.  Maybe he’ll go the Ankiel route.  You know, Willis was a very good hitter in the NL.  There’s got to be a Razzball glossary term for a hitter trapped in a pitcher’s body.  How about… Redesignated Hitters.