Fantasy Baseball Advice

I hated Brandon Phillips going into last year.  I felt he was overrated.  I thought he was being drafted like his feces smelled like Reese’s Pieces.  Then, as is the case in the game of fantasy baseball, one year changed all of that.  I don’t necessarily think my perception of Brandon Phillips has changed for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.  He still seems like a guy who can’t figure out whether to swing or not.  A .312 OBP isn’t exactly the quantum of solace (sucked!).  He only had 39 walks all of last year in over 600 plate appearances.  His .209 after July 31st gives me the Montezuma’s Revenge shakes (which are great with a side of fries. Yum!).  With praise like this, who needs insults, right?  So what is the 2009 outlook for Brandon Phillips for fantasy baseball and did he improve from last year?

He hasn’t improved.  Zoinks!  Everyone else’s perception has changed.  Last year, Phillips was coming off a 30/30 season and, in anticipation of drafting him, everyone was sticking their wood through holes in the wall.  Now Phillips comes off a bad season and everyone thinks Pedroia is the new King of Siam.  People need to chillax.  Phillips is still the number three 2nd baseman off the board.  He’s not below Uggla, he’s not below Roberts and he’s NOT (caps for emphasis, not for the hard of seeing) below Pedroia.  Brandon Phillips will not hit .300.  Shoot, he probably won’t hit .280.  He’s a .265 hitter, but he’s also a 20/20 guy and that needs to be respected.  So, as much as I don’t like guys that don’t walk, Brandon Phillips is still someone you should be drafting.

While ESPN gets 11 Hall of Fame ballots, Razzball doesn’t even get one.  Perhaps our invitation was forgotten by the same voter who forgot to add Rickey Henderson to the ballot (but remembered Matt Williams)?

Anyway, here is my ballot.  Click on the player names for my analysis:

Yes:  Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, Bert Blyleven, Tommy John

Yes if they were actually on the ballot:  Dick Allen, Reggie Smith

No:  Obviously anyone not mentioned above.  But here are links to players that I reviewed in some depth…Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Harold Baines, Jack Morris

Apologies to Alan Trammell and Lee Smith as I didn’t get around to doing middle infielder and reliever posts.  My guess is that I’d have ended up voting ‘No’ on both.

And assuming that a lot more voters don’t forget Rickey, here is a little way to enjoy Rickey’s inevitably entertaining acceptance speech as well as our faux interview with him.

We now have some more 2009 fantasy baseball projections for you. These are CHONE-based projected Point Shares for 10 and 12 team leagues available in the 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings menu at the top of the page.

Razzball Fantasy Baseball Projected Point Shares – MLB 10 Team

Razzball Fantasy Baseball Projected Point Shares – MLB 12 Team

If you want to download the 2009 projections, click here.  CHONE takes more factors into account than Marcel including home ballpark and league (Free agents are based on neutral park and 50/50 AL/NL split).  While we did not alter any CHONE projections, we did remove any player deemed unlikely to get to 300+ ABs (CHONE is admittedly over-optimistic on plate appearances which would distort counting stats).  CHONE does not project saves but we added them in based on expected closing opportunity.

We plan to create the ‘official’ Point Shares spreadsheet in the late February time frame which will account for additional factors like expected playing time.

While Marcel and CHONE are fairly correlated (87%) in projected player fantasy value, there are several players with wildly different values between the two systems.

Hitters:
Why the big differences on some of these players?  I’d say Soriano, Ortiz, Crawford, V-Mart, and Furcal are lower in Marcel because its Plate Appearance projections are more affected by last year’s injury-effected totals.  CHONE factors in minor-league stats which explains Bruce and Cruz’s higher numbers (Cruz had a monster year in AAA last year but CHONE still seems overly optimistic).

I’ve got less of an explanation for the cases where Marcel > CHONE.  Holliday’s lesser value makes sense since CHONE factors in league and park (bye-bye Coors).  Thome and Chipper Jones are old – perhaps Marcel is more optimistic on older players?  The rest of these hitters (Hamilton, Ludwick, McLouth, Pedroia) had career years in 2008 – maybe Marcel relies on last year’s stats more?

Pitchers:
I’m not sure why there are big differences on Brandon Webb.  Sheets might be lower in CHONE partly because he’s a free agent and the projections factor that he might end up in the AL.

Vazquez.  Holy fuckin’ shit!  Vazquez is ranked #4 in 10-team and #2 in 12-team Point Shares when using CHONE.  I can see Vazquez getting a boost from leaving the AL and a hitter’s park (US Cellular) to the NL and Turner Field.  But to become a $41 fantasy pitcher.  I don’t think so and here are few others that concur (Roto Savants, Hardball Times).

The three pitchers that Marcel estimates higher (Myers, Harang, Lester) follow the pattern we saw with guys like Hamilton and Ludwick.  Lester had a career year last year which Marcel credits more for 2009.  Myers and Harang had down years and Marcel punishes them more.

So what does everyone else think?

The only thing Rickey Henderson lacked in his twenty-four year career was humility. So, with Rickey Henderson an odds-on favorite for first-ballot election into The National Baseball Hall of Fame, we here at Razzball would like to tip our caps and our mugs.

Remember Wade Boggs as a Devil Ray?  Brett Favre as a Jet?  Sylvester Stallone in the latest Rocky movie?  Today, Trevor Hoffman signed with the Milwaukee Brewers and John Smoltz signed on with the Red Sox.  Maybe Trevor Hoffman just wanted to follow in Salomon Torres’s footsteps and retire a Brewer.  Meanwhile, Smoltz returns to Boston after only spending one year with the then Boston Braves.  John Smoltz’s favorite contemporary artist, Mitzi Gaynor, once sang, “Everything old is new again.” No truer words have been spoken, except maybe, “Old pitchers break down.” — Anonymous.  Anyway, here’s a look at what Hoffman and Smoltz will mean for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Trevor Hoffman -  Somewhere in dairy country a little boy is asking his grandpa why he’s so excited.  “Cause we’re going to be able to hear a whole lotta Hell’s Bells.”  Carrying on the tradition he may have learned firsthand at The Spanish Inquisition, Hoffman did well converting opportunities in 2008.  He went 30 for 34 in save chances and put up 3.77/1.04 ratios.  Miraculously, he also posted more than a K/IP and only nine walks all season.  Frankly, it was a better season than you deserved when you were all ready to drop his remembering-the-eighteen-eighties ass in April.  The one big question mark besides his age is the home runs allowed.  He gave up eight home runs in 45.1 IP with seven of those coming in Petco.  Betcha he’s glad to be out of there!  In the end, SAGNOF.  If Hoffman’s getting the saves, then Hoffman is the one to own.  I’d rank him at the bottom of the Donkey-corn tier of closers.

John Smoltz – Smoltz is on the DL until early June recovering from shoulder surgery.  Sure, he’s The Ultimate Warrior taking on evil Hulk, but let’s be real for a moment.  Doode’s about to be 42 years-old.  The Sox gave him a five million dollar deal.  This is the same as you leaving a 12% tip at your local Ham ‘N Eggery.  Not to mention, the Red Sox have about a seven man starting staff as of right now.  (BTW, this really shows the inequality between clubs.  The Sox have a number seven man (Buchholz) that could be a number three man on another club.  Meanwhile, the Nats big offseason acquistion was Daniel Cabrera.)  If you have room on your DL for Smoltz, take a flier in the end rounds, but don’t expect too much.  The Sox are stacked to the point where they could hold Smoltz back until the All-Star Break and then baby him just for the playoffs.  I’d put his 2009 projections at 5-2/3.00/1.16 in 12 starts.