Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last night I took part in my third mock draft over at Mock Draft Central.  Going into this mock draft, I figured I’d try to draft a mock team to mock win.  Pretty out there, I know.  That’s how I mock roll!  I didn’t necessarily follow my 2009 fantasy baseball rankings to a T.  What fun is mocking if you don’t take some (mock) liberties. This mock’s participants were some of the finest fantasy baseball ‘perts in the fantasy baseball bidness.  Below the pretty picture of my drafted team is, as always, the notes I took while mock drafting:

1st Round – Miguel Cabrera.  Two Mets off the board with the 1st two picks.  Obviously Ralph Kiner paid off some of these ‘perts.  Hey, no illusions of grandeur here.  I can be bought too.

2nd Round – Carlos Beltran.  I’m eyeing Chase Utley.  Oh, he looks real nice at the 17th pick.  Scooped!  The ‘pert right before me grabbed Utley and I was left with Beltran.  Some picks I didn’t like in this round were Pedroia, Manny and Ichiro.

3rd Round – Carlos Quentin.  Wow, Santana held around for a while. I think that’s just a sign that this is a mock draft.  I doubt that has much real world significance, but if you see Johan in the third round by all means grab him.  Honestly, I didn’t like my choices in the 3rd round.  I almost took Lincecum, but didn’t want a pitcher yet.  I don’t want Morneau or Bay this early.  I considered Phillips long and hard and almost took him.

4th Round – Jake Peavy.  I have a whole post coming up about Peavy.  This is just another sign of this “What have you done for me lately?” attitude.  Sure, Peavy wasn’t incredible in 2008.  Guess what, ya’ll?  It’s 2009.  Picks I didn’t like in this round were Ortiz, Furcal, Vlad and K-Rod.

5th Round – Alexei Ramirez.  I’ve suddenly become a South Sider with these picks.  Usually I’d hold off on a MI, but I’m trying to zag on my own usual zigging at times to see what I come up with.  Picks I didn’t like in the 5th round — Mike Jacobs.  Zoinks!

6th Round – Chris Davis.  During this pick, I went to the bathroom and Bill James drafted for me.  Atkins, Zimmerman, Huff and Cantu were staring me in the face.  I went with an upside pick, as I did with my last three picks.  I don’t think I can go with an upside pick for the next five or so rounds.

7th Round & 8th Round – Jermaine Dye and Derrek Lee.  The kind of safe picks I was talking about in the 6th round.  I’ve just about righted the ship from my upside picks.  Now I’m looking for a pitcher.

9th Round – Chad Billingsley.  Guess who’s staring at me in the face?  Billingsley.  My pre-preseason Cy Young pick, who I’m slightly worried about because of his increase in innings in 2008.  He’s not the absolute safest pick like I was thinking about, but this value is way too great.  Some other pitchers I could’ve drafted here were Lackey, Burnett, Lester and Dice-K.  I think this is just ‘perts telling their readers to not draft pitchers and then them showing everyone how they don’t draft pitchers.  I don’t draft pitchers early either, but this group of mockers is extreme.  In your league, you’re going to have to draft some of the pitchers that went in the 9th and 10th rounds before then if you want them.  A pick I didn’t like in this round, Polanco.  Think about the difference in value between Billingsley and Polanco.

10th Round – Pat Burrell.  There were a lot of great picks in this round.  Soria, Joba, Dice-K and Burnett.  Admittedly, I probably did the worst this round, but I wanted safe power.

11th Round – Jonathan Broxton. Ignore the previous year’s saves when drafting your closer.  Just make sure he has the job for the upcoming year.  Broxton had 88 Ks last year. He could easily be the number one closer in 2009 and I just drafted him in the 11th round.  K-Rod went in the 4th round.

13th Round – Adam Wainwright.  Honestly, I think I have the best pitching staff right now, but pitching is unpredictable so this staff could blow up in my face.

15th Round – Justin Upton.  Looking to head back to the OF after taking some pitchers.  My choices here aren’t great, but I’ll take my chances with Krispie Young – Scooped!  I end up taking his OF-mate.  I’m not thrilled with this pick, but Upton’s upside is huge for the 15th round.  A pick I really liked this round was Conor Jackson.  I wasn’t crazy about the Posada, Huston Street or Mark Reynolds picks.  Not that I wouldn’t draft them, just not here.  Not now.

17th Round – Chad Qualls.  My pick is pretty self-explanatory.  At least I hope it is.  The Diamondbacks are saying Qualls is the closer.  Don’t worry about who you think should be the closer, just go with who the club puts in the role.  You’ll save yourself lots of headaches (pun was noted and groaned at).

18th Round – Miguel Tejada.  I realize he’s not juicing anymore but him falling to the 18th round is kinda ridiculous.

21st Round – Fred Lewis.  Actually kinda of surprised to still see him on the board when I was drafting in the 21st round.  My team was also lacking steals, so this was the smartest pick left for me without having to grab Juan Pierre.

22nd Round – Chris Snyder.  Not a huge fan of Snyder’s, but Jeff Clement went in the 16th round.

We’ve already gone over the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Other positions’ top 20 lists can be found under 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Now here we are with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball. While going through this top twenty list of 2nd basemen something stood out at me.  The position is extremely shallow.  You really don’t want to have to resort to the bottom half of this list, but this list is actually deeper than the top twenty shortstop list that is coming later in the week.  Scary, right?  As with the previous lists, tiers are mentioned within the player blurbs.  My 2009 fantasy baseball projections are also noted.  Here’s the list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. Chase Utley – In the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post is Utley’s 2009 projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – In the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post is Kinsler’s 2009 projections.

3. Brandon Phillips – You’re in a new tier here, one that goes to Uggla.  I call this tier, “If the spot is right, draft one of these guys, but they’re probably going to be overrated.”  I really took a left turn on this top 20 list.  I’ve never been a fan of Brandon Phillips, but I see lots of people zigging, so what did I do? Zagged!  Barring injury, he can get to 25/25 while raising his average a bit from last year.  I’d let the rest of the schmohawks in your league grab Pedroia, Brian Roberts or Uggla while you grab Phillips.  (BTW, I already covered Brandon Phillips in a different post.)  2009 Projections:  90/25/80/.270/25

4. Alexei Ramirez – Another guy I bumped up higher than most fantasy baseball ‘perts.  At the end of 2009, Alexei Ramirez is going to be above Dustin Pedrioa on top 20 2nd basemen lists.  Why are you drafting your 2009 fantasy team like it’s 2008?  Are you in college in Boston and you bet your friend you would draft Pedroia if he finished a whole bottle of Mad Dog 20/20?  Pedroia had a great 2008, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be incredible in 2009.  Good, but not incredible.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.285/15

5. Dustin Pedroia – I was pushing Scrappy Doo real hard last year in the preseason.  I was telling people he can be a cheap 15/15 player.  And he can still go 15/15, but why is he suddenly being pushed by others like he’s King Shinola of Siam?  Did King Shinola die and make Pedroia King?  I don’t think King Shinola died.  Pedroia won an MVP in about the stankest of years for MVP candidates ever.  People taking him in the 2nd round of 2009 drafts need to chillax.   2009 Projections:  110/15/75/.310/15

6. Brian Roberts – It’s no secret that I didn’t like Brian Roberts last year.  Guess what?  Still don’t.  2009 Projections:  105/10/50/.285/30

7. Dan Uggla – Uggla’s a solid, low average power source.  He’s like mini-Dunn, which sounds like what an insensitive guy would tell his girlfriend if he wanted a break. “We’re not breaking up, we’re just mini-Dunn.”  2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.255/5

8. Robinson Cano – We’re in a new tier here.  This tier goes until Kendrick.  This tier I call, “Good value before we get to total Crapolanco.”   2009 Projections:  80/18/85/.310/3

9. Kelly Johnson – Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez and Mark DeRosa are a coin flip.  You want the Braves schmohawk who’s going to give you 14/10 or you want the Indians or Mariners schmohawk who is going to give you 15/5.  It’s called Schmohawk’s Choice.  2009 Projections:  90/14/65/.285/10

10. Jose Lopez – Looking at cursory numbers at the end of November had me thinking Lopez was going to be a great sleeper for 2009.  As I dug deeper, I realized he’s not really due to take a huge jump forward.  Though he could repeat last year’s numbers, which makes him moderately valuable.  Kinda like your nana’s broach.  Projections:  80/15/85/.280/5

11. Mark DeRosa – I’m seeing him a lot higher on other 2009 fantasy baseball rankings lists so take necessary precautions to not overrate him.  A career year at 33-years-old screams outlier.  2009 Projections:  75/15/70/.280/5

12. Rickie Weeks – Call me a stewpid bizzlenitch.  I don’t care.  Old habits die hard.  I believe in leaving at least a $3 tip even if the bill is under $10, I believe you should live with a girl before you get married and I believe in Rickie Weeks.  Maybe I’m a dope.  2009 Projections:  90/15/60/.250/20

13. Howie Kendrick – What are we to expect from Kendrick?  A) Injuries B) Blah power C) A little speed D) Anything’s better than Polanco.  2009 Projections:  70/7/55/.310/10 and two 15-day DL trips.

14. Placido Polanco – This is a new tier and it goes from Crapolanco until Orlando Hudson.  I call this tier, “Punt.”  Seriously, why are you drafting Polanco?  What’s he going to do for you?  Take a flier on Kendrick or wait to take a flier on some late round doode.   2009 Projections:  90/7/55/.310/7

15. Kaz Matsui – In 2008, Kaz Matsui had a usable season even if he had to wear diapers for half the season.  Sorta like Jamie Moyer.  2009 Projections:  65/5/40/.280/20

16. Freddy Sanchez -  See Crapolanco.  Not even sure why I’m wasting my time writing up this schmohawk.  2009 Projections:  80/10/60/.285

17. Orlando Hudson – O-Dog is a poor man’s Polanco.  Blah!  2009 Projections:  75/10/45/.280/5

18. Mike Aviles – Here’s the final tier of 2nd basemen.  I’ll call this tier, “A-Ha! Take on me.”  Aviles won’t bat .325 again; he probably won’t bat .300.  In the end, he might not end up much better than 10/10, but he’s got some mystery to him.  The unknown is better than the known when you’re this deep into the 2nd basemen pool.  2009 Projections:  80/10/55/.295/10

19. Blake DeWitt – I already covered him in a Blake DeWitt, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper post.  You’re much better off taking DeWitt late instead of Polanco, Matsui or Hudson.  2009 Projections:  60/14/75/.275/7

20. Emmanuel Burriss/Eugenio Velez – Whichever schmohawk wins the Giants 2nd base job as long as it’s not Kevin Frandsen.  With this pick, you’re going for SAGNOF.  2009 Projections:  A badonkadonk of steals.

After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Ian Stewart – I already went here in the Ian Stewart 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  I could’ve put him up with Aviles, but I wanted to highlight him down here.  Just make sure he’s eligible for 2nd base in your league.  2009 Projections:  65/17/80/.265/5 (<–optimistic, but reachable)

Asdrubal Cabrera – With a first name that sounds like what Kaz Matsui was suffering from in the beginning of 2008, it’s easy to overlook Asdrubal Cabrera for 2009 fantasy baseball.  But Asdrubal (hehe, I said “but Asdrubal”) had a solid 2nd half last year.  Okay, this was preceded by him being sent down to the minors.  Cabrera won’t put together his 2008 2nd half over an entire season in 2009, but he’s worth the flier over some of the above names cough Polanco cough.  2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.275/10

The Cubs just got a hundred and twelve pounds lighter as Felix Pie heads to the Orioles for some dudes that you don’t need to concern yourself with right now.  Either the Cubs got fed up waiting around for Pie or they think he’s nothing more than Corey Patterson, another player the Cubs dumped on the Orioles.  Jim Bowden and the Nationals might not be the only team where teams can unload their failed 5-tool projects (aka “The Tool Shed”).  Hopefully, Delmon Young doesn’t end up in Washington or Baltimore in the next 2 years.  Anyway, let’s look at the 2009 fantasy baseball implications for the Felix Pie trade:

Felix Pie – Pee-ay should have the inside track on the left field job going into and coming out of spring training.  Suddenly, Pie is fantasy relevant.  What’s to like about him?  Well, the weird guy in the overalls at The Home Depot is not the only one who’s toolsy.  Pie is a speed and power combo guy.  He’s just not quite that powerful or that, um, speedful.  Torii Hunter could take Pie in an arm wrestling match.  Pie’s on the Bowden Fluffer JV Team with guys like Coco Crisp and Adam Jones.   Pie’s upside is Randy Winn.

Joey Gathright – Except in very deep mixed leagues or NL-Only leagues, Gathright’s not really someone to draft, but you should keep an eye on him.  First sign of a Milton Bradley having a pulled hammy/bout with his inner demons, I’d grab Gathright for some cheap steals.  SAGNOF, boyz (and one possible girl reader).

The other day we went over the top 20 catchers for 2009 and today we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball. This was after going over our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  All this can be found in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings page.  This top 20 list could probably go to 40 and still have worthwhile names on it, so after we go through all the top 20 lists for every position, maybe I’ll add some more.  Is this the 28th day of Christmas or some shizz?  No, I’m just real giving like Bono and Chris Tucker on an Africa trip.  As with the catchers, the first basemen are broken up into tiers.  Also, there’s some guys below other guys that I want more. They’re below on this list because they can be drafted later than the other schmohawks.  Also, check out our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and 2009 projections:

1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.

2. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

3. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Ryan Howard’s projections.

4. Mark Teixeira – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

5. Prince Fielder – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.

6. Lance Berkman – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Lance Berkman’s projections.

7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Votto.  I call this tier, “If you didn’t get one the 1st basemen in the first tiers, you better get one in this tier.”  I prefer a guaranteed 30 home run hitter from my 1st baseman, so I tend to miss Morneau.  And that’s not miss as in “long for.”  2009 Projections:  90/27/115/.285

8. Adrian Gonzalez – Imagine Adrian Gonzalez traded out of Petco.  Ah… Dare to dream. (Speaking of dreams, I had this dream where there’s two unicorns having sex and right before one… becomes satisfied, he practices the withdrawal method and does his business on a giant, oversized toothbrush.  And, in my home, that’s how toothpaste became known as unicorn jizz.  But I digress.)  2009 Projections:  85/34/95/.280

9. Kevin Youkilis -  Morneau is very close to Youuuuuk and the former goes way before him.  (Is it just me, or does former and latter always trip you up?)  2009 Projections:  95/25/110/.295

10. Joey Votto – I already went over why Votto’s a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  This doesn’t mean he’s going to outproduce the top guys on this list, but I could see Votto taking Berkman’s spot at number six for 2010.  I’m a big believer.  2009 Projections:  85/28/100/.300/12

11. Derrek Lee – This a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Carlos Pena.  I call this tier, “For better or worse, you know what you’re getting with these guys.”  Derrek Lee has played in 150+ games in 7 of the past 8 years and besides 2005 when he hit 46 home runs, he’s never really showed much power.  When I was writing this up, I was looking at how Derrek Lee’s career has taken shape and I realized something.  In 2009, Lee’s going to be 33 years old for the majority of the season and he’s not putting together a HOF career.  For some reason, I thought he was a much better player stat-wise.  This was really a personal observation that didn’t have much to do with fantasy baseball.  Carry on.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.295/8

12. Garrett Atkins – The Holliday trade to the A’s hurts Atkins value too.  And, frankly, for the last three years, Atkins was hurting his own value.  He’s gone from 29 to 25 to 21 home runs since 2006.  If you were taking the SATs, the next number in that sequence would be 17.  His slugging percentage has been following suit, as well.  The way Atkins is headed, he’s going to need 2nd base eligibility to have any value by 2010.   2009 Projections:  80/24/90/.290

13. Carlos Delgado – Delgado could be the poster boy for someone who won’t exceed expectations in 2009.  I almost put Delgado above Atkins, cause I think he might outproduce Atkins, but then I thought about if I were drafting and whether I would draft Delgado before Atkins.  I wouldn’t.  2009 Projections:  80/31/110/.260

14. Carlos Pena – Here’s the last guy in this tier of boring guys.  I don’t think guys in this tier will be on many 1st place teams in September.  2009 Projections:  75/32/95/.265

15. Chris Davis – Now we’re in a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “Too interesting to be in the above tier, but too risky as well.”  Everyone and Voletta Wallace is going after Chris Davis in 2009 fantasy drafts.  I added my own hype when I posted, Chris Davis, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper.  Okay, sleeper my coolie hole.  Not after Bill James gave him MVP projections.  2009 Projections:   75/30/95/.275/3

16. Jorge Cantu – He’s showed that he can be absolutely worthless for entire seasons so I’d be careful about making Cantu your 1st baseman, but, as a corner man, you can do much worse.  He’s also going to be the magical 27-years-old in 2009.  (An age when hitters supposedly peak and porn stars hopefully retire.)  2009 Projections:  80/25/90/.270/5

17. Aubrey Huff – Now we’re in a new one person tier.  Let’s call this tier, “Guys Named Aubrey Huff.”  In 2008, Huff outperformed about ten of the names listed above him here.  Whatevs.  I wouldn’t draft him on any team and couldn’t, in good conscience or while conscious, tell you he should go in the top ten.  2009 Projections:  75/22/75/.280

18. Mike Jacobs – This last tier, goes from here to Jackson.  I call this tier, “Late fliers.”  Jacobs’s average in 2008 of .247 was actually a little bit worse than it should’ve been.  He’s more of a .260 hitter.  I know, big whoop.  Well, it’s a small enough whoop to make him intriguing late in a draft.  Though the Royals situation is a bit murky with their seventeen 1B/DHs.  2009 Projections:  65/28/75/.260

19. Nick Swisher – Is Swisher going to be a doughy bagel, i.e., a top ten performer?  Nah, you just got carried away with yourself.  I see a small keep-expectations-in-check rebound coming after a dreadful 2008.  He’s ranked 19th, but he could exceed this ranking.  2009 Projections:  70/30/80/.255

20. Conor Jackson -  Conor Jackson almost equals Derrek Lee.  Cust kayin’.  2009 Projections:  85/17/85/.300/10

After the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Carlos Guillen – Sure, C. Guile is sneaky fast, which am0unts to, like, 10 steals.  At 1st base, I’d actually prefer Huff.  2009 Projections:  80/14/80/.300/10

James Loney – Since I’m such a Pollyanna, I’m going to leave you on a positive note.  Loney is a cheap-as-dog-balls Derrek Lee with some slight upside.  No, Loney didn’t pay me to say that.  Don’t expect too much from Loney and you might be pleasantly surprised.  2009 Projections:  75/17/85/.295/7

The Rangers announced their intention to move Michael Young to 3rd base for the 2009 season to make room for Elvis Andrus, their rookie prospect shortstop.  This, of course, threw Michael Young into a tizzy like an Emotionally Stunted Sandinista.  *stomps foot*  I didn’t tell them to censor all the comics, just Doonesbury! How dare the Rangers move Young’s 12 home runs to 3rd base where he would become even more fantasy irrelevant?  When Michael Young first heard of the Rangers plans, he was livid, saying, “What are my houseguests going to think now of my towels that are monogrammed with SS?  That I’m a Nazi?”  It’s surprising to see any reluctance from Young.  He was only the same guy who played through a fractured finger last season in his quest for an inconsequential 200 hits.  What’s really getting lost in all of this about Elvis Andrus replacing Young and Young moving to 3rd base?  What’s going to happen to Travis Metcalf?!  Okay, maybe that wasn’t lost.  Maybe that was sidestepped and picked up with a plastic bag.  So is Elvis Andrus a 2009 fantasy baseball sleeper?

There hasn’t been an Elvis so full of speed since The King passed away 30+ years ago.  Andrus just needs the playing time.  In Double A, Andrus stole 54 bases in 118 games.  So, B-I-N-G-O, he’s fantasy relevant, because, as we know, SAGNOF.  But will he get playing time?  Well, Young’s agreed to drag his woobie over to third.  Unfortunately, Andrus is not the strongest defensive shortstop, which normally would be ignored by us fantasy baseball ‘perts, but if he can’t field in spring training, he’s not making the club.  Last year, he had 32 errors in 109 games.  This is, how do you say?  Not good.  I think this might hold him back.  I doubt Andrus makes the club out of spring training, so I would ignore him unless you’re in a very deep league or a keeper.  But if things break differently in the spring and if the Texas daily newspapers are printing groaners like, “Elvis Has Entered the Building,” and “Rangers Infield is All Shook Up,” then Elvis Andrus will absolutely be worth a draft pick, even in shallow leagues.  Cheap steals from a late MI flier are exactly what you want.