Fantasy Baseball Advice

It’s March 18th and you’re taking part in your last fantasy baseball draft of the year before the season starts.  You’ve royally screwed up all your other fantasy baseball drafts, or at least you think you have because you’re neurotic.  So now you wanna make this draft count.  You wanna draft the perfect team.  You have your list of fantasy baseball sleepers to your right and your 2009 fantasy baseball projections sheet to your left.  You have a Big Gulp of Hawaiian Punch and you’re wearing the Stadium Pal.  Now the only thing standing between you and the perfect team is eleven other guys who purport (15th Century Word of the Day) to be your friend.

So you’re cruising along at 55 MPH and you’ve taken players exactly where you want to take them.  It’s the tenth round and you’ve taken a lot of solid hitters, but you’re missing a 1st baseman.  Your heart starts to race and you look in the mirror and, instead of yourself, you see the transgender girl from the newest Real World.   Are you Bushwick Bill and your mind is playing tricks on you or are you going crazy from not having a 1st baseman?  You barely can remember your own address, but in the back of your mind you hear my voice saying, “Conor Jackson, he’s pretty much Derrek Lee in a white man suit.  Cust Kayin’…”  And “Cust Kayin’” just continues to ring in your ears as you begin to sweat profusely.  Then, in the tenth round, you draft Conor Jackson.

Well, that’s a reach.  Conor Jackson isn’t an tenth round pick.  Your leaguemates look over to you and they see the sweat dripping down your face like your Nixon giving a speech under a heat lamp.  Your leaguemates sense a weakness and they peck at your soul.  “Why would you take Conor Jackson in the 10th round?  You just lost this league and it’s not even April yet.  You suck.”  Then, a lady bug lands on your shoulder and you collapse under its weight.  Or…

It’s your turn in the tenth round and you have no 1st baseman.  Is this catastrophic like a retirement fund meeting with Madoff?  Nope.  It’s manageable.  You squint at your cheat sheets and spy who’s left; Carlos Pena, Cantu, Swisher, Jackson, Jacobs and Huff.  You reach for Conor Jackson because A) You already have some average drains, so that eliminates Jacobs, Swisher, Cantu and Pena.  B) You don’t trust Huff.  C)  You need a 1st baseman; it’s kinda in the rules.

So rather than have someone else getting Conor Jackson, the last quality 1st baseman by your estimation, you reach five rounds earlier than you should to grab a guy that you really need on your team.  This makes perfect sense to reach.  When you really want a player, it’s absolutely fine.  In some ways, I think it shows you’ve done more research than others.  You know who you want, why you want them and what it will take to get them.  In September, when you’re in seventh place, will it make you feel better that you took Huff in the 10th round even though you really wanted Conor Jackson?  You shouldn’t reach every round, but once in a while it’s not only fine, it’s imperative.  So, when your leaguemates go to mock you for your Conor Jackson pick, remove the Stadium Pal from your leg and drink from it.  This’ll spook them so bad you’ll never hear another word from them.  Potentially ever.

Could Jake Peavy really be a sleeper for 2009 fantasy baseball?  Um, kinda.  Sorry, that wasn’t normal confidence that one expects from an alumni of the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston who studied under Matthew Berry, D.F. (No, that’s not Dumb F—.)  I should be shouting from the rooftops that Peavy is a fantasy sleeper for 2009 if I really believe it.  Well, I do and I don’t.  I really believe Peavy is going to put up top starter numbers that could land him in the top five overall for fantasy value at the end of the year.  What I don’t believe is that he’s a sleeper.  How has this guy fallen to the fifth rounds of some 2009 drafts?  Is he suddenly a different pitcher in 2009 than he was going into 2008?  No.  So why is he dropping so low?

Cause people are acting like stewpid bizzlenitches.  People are jacking Tim Lincecum all over the place like he’s guaranteed to win another 18 games.  I mean, the Giants did get Renteria and all, but, seriously, WHAT THE EFF?  (Sorry for caps, but I’m slightly annoyed that I’m seeing Peavy going in the fifth round.)  This is not 2008.  We’re drafting for 2009.  Peavy can easily win 17 games in 2009 and Lincecum can win 12.  Not to mention, Lincecum’s innings were high last year.  Now, I’m not saying I’m down on Lincecum.  It’s an example, people.  Snap!  Get off my back or I will attack and you don’t want that.  You know what else could realistically happen?  Peavy gets traded to a pennant-chasing team and he gets even more opportunities for wins.  Oh, and I don’t buy that an exit from Petco will hurt his value very much at all, so don’t try to sell me on that As Seen On TV shizz, Snuggie.

Some may look at the injury Peavy dealt with in 2008 as a reason to lower him.  Let’s take a sip of the Kool-Aid from the half-filled cup, shall we?  The time Peavy missed last year allowed him to rest a bit more, saving some innings on his arm and now he can come back even stronger in 2009.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  Jake Peavy may not be a sleeper in the traditonal sense, but he’s going lower than he should be in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

With these top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, we finish off the twenty lists for the infield.  From weakest to strongest, the top 20s go top 20 catchers, top 20 shortstops, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 third basemen then top 20 1st basemen.  The outfielders will be coming up next, and I’m sure they’ll be deeper than all of these lists, but that’s just by virtue of the sheer number of them.  If you want some overall perspective, look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  In addition, there’s a list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. David Wright – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for David Wright’s projections.

1 1/2. Miguel Cabrera – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Evan Longoria’s projections.

3. Aramis Ramirez – Welcome to a new tier.  This tier goes from Aramis to Chipper.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a rock solid 3rd baseman.”  As for Aramis, he was a bit underwhelming in 2007 to follow that up with more underwhelming shizz in 2008.  That he ranks 4th on the list is more of a condemnation of 3rd basemen than an endorsement of Aramis.  I like him, but only to a certain extent.  2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295

4. Kevin Youkilis – I liked Youuuuuk going into the 2008 season and he didn’t disappoint.  Now, like with Dusty “The American Dream” Pedroia, Youuuuuuk’s getting slightly overrated.  Though Youuuuuk will have a better chance of matching expectations than Pedroia.  Remember I said match, not exceed.  Recognize!  2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5

5. Alex Rodriguez – Drugs bad, A-Rod good, Cyst bad.  Any questions?  2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4

6. Chipper Jones – Sure, the Glass Chipper is never going to make it a full 150 games ever again, but you forget how many guys are available on waivers during the season.  You get Chipper Jones for 120 games then grab a hot waiver pickup for the other 30 games and you end up with a much more productive player than Atkins for 155 games.   2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5

7. Garrett Atkins – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Atkins to Zimmerman.  I call this tier, “Guys with question marks but upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Garrett Atkins’s projections.

8. Chris Davis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Chris Davis’s projections.

9. Jorge Cantu – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Jorge Cantu’s projections.

10. Ryan Zimmerman – If only I liked Martin and Huff more, so I could have dropped Zimmerman even further.  Bummerman!  Someone once asked why I dislike Zimmerman so much, I replied, “Read Razzball!”  To which they said, “Razz what?”  I said, “Ball.”  They said, “Ball what?”  We went on like that for twenty minues.  Honestly, if Zimmerman’s on the board late, I could see myself grabbing him this year, unlike last year when there was no chance I was getting him on any team.  The reason I’m saying there’s a chance this year is because he’s now being severely underrated.  He can still hit 20+ home runs and he’s not that old.  Last year, I hated the wrist surgery.  Now we’re an extra year away from it…  Okay, I’m going to stop now bef0re someone catches me defending Zimmerman.  2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7

10 1/2. Russell Martin – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Martin to Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “Guys with fewer question marks and less upside.”  He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Martin’s projections.

11. Aubrey Huff – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Aubrey Huff’s projections.

12. Adrian Beltre – I had ‘04 Beltre.  His 48 home runs.  I got them off waivers.  I knew it would never be that good again. And it won’t.  But he’s actually not putting up awful numbers from year to year.  What, you don’t want 25/10?  Of course you do.  He’s only just turning 30 at the beginning of the 2009 season.  2009 Projections:  80/25/85/.270/10

13. Edwin Encarnacion – Edwin’s one of those guys that I would draft in all leagues.  He’s not going to blow you away with numbers, but he’ll keep you afloat and let other guys carry your team.  In September of 2009, you’ll look at Encarnacion and say nothing good or bad. And that’s the best I can say about him.  2009 Projections:   75/25/90/.285/5

14. Mark Reynolds – Here’s a new tier.  This tier is just Reynolds and Figgins.  I call this tier, “Guys who could potentially kill your team.”  A guy who admittedly doesn’t mind striking out 200 times isn’t usually worth the headache.  But one of these years, Reynolds might hit 40+ home runs and .270 just from having one of those lucky BABIP years.  Later in a draft, if you feel like your team is really weak on power, I’d take a flier on Reynolds.  2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7

15. Chone Figgins – Figgins is exactly the kind of guy I’ve never had on any team.  Why, Grey?  Please explain! Okay, random italcized voice, but lower the eagerness a bit, it’s weird.  Figgins always goes in the mid-rounds and he gives you essentially one category (steals).  This puts way too much pressure on your other guys to bolster Figgins’s power shortage.  Also, if he gives you 35 steals and Emmanuel Burriss (fill-in any speed schmohawk SAGNOF player) at a better position gives you the same ten rounds later, why draft Figgins?  I don’t know, Grey! Why?! That was rhetorical; I just explained why.  2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35

16. Mark DeRosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from DeRosa to Lowell.  This tier I call, “Guys I’d prefer not to have on my team, but if they get hot I’d pick one up.”  See the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Mark DeRosa’s projections.

17. Hank Blalock – Honestly, I had Mike Lowell here then looked at reports of his recovery from hip surgery, looked at his age and decided I’d prefer this schmohawk then Lowell.  But, the thing is, I don’t really want Blalock either.  It was a tough call and in the end Blalock won because I think he’d get injured and I’d be able to drop him, where Lowell would play through injuries and end up costing me much more.  2009 Projections:  55/17/65/.280 in 100 games.

18. Carlos Guillen – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Carlos Guillen’s projections.

18 1/2. Pablo Sandoval – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Sandoval’s projections.  BTW, I like Sandoval, just not so much as my 3rd baseman.

19. Mike Lowell – “Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.  2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

20. Alex Gordon – Here’s the last tier.  It’s called, “Fliers that could pay dividends.”  I’ve said it many times before, and I’ll say it again.  When you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier on a guy rather than the safe, aging vet.  It’s worth the risk.  As for Gordon, can you believe I’m pushing this schmohawk for another year?  Old habits die hard, ask John Holmes.  I already went over Alex Gordon as a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Listen, I just know know KNOW (Yes, the regular-italicized-caps emphasis.  That’s like the triple dog dare of emphasis.) Alex Gordon’s going to come around.  He’s like that really awkward girl in your eleventh grade gym class that had Doritos in her hair.  You know the one — the one that asked your stupid ass out and you turned down.  Then you ended up going out with Psycho Sally and her crazy-ass ex-boyfriend keyed your ‘87 Camaro.  Well, the girl with the Doritos in her hair grows up to be Cindy Crawford.  Don’t you see you’re making the same mistakes in life over and over again?  Geez!  2009 Projections:  85/22/90/.270/10 (<–optimistic, but doable)

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three that stand out:

Dallas McPherson – I covered him in a 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  Search the site!  2009 Projections:  60/20/80/.245/5

Kevin Kouzmanoff – No, he didn’t explode on the scene like some (me!) would’ve hoped, but he’s still young and… Well, he plays in Petco and I don’t think Ryan Howard could hit 40 home runs in that park so keep expectations in check.  2009 Projections:  75/25/95/.270

Troy Glaus – Don’t even bother drafting him.   Anyone who decides to have shoulder surgery in January isn’t worth the ulcer.   2009 Projections:  Old/Doode/Injured/Shoulder

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).  The 2009 Cardinals Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of C70 At The Bat: A St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

1) What should we expect from Colby Rasmus for 2009?  Will he start the year with the Cards?  If not, when will he be called up?

Rasmus’s status is still up in the air.  The feeling is that the front office is looking to trade an outfielder for a pitcher, but that may not happen until spring training when teams can see some of them in action, especially Chris Duncan.  If no trades happen, there’s a strong possibility Rasmus starts at Memphis since he still has options.  However, I believe they’ll do everything they can to get him in St. Louis for Opening Day.

As for what to expect from him?  I’m not the best at projections, but you should probably expect a slow start.  His pattern has been to get off to one at every level he’s been at before taking off and hitting like the best prospect in the system should.  If he plays regularly in St. Louis, I’d guess around .260 with 15 HR and maybe 10-15 steals as well.

2)  Can Ryan Ludwick repeat his 2008?

Repeat it?  Probably not.  Approach it?  I think so.  Ludwick was highly rated as he came up through the minor league system, but he’s never been able to stay completely healthy and get a shot.  I don’t think 30 HR is completely out of the question, though his average may not be in the .300 range again.  Remember, though, it took until June or so for LaRussa to stop platooning him and let him play every day.  He’ll be the everyday starter from day 1 this year, so there is a chance he could repeat or improve on last year.  Just not a real strong one in my book.

3)  True or False, Chris Carpenter leads the 2009 Cardinals in saves. (If false, who? Perez? Motte? Someone else?)

False.  In fact, I venture to say that Chris Carpenter won’t be used out of the bullpen at all in ‘09.  I think odds are that Perez will lead the team in saves, but I’m not sure he’ll be the dedicated closer.  Motte may get quite a number, Franklin may get a few (hopefully not too many opportunities) and McClellan may even close a few games out.

4)  If Wainwright starts 30 games, what will his stats look like?

Assuming the bullpen has improved, which it looks to me like it has, I’d think something in the line of a 16-6 record, an ERA around 3.50, 140 K, maybe 65 walks.  Wainwright should continue to work himself into the discussions of best young pitchers in 2009.

5) In Tonyball, LaRussa talks a bit about his unconventional style of managing, “If I really need a starter, I’ll just convert a reliever or a minor league catcher or shortstop. The best pitcher I ever coached was Shawon Dunston – if I had him 10 years earlier, he’d have been a Hall of Fame pitcher.”  So my question to you is, which current Cardinal hitter is a better pitcher than Joel Pineiro?

That sounds very LaRussian.  The whole organization must have caught on, because a number of no-hit catchers are being turned into pitchers in the minors.  In fact, Jason Motte was one of those, and you see how well that has worked out so far.

As for current hitters that should take the mound…..if Aaron Miles hadn’t packed up and moved Chicago way, he’d be the obvious choice due to his mopup work the last couple of years from the bump.  You’d never want to see it happen, but if Albert Pujols took his same intensity and focus to the mound, he could be the next Bob Gibson.  The Cardinal fan base has been talking about an idea to move Schumaker to second base.  Maybe he needs to keep going and just take over that fifth spot in the rotation…..

When I went over the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, I mentioned that it was really shallow, but actually a bit deeper than the list of the top 20 shortstops for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Well, proof is in the pudding, so here’s the pudding.  We’ve already gone over quite a few top 20 lists already and they can be found in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Also, here’s a list of every player who has multiple position eligibility and our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1.  Hanley Ramirez – Already covered him in our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

2.  Jose Reyes – Already covered him in our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

3.  Jimmy Rollins – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

4. Alexei Ramirez -  This is the next tier and it goes down to Furcal.  I call this tier, “Really? These are the top shortstops?”  Alexei may not be eligible in all leagues because of less than 20 games at shortstop.  Either way, I already covered him in our top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.

4 1/2.  Stephen Drew -  Okay, when you see Stephen Drew at number four and a half overall for shortstops, you’re asking yourself if this is a vote for Drew or an indictment of the 2009 shortstops.  That’s a fair question and I’m glad you posed it.  What do you think?  A bit of both?  Wow, we are totally in sync.  Okay, what did I eat for lunch?  Nope, chicken burrito.  In 2009, Drew takes a step forward.  2009 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/7

5.  J.J. Hardy – Personally, I’d like to see Alcides Escobar get called up and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens by the trade deadline in July with Hardy going to a contender.  Maybe to the Dodgers to replace an injured Furcal.  2009 Projections:  85/25/80/.275/3

6.  Jhonny Peralta – This Silent H comes in at sixth with the other Silent H coming at 18th.  The scary thing is there’s been years where they’ve flip-flopped in the rankings.  Peralta doesn’t come without some risk.  Be forewarned, fantasy baseballers!  2009 Projections:  85/25/90/.270/3

7.  Troy Tulowitzki – Let’s put Tulo’s 2008 season into a strait jacket and then submerge it into Houdini’s Milk Can.  2009 Projections:  65/20/85/.285/5

8.  Derek Jeter - After you choose Jeter in your 2009 draft, make sure you tell your wife so she can pat you on the head.  2009 Projections:  110/12/70/.305/12

9. Rafael Furcal – I already went over Furcal for 2009 when he returned to the Braves for a minute (not an Urbandictionary “minute,” which is actually a long time.) He’s going to be a steal for his draft position or he’s going to go kaboom like peanuts in abnormal lemonade.  2009 Projections:  95/15/65/.285/35 or 25/6/40/.390/7 and a seat next to Nomar on the DL.

10.  Michael Young – Here’s a new tier that goes from Young to Renteria.  I call this tier, “Boring.”  I say boring because their best years are behind them and, for a few of them, their best years weren’t even that good.   As for Michael Young, when I say empty, you say average.  “Empty…”  “Average…” I will say this in Young’s defense.  Look at his projections compared to Jeter.  Not that different, huh?  2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10

11. Miguel Tejada – I want a new drug.  One that won’t spill… One that won’t let me hit .280 with 13 home runs and 66 RBIs… Or that comes in a pill… 2009 Projections:  90/15/75/.285/7

12. Orlando Cabrera -  Him and Renteria have similar power, speed, average and they want to kill each other.  2009 Projections:  90/7/65/.280/20

13. Edgar Renteria – Two enemies forever entwined in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  2009 Projections:  80/9/70/.285/12

14. Yunel Escobar – This next tier is called, “What do you get when you mix nothing with the slightest bit of upside?”  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  If you’re digging through the middle infielder bin at Filene’s Basement, you’re much better taking one of these schmohawks than one in the last tier.  These guys may not outperform them, but at least there’s a chance.  2009 Projections:  90/13/65/.300/3

15. Mike Aviles – Already covered him in our top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.

16. Ryan Theriot – The Riot is actually not a bad late draft sleeper.  It’s nice to get 25 steals out of your MI spot and The Riot can potentially give you that.   2009 Projections:  90/2/40/.295/25

17. Yuniesky Betancourt – How does an outside chance at a 10/10 season sound to you?  Yawnstipating?  Yeah, me too.  2009 Projections:  65/10/65/.280/10

18. Khalil Greene – This H is silent, but deadly to your average.   2009 Projections:  65/20/80/.235/5

19. Emmanuel Burriss/Asdrubal Cabrera – Already covered them in our top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.

20. Clint Barmes – Honestly, I could’ve put about ten different names here and they would have all been as uninspiring.  2009 Projections:  75/12/55/.270/12 (<–real optimistic)

After the top 20 shortstops for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Elvis Andrus – Some would even call him a 2009 fantasy baseball sleeper.  Hey, wait a sec, I called him that!  If the Rangers get Vizquel, it hurts Andrus’s value, but, as I already said, Andrus probably wouldn’t be up for opening day anyway.  2009 Projections:  55/3/35/.250/20 in 50 games.

Jed Lowrie – “Hey, what’s that you just put into your back pocket?”  “Jed Lowrie.”  “Why?”  “I want an outside chance at a 10/5 season.”  Long pause.  “Oh.”  2009 Projections:  75/10/80/.260/5