Comments on: 2009 Risky Pitchers – Verducci Voices In

By: Chip

Chip — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 14:22:58 +0000

@Luke: Thanks for the links. Very interesting. Am I the only one to find it surprising that, despite all of the attention given to projections, we know very little about their real fantasy worth? I like to trade stocks, and enjoy fantasy baseball for many of the same reasons. I would never believe in a projection system that claimed the ability to foresee that, say, GE will be at $15.21 on October 1.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 12:51:35 +0000

@Steve: Worth the gamble I guess. Hopefully he pitches 120 good innings for you. @Paulie Allnuts: I had Pelfrey on my 20 risky pitcher list so I'll share credit with Grey and Mr. Verducci. @Luke: I think ZiPS won the comparison for hitting in 2008. But they compare on non-fantasy stats like OPS. The biggest issue w/ all the preseason projections is they don't take playing time into account. That was the biggest adjustment I had to make when using them for the Point Shares projections (under 2009 Fantasy Baesball Rankings up top). @Patrick: No problem. @Chris Gaubatz: Yeah, I wouldn't bail on Lester. Lot of talent. I just think he had too much risk to draft him as a top of the fantasy rotation starter. I'd pick up Street out of that bunch. He's the best pitcher. Ziegler would be #2. @bpasinko: Good point. When I did my analysis and I used the criteria of: Year 1: 2700+ pitches, Year 2: < 2000 pitches or increased their FIP (ERA variation) by +0.50, I think the baseline was 40%.

By: bpasinko

bpasinko — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 04:13:27 +0000

Predicting injuries is obviously far from an exact science, but there is something to the VE. Obviously he shouldn’t take credit for guys like Gallardo, but I can’t fully blame the guy for tooting his own horn. At least he didn’t figure out a way to talk about the Torre book in his article. Dude should also get a better photo for SI.

Anyways, if I randomly select 10 pitchers that pitched over say 120 innings last yera, it’s likely that a few of them will get hurt or do worse just by the nature of pitching. 6 of them could have career years this year, but if 4 get hurt, even for a little or do just a little worse, I make out pretty well.

By: Chris Gaubatz

Chris Gaubatz — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:49:32 +0000

The jury is still out on Lester; I’m going to give him some time before I make a move with him, but I agree he is a risk, and didn’t do much for me today against TB. I need another RP in a 10 team 5×5 roto. I’ve decided to drop Chase Headley, as I’m off the charts on all but one category (SB) in batting, and don’t need him on the bench. My question is should I pick up H. Street, Ziegler, or Fernando Rodney to help me out with saves? Thanks!

By: Patrick

Patrick — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:45:47 +0000

Thanks for the mention.

Patrick

By: Luke

Luke — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 00:24:16 +0000

I found it. Actually, it was a study done at Baseball Prospectus and, perhaps not surprisingly, they found PECOTA to be the best predictor of both pitchers and hitters. ZIPS was a close second for hitters and CHONE was a close second for pitchers.

http://tinyurl.com/d6ahxr
http://tinyurl.com/ctgr2j

But, yeah, like I said… that was 2007. I never saw one for 2008 (maybe PECOTA didn’t do as hot so they kept it under wraps).

By: Luke

Luke — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 00:12:59 +0000

@Chip: There was a study done for the 2007 season but I never saw one for the 2008 season. I remember ZiPs being the best predictor for hitting in 2007 but I don't remember much else... I'll see if I can track down a link.

By: Paulie Allnuts

Paulie Allnuts — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 00:00:53 +0000

Sorry that should be Grey, not Rudy; I don’t know what Rudy thinks about Pelfrey, but Grey has him on his Razztastic Team.

By: Paulie Allnuts

Paulie Allnuts — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 23:59:55 +0000

@Baron Von Vulturewins: You, Rudy and Verducci are correct, at least for an inning. Pelfrey had a quasi-razztastic inning, giving up 4 runs ( at least three of them earned) in the 1st inning, and your boy Votto hit a dinger. Pelf threw over 40 pitches. Hopefully, he will prove you all incorrect by the end of the season.

Hopefully, for my fantasy teams, at any rate. And for the Mets.

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 23:59:48 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: What's your feeling on a $5 Ervin Santana? I have Peavy, Beckett and Cain too...