they bring in a rays expert to lay down the truth , and you guys ain’t listening .

in all actuality , he probably needs 6 more months to heal than the up-coming season affords him .

I know both Longo and Bigs-Ups* are overvalued going into the draft — i.e. valued at what people think they’ll do, not what they just done did. But man can’t live by ADP alone. I have been/would hate to be burned by saying, “Ha ha! You fools reach for that guy while I wait for my undervalued sleeper oops he just got picked two spots before me now I am stuck with Adrian Beltre for six months I hate my life.”

*patented nickname

I saw Jeff Niemann pitch in the 2003 College World Series when he played for Rice. The guy is like 6’10″, 290 pounds. He’s like Shaq with a glove and a year’s supply of Taco Bell coupons from Grey.

Great analysis, Cork… I enjoy reading you over at MLBTR, too.

The main reason being that Jeff Niemann is out of options, so I believe the Rays will give him a shot at the #5 spot in the rotation at the beginning of the year, if for nothing else than to bolster his trade value, which has diminished for the former Top 5 selection.

I’d love to have Longoria and Upton on my teams but not sure if I’ll rank them high enough. Longoria is projected as a .260-.265 hitter by CHONE and ZiPS (he K’s 27% of the time – that doesn’t help). His projection is at about 30/100 with < 10 SB. I’m hearing 2nd round for him where that feels like 4th round #s (I’ll take Aramis instead…). As I said in the article, I compared Upton’s swing to Soriano but the big difference b/w the two is Upton hits a LOT of ground balls. Soriano hits 48% FB and 28% GB. Upton is almost the reverse. So here’s the quick math on him….if he gets 500 ABs, he’ll K 125 times. Out of the 375 ABs, he’ll hit maybe 1/3 FBS. With 125 ABs, he’d need to hit 20% HR/FB to get to 25 and that’s a VERY high rate (Soriano at 16%). So I’d draft him as a .270/18 HR/35 SB guy which would also probably be around 4th round. Doubt he’d last until then either…
..

I do resent your suggestion that we forget what Upton did in ’08 because I OWNED UPTON IN ’08. Shoulder tear, shmoulder shmear.

Does that mean I wouldn’t draft him again? It does not. And, yes, I’m going after Price. I CAN’T HELP MYSELF.

What? Noooooooooo.