Yes, that is right, but what is the league average used for when analyzing players? Is it used for rookies that don’t have major league track records? How can you use minor league numbers when the talent is weaker? Plus, how do you compensate for players just getting better?

PS – these are my last questions on this subject today. =)

re: 2nd question — Players should be compared against their own averages, now against league averages.

I thought it was pretty good because it provided a league average that could be used for a comparison. Is this all I need to know about this sabermetrics? I assumed this can’t be everything! How did you learn? I figured you would know a book that would explain everything.

but first off, i was comparing Hardy with Greene/Lopez, not grouping them together. my point is if those 2 are available toward the end of my draft, was it worth taking Hardy in the 10th. Hardy is nice and I wouldn’t mind him on my team, but there is a lot not to like. he hits way too many GB for a power hitter (near 50% last year), and his power is his only asset. he is good for 2 steals, and his K-rate/LD% lead many to believe his .283 last year is toward his upper bound, barring improvement. his R/RBI should be a moderate but unlikely to be a major plus. put that all together and you have a very flawed 5×5 player. so again, how much better is he really than Lopez or Greene?

I don’t get your comment about landing one of those SS in the 10th. they are often there in the 10th in MDC. yahoo has peralta ranked last of that tier of SS. so yes i would expect to be able to get one of those guys in the 10th if i wanted.

a good value is drafting a player you think will outperform that slot on average. it might be easier to think of it in terms of an auction. if there’s a SS you’re pretty sure you can get for $1 and will return $5 on average, then that’s $4 of value. i would prefer this to getting a SS for $15 who I project will return $15. I’d prefer to spend my $15 on some other player I think can return $16+, even though it leaves me without a SS.

1B is deep but personally, I don’t feel like I’m getting great value anywhere except Votto and maybe Adrian depending on where he goes. I expect Votto to go in the 5th or early 6th in competitive leagues. if you wait too long, you might end up taking negative value if you’re desperate for a 1B and James Loney is your top available on in round 8. if you could have one of the following, which would you take: Prince late 2nd, Adrian late 3/early 4, DLee late 6, or Delgado, Loney, CoJax in the 8th or 9th? those are all their MDC ADP’s (except cojax, who’s buried on the MDC draft list). prince in the 2nd looks like the best value to me. maybe you feel differently.

for OF, i am a fan of taking them early, and then later. i hate having my OF already filled up when guys like Upton and Dukes are sitting there in the teens. plus, there will be OF to gamble on or pick up like Werth, Cruz, Dukes, Span, Quentin, Ludwick, McLouth and many more last year. there are usually lots of good values at that position, so I like to have a need for an OF or 2 in the late teens.

I don’t believe in any REAL draft you’re touching TULO, Drew, or Peralta in the 10th round, if you do the league is a joke or maybe its an 8 team league.

Maybe I am reading it wrong. What do you consider a “good 1B value”? Are you only trying to take players who are “good values”

I’m kinda confused. My philosophy almost feels total opposite of yours. 1B is super deep. I think SS is deeperthan people let on. The OF actually feels shallow to me? More players, but you need to fill more spots with OF’ers.

????

Greene and Lopez are essentially replacement level in some more shallow leagues, maybe something like round 18 in leagues with a MI, so after spending all of January taking a SS in round 9 or 10 of mocks, i’ve come to think Tulo, Hardy, Furcal, Drew, Peralta just aren’t worth it unless they slip a round or two.

basically what i’m saying is that if you have some good values in the late rounds at a given position, that makes reaching unattractive, because there’s potential for profit much later. i learned the same lesson when i used to fill up my OF too quickly in past mocks. conversely, I have very few good 1B values this year so I tend to take those early, even though theoretically it’s a very deep position.

I’m not a huge pitchers early guy, but I’m also not completely against a SP at the right spot. Rudy’s made enough arguments for drafting SPs early that I won’t go over past posts here.

As we near draft time, there’s a lot of variance out there in expert land, where people seem to be divided evenly among three schools:

1) Elite Pitchers School: Decent boppers (Dye, V. Wells) are available later in the draft, so use your high picks on impact pitchers like Santana/Lincecum/CC. (Counterargument: Tell that to people who drafted Bedard in the third last year. Or Peavy in the 2nd. Or Chris Carpenter back in the day. I don’t want to watch my 2nd round pick spend two-to-four months on the DL.)

2) Position Scarcity School: There are so few useful MIs, use a high pick to secure one of Reyes/Han-Ram/Rollins/Utley/Kinsler/Alexei/Brian Roberts. Don’t worry about pitching until round 6 or later. (Counterargument: Kelly Johnson et al. are available later and much, much cheaper, and the value differential isn’t great enough to overreach for the top guys.)

3) Consistent Hitters School: Skip pitchers AND overpriced MIs and use top picks to get consistent sluggers (Berkman, Teixeira, Carloses Lee or Beltran). This kind of reliable power just isn’t available after round 5 or so, when all the shmoes have weaknesses and/or question marks. (Counterargument: Josh Hamilton ’08).

I’m not sure who to follow, though I will make these two observations:

1) As someone whose team-power last year went AWOL, it was VERY HARD to pry a slugger from another team in a trade. When someone wakes up everyday to see that Carlos Quentin has slugged another donk, that person feels very warm inside. Even struggling sluggers (like Prince Fielder last April) are hard to pry loose because everyone (including, apparently, you) thinks he’ll come out with a mammoth next month/second half.

So this year I intend to frontload my team with some beef-eaters in the early rounds. And…

2) As someone who’s suffered through whole seasons with Julio Lugo at SS, bad MIs can kill you. Sure, a useful Aviles or two comes along on the wire, but you can spend a lot of time doing the Drew/DeRosa/Khalil Greene tango, while someone who “reached” (Kinsler last year in the 5th) sits and laughs it up.

So I am in favor of reaching, if it means avoided late-round dreck that will stick to your shoe all season. (Oddly, I don’t feel this way about catchers. I never spend for Mauer/McCann/V-Mart. This year, I’m hoping for a Weiters/RHernandez tag-team, fingers-crossed.)

@Frank Rizzo: I also have a lot of Longo love but have resolved not to reach (i.e. early 2nd round) to get him, and instead target someone who can help in all five cats, like Beltran. If he’s available late second, i.e. picks 20-25, I’d do it, though.