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Finally, we come to the end of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Can we start games already?)  Okay, you know that I like Rickie Weeks better than Howie Kendrick in the top twenty 2nd basemen for 2009.  You know I like Conor Jackson better than James Loney as seen at the top twenty 1st basemen for 2009.  But you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture.  Is Rickie Weeks above Conor Jackson?  Nope.  So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together a 2009 fantasy baseball top 300.  This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt because of how your team might be filling out.  For instance, if you have a shortstop already and Derek Jeter is still on the board in the 12th round, you don’t draft him if you see Zimmerman and you don’t have a 3rd baseman, even though Zimmerman may be below Jeter on this list.  Because of the length of the top 300, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Also, I already went over a Top 100 for 2009 Fantasy Baseball, so I’m not going to cover them again.  This top 300 will go from 101 to 300.  Finally, see our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater for 10 team leagues or for 12 team leagues.  That goes up to 600 players.  Or a list of all players with multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the 2009 fantasy baseball top 300:

101. Jhonny Peralta – 2009 Projections: 85/25/90/.270/3
102. Francisco Cordero – 2009 Projections: 6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves
103. Bobby Jenks – 2009 Projections: 3-2/3.20/1.14/50, 35 saves
104. Adam Wainwright – 2009 Projections: 13-7/3.60/1.20/150
105. Joba Chamberlain – 2009 Projections: 12-3/3.00/1.18/130 in 20 starts.
106. B.J. Ryan – 2009 Projections: 3-3/3.15/1.22/65, 37 saves
107. Adrian Beltre – 2009 Projections: 80/25/85/.270/10
108. Robinson Cano – 2009 Projections: 80/18/85/.310/3
109. Brian Fuentes – 2009 Projections: 3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves
110. Derek Jeter – 2009 Projections: 110/12/70/.305/12
111. Rafael Furcal – 2009 Projections: 95/15/65/.285/35
112. Michael Young – 2009 Projections: 100/10/85/.310/10
113. Ricky Nolasco – 2009 Projections: 11-8/4.00/1.15/160
114. A.J. Burnett – 2009 Projections: 13-9/4.15/1.30/140
115. Jose Lopez – Projections: 80/15/85/.280/5
116. Jon Lester – 2009 Projections: 15-7/4.00/1.30/150
117. Chien-Ming Wang – 2009 Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.30/120
118. Ryan Zimmerman – 2009 Projections: 80/20/90/.285/7
119. Kerry Wood – 2009 Projections: 4-2/3.70/1.10/75, 37 saves
120. Jorge Cantu – 2009 Projections: 80/25/90/.270/5
121. Kelly Johnson – 2009 Projections: 90/14/65/.285/10
122. Matt Cain – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.35/1.26/200
123. Yovani Gallardo – 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.50/1.25/150
124. Ryan Doumit – 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.295/2
125. Chris Iannetta – 2009 Projections: 55/19/70/.265
126. Kelly Shoppach – 2009 Projections: 50/18/60/.260
127. Conor Jackson – 2009 Projections: 85/17/85/.300/10
128. Aaron Harang – 2009 Projections: 12-9/4.00/1.25/155
129. Jim Thome – 2009 Projections: 85/30/100/.250
130. James Loney – 2009 Projections: 75/17/85/.295/7
131. Erik Bedard – 2009 Projections: 9-6/3.35/1.15/140
132. Jose Valverde – 2009 Projections: 3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves
133. Mike Napoli – 2009 Projections: 55/23/65/.245/7
134. Javier Vazquez – 2009 Projections: 15-8/4.15/1.25/200
135. Pat Burrell – 2009 Projections: 70/30/85/.250
136. Milton Bradley – 2009 Projections: 60/18/75/.290/4
137. JD Drew – 2009 Projections: 80/22/75/.280/5
138. Jayson Werth – 2009 Projections: 95/17/70/.270/17
139. Coco Crisp – 2009 Projections: 90/12/60/.280/25
140. Carlos Gomez – 2009 Projections: 90/10/60/.260/40
141. Lastings Milledge – 2009 Projections: 75/18/90/.280/20
142. Xavier Nady – 2009 Projections: 80/24/90/.275
143. Delmon Young – 2009 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/15
144. Miguel Tejada – 2009 Projections: 90/15/75/.285/7
145. Edwin Encarnacion – 2009 Projections: 75/25/90/.285/5
146. Mark DeRosa – 2009 Projections: 75/15/70/.280/5
147. Rickie Weeks – 2009 Projections: 90/15/60/.250/20
148. Alex Gordon – 2009 Projections: 85/22/90/.270/10
149. Carlos Marmol – 2009 Projections: 7-2/2.75/1.00/80, 20 saves
150. Cameron Maybin – 2009 Projections: 85/5/50/.280/40
151. David Price – 2009 Projections: 10-4/3.50/1.10/120
152. Max Scherzer – 2009 Projections: 9-3/3.25/1.20/100
153. Jered Weaver – 2009 Projections: 14-9/3.75/1.25/160
154. Justin Verlander – 2009 Projections: 15-9/4.00/1.30/160
155. Fred Lewis – 2009 Projections: 95/12/50/.270/25
156. Andre Ethier – 2009 Projections: 80/17/75/.290/5
157. Zach Grienke – 2009 Projections: 9-7/4.10/1.30/130
157 1/2. Ervin Santana – 2009 Projections:  11-6/3.75/1.20/125 in 20 starts
158. Matt Garza – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.50/1.25/140
159. Justin Upton – 2009 Projections: 70/20/70/.260/7
160. Chris Young – 2009 Projections: 11-7/3.50/1.22/160
161. Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2009 Projections: 75/25/95/.270
162. Nelson Cruz – 2009 Projections: 75/25/90/.270/10
163. Travis Hafner – 2009 Projections: 60/22/85/.275
164. Bengie Molina – 2009 Projections: 50/15/70/.275
165. Ramon Hernandez – 2009 Projections: 55/17/75/.260
166. Pablo Sandoval – 2009 Projections: 60/14/65/.300
167. Chad Qualls – 2009 Projections: 6-3/3.00/1.18/70, 35 saves
168. Adam Jones – 2009 Projections: 75/15/60/.275/12
169. Matt Wieters – 2009 Projections: 50/17/60/.290 or the Minors
170. Carlos Guillen – 2009 Projections: 80/14/80/.300/10
171. Josh Johnson – 2009 Projections: 13-6/3.75/1.32/140
172. Johnny Cueto – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.75/1.25/165
173. Nick Swisher – 2009 Projections: 70/30/80/.255
174. Brandon Morrow – 2009 Projections: 8-4/3.45/1.20/120
175. Kevin Slowey – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.17/130
176. John Danks – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.28/160
177. Mark Reynolds – 2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7
178. Dallas McPherson – 2009 Projections: 60/20/80/.245/5
179. Mike Lowell – 2009 Projections: 75/20/85/.275
180. Chone Figgins – 2009 Projections: 95/5/55/.295/35
181. Jorge Posada – 2009 Projections: 55/12/65/.270
182. Brett Myers – 2009 Projections: 12-5/4.30/1.32/130
183. Ted Lilly – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.30/1.25/160
184. Ryan Dempster – 2009 Projections: 9-7/4.50/1.35/120
185. Derek Lowe – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.22/140
186. Shin-Soo Choo – 2009 Projections: 70/16/70/.280/11
187. Hank Blalock – 2009 Projections: 55/17/65/.280
188. Heath Bell – 2009 Projections: 4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves
189. Howie Kendrick – 2009 Projections: 70/7/55/.310/10
190. Joey Devine – 2009 Projections: 4-2/2.75/1.00/65, 20 saves
191. Brian Wilson – 2009 Projections: 3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves
192. Matt Capps – 2009 Projections: 1-4/3.15/1.00/45, 20 saves
193. Mike Gonzalez – 2009 Projections: 3-1/3.15/1.30/65, 25 saves
194. Clayton Kershaw – 2009 Projections: 11-6/4.20/1.40/140
195. Jair Jurrjens – 2009 Projections: 12-8/3.75/1.35/150
196. Ubaldo Jimenez – 2009 Projections: 10-8/4.20/1.40/165
197. Fausto Carmona – 2009 Projections: 14-9/4.00/1.25/120
198. Mike Jacobs – 2009 Projections: 65/28/75/.260
199. Adam LaRoche – 2009 Projections 70/26/80/.270
200. Gary Sheffield – 2009 Projections: 50/15/60/.255/7
201. Placido Polanco – 2009 Projections: 90/7/55/.310/7
202. Orlando Cabrera – 2009 Projections: 90/7/65/.280/20
203. Edgar Renteria – 2009 Projections: 80/9/70/.285/12
204. Yunel Escobar – 2009 Projections: 90/13/65/.300/3
205. Rick Ankiel – 2009 Projections: 70/22/85/.260
206. Denard Span – 2009 Projections: 90/8/60/.285/20
207. Juan Pierre – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
208. Willy Taveras – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
209. Mike Cameron – 2009 Projections: 70/22/75/.245/18
210. Frank Francisco – 2009 Projections:  3-5/3.75/1.32/60 and 25 Saves
211. Elijah Dukes – 2009 Projections: 75/20/70/.265/15
212. John Maine – 2009 Projections: 13-7/3.85/1.35/150
213. Mike Aviles – 2009 Projections: 80/10/55/.295/10
214. Trevor Hoffman – 2009 Projections:  2-5/4.20/1.10/40 and 30 Saves
215. Brandon Lyon – 2009 Projections:  3-2/4.15/1.40/45 and 30 Saves
216. Joel Hanrahan – 2009 Projections:  2-4/3.75/1.40/65 and 25 Saves
217. Chris Perez - 2009 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.35/55 and 20 Saves
218. Huston Street – 2009 Projections:  5-3/3.50/1.15/55 and 20 Saves
219. George Sherrill – 2009 Projections: 2-4/4.50/1.40/50 and 15 Saves
220. Matt Lindstrom – 2009 Projections:  2-4/3.75/1.40/50 and 25 Saves
221. Troy Percival – 2009 Projections:  1-3/5.00/1.45/30 and 15 Saves
222. Manny Corpas – 2009 Projections:  3-4/4.00/1.35/55 and 10 Saves
223. Hideki Matsui – 2009 Projections: 70/18/80/.285
224. Jose Arredondo – 2009 Projections: 5-2/2.25/1.00/60, 20 Holds
225. J.J. Putz – 2009 Projections: 6-2/3.00/1.20/75, 15 Holds and 7 Saves
226. Hong-Chih Kuo – 2009 projections:  4-2/3.25/1.15/65, 15 Holds
227. Randy Winn – 2009 Projections: 80/12/60/.290/17
228. David DeJesus – 2009 Projections: 70/12/75/.290/12
229. Jason Kubel - 2009 Projections: 80/20/80/.280
230. Scott Baker - 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.22/150
231. Andy Pettitte – 2009 Projections: 15-10/4.40/1.40/160
232. Hiroki Kuroda – 2009 Projections: 13-9/3.90/1.25/120
233. Justin Duchscherer – 2009 Projections: 5-7/3.85/1.15/70
234. Wandy Rodriguez – 2009 Projections: 10-7/3.75/1.30/160
235. Jeremy Guthrie – 2009 Projections: 12-10/3.90/1.25/130
236. Jeff Francoeur – 2009 Projections: 65/18/70/.260
237. Manny Parra – 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.10/1.40/160
238. Rocco Baldelli – 2009 Projections: 50/12/50/.280/3
239. Chris Snyder – 2009 Projections: 55/18/70/.245
240. Jeff Clement – 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.250
241. Jarrod Saltamacchia – 2009 Projections: 65/16/75/.265
242. Dioner Navarro – 2009 Projections: 50/10/60/.285
243. Jesus Flores – 2009 Projections: 50/14/65/.245
244. Taylor Teagarden – 2009 Projections: 50/18/65/.265
245. Oliver Perez – 2009 Projections: 14-10/4.50/1.42/190
246. Gavin Floyd – 2009 Projections: 12-11/4.50/1.32/140
247. Jeremy Bonderman – 2009 Projections: 9-10/4.50/1.40/125
248. Armando Galarraga – 2009 Projections: 9-10/4.50/1.26/110
249. Chris Carpenter – 2009 Projections: 9-5/3.70/1.27/110
250. Andy Sonnastine – 2009 Projections: 9-9/4.50/1.30/100
251. Joe Saunders – 2009 Projections: 11-7/4.15/1.26/95
252. Mike Pelfrey – 2009 Projections: 10-10/4.50/1.40/100
253. Yadier Molina – 2009 Projections: 35/7/50/.270
254. Gerald Laird – 2009 Projections: 60/13/65/.270
255. Mark Buehrle2009 Projections: 13-10/4.00/1.35/120
256. Chris Ray – 2009 Projections: 1-3/3.75/1.35/40 and 12 Saves
257. Hideki Okajima – 2009 Projections: 5-1/2.75/1.15/60, 24 Holds
258. Scott Downs – 2009 Projections: 4-5/2.50/1.20/60, 25 Holds
259. Scot Shields – 2009 Projections: 4-3/4.00/1.30/70, 27 Holds
260. Rafael Perez – 2009 Projections: 3-3/3.50/1.15/70, 22 Holds
261. Matt Thornton – 2009 Projections: 4-2/3.15/1.10/75, 17 Holds
262. Dan Wheeler – 2009 Projections: 3-2/3.50/1.05/50, 12 Holds and 15 Saves
263. Grant Balfour – 2009 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.15/75, 22 Holds
264. Kaz Matsui – 2009 Projections: 65/5/40/.280/20
265. Freddy Sanchez – 2009 Projections: 80/10/60/.285
266. Orlando Hudson – 2009 Projections: 75/10/45/.280/5
267. Jason Motte – 2009 Projections:  4-3/3.50/1.00/65 and 10 Saves
268. Jeremy Hermida – 2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7
269. Emmanuel Burriss – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
270. Eugenio Velez – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
271. Ian Stewart – 2009 Projections: 65/17/80/.265/5
272. Asdrubal Cabrera – 2009 Projections: 90/12/60/.275/10
273. Ryan Theriot – 2009 Projections: 90/2/40/.295/25
274. Yuniesky Betancourt – 2009 Projections: 65/10/65/.280/10
275. Khalil Greene – 2009 Projections: 65/20/80/.235/5
276. Clint Barmes – 2009 Projections: 75/12/55/.270/12
277. Elvis Andrus – 2009 Projections: 55/3/35/.250/20
278. Jed Lowrie – 2009 Projections: 75/10/80/.260/5
279. Octavio Dotel – 2009 Projections: 2-5/3.95/1.20/90, 20 Holds
280. Cory Wade – 2009 Projections: 5-4/3.15/1.10/55, 30 Holds
281. Tony Pena – 2009 Projections: 5-3/3.50/1.25/55, 25 Holds
282.  Troy Glaus – 2009 Projections:  40/14/50/.250
283. Gil Meche – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.00/1.33/160
284. Bronson Arroyo – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.25/1.40/150
285. Kenshin Kawakami – 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.35/1.40/120
286. Chris Volstad – 2009 Projections: 10-7/4.00/1.30/110
287. Randy Johnson – 2009 Projections: 7-4/3.50/1.20/90
288. Dave Bush – 2009 Projections: 10-10/4.20/1.18/120
289. Paul Maholm – 2009 Projections: 10-8/4.10/1.25/150
290. Aaron Cook – 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.00/1.36/90
291. Edwin Jackson – 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.50/1.50/120
292. John Smoltz – 2009 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.16/60
293. Adam Lind – 2009 Projections: 65/24/85/.275/4
294. Ryan Spilborghs – 2009 Projections: 55/12/65/.300/12
295. Franklin Gutierrez – 2009 Projections: 70/14/75/.260/16
296. Chase Headley – 2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8
297. Chris Dickerson – 2009 Projections: 55/15/50/.250/15
298. Michael Bourn – 2009 Projections: 70/4/30/.240/40
299. Matt Joyce – 2009 Projections: 70/22/85/.250
300. Wladimir Balentien – 2009 Projections: 60/22/65/.250/5
301. Travis Snider – 2009 Projections: 50/15/60/.280

After the 2009 fantasy baseball top 300, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Together they can go 100/20/100/.285/10.  Platoon them in daily leagues.  Grey out.

  1. Steve says:
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    Now. You’re. Talking.

    You’ve excelled yourself, Grey – this is fantastic.

    The only – and I mean the ONLY – downside is that Hippo will have to re-calibrate his projection engine:

    http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=1303.

    I know I’ve asked you this before, but was there anything that stood out/surprised you once you stood back and took a look at this list?

  2. I concur. Kudos, Grey. Kudos!

    As they say on PTI, my boy Travis Snider just made the cut.

    Looking back over past drafts I realized I have a bad habit of taking players a year or two before maturation. (Rookie nookie always makes you pop too quick.) Erv Santana in ’06; Kinsler in ’07; Alex Gordon every year until he becomes worth something.

    This year, the player most likely to be drafted two years too early: Travis Snider.

  3. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Excellent stuff. Now I can finalize my Yahoo list (although Manny isn’t even on Yahoo right now).

    As a self professed fantasy football uber-geek and relatively new to the baseball scene, I’m putting my grapefruits squarely in Grey and Rudy’s hands. I don’t give out my grapefruits to just anyone.

    It worked out well last year as it was my 1st ever playing FB and I won my league thanks to this site.

    I’m a disciple.

  4. Tony says:
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    You really like rickie weeks over howie kendrick? I hate both, but i HATE HATE HATE rickie weeks x11. Have you owned him? Did it once, never again. If a guy can’t hit higher than .235 he’s not worthy, unless his name is adam dunn and he’s jacking 40 bombs, scoring 100 times, and walking 100 times.

    And even then i dont like it!

  5. Adam says:
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    How can you have Greinke just above Matt Garza (157/158), yet your projections for Garza beat Greinke in every category?

  6. Adam says:
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    Really, thats a pretty conservative (horrible) projection for Greinke. What gives?

  7. mc serch says:
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    Ahhhhh yes….that’s the good stuff…..thanks Grey!

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: After Hanley, Reyes and Rollins, I don’t think I’m getting a SS this year. I’ll probably be on closers and starters when most SSs are being drafted. I could see myself with a Theriot or Aviles late in the draft.

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Yeah, I like Snider. I devoted a whole post to him (http://razzball.com/travis-snider-2009-fantasy-outlook/)

    @Frank Rizzo: Glad to be carrying your grapefruits.

    @Tony: Weeks is a .250 hitter with 20/20 skills. He’s so injury-prone and a drain on average it’s hard to see it, but he could exceed his draft slot by a lot.

    @Adam: Greinke has a bit more upside, but he’s also higher in the 20 risky pitcher post (http://razzball.com/20-risky-pitchers-for-2009/)

  9. sean says:
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    @grey: any tweaks to PEDS for 09?

    I’m looking forward to Rudy’s final projections to compare and contrast.

  10. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Hypothetical here.

    10 team draft. You’re picking 10th. How much does scarcity play into your pick? What do you like better?

    1.10 – Utley, 2.01 – Longoria

    or

    1.10 – Utley, 2.01 Teixiera

    Based on Grey’s rankings, if you skip on Longoria there you’re looking at Chipper Jones/Chris Davis with your next pick, if you want to go after a 3B. If you skip on Teixiera you’re looking at A-Gonz, Youkilis, Chris Davis or Votto later.

    I have a feeling if I’m picking 8-10 in my draft, I’m seriously considering Longoria there even if it is a reach.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Trying to decide when to post PEDs. Later today or tomorrow. Probably tomorrow.

  12. Tony says:
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    Which combo would you want more out of these 3……

    Alexie Ramirez, Chris Davis, Joey Votto?

  13. Tony says:
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    @Grey: A couple of 0-5 nights with 5K’s from Rickie and you won’t like him so much. He hit .234 last year and .235 in 2007. IN 2006 he put up one “decent” season and only batted .279 over 359 AB’s. Injuries or not I don’t like that guy and .250 is being generous for rickie weeks. He’s mike Cameron at a better postion. Maybe its because I play H2H, but I just can’t see him benefiting a roto player either. So inconsistent.

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: Depends on the situation, which sounds like a cop out, but if I have a team that is light on power and I need to take a risk to get some, I’m grabbing Davis. But I’m likely going for Alexei and Votto.

  15. Christopher says:
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    @Grey: You stated, “Between Rounds 6 and 8 I look at starters. I try not to look at closers until Round 10.”

    Question: is there any pitcher you’d take before Rounds 6-8?

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Christopher: Great question! I’d draft a starter two rounds after I have them listed in the top half of my top 100. If I have them in the 1st round (Santana), I’d draft them in the 3rd. I’d grab Peavy in the fourth to fifth. Hamels or Webb in the 5th to 6th. I’m basically just drafting value.

  17. Christopher says:
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    @Grey: Thanks Grey! Makes sense: value, value, value. Here’s hoping my league mates draft like “teen pop music lovers”…

  18. @Grey: SS/2B is a real conundrum this year. I know Rudy is down on Alexei (you less so) but I’m thinking of reaching for him in the 4th this year, because he’s eligible (in Yahoo!) at 2B/SS/OF. That way, if I have to take a scrub MI later, at least I have more choice.

    As we near draft time, there’s a lot of variance out there in expert land, where people seem to be divided evenly among three schools:

    1) Elite Pitchers School: Decent boppers (Dye, V. Wells) are available later in the draft, so use your high picks on impact pitchers like Santana/Lincecum/CC. (Counterargument: Tell that to people who drafted Bedard in the third last year. Or Peavy in the 2nd. Or Chris Carpenter back in the day. I don’t want to watch my 2nd round pick spend two-to-four months on the DL.)

    2) Position Scarcity School: There are so few useful MIs, use a high pick to secure one of Reyes/Han-Ram/Rollins/Utley/Kinsler/Alexei/Brian Roberts. Don’t worry about pitching until round 6 or later. (Counterargument: Kelly Johnson et al. are available later and much, much cheaper, and the value differential isn’t great enough to overreach for the top guys.)

    3) Consistent Hitters School: Skip pitchers AND overpriced MIs and use top picks to get consistent sluggers (Berkman, Teixeira, Carloses Lee or Beltran). This kind of reliable power just isn’t available after round 5 or so, when all the shmoes have weaknesses and/or question marks. (Counterargument: Josh Hamilton ’08).

    I’m not sure who to follow, though I will make these two observations:

    1) As someone whose team-power last year went AWOL, it was VERY HARD to pry a slugger from another team in a trade. When someone wakes up everyday to see that Carlos Quentin has slugged another donk, that person feels very warm inside. Even struggling sluggers (like Prince Fielder last April) are hard to pry loose because everyone (including, apparently, you) thinks he’ll come out with a mammoth next month/second half.

    So this year I intend to frontload my team with some beef-eaters in the early rounds. And…

    2) As someone who’s suffered through whole seasons with Julio Lugo at SS, bad MIs can kill you. Sure, a useful Aviles or two comes along on the wire, but you can spend a lot of time doing the Drew/DeRosa/Khalil Greene tango, while someone who “reached” (Kinsler last year in the 5th) sits and laughs it up.

    So I am in favor of reaching, if it means avoided late-round dreck that will stick to your shoe all season. (Oddly, I don’t feel this way about catchers. I never spend for Mauer/McCann/V-Mart. This year, I’m hoping for a Weiters/RHernandez tag-team, fingers-crossed.)

    @Frank Rizzo: I also have a lot of Longo love but have resolved not to reach (i.e. early 2nd round) to get him, and instead target someone who can help in all five cats, like Beltran. If he’s available late second, i.e. picks 20-25, I’d do it, though.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: The biggest variance in strategy between Rudy and I is The MI Situation. I think Alexei is worth a 4th to 5th round pick especially if he’s eligible at SS. I took him in my last mock draft (http://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-mock-draft-part-tre/) and I was happy with how that team turned out. I think the 20/15 Alexei could provide is worth the reach. Maybe I’m so high on him because I’ve watched him play and he has effortless power, which is nice to see from a middle infielder. I also think he’s one of the riskier early picks.

    I’m not a huge pitchers early guy, but I’m also not completely against a SP at the right spot. Rudy’s made enough arguments for drafting SPs early that I won’t go over past posts here.

  20. Josh says:
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    not that i expect anyone cares@Baron Von Vulturewins: i like looking backward at a draft to decide which positions offer the most value at the end. i think for SS there are several good values. how much better is Hardy than Khalil Greene? Felipe Lopez? really not that much better imo.

    Greene and Lopez are essentially replacement level in some more shallow leagues, maybe something like round 18 in leagues with a MI, so after spending all of January taking a SS in round 9 or 10 of mocks, i’ve come to think Tulo, Hardy, Furcal, Drew, Peralta just aren’t worth it unless they slip a round or two.

    basically what i’m saying is that if you have some good values in the late rounds at a given position, that makes reaching unattractive, because there’s potential for profit much later. i learned the same lesson when i used to fill up my OF too quickly in past mocks. conversely, I have very few good 1B values this year so I tend to take those early, even though theoretically it’s a very deep position.

  21. Tony says:
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    @Josh: if you lump greene, lopez, and hardy together wow…. not even close. Hardy has 30 HR potential. He tends to be streaky, but he’s head and shoulders above those two. Greene could be an interesting pick tho moving to St. Louis.

    I don’t believe in any REAL draft you’re touching TULO, Drew, or Peralta in the 10th round, if you do the league is a joke or maybe its an 8 team league.

    Maybe I am reading it wrong. What do you consider a “good 1B value”? Are you only trying to take players who are “good values”

    I’m kinda confused. My philosophy almost feels total opposite of yours. 1B is super deep. I think SS is deeperthan people let on. The OF actually feels shallow to me? More players, but you need to fill more spots with OF’ers.

    ????

  22. James says:
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    How are your projections made? How does Bill James, Chone, and Marcel come up with their numbers? I am not trying to obtain trade secrets or anything, I am just curious if it’s your ball park opinion or computer based.

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: Three shakes of hot sauce and a dollop of I’ve been doing this for a while. They’re a combination of a lot of stats… I look at past 3 years, BABIP, line drive rate for hitters, FIP for pitchers, look at the age of a guy, decide if he’s going to get better, project up or down, look at projected lineup spot, projected PT, etc.

  24. James says:
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    Now that’s special – thanks.

  25. Josh says:
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    @Tony: i’ve gone in circles on this so many times so i am far from convinced that what i wrote is correct. it makes sense to me at the moment.

    but first off, i was comparing Hardy with Greene/Lopez, not grouping them together. my point is if those 2 are available toward the end of my draft, was it worth taking Hardy in the 10th. Hardy is nice and I wouldn’t mind him on my team, but there is a lot not to like. he hits way too many GB for a power hitter (near 50% last year), and his power is his only asset. he is good for 2 steals, and his K-rate/LD% lead many to believe his .283 last year is toward his upper bound, barring improvement. his R/RBI should be a moderate but unlikely to be a major plus. put that all together and you have a very flawed 5×5 player. so again, how much better is he really than Lopez or Greene?

    I don’t get your comment about landing one of those SS in the 10th. they are often there in the 10th in MDC. yahoo has peralta ranked last of that tier of SS. so yes i would expect to be able to get one of those guys in the 10th if i wanted.

    a good value is drafting a player you think will outperform that slot on average. it might be easier to think of it in terms of an auction. if there’s a SS you’re pretty sure you can get for $1 and will return $5 on average, then that’s $4 of value. i would prefer this to getting a SS for $15 who I project will return $15. I’d prefer to spend my $15 on some other player I think can return $16+, even though it leaves me without a SS.

    1B is deep but personally, I don’t feel like I’m getting great value anywhere except Votto and maybe Adrian depending on where he goes. I expect Votto to go in the 5th or early 6th in competitive leagues. if you wait too long, you might end up taking negative value if you’re desperate for a 1B and James Loney is your top available on in round 8. if you could have one of the following, which would you take: Prince late 2nd, Adrian late 3/early 4, DLee late 6, or Delgado, Loney, CoJax in the 8th or 9th? those are all their MDC ADP’s (except cojax, who’s buried on the MDC draft list). prince in the 2nd looks like the best value to me. maybe you feel differently.

    for OF, i am a fan of taking them early, and then later. i hate having my OF already filled up when guys like Upton and Dukes are sitting there in the teens. plus, there will be OF to gamble on or pick up like Werth, Cruz, Dukes, Span, Quentin, Ludwick, McLouth and many more last year. there are usually lots of good values at that position, so I like to have a need for an OF or 2 in the late teens.

  26. Sol Rosenberg says:
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    Hart is ranked #53 and Milledge is #141, yet their projections are almost identical. Hart = .275, 22 HR, 20 SB, 75 runs, 80 RBI. Milledge: .280, 18 HR, 20 SB, 75 runs, 90 RBI. What gives?

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Sol Rosenberg: Hart’s done those numbers before and Milledge has not. There’s a lot more risk with Milledge.

  28. Eric W says:
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    Who you got Dukes or Milledge if the both get 500+ AB’s this year?

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eric W: Dukes, but he’s riskier.

  30. James says:
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    Great list Grey, but I have one issue. Did you miss Adam LaRoche? I think you’ve wrote negatively about him in the past, but if he didn’t get injured while in the middle of a tear last year he probably has 30 homers and 100 rbi. Granted he’s a 1B, but he does seem worthy of top 200 to me let alone top 300. He always sucks to start the year, but turns it on later as his 974 second half ops from 08′shows.

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: I’d never draft him, but he was an omission. My bad. Thanks for pointing it out. I’ll squeeze him in.

  32. James says:
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    As you can tell I am somewhat new to saber. I know the basics, but fear I don’t know how to use it correctly. Are there any books that you believe would help me advance my knowledge on this subject? Would you then suggest getting the baseball prospectus subscription after I have read your suggested reading materials?

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: Hmm… Not sure. What sorts of things are you unsure on?

  34. James says:
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    Ummm — to be honest I am not sure because I don’t know the depths of sabermetrics. I first figured out sabermetrics by reading the glossary from this Yahoo! article: (http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news;_ylt=AjbNcBBU90Xc8HMXsbX1cnJvTNAF?slug=ys-saberglossary-mlb)

    I thought it was pretty good because it provided a league average that could be used for a comparison. Is this all I need to know about this sabermetrics? I assumed this can’t be everything! How did you learn? I figured you would know a book that would explain everything.

  35. James says:
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    Do I just use these statistics, by comparing them to the league average, to determine if a player is playing at a sustainable level?

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I’m not really sure where your skill level is to begin with so it’s hard to tell you where to turn. I really like the Fangraphs site that is in the blogroll there on the right. But it might be too advanced. Honestly, I don’t know where I picked sabermetrics up, I just read bits and pieces here and there over the years and eventually just got it. Maybe osmosis?

    re: 2nd question — Players should be compared against their own averages, now against league averages.

  37. James says:
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    I have been reading those articles, and find them very informative. I guess ill just continue reading them and anything else I can find about sabermetrics. By the way, I liked that post about over/under rated sabermetric stats. Any chance there will be a future article titled, “Razzball’s Favorite Saber Stats and How to Apply Them?” Ha!

    Yes, that is right, but what is the league average used for when analyzing players? Is it used for rookies that don’t have major league track records? How can you use minor league numbers when the talent is weaker? Plus, how do you compensate for players just getting better?

    PS – these are my last questions on this subject today. =)

  38. James says:
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    Thank you!

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: Say a guy is a .330 average hitter in the minors. He’s not going to become (at least he shouldn’t) a .220 hitter. So the same applies for the saber stats. A player has a certain set of skills in the minors then he should have them in the majors. Maybe not at first, but at some point. When that player doesn’t translate, something else could be at work or he’s just slow to progress. This is why people (me!) say Alex Gordon should come around, because he’s shown good skills in the minors and they haven’t translated yet. Gordon is almost at the end of his leash though. This season is kinda do or die for him to show something.

  40. James says:
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    Gotcha – thanks!

  41. papasmurf says:
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    Best scenario I suppose would be the Godzilla goes down, and Nady and Swisher both get to play. With a short RF porch, Swisher should hit a bunch out, if he gets to play. I just don’t feel like drafting either one. In fact, in my ongoing slow draft, Nady and Swisher both remain on the board after 240+ picks.

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @papasmurf: Swisher seems like a good pick there. I’m not crazy about Nady. BTW, are we sure the new Yankees Stadium has the old short porch?

  43. papasmurf says:
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    I am not a Yankz fan (In fact I hate’em) but I’ve heard that the dimensions are identical to the old stadium, the old stadium being “hallow ground” and all. Basically it’s the same stadium with better sewage system I suppose and some “state of the art” jazz. Or jizz. I don’t know. Maybe both.

  44. Dean says:
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    So…Wainwright is at 53 and 104 on your Top 300 rankings. Split the difference at 78? Just giving you a hard time – love the site

  45. Dean says:
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    Or I could head to the loony bin since this is from 2009?

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