2009 Razzball Projected Point Shares – 12 Team

Point Shares = The estimated difference in an average fantasy team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position.
This is not a suggested draft sheet. You need to factor Average Draft Position and the strategies of your fellow drafters for that. The purpose is to show the projected fantasy value of each player based on a diversified mix of leading statistical projection systems. These projections are based on Marcel, CHONE, and ZiPS projections weighted by Baseball Prospectus AB/IP. Saves projected by Razzball. For 2 Catcher leagues, catcher values increase about 1.5 Point Shares.


NOTES:

Stat Sources:

  • CHONE – CHONE is a stat projection system created and maintained by Sean Smith who also writes his own Angels blog called Anaheim Angels all the way. The 2009 CHONE projections can be downloaded for free here. Please note that CHONE does not project saves – we guesstimated saves based on projected opportunity as of January 10th. In addition, Since CHONE projects more 300+ AB+ players than realistically possible, we excluded any player not expected to reach that level using Marcel AB projections and team depth charts.
  • ZiPS – ZiPS is a projection system written by Dan Szymborski to project performance in individual baseball players. Dan’s work can be found on Baseball Think Factory. The ZiPS stats can be downloaded for free here.
  • Baseball Prospectus – The apex of the Sabermetric world. Their ‘deadly accurate’ PECOTA system was designed by Nate Silver in 2002-2003. Their projections require a subscription – I recommend their new $19.99 Fantasy subscription which gives access to the stat projections and news throughout the year. While analysis has shown only minor differences in accuracy between Baseball Prospectus, CHONE, ZiPs, and Marcel, BP is the sole one of the four that estimates playing time – an essential element for fantasy baseball as 7 of the 10 standard stats are ‘counting’ stats which are directly affected by ABs/IPs.

Headers:

ALL POS – All eligible positions for 2009. Based generally on 20 game eligibility.

RATED POS – This is the position that was used for their Point Share rankings. This is the position where the player is judged most valuable. The order of most valuable to least valuable for positions is: C, 2B, SS, OF, 3B, 1B, DH.

P Flags – These are pitcher flags based on our Risky Pitcher analysis that focuses on previous year pitch counts/types. Pitch counts and types sourced from FanGraphs. The letters refer to the following:

  • A = 30+% breaking balls and 2,000+ pitches
  • a = 27-29.9% breaking balls and 2,000+ pitches
  • B = 700+ spike in pitches between 2007-2008 (note: amongst pitchers with 2700+ pitches or extreme spikes and 2000-2699 pitches)
  • b = 700+ spike in MLB pitches between 2007-2008 (but not if Minor League pitches included)
  • C = 2008 was first year above 2700+ pitches

AB – Noted if a player fell below 350 or 450 AB. Minimum of 250 projected AB.

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