we suck again!

Fantasy football season over and now I can focus on baseball again. Whoopeeteedooooo! Guess just saying hello and informing everyone I’ll be around more and more over the next few months…

…so what did I miss??

Everyone leans on player projections to determine their pre-draft rankings. But it’s difficult to determine the relative value of each stat (e.g., what’ s more valuable: a 30 HR – 10 SB guy or a 15 HR – 50 SB guy?) and values among positions (e.g., what’s more valuable: a 20 HR shortstop or a 30 HR 1st baseman?).

The Point Shares do that work for you. It takes each stat and converts it into one relevant metric (points in the team standings). Positions are factored in – a SS and 3B with comparable stats will have different values.

The #1 reason why I wouldn’t draft CC Sabathia with my 1st pick has nothing to do with player value – it has to do with the fact that I can get one of the top 5 pitchers in the 3rd round b/c that’s how everyone drafts.

On a side note that I’ll expound on as we get closer to the draft, I don’t feel there’s a standout SP out there worth a top 5 pick. Last year, I thought Santana, Peavy, and Webb were worthy of top 10 picks and was 2/3 right (only Peavy’s injury and unfairly low wins kept it from being 3 for 3). There have been years where Pedro and Randy Johnson should have been the first two picks (check their old stats – 300Ks and Sub 1.00 WHIP during above-average offensive years). With Santana’s creeping WHIP, I just don’t see a slam dunk pitcher that I’d grab in the 1st round vs. risk trying to snap up with my 2nd or 3rd round pick…

@sean: I think you should wait for Rudy on that one.

@Rudy: bravo on the piece about starting pitching. For me, its just hard to shake the feeling on draft day that I am chasing if I select a SP in the first two rounds, even if it’s Johan.

@danimal35: Re: Longoria, this is because the Marcel projection system doesn’t factor in playing time. It projects ABs based on past years and has Longoria @ 400 AB b/c he didn’t play a full year in 2007. When we create the official Razzball Point Shares (mid/late Feb ETA), we’ll adjust the contributing Marcel stats to better represent expected playing time.

@Jared: Hey Jared. Welcome to the Razzball comment section. The Point Shares are completely objective and just translate the provided stats into what is estimated to be the points per category that this player would improve the average team with the average player.

It’s a good question, though. Why are pitchers more valuable in 12 team than 10 team? The reason is that the addition of 10-11 more pitchers into the rostered pool has a bigger effect on the value of pitchers than the addition of 2-3 more hitters per position. I suppose it mirrors MLB during expansion years – offense goes up b/c pitching gets spread too soon and pitching affects hitting more than hitting affects pitching.

As for why, in general, pitchers rank high in Point shares, there’s a succinct explanation here: http://razzball.com/razzball-2008-player-rater/. As for draft strategy, here’s my take on drafting starting pitching: http://razzball.com/groaning-at-bad-punditry-%E2%80%93-drafting-starting-pitchers-in-the-first-3-rounds/