Comments on: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections (CHONE)

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 01:56:33 +0000

@Steve J.: The last two updates I did for 10 team and 12 team – which combine Marcel, CHONE, and ZiPS projections and adjust for playing time and injuries – went up on March 7th. See here (http://razzball.com/2009-razzball-point-shares/).

By: Steve J.

Steve J. — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 01:31:34 +0000

are these going to be updated again to account for injuries (like arod)?

thanks

By: Ben

Ben — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:57:52 +0000

ok got it, excellent info!

By: Ben

Ben — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:30:26 +0000

I’m sorry, meant to ask if it was available in excel spreadsheet format.

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:25:31 +0000

@Ben: If you scroll over 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings at the top of the site, you’ll see them. Either way, it’s here (http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-rankings/2009-razzball-projected-point-shares-12-team-marcel/)

By: Ben

Ben — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:22:46 +0000

Is there a link for the 2009 Projected Point Shares for 12 team based on Marcel?

Thanks.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:20:56 +0000

@zagi-CRO: We just focus on fantasy baseball here so we wouldn't convert the data into expected winning %s for real teams. I don't think Marcel, CHONE, or ZiPs does this but they might. Baseball Prospectus does this I believe - if they didn't do it explicitly, you can just take hitting Runs, subtract Runs (given up) and then divide by 10 to determine the # of wins above/below 81 (I believe this is called the Pythagorean win projection).

By: zagi-CRO

zagi-CRO — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 15:27:54 +0000

Please, do you have projection of the final record for all teams based on your methodology?

Regards, Zagi-CRO

By: Nick

Nick — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 21:23:47 +0000

I like with where you’re going with this. However, the first thing I would say is to eliminate hits/9 from your stats. The thinking is that hits allowed are in part a function of team defense, rather than pitcher skill. I like the idea of using the rate stat projections to come up with a projected FIP or QERA or something like that. If you want more of an explanation of this stuff, email me privately at nickojohnson at yahoo and I can give you some additional resources.

By: Dungeness Dragons

Dungeness Dragons — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 19:41:16 +0000

This is a really interesting discussion and I hope you don’t mind me jumping in.
This year, I am relying heavily on CHONE for my pitching projections. It’s my belief that ERA and (to a lesser degree) WHIP are both so noisy that they should not be projected directly. Instead, I’m constructing another composite measure based on projected K/BB, K/9, HR/9, and hits/9.
I’m pulling Saves from Marcel. I’m very interested in the Reliability measure but I’m having trouble figuring out how to use it. Treating it as a discount factor doesn’t seem right since it seems to include both positive and negative risk. Any thoughts?