Comments on: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections (CHONE)

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 01:56:33 +0000

@Steve J.: The last two updates I did for 10 team and 12 team – which combine Marcel, CHONE, and ZiPS projections and adjust for playing time and injuries – went up on March 7th. See here (http://razzball.com/2009-razzball-point-shares/).

By: Steve J.

Steve J. — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 01:31:34 +0000

are these going to be updated again to account for injuries (like arod)?

thanks

By: Ben

Ben — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:57:52 +0000

ok got it, excellent info!

By: Ben

Ben — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:30:26 +0000

I’m sorry, meant to ask if it was available in excel spreadsheet format.

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:25:31 +0000

@Ben: If you scroll over 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings at the top of the site, you’ll see them. Either way, it’s here (http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-rankings/2009-razzball-projected-point-shares-12-team-marcel/)

By: Ben

Ben — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:22:46 +0000

Is there a link for the 2009 Projected Point Shares for 12 team based on Marcel?

Thanks.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:20:56 +0000

@zagi-CRO: We just focus on fantasy baseball here so we wouldn't convert the data into expected winning %s for real teams. I don't think Marcel, CHONE, or ZiPs does this but they might. Baseball Prospectus does this I believe - if they didn't do it explicitly, you can just take hitting Runs, subtract Runs (given up) and then divide by 10 to determine the # of wins above/below 81 (I believe this is called the Pythagorean win projection).

By: zagi-CRO

zagi-CRO — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 15:27:54 +0000

Please, do you have projection of the final record for all teams based on your methodology?

Regards, Zagi-CRO

By: Nick

Nick — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 21:23:47 +0000

I like with where you’re going with this. However, the first thing I would say is to eliminate hits/9 from your stats. The thinking is that hits allowed are in part a function of team defense, rather than pitcher skill. I like the idea of using the rate stat projections to come up with a projected FIP or QERA or something like that. If you want more of an explanation of this stuff, email me privately at nickojohnson at yahoo and I can give you some additional resources.

By: Dungeness Dragons

Dungeness Dragons — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 19:41:16 +0000

This is a really interesting discussion and I hope you don’t mind me jumping in.
This year, I am relying heavily on CHONE for my pitching projections. It’s my belief that ERA and (to a lesser degree) WHIP are both so noisy that they should not be projected directly. Instead, I’m constructing another composite measure based on projected K/BB, K/9, HR/9, and hits/9.
I’m pulling Saves from Marcel. I’m very interested in the Reliability measure but I’m having trouble figuring out how to use it. Treating it as a discount factor doesn’t seem right since it seems to include both positive and negative risk. Any thoughts?

By: Steve

Steve — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 23:29:56 +0000

@IowaCubs: Ha! I know what you mean.

Not to worry – there will be others and they will be well publicised

By: IowaCubs

IowaCubs — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 23:21:50 +0000

@Steve: Usually every night is kids night for me since my wife's 8 month's pregnant. I went to see Girl Talk this weekend in Des Moines and was back home by 11. I think that was the first night I've gone out in like, well, three months. I'll be in full Mock mode in March.

By: Steve

Steve — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 18:43:13 +0000

@IowaCubs: For sure. Is Monday Night Kids a regular thing for you?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 18:23:57 +0000

@IowaCubs: Yes, we’ll have something like that. Kind of like the Best Values spreadsheets from 2008 – http://razzball.com/2008-draft-rankings/2008-best-values-10-team/

By: IowaCubs

IowaCubs — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 18:22:30 +0000

@Steve: Yeah, I saw that... I can't tonight. Gotta take care of my kids. Tonight we're working on Eli's changeup and Truman's working on blocking the plate. Sure they're 2 1/2, but it's never too early, right? Surely there will be another mock sometime soon. @Rudy Gamble: What do you think of doing an "Over/Under" index? This would be the player's value minus their ADP. Eh?

By: Steve

Steve — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 18:08:21 +0000

@IowaCubs: Get in the Razzbal mock tonight. Details in the forum...

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 18:02:33 +0000

@IowaCubs: Thanks. Will definitely add ADP into the eventual Point Shares.

By: IowaCubs

IowaCubs — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 17:58:13 +0000

Good job once again, Rudy!

My only suggestion would be to throw in ADP somewhere in there eventually. From there, we could do some sort of a +/- on where people are being drafted in relevance to their draft position and put a true “value” on their overratedness or underratedness.

By: sean

sean — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 16:21:59 +0000

Nice to see some heavy hitters add legitimacy to the statistical ranking discussion!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:58:46 +0000

@TangoTiger: Thanks Tango (aka the person behind Marcel). I've got to think through how to incorporate reliability within the rankings...

By: TangoTiger

TangoTiger — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:21:36 +0000

My comprehensive analysis of the 2007 forecasts (posted on my blog) shows that Chone and PECOTA to be neck-and-neck. Nate Silver’s limited analysis of the 2007 forecasts shows similar findings. My limited analysis of the 2008 forecasts shows that Chone is ahead. Marcel is just a smidge behind both, which is impressive considering it basically gives a pass on all rookies. If anyone wants to dispute any of these findings, then please provide your evidence.

I would say that you MUST use the “reliability” column provided with Marcels. And, the playing time forecast is the most important thing in fantasy sports, so you have to get that right first.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:11:49 +0000

@Chone: Thanks for adding a fantasy POV to the projections. @BigFatHippo: Yeah, don't expect a $40 Vazquez evaluation by the time we have official Point Share estimates in mid/late Feb...

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:29:11 +0000

@Chone: Oh you're a real person. I thought you were a computer animation, sorta like Wall-E. Fair enough then, $20 is not out of line. @Nick: And I'll take the over.

By: Chone

Chone — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 04:48:25 +0000

I don’t trust my projections to pay $40 for Javier Vazquez. But I do trust them enough that if everyone else thinks he’s just a 15-20$ pitcher, I’ll go to 22-23 and take a chance that he’ll be a big bargain this year.

By: Nick

Nick — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 04:41:48 +0000

@Rudy: Thanks!

@Hippo: So we’ll set the over/under for Javy at the midpoint? That would be 3.79 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. I’ll take the under.

By: big o

big o — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 01:34:42 +0000

the 13th day of christmas …. 13 hippos weeping .

makes me wonder what the 11th commandment was .

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 01:17:24 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Everyone else (the everyone being me) thinks CHONE is bullshit.

Vazquez at 3.26 and 1.15?

Give me a break, I’ve seen grown men weep over getting him with a 20 dollar bid. Career 4.32 and 1.27 leads me to the following prediction………………………..

Hippo’s Fearless Projection: Vazquez

4.32 ERA
1.27 WHIP
Grown men weeping? Priceless!

By: Steve

Steve — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 00:53:55 +0000

@Rudy Gamble & Grey: Just seen the T-shirts in the shop – nice work, boys!

Is that free shipping to New Zealand?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 23:40:05 +0000

@big o: PECOTA is the projection methodology devised by Nate Silver @ Baseball Prospectus. It even has its own Wikipedia page – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA. I definitely recommend shelling out for the Baseball Prospectus – good projections and entertaining read.

By: big o

big o — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 23:23:54 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: another name i've heard is pecota . can you provide a link . or a brief explanation ? thanx .