Compared his stats with Sizemore and they have similar K rates (20+ % of ABs – not good for AVG) and Home Run / Fly Ball rates (about 11-14% of fly balls which is good).

The big difference, though, is that Sizemore hits a lot more fly balls than Kemp. Kemp hits 35% fly balls / 45% ground balls while Sizemore is 45% fly balls / 35% ground balls (the rest are line drives). This also explains why Kemp has hit for a better average despite his K’s.

So if Kemp is going to be valuable, he’s going to have to keep up the steals and I’m not sold. He’s not a leadoff hitter. He’s not super fast. I think the best bet for him is 17 HR / 25 SB w/ okay AVG, R, RBI. If he played 2B/SS, I’d draft him in first 3 rounds. Otherwise, he’ll be that same overrated pick like last year’s Alex Rios (sorry Grey).

http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/priceguide/

Pretty cool. You can use 2008 stats, or 2009 Marcels, CHONE, and CAIRO (?). Looks like it operates off of replacement level, but it does include averages and what the replacement level is for each position, which is a first and very cool. Doesn’t break down the value by category like Point Shares or the RotoTimes rater though. I emailed the author to ask some questions about what the iterations mean a few other things.

Matt Wieters 419 AB, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 59 R, 3 SB, .274/.352/.439
(similar to Soto, Doumit, VMart, Molina, minus some RBI)

Jay Bruce 493 AB, 27 HR, 77 RBI, 78 R, 10 SB, .276/.334/.509
(studly)

Evan Longoria 452 AB, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 71 R, 5 SB, .265/.346/.476

David Price 79 IP, 4 W, 59K, 4.90 ERA, 1.49 WHIP
(obviously the IP is off but the rate stats don’t look great)

Clayton Kershaw 115 IP, 6W, 102K, 4.23 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
(meh)

Not really sure how the minor league numbers are used when computing the projections, but it was interesting that Bruce looks better than Longoria. Note too, that I’m not sure how CHONE assigns projections for lineup dependent stats like R and RBI. And on the pitching side, I know he does do defensive projections, but I’m not sure if these are considered when projecting things like ERA & WHIP that are dependent on team defense. CHONEs are, however, park adjusted.

On a side note, it doesn’t look like CHONE projects saves. Which is understandable. Just will make assigning fantasy values a bit more tricky.

http://www.baseballprojection.com/

On the right side of the page there are spreadsheets available for hitters and pitchers. You probably already found them, but in case someone else was looking…

Will correct for that in the late-Feb release of the official Razzball Point Shares which will adjust their projections based on more realistic playing time projections…

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=piCDkhc7lgqVf96Npvk7cfg

But yes, as your system already takes averages into account, you’re okay as long as you average the point shares as opposed to the raw numbers.

On another note, is there any way to make the marcel point shares projections available for download as an excel file or whatever? It’s kind of hard to navigate and sort all the ways I’d like to when its inside that little box here on Razzball.

Thanks.

I agree about improving the projections with projected playing time. One of the things I like about PECOTA & BPro’s PFM is that they continue to do updates on playing time/roles through Spring Training up to Opening Day. I remember a couple years ago when it came out that Cory Hart was going to play full time and they prorated his projections and he shot up the rankings. So I would say that they’re a good source (it’s in the depth charts), but they do miss stuff sometimes and it might be nice to have another source to cross-check with. And as far as I know, they don’t use a batting lineup spot component, which we know can have a large effect on R and RBI.

The one big improvement I can see to the Marcel and ZIPs data will be to multiply their projections against a projected playing time percentage. This would factor out issues like Putz’s save projection, guys who won’t have a starting position anymore, etc. Know any sources for this?

No plans just yet to allow a ‘fill-in-your-projection’ system but this can be done. I’d probably require using the playerID system used in Marcel & others to make it easier to match players up (fuckin’ Chris Youngs, Tony Penas, etc.). Hanley Ramirez = ramirha01.

Rudy

I’m curious as to how point shares would be different if you included these, because with MI especially, the average at the position would go down considerably I would think. I know it’s a ton of work, but any plans to do something like this? Or make your methodology available (I’ll totally pay) where we could just plug in our own projections? Think maybe you were considering this in the past but I could be confusing you with Derek Carty.

Boom-tish!

Do me a favor and click on that IQ test thingy and tell me what town it says. My home town came up and I’m telling you, the IQ is not that high here.

Sorry, between working on my business plan and discussing baseball and watching The Mentalist my mind is fried. Worse than 85 maybe! Nah, couldn’t be.

I could have easily interjected 2008 tire gross profit of 22.8% into Peavy’s innings pitched and none would be the wiser. Even me.

If he’s dealt to the Cubs it’s bound to be the new curse, he misses a month with jockular sphincteritis. Call it the Hippo Hex.

I’m lookin at you, Jake Peavy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: WBC? Hip-Hop radio station? What are these foreign things you speak of?