Comments on: 2009 Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Preview

By: James

James — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:43:21 +0000

Agreed – I am going to pass. Thanks

By: Grey

Grey — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:36:29 +0000

@James: He should grow, not regress, but I'm also considering Manny was otherworldly in those last two months, as well. But lineup protection wasn't the root of all that was right with Ethier and BABIP doesn't tell the whole story. It's better to be safe than sorry. I get my info from Baseball Prospectus, which is subscription, and Baseball-Reference.

By: James

James — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:31:25 +0000

OK – I wrote that post before your BABIP information. Where do you find the BABIP information per month?

By: James

James — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:29:51 +0000

All I am saying is that we saw a glimpse of stellar play, and the catalyst for that stellar play will probably be there this year. Are we mistaken to take that piece of information and except someone to grow not regress?

By: Grey

Grey — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:25:41 +0000

@James: His BABIP last year in the 2nd half was .375 and .492 in the last month. His OPS, OBP, SLG, isolated power, Line drive rate, etc... Everything was off the charts in those final two months. Your numbers are possibilities, but their also his ceiling. Remember, before this last 2nd half of 2008, he was looked at as a guy who might pass 15 HRs if he got lucky.

By: James

James — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:14:49 +0000

I don’t think he is going to hit 30 or steal 15, but 90/25/90/5/.310 isn’t out of the realm of possibility is it? I am an SB snob too, but I think this guy could be solid as a number 3 OF’er if you are OK in SBs.

By: Grey

Grey — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:03:16 +0000

@James: I put his 2009 Projections at 80/17/75/.290/5 -- That seems about right. Maybe 20 HRs, maybe .300 average, but he's more or less a 4th to 5th fantasy OF. I don't see much upside in him. If Manny comes back, it helps him a little, but he's not suddenly going to hit 30 HRs and get 15 Steals. There's also downside and if he hits only 14 HRs and steals 3, you're not going to be happy with him.

By: James

James — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 00:50:20 +0000

Grey – re: Either
You mention how his crazy month won’t easily be repeated; however, this period does coincide with a consistent role and hitting in front of Manny. I don’t think he will hit .400, but can’t you extrapolate that he will be better than mediocre. Wouldn’t that suggest he can improve on his already solid numbers?

By: Tony Y

Tony Y — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 22:15:21 +0000

yeah i am thinking 8th at the earliest, 9th would be ideal, but the Hype machine is out on him so who knows… At least the guy in my league that is from Bills hometown (defiance, OH) isn’t in the league anymore haha….

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 21:52:04 +0000

@Tony Y: He's going to go somewhere in the 75 to 100 range, so it's how bad you want/need him. I'd make him my first pitcher off the board at 75 if lots of other pitchers were taken and I needed him. I'd prefer him in the 9th to 10th round.

By: Tony Y

Tony Y — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 21:48:04 +0000

whats the earliest in a 12 teamer you’d go for billingsley?

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 21:33:52 +0000

@James: Those are fair concerns and I could totally see your reasoning. Really would've been nice to not have the leg injury to worry about.

By: James

James — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 20:37:06 +0000

Billingsley will probably have a sweet year; however, I am going to pass due to mounting concerns. Last year I passed on him because of his groin injury in the spring. My reasons this year will be his leg and increase in pitches.

The groin last year and a broke leg could be foreshadowing an arm injury this year — I don’t think he is as bullet proof as we all think. This might seem like me being a nit picker, but if you are investing a high pick, you can’t mess it up. I rather pick a guy that has no concerns.

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 20:24:36 +0000

@Eric W: I think it's only a matter of time... That Manny's a Dodger, not a Weber Grill salesperson.

By: Eric W

Eric W — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 20:19:57 +0000

The dodgers need to sign Manny fast before Weber grills swoops in and signs him as there new salesman god knows he can move some product.