Fantasy Baseball Advice

FTBOTR is For The Back Of The Room, that’s who this post is for.  Our 2009 fantasy baseball projections have been posted.  These 2009 fantasy baseball projections are not quite like every other site’s fantasy projections.  Ours come in the form of Point Shares. This is a very basic system to understand, this is our Player Rater.  Let’s look at David Wright, who comes in first on the 10-team 2009 projections list.  David Wright will give you 5.49 Points in your ten team league over the average third baseman.  So if you have Kevin Youkilis (.05 Point Shares) at 3rd and you trade him for David Wright, you’ve essentially gained a bit more than 5 points in the standings.  That’s not too hard to understand, right?

These specific 2009 fantasy baseball projections use Marcel’s stat projections from the site TangoTiger.net.  Rudy uses these projections because they are free. He will also be putting together 2009 projections for Point Shares using a few other free services. Then he will do one cumulative Point Shares spreadsheet using all the projections systems.  If you run a site and would like Rudy to use your projections, I’m sure there’s some way we can work this out.  Finally, a bit of good news for those in auction leagues.  Rudy added dollar amounts to the Point Shares spreadsheet, so go check it out.  For those who want projections in the form of stats and not Point Shares, I will personally be going over every single worthwhile player in my annual top twenty posts in January and giving you some of my own 2009 fantasy baseball projections.  Stay tuned for those.  In the meantime, have a great holiday and hopefully whereever you are the Heat Miser and the Snow Miser are on speaking terms.

Maybe Arod and Mark Teixeira can double date with Madonna and Sheryl Crow.  Latino Blanco Twin powers activate — form of a mild salsa!  Form of a Tequiza tequila-flavored beer!  Form of a Chardonnay Sangria!  The Yanks sign Teixeira, figuring it would be easier than letting him sign with the Nationals and then buying the entire team. Everyone who has Teixeira in their 2009 fantasy keeper leagues just let out a huge sigh of relief.  Thank God, he’s not going to the Nats.  (Speaking of which, isn’t it weird that the Expos were baseball Siberia in Montreal and they move to Washington and they’re still a baseball Siberia?  If you moved the Nationals to Anywhere, U.S.A, which also happened to be a hot bed for diehard baseball fans, suddenly no one would be interested.  Guaranteed.)  So, of course, the Yankees grabbed Teixeira.  They only spent 6 kagillion dollars so far this winter.  Way under the 10 kagillion The Boss gave Hankenstein to spend.  Maybe they can lure Manny to the Bronx with the extra 2 kagillion.  So what does this mean for Teixeira for fantasy baseball in 2009?

Tuh-SHARE-uh is a lock for 100/35/110/.300.  Whereever he is playing.  In the middle of the Yankees lineup, he’s good for the ceiling on his 2009 projections.  Think 110 RUNS and 125 RBIs.  It will be interesting to see what the New York media thinks of PABST (Post-All-star Break Stats Teixeira) when he gets off to his usual slow start.  But, without fail, Teix always comes around to producing good numbers even if they have to wait until July.  He was already going in the beginning of the 2nd round in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and this should just solidify his place there.  I could see Mark Teixeira going anywhere from 7th to 15th overall.

In our series of 2009 fantasy sleepers, I take a detour down my own personal Heartbreak Hill.  Anyone who has read this site for a few knows I had a huge crush on Alex Gordon going into the 2008 season, so it’s with great regret I must confess, “Gordon, I can’t quit you.”  That’s right, I’m pegging Gordon as a fantasy sleeper for the 2009 season.  Real shame I’m a moron, huh?  I wanted to ignore Gordon in 2009, but I just couldn’t.  When Katy Perry sang, “You’re yes then you’re no… You’re in then you’re out… You’re up then you’re down… We fight, we break up… We kiss, we make up…”  She was prolly talking about me and Alex Gordon.  I’m Josh Hamilton and Gordon’s my crack cocaine.  You reap what you sow and Gordon has dibbled his way into my heart.  Whoever started the Brian Shouse Fan Club, I hereby hire you to do a similar site for Alex Gordon.   I will pay you in adulation and expired cigarette coupons.  So what can we expect from Gordon for 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

Let’s pull up a stool to The Real Life Situation Bar and explain Gordon in some terms you might understand.  You remember that girl you picked up at the bar last year who was kabang from the front and kaboom from the back?  She was way out of your league.  You’re only hope was her falling off a boat, coming down with amnesia and thinking you were Kurt Russell.  Unfortunately, you weren’t on a boat.  You were in the line for the bathroom with a splotch of ketchup on your Big Johnson T-shirt.  Somehow God took pity on your sorry ass and this girl not only was willing to talk to you, but she also had DiDi Seven Stain Remover.  One ketchup stain and a few beers later, you ended back at your dorm room and through a miracle of miracles, you got lucky.  Then you woke up to find the most hideous breasted creature.  You realized you unknowingly took home the girl everyone on campus called The Unibrowser and you were out Firefoxed!  Now, to get The Unibrowser out of your room before anyone saw her, you began to explain to her how every morning you need to apply ointment to your cold sores.  She just laughed and showed you the Eggs Benedict she made for you while you were sleeping.  You tasted them and they were perfect.  So, like any real man, you decided to wolf down brunch, then kick her out.  Then, as you finished the eggs, she explained to you how she’s the daughter of the owner of Friendly’s and she’s the heir to the Fishamajig® throne.  So she’s rich and she can cook.  Hmm… Now you’re thinking about how you’re not such a great prize either and maybe you two can make a Happy Ending together.

So in this scenario, The Unibrowser is Alex Gordon and you’re you.  2008 was when you woke up and saw her unibrow.  Now in 2009, you never want to see her again, but you need to let The Unibrowser make you eggs and reveal that she’s loaded.  Don’t forget why we all liked Gordon to begin with.  Gordon’s final minor league season had him putting up 111/29/101/.325/22.  Yes, he’s sucked in the majors, but George Brett, who he’s most often compared to, only had 11 home runs his 2nd major league season.  I’ve seen Gordon show up in 2009 mock drafts surrounded by some stalwart schmohawks as Carlos Guillen, Ty Wigginton and Mark Reynolds.  Everyone has been burned by Gordon at least once in the last two years.  In 2007, he was destined to be the Rookie of the Year and in 2008 he was on everyone’s short list to take the next step.  Now he’s ending up on everyone’s “You Will Never Burn Me Again” List.  He comes with risk, but he has the skills for 75/20/75/.280/15.  Don’t kick The Unibrowser out of bed just yet.

Note: Besides providing advice and news on fantasy baseball, we at Razzball created and now sponsor a game where the goal is to manage a team and compile the worst stats.  These Historical Spotlights honor those players who would’ve excelled in such a format.   See here for more info. See here for the summary of the inaugural 2008 season.

True love is rare.  True love means not just accepting the good and the bad – it means never even thinking to judge.  True love is a warm embrace – like a passionate wet kiss you don’t want to end, a steamy mug of cocoa that you don’t want to stop drinking, a fever that you never want to leave your system….

True love is what Houston Astros owner Drayton McLane Jr. feels for our Razzball Historical Spotlight inductee Brad Ausmus.

Brad Ausmus (an Americanized version of the popular German surname Ahsmünch) is a hard man not to love – especially if you were a Jewish mother with a single daughter.  A good Jewish boy out of Connecticut, graduated from Dartmouth, a successful professional…(you could do worse…)

He began his career in the Yankee farm system and was plucked from their roster in the 1992 expansion draft (along with Charlie Hayes and Carl Everett) for the Rockies and Marlins.  After a couple of years on the Padres and Tigers, he was part of part of possibly the most Razztastic trade ever -  an 8 person trade b/w the Tigers and Astros that included Ausmus and 2 other Razzball Spotlight members (Jose Lima, Brian L Hunter).  It was as if Detroit traded GM and Chrysler to Houston for Enron.

Ausmus’ initial 2 year stint (1997-1998) in Houston resulted in okay hitting and two first round playoff losses.  When Ausmus wasn’t hitting for the collar, he and his open collar hit on Houston girls.

In what McLane would later say was “The biggest mistake of my life”, the Astros found the trade receipt and returned Ausmus to Detroit.  Ausmus made the All-Star game in 1999 with Detroit – the benefits of playing for a crappy team and rules requiring each team has at least one representative.  The Astros managed to make the playoffs in 1999 only to lose again in the 1st round.

In 2001, McLane listened to his heart and re-traded for Ausmus.  The trade came just in time as Ausmus was set to embark on a Razztastic eight season hitting stretch during which he plumbed levels that had never been plumbed before.  Now if you’re the type that thinks Ausmus is the Bossmus (i know at least one), you’re probably thinking, “Was Ausmus really any worse a hitter than all those light-hitting catchers I grew up with?”  Well, let’s look at the stats…

The best way to compare vs. previous eras is to use the OPS+ metric which adds OBP and SLG then factors in league and park averages.  Ausmus’s 2001 (57), 2003 (55), 2004 (63) and 2006 (54) mark the 3rd, 4th, 15th, and 7th lowest OPS+ seasons by any catcher with 448+ plate appearances since 1930.  No other catcher even managed two seasons in their career that were as bad as this crappershop quartet Ausmus produced in a six year period.  In 2002, he became the 2nd player in the last 100+ years to hit into at least 30 double plays and not hit 30 extra base hits.  He managed the GIDP>XBH feat again in 2006 with 21 GIDP to 19 XBH.

When asked to pack Ausmus’ ‘tools of ignorance’, the equipment guys would pack his bats instead of his catching equipment.  His hitting was so cartoonish that opposing pitchers would call the Astro hitter “Rad Rausmus”.  Tony LaRussa laid awake at night wondering if he coached Ausmus whether he’d hit him 9th and let the pitcher hit 8th or would he keep Ausmus 8th and have him bunt and let the pitchers swing away.  But all the while, the Astros kept penciling his name in the lineup card – praising him for everything from his defense to his handling of his pitchers to the pristine condition of his game-used bats.

Starting in 2007, the Astros realized that they couldn’t count on Ausmus (then 38) to forfeit the 8th spot in the lineup forever.  Ausmus took Eric Munson under his wing in 2007 but Munson’s 74 OPS+ proved too competent and he was promptly waived at the end of the year.  Ausmus graciously took a backup role to J.R. Towles in 2008 and watched as Towles exploded onto the Razzball scene with an otherworldly .137 AVG and 34 OPS+ in 146 ABs.

While Ausmus maintained his torpid streak of hitting in 2007-2008 despite additional rest and more favorable matchups, he could see the writing on the wall.  He realized the only way he could repay the love that McLane and the Astros showed him was to heed Sting’s advice and set them free.  Carlos Lee even offered to pay his salary but Ausmus refused, stating “It’s certainly flattering but I had an unprecedented 8 year run here.  My job is done.  Plus, as Carlos’s accountant, I had to advise against it.”

Ausmus is currently trying to sign on with a Southern California team.  One would think his bat would fit in just perfectly with San Diego.  Until then, he’ll be hitting the waves – hopefully more successfully then his hitting of baseballs.

Brad Ausmus – Jewish Sports Hall of Fame honoree and now Razzball Historical Spotlight inductee.  You’ve made us so proud, bubelah!

Update:  Funny tribute video by the Astros for Ausmus.  Nice to see they have a sense of humor about this stuff.

Okay, the Final Jeopardy answer is 107/40/118/.302/8.  Do do do do do do do do… doot do do do do do do… What is Bill James predicting Chris Davis will do in 2009? That’s correct! “What is Bill James smoking?” would have also been accepted.  Those numbers look a lot like MVP numbers.  I’ll shave my ’stache if Chris Davis wins the MVP in 2009.  That’s right, I said it!  Marcel Projections have Chris Davis in 2009 at 54/16/55/.288/3.  Our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections, which is using only the Marcel Projections as of right now, has Chris Davis at -3.23 in 313th place.  Between Akinori Otsuka and Tom Gordon, one guy who didn’t pitch last year and another guy who hasn’t pitched well since Stephen King wrote a book about him.  And I think Stephen King gave up writing books to write for EW ten years ago.  There’s got to be some in between with these projections, doesn’t there? Somewhere in the middle isn’t so bad.  Ask Monie Love, Malcolm or lunchmeat.  So what can we expect from Davis in 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

He’s a sleeper because he’s being drafted after some other 3rd basemen whose names I curse, such as Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Atkins and Aubrey Huff.  Chris Davis will hit more home runs than these three schmohawks.  Shoot, he already beat Bummerman in 2008.  In 26 less games, Davis hit three more home runs than Zimmerman.  Then there’s Atkins, someone who might want to start eating carbs again.  In 300 extra at-bats, Atkins only hit four extra home runs.  Then there’s Huff… Does anyone really want Huff?  Wasn’t that Showtime show enough?

In 2009, I think Davis’s OBP will rise a bit, his BABIP will come slightly down and his average will stay about where it was in 2008, the .285 range.  He’s country strong and can do The Mashed Potato like Dee Dee Sharp.  His strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he was able to maintain a decent average in the minors with all of those Ks.  His upside is greater than a lot of guys going into the 2009 season, but, as is often the case, his risk is greater too.  I’m going to preach some caution because of his youth and the Ks.  I think he should get to 85/30/95/.280/2 in 2009. When the top corner infidels are off the board in mixed leagues, Chris Davis is someone to grab.  He should go after guys such as Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins, but give much better numbers.