Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m not sure if Jeff Kent will retire. I’m sure his wife doesn’t want him to retire because he seems like he’d be a miserable prick around the house. Why doesn’t this remote work?! She sighs, “You have to turn on the TV first.” Maybe he lands as a DH somewhere in the AL. Either way, Kent prolly won’t be on the Dodgers next year. So that opens 2nd base in 2009 for the Dodgers. This should be filled by Blake DeWitt, no relation to Joyce DeWitt, against righties and Mark Loretta against the occasional lefty. Okay, so what can we expect from Blake DeWitt for 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

In 2008, Blake DeWitt was rushed to the majors to fill-in at 3rd base prior to the Casey Blake move. He was marginally meh, but never quite eh or feh. He has limited power and speed. Kent could prolly out-homer him even in his 41st year on the planet and Rickey Henderson could still outrun him. Blake’s ideal 2009 has him at about 60/14/75/.275/7. Kelly Johnson just yawned reading those numbers.  Now Blake also has corner and middle eligibility (here’s a list of all the players that have multiple position eligiblity for 2009), and there won’t be many 2nd basemen who come as discounted as Blake in 2009 fantasy drafts. Some of the schmohawks I’ve seen drafted before Blake are Mark Loretta, David Eckstein, Nick Punto, Mark Grudzielanek and Marco Scutaro.  I just vomited in my mouth writing some of those names. So towards the end of your NL-Only drafts or very deep mixed leagues, Blake DeWitt is a good sleeper name to have stashed away.

There’s only two types of years for AJ Burnett.  He’s either playing hard because it’s a contract year or he’s hardly playing because he contracted an injury.  Unless the Yanks are willing to give him a new contract every year to add to this one (which is definitely possible with the Yank$), our guess is that this will be a lot closer to a Pavano redux than a Mussina repeat.  For now, Burnett becomes the Yankees number two pitcher, though Wang might have a thang to say about that. Or maybe Joba will be considered the number two by the end of 2009.  So what say I about Burnett for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Burnett’s fairly unpredictable and now that he has a contract it’s almost guaranteed that he’s not going to be as productive in 2009 as he was 2008.  He’ll probably go in 2009 fantasy drafts sometime in the second fantasy pitching tier (think Dice-K, Haren, Shields), though he’s more likely to give you value of the third or fourth tier with all his injuries, i.e. Burnett’s overrated. But, and this is J. Lo-sized but, if he can make it through 2009 healthy, Burnett could give you 18 to 20 wins, a mid-3 ERA and 200+ Ks. In 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, this is the kind of guy I would grab if my pitching were already stacked. Let me explain, you’re in a keeper league and you already have Johan and Halladay. Here, you grab Burnett because if he flames out in 2009 — no big whoop, you’re already set with a solid one and two starter.  In all other cases where AJ’s drafted like he probably will be in 2009, I’d let someone else take a chance on The AJ Burnett Variety of Injuries Show.

Not Krispie Young. I’m talking about the lanky, San Diego pitcher, Chris Young. (Though some may say Krispie is also a sleeper.) Last year, POO-holes put a little extra stank on a rope right back at Young’s nose.  Young ended up only starting 18 games and a few of those starts were obviously just, “Let’s see if he can start and not crawl into a little ball cause Pujols put the fear of Xenu into him.”  By the end of the season, Chris Young put a string of four consecutive starts together with a 1.55 ERA, including a September two-hitter against the playoff-bound Brewers.  Chris Young should be back in 2009 in a big non-skull fracture type way. Does that make you giddy? It does it for me. Anyway, let’s see what we can expect of Chris Young in 2009 and why he’s a fantasy sleeper.

In 2007, Chris Young had an ERA of 3.12, but post-All-Star break he only had an ERA of 4.80 as he seemed to hit a wall with a tired arm. This would make sense since he came off a season of 164.2 and 179.1 in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Guess how many innings Chris Young threw in 2008? Nope, lower. Even lower! 102 innings. After he throws 175 innings in 2009, I might be cautious in 2010, but right now I don’t care. Do you? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a year from Chris Young of 175 IP and a 3.50 ERA.  The best part is Young isn’t going to be drafted high at all. He’ll prolly go around fourth fantasy starter territory, say 170.  I’ve seen him drafted in the same ballpark as Andy Sonnanstine, Andy Pettitte, Jon Garland and Jeff Francis. For a guy who will be drafted as a fourth starter, but give you 2nd starter numbers, Chris Young is a great fantasy sleeper for 2009.

A non-stop flurry of nothing came out of Las Vegas as the Winter Meetings came to a close, as the gold nuggets ended up being turd nuggets.  Not that this deal was a real whopper, but Melky and Mike Cameron wasn’t finalized so I’m not going to go into that yet. Felipe Lopez, Matt Joyce and Edwin Jackson found new homes, so I’ll cover them. Yay, we get to hear about three schmohawks! Oh shut up, random italicized voice. Yes, these three guys aren’t quite as riveting as Teixeira landing somewhere, but that will have to wait for another day. Anyway, here’s some smaller deals that went down on the final day of the Winter Meetings and how they’ll effect fantasy baseball:

Felipe Lopez – Not even a blip on the radar when the Diamondbacks signed Felipe Lopez to a deal, but this could be a huge addition to some 2009 NL-Only and deeper mixed leagues. Felipe Lopez went 35/4/24/.360/4 in only 189 at-bats after the All-Star break last year. Sure, multiplying stats by three is about as indicative as a cute girl with a twitch winking at you, but Lopez is capable of those stats. He’s only going to be 29 for the 2009 season and could go 20/20/.260 in a full season. Can any of youse say 2009 fantasy sleeper? I knew you could.

Matt Joyce – Matt Joyce went to the Rays for Edwin Jackson. At worst, Matt Joyce figures to be the strong side of the right field platoon for the Rays. In AL-Only leagues, he could be a great endgame bargain being able to hit 15-20 home runs and chuck in some steals, though he will be a liability on average. In most mixed leagues, I’d let him pass, unless he’s showing some serious signs in spring training.

Edwin Jackson – Edwin Jackson went to the Tigers so he could try to finally fulfill that top prospect label he picked up seventeen eons ago in Los Angeles. I haven’t given up on Jackson yet, but it would be nice if he started striking out some hitters again while keeping his walks down. In AL-Only leagues, Edwin’s a good late round flier who you shouldn’t mind dropping fairly quickly. The biggest ancillary (<–Word of the Day and I’m not sure I’m using it correctly, but whatever helps you people sorta learn) effect of this trade is David Price has a rotation spot. Lates, Edwin.

Yes, sometimes I try and make the titles double entrendres just so we get traffic from really bizarre places. Now if I were to mention the Mets are now throwing a Rod and a Putz, our traffic would skew even further. Now if I were to continue to say things like I think the Mets should hire Dick Pole to be their pitching coach, or that Mike Piazza probably wishes he were still catching for the Mets or how I own posters of Antonio Sabato Jr…. Well, you get the idea. Then they read on to find out I’m talking about 2009 fantasy baseball, Kerry Wood and J.J. Putz. Bummer, doodes! Hopefully, we can convert some of our new readers though. I hate to tease Wood and Putz then send people away, um, empty-handed. So with the signing of Kerry Wood in Cleveland and the huge trade of J.J. Putz, we need to look at how this impacts them for 2009 fantasy baseball, don’t we? (It’s rhetorical.)

Kerry Wood – In my offseason look at 2009 fantasy closers, I labelled Kerry Wood a Donkey-corn. That hasn’t changed with him signing a deal with the Indians. There I placed him 20th on the 2009 closer list. Now, I’d move him up to about 15th. He was lower more or less because of his uncertainty about where he would sign.  Now that he landed somewhere that needs a closer like an old man needs soup.  Wood, we’re good.

J.J. Putz – We’re not as good. Um, dooode just lost all his value in one full swoop. Oh well, I doubt any of youse have drafted yet, so it’s better to know now then lose him midseason.  I’d own Putz in NL-Only leagues that utilize middle relievers and, really, all NL-Only leagues should utilize middle relievers. As Houdini once may have said, “This Putz makes a good handcuff.”

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu! Holy schnikeys, he reemerges with fantasy value!  Anyone who has read this site for an extended time knows I have it a bit for The Big FraGu. He lands in Seattle after this three-way trade. This could be exactly what he needs to make him fantasy relevant in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper. Now he’s absolutely draftable in AL-Only leagues. In fact, I’d go as far as to call him a 2009 fantasy sleeper. He could go 20/15 and be a tremendous asset in deep leagues. Can you tell I’m really psyched about The Big FraGu? Yeah, I don’t hide my enthusiasm very well.

Brandon Morrow/Aaron Heilman – This trade just gets more and more spectacular from a 2009 fantasy veiwpoint. Towards the end of last season, Morrow was stretched out so he could be a starter. So, of course in 2009, he becomes a closer.  There’s some speculation that Heilman could be the closer and Morrow the starter, but I think that’s foolish for the Mariners to do. Then again, the Mariners have been foolish before. I think the smart move is to make Heilman happy and make him a starter like he so desperately wants.  While Morrow will realize he can get big bucks by being a closer even if it’s not as challenging (and, yes, I am saying it’s easier to be a closer than a starter). Morrow has succeeded before in the closing role while Heilman has failed in that role. This is really a no-brainer. Anyone who disagrees, have ‘em come talk to me.  I’d call Morrow a Donkey-corn and place him about 17th on the list of 2009 fantasy closers.