Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day we looked at the top free agent hitters in 2008 and now we go over some of the top free agent pitchers for 2008. Similarly to the other day, these are not all of the free agent pitchers. So there’s no reason to write in about how we forgot Josh Fogg. He was remembered then forgotten; there’s a difference. These free agent pitchers could potentially see their fantasy value take a hit or surge with a team move.  A list of all the free agents is here. Anyway, here’s some top free agents for 2008, the pitchers’ edition:

CC Sabathia – Sabathia almost didn’t make this list. Not because he’s not a free agent. He is, a top one at that. I just don’t see his value changing a whole lot with a new team. If he goes to the Yankees, he’ll be facing tougher hitters than the NL Central — pho sho! He’ll still be dominant and he’ll still be coming off a season when he was overworked.

Ben Sheets – Here’s another guy that I don’t think gets that affected by free agency as long as he stays healthy– Just as I was typing that, a butterfly in the Republic of Djibouti flapped its wings and Ben Sheets pulled an abdominal muscle.

Brian Fuentes – Fuentes needs to land with a team that needs a closer for him to retain his value. Otherwise, his value will be this.

Francisco Rodriguez – Wherever he lands, he’ll get at least 70 saves next year. (<–sarcasm) He might benefit a bit by the move to the NL (since he’s almost definitely going to the Mets), but he’s still never going to see a saves season like he just did.

Oliver Perez – All indications are that Perez will vacate Queens. I could see Perez hurt by a move. A new team will have to figure out what makes Oliver Perez work then try to duplicate it from start to start. Good. Luck.

A.J. Burnett – The number one crazy hot chick in baseball. One day, a shutout and 12 Ks. Next day, pretending to be pregnant so you won’t go out with the fellas. Burnett’s a fantasy ulcer waiting to happen.

I have a rotten taste in my mouth and it’s called, “Holliday is traded to the A’s.” Not sure how much Billy Beane’s recently widowed aunt left him in the will, but it obviously must’ve been a tidy sum. The A’s just made themselves a contender. Or a contenda if Marlon Brando’s ghost is a Razzball reader. For those in NL-Only leagues, Holliday’s loss is your loss. In AL-Only leagues, you just got yourself a nice new addition. Pitchers going to Coors and Holliday going to a pitcher’s division. There’s that rotten taste again. The Holliday trade from a fantasy perspective:

Matt Holliday – Takes a huge hit on his value, but it doesn’t completely zap all of his value. As a Rockie, he was a 1st rounder. This knocks him back to the third round. He is a lot more of an average hitter than a big bomber. Let’s not forget, he only hit 25 home runs calling Coors home. Now he’ll be dealing with pitchers he’s not as familiar with and dealing with a ginormous foul territory.  Rumor has it that the foul territory in Oakland is home to Bigfoot. No one’s sure because half of it is unexplored like the Arctic. Holliday will play most of his games in pitcher’s parks in a pitching division. A slight change from Coors where the air was as light as LC and Audrina conversations — No, Brody looked at me first! Not to mention, the A’s intestinal suckitude when it comes to moving runners and stealing. The steps forward Holliday took in adding speed into his game in 2008 may take a step back in 2009. Then there’s the fact it’ll be a walk year for Holliday since the A’s won’t negotiate a contract with him (unless Beane’s dead aunt was really wealthy). So, in a walk year, it’s conceivable to think Holliday will A) Try to do too much and do less B) Not run to avoid injury C) There is no C but I believe in rule of threes. Overall, Holliday’s fantasy value takes a hit, but he’s still a number one outfielder and a 3rd rounder overall. Think Justin Morneau in the OF.

Two things really stood out for this 2009 fantasy baseball mock draft. 1) I was not familiar enough with the draft interface. 2) It’s November. Hey, Grey got a calendar! Awesome! Yes, the date is obvious, smart ass. I’m just pointing out the obvious because so much will change between now and January, let alone March, that it’s very difficult to evaluate this mock draft. I will still do my best in my inimitable style. Yo, I’m inimitable! The draft was held at Mock Draft Central and organized by The Fantasy Man. Before I get to my thoughts, written as I was drafting, here’s my fantasy baseball team for the first mock draft of 2009:

As we went along, here’s my observations. Mock me, if you like:

1st and 2nd Rounds: The draft began pretty poorly because I was logged into my MDC account, but I guess there was another account made for me. I wasn’t aware of this until ten minutes into the draft. So it was my pick (12th out of 12 teams) right when I entered. The draft chat went basically like this. “Grey, you in?” “Yup.” “You’re up.” I look at the clock to see I have 28 seconds for my first two picks. I grabbed Upton and Holliday.  I’m severely computer-stupid so this could’ve all been my fault and I don’t blame Mock Draft Central. I’m sure if I were doing this draft in 2009, I would’ve been better prepared with the draft interface. In fact, I’m better acquainted with MDC’s software now from just doing this one mock draft.

3rd and 4th Rounds: I was eyeing my old standby Alexis Rios (who is now Alex Rios. Or maybe it’s Alex is Rios?), but he was taken right before my turn. I was scooped, ya’ll! I went with Webb and Adrian Gonzalez. My thoughts during this round, “Where the eff did all of the 1st basemen go already?” Seriously, Gonzalez or Lee were my choices. I don’t want Lee, whose numbers are beginning to resemble a 2nd baseman. Some other guys that went in the 4th round who I wouldn’t want this high: Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer and Garrett Atkins.

7th and 8th Rounds: Soto went in the 7th round. I’m not a fan of grabbing top catchers, but that was really good (mock) value. I grabbed Oswalt and Stephen Drew in these rounds. Kazmir went right after Oswalt, and I contemplated him for a brief second, but decided Oswalt was a bit safer. Drew will be my 2009 crush. I’ll cover him ad-nauseum during this offseason. Ronnie, Bobby, Ricky and Mike, I like Drew. Who cares who you like?

9th and 10th Rounds: I grabbed Matt Capps and Francisco Cordero, the top two closers left on the board. I contemplated Marmol and Huston Street instead of the aforementioned schmohawks, but I didn’t grab them because of the uncertainty right now (in November) of their closing situations. Billingsley went right after Capps and I mock kicked myself that I didn’t grab him. BTW, Triumph, the Insult Comic Dog just came on my iTunes. I do not keed.

11th and 12th Rounds: All right just grabbed Posada and Saito by accident. I timed out and it Auto-Selected for me. This was my error because I was typing up the last paragraph and jamming to Triumph, the Insult Comic Dog. By the time I looked up, I had Posada and Saito. I wouldn’t draft either of them, especially not Saito, but c’est la vie. I imagine a lot of this team would change because of how early I’m mock drafting (in November) and if there’s one thing I can find on the (mock) waiver wire is (mock) closers.

13th and 14th Rounds: I was set to grab Conor Jackson but someone (mock) grabbed him right before me. Since I was scooped again, I went with Cantu and then a longshot pick, Ian Stewart. I wanted average in this round and did not get it. I prolly could’ve (mock) waited on Stewart until the 23rd round, but this is a mock draft, so whatevs.

15th and 16th Rounds: In a boneheaded move, I grabbed Cameron Maybin, but it’s (mock) November (wait, it really is November) so this could end up being the mock steal of the mock draft or not. No way of knowing right now. Then I snagged John Maine — the real one, not mock one.

19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd and 23rd Rounds: I grabbed Billy Butler, Iannetta, Scot Shields and Denard Span respectively with my last four picks (and, if you must know, Cypress Hill came on iTunes… Here is something you can’t understand, how could I choose Denard Span…). These were actually my best value (mock) picks of the entire mock draft. I expect three of these four guys will not only play, but play well for their draft position. Then there’s Shields. It was between him or Wheeler for potential saves. I think Arrendono will take over for K-Rod, but Shields is a favorite of Scioscia so there’s potential there.

Here’s another 2009 Fantasy Baseball Keeper post so that could mean only one thing — it’s Friday! Before we get into today’s keeper post, page yourself to the front desk so your boss thinks you’re doing something. Nice. Okay, now that John Q. Walmart is out of your hair, let’s look at the Marlins centerfielder, Cameron Maybin. Is he Hanley Ramirez in the OF? That would turn your fantasy baseball team up a notch, wouldn’t it? What, you can’t get behind an Emeril reference? Whatevs. Maybin is an unrefined five-tool stud. Sorta like a young Burt Reynolds. You want speed? Yeah, Maybin’s got that. As Josh Hamilton may have once said at gunpoint, “I swear to you, he has speed!” Maybin could end up leading off for the Marlins, pushing Hanley to the three hole. This would be ideal for Maybin’s fantasy owners. Yo, G.A., Maybin have any power? Yup, but it’s still developing. In 2009, fifteen to twenty home runs may be (hehe) too much to ask from Maybin, but there’s a chance that he could be a 10/50 guy, much like Jacoby Ellsbury in 2008. Past 2009, Maybin could become a 25/50 guy or Hanley in the outfield. That makes Maybin one of the top keepers for 2009. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Dallas McPherson – Hey, it’s Marlins Day! Hey, Marlins Day, say hi to your mother for me. When the Marlins GM was asked how they are going to make up for the power they lost with the Jacobs trade, you know what he said? Hire Canseco as their strength and conditioning coach? No, silly. He said, McPherson would see playing time at 3rd. He’s got piz-op.

Matt Holliday – This might seem obvious to some, but I’ve heard some people panicking over these swirling Holliday trade rumors.  If Holliday does leave Coors, his value takes a hit but there’s time to cross that bridge. With the Phils or Mets, he’ll still have solid lineups around him. We’ll figure out his fantasy worth if he is indeed traded, until then hold onto him.

DON’T KEEP

Rafael Furcal – I’m sure someone will overpay this offseason for Furcal’s services. (I’ve heard the A’s are interested. When did they come into money? Did Billy Beane’s rich Auntie die?) Furcal pulled a Kotchman in 2008 and I wouldn’t bank on him bouncing back in 2009. Maybe Beane just likes the idea of an injury-prone shortstops — See Crosby, Bobby.

All Time Baseball (ATB) is a fantasy league played using a computer simulation called, Diamond Mind Baseball. Owners draft any player-season in the history of the sport (within some playing time limitations) and then create lineups, rotations, and depth charts, and finally turn their managerial preferences loose on the game egine to simulate a full seasons worth of games. All results, box scores, and statistics are posted weekly to a centralized website.

You may recall my request for new owners a few weeks ago and our league had the good fortune to have several Razzball readers apply for ownership. With this in mind I thought a general update would hold some interest and while our draft is still going strong, round 20 of 30, we can pause and take a look back at the all important first round. There is no need to dissect all 20 picks and commentary will provided for the more interesting ones.

Please note that while similar to fantasy drafts, ATB requires a full 30 man squad with all positions filled (i.e., RF, CF, LF not 3 OF) plus defense counts. It isn’t only about which player had the best offensive statistics as all owners have to take into consideration offense, defense, and league context.

Pick #1 – Babe Ruth, 1921 – LF
.378 / .509 / .846, 59 HR, 177 R, 171 RBI, +4 NSB, 1.355 OPS, Av LF

Historically in ATB, Ruth is the common number one overall draft pick with the only question being the year chosen. Many point to Ruth’s 1927, sixty-home run season as his best, though most ATB’ers recognize that 1920 and 1921 were better seasons, and one can even make a case that 1923, 1926, and 1919 where superior when taking league and park context.

Ruth 1921 was the choice for this draft and it was of course a monster. One item to note however, is that he played in the Polo Grounds in a year that inflated HR totals for lefties by about 70% which is taken into consideration by the game engine. The right field line was just 256 feet away from home plate this year.

Pick #2 – Barry Bonds, 2002 – LF
.370 / .582 / .799, 49 HR, 117 R, 110 RBI, +7 NSB, 1.381 OPS, Av LF
It’s an interesting question – which of Bonds’ seasons is his best. This owner chose to foresake the moster 74 HR year of 2001 but was it the right choice? Let’s see how each season compared to the league average in their slash stats:

2001 2002 2004
AVG 27% 45% 39%
OBP 57% 77% 84%
SLG 114% 105% 100%

These figures depict how much better each is when compared to the league average player at the time. 2001 lags behind both 2002 and 2004, and the choice between the latter two are a matter of preference – what would you rather, a better batting average and slugging or a better on-base percentage?

Pick #3 – Mickey Mantle, 1956 – CF
.353 / .464 / .705, 52 HR, 132 R, 130 RBI, +9 NSB, 1.169 OPS, Vg CF
Mantle likely isn’t as good of an offensive player as Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, or perhaps even Jimmie Foxx, but his combination of high average, power, and Very Good defense is very hard to pass up. ATB is a league that considers many aspects of the game, and defense is key.

Pick #4 – Pedro Martinez, 2000 – SP
18-6, 1.74 ERA, 217 IP, 128 H, 32 BB, 284 K, 5.3 H/9, 11.8 K/9
Hands down, Martinez is easily the best pitcher in the 10 year history of ATB. Year in and year out he performs better than any pitcher, and some believe with two offensive studs in Bonds and Ruth, Pedro is the most unique player in the game and is a #1 overall pick. In 2000, his incredible 0.74 WHIP was 114% better than the league average; the next closest pitcher of all time relative to league average is Greg Maddux, whose figure is ‘only’ 70% better. Further, Martinez had an extremly high strikeout rate and the two combined make him unstoppable.

Pick #5 – Ted Williams, 1941 – LF
.406 / .549 / .735, 37 HR, 135 R, 120 RBI, -2 NSB, 1.284 OPS, Av LF

Pick #6 – Randy Johnson, 1999 – SP
17-9, 2.48 ERA, 271 IP, 207 H, 70 BB, 364 K, 6.9 H/9, 12.1 K/9
Johnson’s selection is our first potential owner error. It’s a matter of preference in roster construction as to which direction you want to go in – best batter, best pitcher, positional scarcity – but Johnson is historically not the second best pitcher in the game. Maddux is “1 B” to Martinez’s” 1 A” and while Johnson is a very good pitcher, his WHIP was 1.02, by no means of historical significance.

Pick #7 – Rogers Hornsby, 1924 – 2B
.424 / .503 / .696, 25 HR, 121 R, 94 RBI, -7 NSB, 1.199 OPS, Av 2B

Pick #8 – Greg Maddux, 1995
19-2, 1.63 ERA, 210 IP, 147 H, 23 BB, 181 K, 6.3 H/9, 7.8 K/9

Pick #9 – Addie Joss, 1904
14-10, 1.59 ERA, 192 IP, 160 H, 30 BB, 83 K, 7.5 H/9, 3.9 K/9
Joss is one of my all-time favorites, a deadball era pitcher that pitched in a ballpark that slightly favored batters in 1904. He didn’t strike out a lot of batters, a common theme during his era, but that doesn’t really matter if one keeps his ERA under 2.00, a feat Joss accomplished an incredible four times.

One quibble with this selection is in the choice of year. In 1908 Joss went 24-11 with a 1.16 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. This year, 1904, he went 14-10 with a 1.59 ERA. Either appear to be great however.

Pick #10 – Honus Wagner, 1908
.354 / .411 / .542, 10 HR, 100 R, 109 RBI, +32 NSB, .954 OPS, Ex SS
Is a batter who hits just 10 HR a stretch for the 10th pick overall? Not when it fills a need at the most scarce offensive position in the game, save catcher. Plus, Wagner is one of the few middle infielders awarded the best defensive rating available and it’s not as if he was weak with the stick.

Roughly speaking, his batting line in 1908 is equivalent to a current line of .385 / .450 / 750. Now imagine Ozzie Smith with this line and you have the Flying Dutchman.

Pick #11 – Jimmie Foxx, 1932
.364 / .466 / .749, 58 HR, 151 R, 169 RBI, -4 NSB, 1.215 OPS, Vg 1B
I am not a fan of counting stats when evaluating players, but my goodness – 58 HR, 151 R, 169 RBI all with Very Good defense .

Pick #12 – Willie McCovey, 1969
.320 / .453 / .656, 45 HR, 101 R, 126 RBI, 0 NSB, 1.108 OPS, Av1B
McCovey is not good enough for the 12th overall pick, but there’s a reason he was selected here. An owner dropped out of the league the day of the draft and didn’t let the commissioner know. We scrambled to find another owner, and did, but he didn’t get a chance to make his first round selection until well into the second round.

The laugh’s on us though, in pre-season exhibition play McCovey’s ‘regular season pace’ was 76 HR and 173 RBI. He’s since been traded to another division.

Pick #13 – Lou Gehrig, 1927
.373 / .471 / .765, 47 HR, 149 R, 175 RBI, +2 NSB, 1.236 OPS, Av1B
Only three players in history have slugged as high as Gehrig, and him dropping outside the Top-10 makes the Yankee first basement a steal. Further, his ATB track record is extremely good making him a low risk pick as well.

Pick # 14 – Ty Cobb, 1909
.377 / .427 / .517, 9 HR, 116 R, 107 RBI, +34 NSB, .944 OPS, VgCF

Pick # 15 – Arky Vaughan, 1935
.385 / .488 / .607, 19 HR, 108 R, 99 RBI, +2 NSB, 1.095 OPS, VgSS

Pick #16 – Walter Johnson, 1913
36-7, 1.14 ERA, 346 IP, 232 H, 38 BB, 243 K, 6.0 H/9, 6.3 K/9
The “Big Train” was awesome in 1913, and he is widely regarded as one of the Top-5 pitchers of all time, many believe he’s the best ever.

Pick #17 – Tip O’Neil, 1887
.435 / .494 / .691, 14 HR, 167 R, 123 RBI, +15 NSB, 1.185 OPS, AvLF
A relative unknown, Tip O’Neill was a star in the American Association during the mid to late 1880s. His batting average is the second best single season mark of all time. While displaying little power, O’Neill is an ideal #2 hitter in a potent lineup, and a #3 batter in a moderate one.

Pick #18 – Christy Mathewson, 1905
31-9, 1.28 ERA, 339 IP, 252 IP, 64 BB, 206 K, 6.7 H/9, 5.5 K/9

Pick #19 – Joe DiMaggio, 1939
.381 / .444 / .671, 30 HR, 108 R, 126 RBI, +17 NSB, 1.115 OPS, ExCF

Pick #20 – Tommy Bond, 1876
31-13, 1.67 ERA, 408 IP, 355 H, 13 BB, 88 K, 7.8 H/9, 1.9 K/9
The last pitcher taken in the first round of the 10th ATB draft is the first “deadball era” hurler we’ve seen. Bond was a work-horse, pitching in over 400 innings and starting 65% of his team’s games. As a testament to the times, be assured his 13 BB in so many innings is not a typo. Bond also has three seasons of 500+ innings to his credit and in 1878 started 59 of 60 games for his Boston Red Caps.