Or as someone with the first name Howie would call him, Howie Shmendrick. (In case, Sandy Koufax isn’t reading this to you, I’ll run down some baseball Yiddish. Erick and Willie Aybar are mishpochah, Manny Ramirez is meshuge, and Kendrick is a shmendrick.) Let’s breakdown the MI food chain. Placido Polanco is yawnstipating. Jeff Keppinger is Blanco Polanco. Howie Kendrick is wack. This year Kendrick finished with 43/3/37/.306/11. Not very impressive numbers, but he was injured for the better part of the year, only registering 340 at-bats. The problem is, Howie Kendrick is injury prone — Oops, I said it! — and may only get 340 at-bats in 2009, too. Now Kendrick does hit for a high average (In. Expli. Ca. Bly. Since he walked only 12 times all year), but it’s proving to be a very hollow average so far in his Major League career. He hasn’t sniffed double digit power yet and his speed is fine by a Carlos Lee standards, but as a light-hitting 2nd baseman, he better be stealing more than 11 a year — injury or not. So, each keeper league is obviously different, but my recommendation is to not keep Howie Kendrick. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team:
KEEP
Max Scherzer – Jobacum’s already been covered in a Scherzer Keeper post, but I have news to update. According to the Diamondbacks, Scherzer will only be a starter from here on out. To keep the Yiddish theme going, no more putzing around for Scherzer in middle relief. Mazel tov! If that news causes you to have an erection for longer than four hours, it’s understandable. So far, Scherzer has looked extremely sharp in the Arizona Fall League.
Delmon Young – Maybe it’s his bravado, maybe it’s his attitude, maybe they’re the same things. Either way, I feel Alive with Pleasure like a Newport anticipating what Delmon can do in 2009. Anyone who could hit 30 home runs and steal 20 should get you excited.
Joba Chamberlain – Joba Rules say he is ‘officially’ going to be a starter in 2009. This is according to Hankenstein, Cashman, Girardi, Joba and Penny Marshall. This will ‘officially’ change seventeen times during the offseason.
DON’T KEEP
Mark DeRosa – Do you know how fast a .280/20/80 2nd baseman loses his value? Ask Mark Ellis.
Jayson Werth – Werth had a good year, no doubt. Twenty-twenty outfielder who hits .273 has value in all leagues. What about an outfielder who hits 15 home runs, steals 10 and hits .260? That’s like Randy Winn with dysentery.
On Monday I finished up the hitters recap with the 21 – 40 outfielders for 2008. That’s after going over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen and the top 20 outfielders for 2008. Phew… Now exhale through your nose, Downward-Facing Dawg, and inhale as we look at the top 20 starters for 2008. As we went forty deep with the outfielders, we’re going to need to go forty deep with the starters. The hitters showed a definite lack of offense in 2008 so that must mean the top 20 starters are deep with quality choices, right? Look at the big brain on generic italicized voice. I based these rankings on the ESPN Player Rater, which I don’t fully agree with, but I want the rankings to be as neutral as possible. For a better player rater, download our fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:
1. Roy Halladay – When Borowski, Todd Jones and a host of other schmohawks missed the bowl for three months straight, Halladay’s 246 innings of a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was just the kind of disinfectant your staff’s bathroom needed. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions: 15-7/4.00/1.25/120, Final Numbers: 20-11/2.78/1.05/206
2. CC Sabathia – Nearly topped the list and he had an awful April. Take a look at this ‘pert roundtable. People were falling over themselves to unload Sabathia. He was shelled in the playoffs! He threw 600 trillion pitches in ’07!He looks like a fat Dontrelle and now he’s pitching like one! Sometimes it’s best to hold tight. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions: 20-9/3.40/1.15/210, Final Numbers: 17-10/2.70/1.11/251
3. Tim Lincecum – Here’s a guy I warned everyone about in the preseason. Am I dumb or prejudiced against the non-mustachioed? Probably a bit of both, but I worried Lincecum would struggle a bit on a decimated team. A lack of offense when coupled with a very young pitcher… Anyway, he did fine. Obviously. Dur. Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers: 18-5/ 2.62/1.17/265
4. Cliff Lee – You had to disregard everything you’ve ever learned in your life, including basic math, to trust Lee to rank this high. That’s why Karabell, the Forrest Gump of fantasy baseball analysts, was the only ‘pert to predict this. Somewhere in a rough, tumbleweeded neighborhood, Hater Bell shakes his fist at the gray sky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 22-3/2.54/1.11/170
5. Johan Santana – Didn’t it seem like he had a mediocre year? I mean it was mediocre for him with yawnstipating wins, but it’s still top five for starters. That’s not really mediocre. Actually that’s not at all mediocre. Weird how The NY Media misinterprets things, right? Jeter might be the tenth best shortstop in the majors and you’d think he discovered a neverending box of Dunkin’ Donuts Munchkins™. While Johan throws 200+ Ks and a 2.53 ERA in 234.1 IP, and people are wondering if he’s lost it. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions: 18-9/3.10/1.06/240, Final Numbers: 16-7/2.53/1.15/206
6. Cole Hamels – Hamels was my preseason Cy Young pick; he might have had a chance with some more run support. He finished with the second best WHIP amongst Major League starters, top ten for ERA and 66th in run support. For some runs next year, maybe he can brushback his opponents and hope they do the same to Victorino. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions: 20-7/3.20/1.10/210, Final Numbers: 14-10/3.09/1.08/196
7. Brandon Webb – Another stellar year for Webb as he led the NL in Wins. Though Webb does go through long stretches where he’s nearly unusable. In fact, if you throw out April and July, Webb had a 3.86 ERA in ’08. That’s right; Webb’s “blah” with makeup on it, otherwise known as “pretty blah.” Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions: 19-7/3.10/1.20/190, Final Numbers: 22-7/3.30/1.20/183
8. Ervin Santana – Going into the 2008, Ervin was homeschooling for the better part of two years while making Wandy Rodriguez seem like a Road Scholar. Then 2008 came and Ervin myth busted his way to solid Home/Away Splits. Now if he can figure out what the deal is with Mentos and Diet Coke. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 16-7/3.49/1.12/214
9. Dan Haren – Post All-Star break numbers were once again, “Win a Date With a Tad Mediocre.” Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions: 17-9/3.60/1.20/210, Final Numbers: 16-8/3.33/1.13/206
10. Ryan Dempster – What ESPN said in February, “Dempster has little value as a starter…” What I said to ESPN, “Stop sending me your stupid magazine. I don’t read it.” What ESPN said, “It’s free.” What I said, “I still don’t want it and why are you calling me at 6 o’clock in the morning on a Saturday?” What ESPN said, “To tell you about ESPN Total Access Rewards!” What I said, “I don’t want ESPN Total Access Rewards.” What ESPN said, “In order to get the free magazine, you have to sign up for ESPN Total Access Rewards.” I said, “I hate you.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 17-6/2.96/1.21/187
11. Rich Harden – “They call me, Mr. Glass” ended up staying healthy and putting together a solid year. Just remember, he had a healthy year this year and still only pitched 148 innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 10-2/2.07/1.06/181
12. Ricky Nolasco – In 95.2 Post-All-Star break innings, Nolasco struckout 98 against 12 walks. I’ll put it another way. Nolasco walked twelve batters in fourteen games. Here’s that same information with numerals instead of words and exclamation points. Nolasco only walked 12 guys in 14 games!!! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 15-8/3.52/1.10/186
13. Mike Mussina – 1 ACROSS, Yankees Pitcher falls just short of 300 wins and won’t make the Hall of Fame. (FYI, Tommy John doesn’t fit.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 20-9/3.37/1.22/150
14. Derek Lowe – In 2007 and 2008, Lowe struckout 147 and gave up 194 hits both years. Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time in history a pitcher has given up exactly the same amount of hits and struckout the same amount two years in a row. Okay, they didn’t say that, but it sounds like something they would say. Here’s some more things Elias could’ve said around their office last week, “For the first time since July, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.” “For the third time in less than a week, our CEO called Jayson Stark a ‘pain in the ass,’” and “For the first and last time, John in Accounting ate Mexican for lunch.” Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140, Final Numbers: 14-11/3.24/1.13/147
15. Roy Oswalt – Grey’s 12-year-old cousin texted this in, “Chillax about Oswalt’s year end numbers lQQking like he continued his eversoslight steps backwards. In the 2nd half, he was DOMINANT. l8r…” Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions: 15-7/3.60/1.22/150, Final Numbers: 17-10/3.54/1.18/165
16. Ben Sheets – Somehow he went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Matter of fact, Kotchman went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Luckily, Furcal picked up the “Pulling a Kotchman” slack. Preseason Rank #32, Preseason Predictions: 60-Day DL, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.09I/1.15/158
17. Edinson Volquez – I told you to pick Volquez up on March 18th so you were forewarned. But I didn’t have the foreskin to predict quite how well he would perform. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 17-6/3.21/1.33/206
18. James Shields – The credo goes, third year starters (aka starters with 40 – 70 starts of Major League experience) are most likely to breakout. As far as credos go, that’s as good as any. I love Shields because he made good on the credo. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions: 14-6/3.75/1.10/185, Final Numbers: 14-8/3.56/1.15/160
19. Chad Billingsley – See Shields, James or one quarter of an inch above. I like Billingsley even more going forward, but there will be plenty of time in the offseason for me to extol (<–15th Century Word of the Day!). Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions: 16-7/3.20/1.30/190, Final Numbers: 16-10/3.14/1.34/201
20. Daisuke Matsuzaka – In the spirit of globalization, I had my Dice-K comments translated into Japanese then translated back to English for our Razzball readers. Here’s what I was left with, “Dice-K’s outlying numbers warned of impending tsunami. Luckily Red Sox bring Hello Kitty toaster and make bread of opponents. Sayonara.” Preseason Rank #23, Preseason Predictions: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200, Final Numbers: 18-3/2.90/1.32/154
Back in the pre-season, we launched a new player rater methodology called Point Shares to estimate fantasy baseball player value. There aren’t a lot of Player Raters to be found other than ESPN (Y! and CBSSports.com don’t have ones) but we feel ours is better because it factors in variables like a player’s position (e.g., Hanley Ramirez’s 33 HR is worth more than David Wright’s) and the point totals actually represent something.
A ‘point share’ is the estimated impact on a team’s points by substituting a player for the average drafted player at his position on a team filled with average players. So in a 10 team league, this team would otherwise earn 5.5 points per category (55 points). Substituting Cliff Lee for Zack Greinke on an average roster would mean an average of 6.6 points (6.40 for Cliff Lee, -0.24 for Greinke).
Our 2008 Player Rater that is based on a 10 team MLB league with 5×5 scoring. Only the top 50 are displayed below the post.
We will use this as the foundation for future articles but here are answers to some anticipated reactions:
1) How could pitchers be in the top 4 slots?
It might be surprising to see starting pitchers in the first 4 slots. This isn’t a flaw in the ratings- it’s a flaw in your thinking (sorry). The best pitchers in a season generally dominate 4 categories (W, K, ERA, WHIP). While they don’t contribute in Saves, there is little opportunity cost to this since saves are concentrated in 30-40 players and there are 90 pitching roster spots. For hitters, it’s rare for a player to be excellent across more than 3 categories and there’s a larger opportunity cost for the categories they are not great (i.e., OFs like Ichiro and Taveras hurt HR/RBI). Only 6 hitters in 2008 ranked above average across all 5 categories – Pujols, Wright, Berkman, Holliday, A-Rod, and Braun. Hanley Ramirez had a great year in Runs (125), HR (33), and SB (35) but was mildly valuable in AVG (.301 or .006 less than Ryan Theriot) and negative in RBI (67 or tied for 6th among SS). Converting Roy Halladay’s stats to an OF (W=R, HR=SO, RBI=WHIP, SB=SV, AVG=ERA) would net 119/34/121/10/.335. Sabathia, Lincecum, and Cliff Lee weren’t far off this. The reason why it’s usually not advisable to draft a pitcher in the 1st round is the unpredictability of who’ll be the top pitchers (none of the top 4 were top 50 picks based on MockDraftCentral’s Average Draft Position) vs. their true value. Here’s a more thorough explanation of a pitcher’s fantasy value.
2) Why are there are only 110 players that have positive value when there are 230 open roster spots?
In Point Shares, 0.0 represents an average player at their position. So it is expected that about 1/2 the eligible players are above average, 1/2 are below. A negative score doesn’t mean that a player isn’t worth having on your roster – it just means that he’s below average. If the system was built with 0.0 representing a roster-worthy player, the points would then represent the value of a player on a team in last place. This overestimates the value of a player when measuring the impact of a player swap (e.g., Lee for Greinke) for every instance except when a team actually did finish last. The best approximation of player value is starting from the middle.
3) What is the highest/lowest score possible?
Theoretically, the best possible score should be 4.5 pts in each category (moving someone from 5.5 to 10) or 22.5 for a 10 team league. Any other league size, just divide the team total by 2 and subtract 0.5 (12 team = 5.5). A simpler way of looking at it would be to consider how one would calculate the average value per team of a player with 50 SBs. For the team that’s 1st in SBs, his value is 0. For the 2nd team, it could be worth +1. Take this to its logical conclusion and you get (0+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9)/10. That’s 45/10 = 4.5.
While no hitting scores fall above 4.5 or below 4.5 (closest is Willy Taveras’s 4.3 in SB), the Point Shares system is just a model so it is conceivable that an extraordinary performance would net more than 4.5. The only cases in 2008 were extraordinary bad ERAs and WHIPs. (You’d think K-Rod’s 62 SV but that only netted +3.9).
Already went over the top 20 outfielders for 2008 (and the top 20 catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops for 2008), but outfielders (and starters) will need to go 40 deep to get the full picture. The lack of offense continues into the top forty outfielders (and will be seen in the reverse for top forty pitchers as it works in their favor). BTW, there was some slight confusion as to the rankings, I’m basing them on ESPN’s Player Rater. That’s why I can say I’d prefer Carlos Lee to Vlad, even though Lee is ranked by ESPN after him. I use the ESPN Player Rater so I have a neutral base, because I don’t think it’s fair for me to say I ranked B.J. Upton 10th in the preseason and now I conveniently rank him 10th again. No, I shouldn’t rank him again. Upton was ranked 10th in the preseason by me and ranked 21st by ESPN at the end of the year. Now whether you trust or agree with ESPN is a whole different matter. To further the discussion, Rudy will shortly be bringing his Point Shares to a computer screen near you for our final say on 2008 performances. Anyway, here’s the top 21 – 40 Outfielders for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:
21. B.J. Upton – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions: 100/30/85/.280/27, Final Numbers: 85/9/67/.273/40
22. Randy Winn – I’m pretty sure Winn was on waivers in some of my leagues and I ignored him. To my detriment? Perhaps, but a 10/25 season is nice from your 2nd basemen, not your 2nd outfielder. (This is what I mean by not agreeing with ESPN rankings.) Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 84/10/64/.306/25
23. Vladimir Guerrero – Vlad’s numbers are a pale imitation of his former glory and getting paler. Giving the nickname, “Vlad the Impaler,” a whole new meaning. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions: 105/32/125/.315/3, Final Numbers: 85/27/91/.303/5
24. Alfonso Soriano – When you consider he only played in 109 games, these are great numbers and right in line with his predictions. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (right here, in fact). A player that gets injured isn’t the worst thing for your fantasy team. If you were to have Soriano for all of his healthy games then, say, Elijah Dukes for all of Soriano’s injured games, you had great numbers at that position. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions: 115/35/75/.280/20, Final Numbers: 76/29/75/.280/19
25. Magglio Ordonez – …Whereas someone like Mags who gives you 561 at-bats and only 21 homers isn’t ideal. Maybe Vlad or Al-So can teach Mags how to give these stats in 150 less at-bats and then get injured. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions: 100/30/110/.300, Final Numbers: 72/21/103/.317
26. Carlos Lee – Another guy that would rank much higher if I were ranking them. Chuck Lee fought the power a bit less this year because of a fractured pinkie, but if you grabbed someone like, say, Ethier for the final month-plus while Lee was out, you had a very productive outfielder. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions: 90/35/120/.295/7, Final Numbers: 61/28/100/.314/4
27. Xavier Nady – Let’s look at what I said on April 7th, “…he’s starting the season on fire. Could he keep it going? …history tells us no. This won’t continue. Know what you can’t do? Let him sit on the waiver wire. Don’t drop Carlos Lee for him, but every year some players come out of nowhere.” And that’s me quoting me! You gotta also like how I told you not to drop Carlos Lee for him, cause I knew Lee would come in just above him in the year end rankings. Natch! Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 76/25/97/.305/2
28. Raul Ibanez – The following is a story of you and Raul Ibanez — You grabbed Ibanez early on when he hit five home runs in April, then dropped him in May when he hit 2 HRs, then briefly considered grabbing him in July when he hit 6 HRs then kicked yourself for not picking him up in August when he hit 7 HRs, then finally grabbed in September when he hit .233 with 1 HR. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 85/23/110/.293/2
29. Willy Taveras – Sixty-eight steals and sixty-four runs. One more time for those who think a hyphen is a minus sign. Taveras had 68 steals and only 64 runs. In-cred-ible or incredible. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 64/1/26/.251/68
30. Torii Hunter – While talking about Abreu, I mentioned the other day how an outfielder going 20/20 is the best way to go unnoticed by fantasy teams. Well, here’s another guy that is in MLB’s Witness Protection Program with season after season of 20/20. Too bad Ambiorix Burgos is a pitcher; he could use this sort of anonymity right about now. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions: 85/25/100/.275/20, Final Numbers: 85/21/78/.278/19
31. Corey Hart – Corey Hart took a dump on teams in September with zero home runs and a .173 average. Either the pennant race got the best of him or all his bad ball swinging. Probably a bit of both. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions: 95/22/75/.280/25, Final Numbers: 76/20/91/.268/23
32. Milton Bradley – He reached 400 at-bats for the first time since 2004 and, even more impressively, he had zero meltdowns (unless you count the time the Royal announcer had to lock himself in the booth to avoid Bradley attacking him, but since Bradley never got to him, we’ll give Bradley a pass). His healthy season showed that A) he is no longer a threat for 15 steals and B) he still misses close to 40 games even when healthy. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 78/22/77/.321/5
33. Curtis Granderson – I didn’t like him at all coming into this season. I felt like expectations were unreal. He turned out to prove me right and wrong. Right, because his final numbers were a letdown. Wrong, because he did take a step forward in walks and average against lefties. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions: 115/27/85/.280/25, Final Numbers: 112/22/66/.280/12
34. Andre Ethier – In the beginning of the year, The Pierre Situation™ infected the Dodgers’ outfield water supply to make it undrinkable. Luckily, Torre filtered Jones and Pierre so Ethier could run hot until his wife’s water broke in late September. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 90/20/77/.305/6
35. Mark DeRosa – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6
36. Jayson Werth – Did the Dogers give up too early on Werth or did they realize they had exactly the same player in Ethier? Both probably. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 73/24/67/.273/20
37. Alexei Ramirez – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13
38. Conor Jackson – Already went over Jackson in the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 87/12/75/.300/10
39. David DeJesus – I know your first inclination is to see DeJesus and think he was underrated, but “Blink,” you’re wrong. Sorry, Malcolm Gladwell. You were better off running hot waiver wire pickups out there every week than this schomhawk. A 12/11 in over 500 at-bats is not productive. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 70/12/73/.307/11
40. Hunter Pence – If he can get his steals up a bit, he might be able to snitch on the mafia and sneak his way into the MLB Witness Protection 20/20 Program. Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions: 95/22/75/.290/17, Final Numbers: 78/25/83/.269/11
On the Greek isle of Fantasia Baseballikis they have a proverb, “Never give up on a fantasy baseball player until he reaches full maturity and never spit in a woman’s face unless her mustache is on fire.” Let’s tackle the first half first, shall we? In 2008, Marakakis went 106/20/87/.306/10. These numbers won’t necessarily blow you away, until you realize in 2009 Markakis will only be 25 years old. Yes, he’s still ascending the escalator of Fantasy Baseball Worth. Hopefully he won’t get off until he reaches 2nd round value. His splits are promising. Against lefties, he hit .297, .310 vs. righties, .282/.330 Home/Away splits, almost even on Day/Night splits and .301 Pre-All-Star break and .313 Post. His 2nd half steals are a concern, as he stole only one base as opposed to nine steals in the first half. Maybe he only steals five next year, or maybe he steals 15. (Any player whose game is not steals can’t be relied on to ever steal more than 15.) The aspect of Markakis’s game that really needs to step up is his power. As of right now, I’d hope for 30 home runs, but wouldn’t expect more than 25 in 2009. So why am I suggesting you keep Markakis for 2009? His power is still developing and his walks are up. Throw in a five tools skill set and you have the makings of a great one. I am Sparkakis! As for the 2nd half of that aforementioned Greek proverb, it’s a good rule of thumb, but make sure you’re not spitting Ouza. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers to keep and not keep for next season:
KEEP
Alexei Ramirez – He’s a premenopausal Alfonso Soriano.
Hunter Pence – The dealer’s showing 25 HRs, 10 steals and a .275 average. That’s a push.
DON’T KEEP
Ryan Doumit – Doumit ranked #4 on the top 20 catcher list for 2008. You know what? He could come in number one next year, I still don’t think you should keep him. He’s not going to be overvalued at the drafts so you can get him back if you want and he’s injury-prone. Reggie Roby his ass.
David DeJesus – If he stays healthy, he could be Yunel Escobar. I’ll take one small bleh with a side order of bleh-bleh.
