Fantasy Baseball Advice

I liked Carlos Quentin going into spring of ’07. Whoa! You got the wrong year there, buddy? No, no I didn’t. I drafted Quentin in lots of leagues in ’07 because of his .940 OPS in the minors. He looked like the real deal. Had pizz-ower, spizz-eed and a good iz-eye. (If Jay-Z plays fantasy baseball, he’s so going to be searching Google for some pizz-ower and spizz-eed.) With a spot in Arizona’s outfield locked up, this guy, Quentin, was going to be a superstar. Then ’07 happened and Quentin was eating from a container of I Can’t Believe It’s Not Better. Then, this season, he finally started to live up to his promise… Wait, what is this? Carlos Quentin, This Is Your Life? You know the deal, he hit well this year. But now he has a fractured wrist. As long as he doesn’t have a setback in the post-season or off-season, I’m liking Quentin. This year was not a fluke. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for ’09:

Alexei Ramirez – Nothing for nothing, but he wasn’t supposed to be good. He’s about to be a Latin 27, but I’ve often remarked (I’m a remarker, ya’ll!) that he looks a bit like Alfonso Soriano. Just be careful about who you keep Alexei Ramirez over. Remember Angel Berroa won a Rookie of the Year with eerily similar numbers. (BTW, why can’t anything ever be eerily different?  Olbermann and O’Reilly are eerily different, right?)

Kevin Slowey – I try to stay away from keeping pitchers. In certain leagues or certain keeper teams, it’s unavoidable. Then there’s pitchers I actually want to keep; Kevin Slowey is one. This is the 2nd year in a row that Slowey’s trending in the right direction. Not only are his HRs coming down (literally — oofa!) but his Ks are going up. He used to be compared favorably to Radke, he may just pass those expectations. I will tout him more this winter, possibly building a Slowey shrine (from the scraps of my knocked-down Alex Gordon shrine).

Steven Pearce – On Tuesday, Pearce finally flashed some power for the Pirates that he’s shown plenty of in the minors. To burrow an Austrailian phrase, he can wombat with the best of them. (Yes, I meant to write burrow. It’s a pun, people!)

There’s so much to love about Fred Lewis. Let’s see… Power — check! Speed — check! A name that sounds like an 80s sitcom character — check! I’ll take Fred Lewis in the center square for the win. Alas, Fred Lewis is about to undergo season-ending surgery on a foot bunion. (The operating podiatrist hopes his patented Toe, Hairy and Curly procedure will one day be as recognized as Tommy John surgery.) I still like Lewis for next year, but this is this year, fool! So now it’s up to German Pantyhose to cover for Lewis’s bunions. Schierholtz had a sexy minor league OBP and power. NL-Only leagues and deep mixed leagues should be looking at Schierholtz, especially keeper leagues. There’s no reason why he can’t excel and there’s even less reason why the Giants don’t play him next year. Unless, of course, they sign Aurilla and Vizquel to four-year deals. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tom Gorzelanny – Left the game with an irritation in his middle finger. Pirates fans will happily give him their middle finger.

Scott Lewis – The Lewis without bunions threw 8 innings of shutout ball. He pitched well in the minors this year and I would take a flier in deep leagues. He gets the Twins next time out.

Eugenio Velez – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, including the 2nd day in a row that he knocked in the game-winning runs. He’s a 2nd baseman with speed that might now get a majority of the starts over Ochoa.

Brian Wilson – 2nd blown save in a row (that I predicted in the comments yesterday and the day before). He’s not going anywhere as the closer unless he’s hiding an injury, which I doubt.

Joel Hanrahan – Kazaam!

Brandon Lyon – In a sign of solidarity with his fellow Diamondbacks pitchers, he blew his own win. He did manage to lower his post All-Star break ERA to 10.91.

Taylor Teagarden – HR yesterday for his 4th in 24 at-bats. Right now, the Rangers seem like the Rockies of the late 90s. They could plug in Luis Castillo and get 30/100. Yet still suck. Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, Teagarden, they all homered yesterday and they all could homer tomorrow (or K three times). Recognize!

Kelly Shoppach – 2 HRs yesterday. I have Shoppach, Dioner and Doumit on three separate teams. One was an All-Star, one was hyped up and one backed up V-Mart. Guess which one is doing the best. Fantasy Baseball, this shizz is predictably unpredictable. Ya gotta love it.

Manny Ramirez – Nearly .400 while chipping in 14 HRs and 40 RBIs in 129 at-bats since joining the Dodgers. Good thing the Sawx got that albatross off from around their necks.

Ted Lilly – 8 IP, 1 ER. Wholly inconsistent and I wouldn’t want my fantasy baseball championship decided by this schmohawk, but you do what you do. He gets the Brewers next.

Kevin Slowey – 7 IP, 1 ER. Here’s a schmohawk I can get behind. He gets the Indians next.

James Parr – 6 IP, 0 ER and no relation to Jamie Farr. So far he’s thrown 12 innings of shutout ball. Maybe he’s just got hitters baffled because they haven’t seen him before. Deep leagues should be looking at him just in case he can keep it going. I have my doubts though.

Troy Percival – Left the game with back spasms. The Rays should just have Wheeler play 2nd when Percival pitches to save everyone time by doing a double switch. By his own admission, Percival will be out for a few days. I don’t think he said it in third person like Suede from Project Runway.

Felix Pie – Will see time down the stretch. Weird, cause I really thought Edmonds and Fukudome were doing a spot-on job.

Adam LaRoche – HR yesterday. He’s not only due, but he’s hot. Hot and due (yes, that does sound like a weird preggers porn) is a great combo to have in mid-September.

Kelly Johnson – 2 HRs yesterday. Against righties, he should be started on all teams. When he gets hot, he can put up very nice stats in a short period of time. He’s already hitting .486 in September. Get on that Johnson! (Um, huh?)

Cristian Guzman – 2 HRs yesterday. In other news, smoking is a healthy alternative to “just breathing.”

Pronk, a nickname for Travis Hafner which stands for Project Donkey, used to be cute, now it’s just stupid. Project Donkey? How about Project Jackass? When you drafted him, you wanted Josh Hamilton — Project Junkie — numbers. Not Project Flunky. David Eckstein, Project Spunky, is even better. Hafner looks like Project Monkey, which is a simian project that says 100 monkeys with a 100 bats can play pepper even if there’s a sign that says “No Pepper Games.” So, Hafner’s there, on your waivers, and you want some pop, what do you do hotshot? Do you pickup Hafner? No, you click Ignore. There’s lots of guys that are currently hot that you can use to plug-in for slumping hitters or injuries. If Hafner gets hot in a day or two, then grab him, but chances are he’s not going to be up to full speed until it’s too late. Maybe the Indians can send him to the Venezuelan Winter Leagues, so he can get hurt in November and then be ready for spring training. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Phillips – Broken right index finger and his season comes to a close. I’m going to go over preseason projections vs. end of the season numbers in the off-season (we will have posts here all winter!), but I wanted to look real quick at what I wrote back in January, “Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is ‘all in his head.’” Well, he wasn’t benched until August for the slump that was “all in his head,” but let’s look at Brandon Phillips’s final numbers: 79/21/77/.262/23. Now, if you were here in April, this is not a surprise to you, but when he got hot in the beginning of the year, I told you to trade Brandon Phillips. And that’s me quoting me, linking to me and quoting me again!

Paul Konerko – Sprained MCL — which is not the Razzball Commenters League that is coming right down to the wire. Will it be the upstart girl? The other white meat? A dark horse? Stay tuned! Or not! That’s on you. — Konerko’s probably done for the year. You have to find someone else to hit home runs on your bench.

Andre Ethier – 23 for his last 46. That’s .500 or “What will win the NL West, Alex?”

Josh Anderson – Schmohawk I mentioned in Friday’s fantasy baseball players to get post, he stole a base yesterday and he’s been leading off for the Braves.

Wade LeBlanc – 6 IP, 1 ER. Risky going forward, but anyone who pitches their home games in Petco is a potential ace. I’m pointing my oversized foam finger at you, Baek.

Warner Madrigal – Got the save. Just when you think you understand what the Rangers are doing, they go and do some dumb shizz. This move is perplexing because Frank Francisco probably was available. Let’s hope Warner got the save because the Rangers wanted to see how he looked rather than anything being wrong with Francisco. Warner Madrigal? What’s that, a German songbird?

Alfredo Aceves – 7 IP, 1 ER. It’s been a while since Yankees fans had anything to get excited about, but Aceves looks like he could have some late-September value.

Troy Glaus – Day-to-day with a strained right shoulder. Look elsewhere.

Chris Volstad – Came out of the game when he was hit by a grounder. He should make his next start.

Dontrelle Willis – Skinny CC Sabathia will make a start next Monday against the A’s. Here’s hoping they let him hit so he has some value for the Tigers.

Carlos Delgado – 3-for-3, 2 HRs. He looks like a non-Latin 35 again.

Jeremy Sowers – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks. He’s someone to look at down the stretch in your leagues.

Eugenio Velez – Perhaps driving in the winning run will earn him some playing time. Ivan Ochoa, the speedy schmohawk that did start, is oh-for-September. Those that have lost Phillips and/or Upton recently might want to keep an eye on Velez. (That’s if you have two good eyes. If you wear an eye patch, don’t waste your one good eye on Velez.)

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame in conjunction with Razzball.com, are electing the All-Star teams of the Fantasy Era. For every season from 1980 to today full 23 man rosters will be created and analyzed. We end the series today by looking at the 2004 through 2007 All Stars.

Year: 2004
First Time All Stars: 7 – Bobby Abreu, Adrian Beltre, Brad Lidge, Mark Loretta, Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, Michael Young
3 Time All Stars: 8 – Carlos Beltran, Eric Gagne, Vladimir Guerrero, Javy Lopez, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Mariano Rivera, Ichiro Suzuki
5 Time All Stars: 3 – Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling
10 Time All Stars: 3 – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Johnson, Pujols, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Santana, Schilling
Snubs: 4 – Melvin Mora (11.0), Todd Helton (10.6), Scott Rolen (10.5), Gary Sheffield (10.5)
16 Pt Season: 2 –Johnson (16.1), Santana (16.0)

This was a solid team whose success is built around one of the better pitching staffs that we’ve seen. The starting rotation is ranked 4th behind two wonderful seasons from Randy Johnson and Johan Santana, they each scored over 16 FBHOF points:

The rest of the staff each scored over 10 points each, with Ben Sheets being the best of the rest. While his win total was low at 12, his rate stats and strikeouts were excellent.

The relievers were vital as well. Brad Lidge, Eric Gagne, and Mariano Rivera struck out 337 batters between them and combined for an ERA of 2.01 and a WHIP of 0.97.

Offensively, the 2004 team is well below average, especially in the infield. Mark Loretta makes the team with FBHOF score well below respectability for All Star’s; his 8.9 value is the lowest mark since 1981 for a non-catcher.

After 14 all star appearances, this was Barry Bonds’ last team. He was very good again in 2004, drilling 45 HR and batting .362. Fellow legends Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling enjoyed their last great seasons along side him. Also worth mentioning are several other very good players who would never again make an All-Star team: Eric Gagne, Javy Lopez, Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Schmidt, and Miguel Tejada

On the other hand Michael Young and more importantly, Johan Santana, made their first All Star teams.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 19th
IF: 24th
OF: 18th
SP: 4th
RP: 6th
Overall: 10th

Year: 2005
First Time All Stars: 10 – Jason Bay, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Carpenter, Chone Figgins, Derrek Lee, Victor Martinez, Joe Nathan, David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Dontrelle Willis
3 Time All Stars: 5 – Manny Ramirez, Mariano Rivera, Gary Sheffield, Alfonso Soriano, Billy Wagner
5 Time All Stars: 4 – Vladimir Guerrero, Pedro Martinez, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez
10 Time All Stars: 2 –
Future FBHOF’ers: 1 – Roger Clemens
Snubs: 4 – Mark Teixeira (13.2), Carl Crawford (10.7), Andruw Jones (10.7), Bobby Abreu (10.5)
16 Pt Season: 1 – Alex Rodriguez (17.1)

The only good thing about the 2005 team was its infield. Every other position was ranked 17th or worse, but Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez, Michael Young, Derrek Lee, and Chone Figgins made up the highest scoring infield ever. Rodriguez, Pujols, and Lee averaged 45 home runs between them; Soriano went 30/30; Young batted .331; and Figgins stole 62 bases.

The outfield was particularly poor with a last place ranking. The names were fundamentally sound – Bay, Miguel Cabrera, Vlad, Manny, and Sheff but none had a stellar season, as only Ramirez reached the 13 point plateau.

Pitching was decent by current 2008 standards but gone were the days of the high 200 or 300 strikeout pitchers, and so gone were the days of 15 or more pitching point seasons.

Also of note was the snub of Mark Teixeira. He hit 43 HR and drove in 144 runners but couldn’t crack into the starting lineup.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 25th
IF: 1st
OF: 28th
SP: 17th
RP: 17th
Overall: 18th

Year: 2006
First Time All Stars: 12 – Bronson Arroyo, Garrett Atkins, Jermaine Dye, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, JJ Putz, Jose Reyes, Takashi Saito, Chase Utley, Brandon Webb
3 Time All Stars: 4 – Carlos Beltran, Derek Jeter, Johan Santana, Alfonso Soriano
5 Time All Stars: 2 – Vladimir Guerrero, Albert Pujols
10 Time All Stars: 1 –
Future FBHOF’ers: 2 – Guerrero, Pujols, Santana, John Smoltz
Snubs: 2 – Miguel Cabrera (11.4), Carlos Lee (11.3)
16 Pt Season: 1 – None

Unfortunately, the 2006 squad was very similar to the previous year’s version. Infielders were still the highest rated, but they dropped 9 slots in the standings as nobody picked up the slack of Alex Rodriguez and his 17.1 points in ’05.

The rest of the positions were about the same which results in an overall ranking of just 25th. When looking at the ’05 through ’07 period, an incredible total of 36 players made their all-star debuts.

Major League baseball was in the midst of a changing of the guard, from the all time fantasy greats of Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson (and more) over to the new age crew of Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Johan Santana and in 2007 Hanley Ramirez and David Wright. Time will tell if the youngsters will eventually create a new golden age of fantasy baseball. If 2008 is any indication, they likely will.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 20th
IF: 10th
OF: 27th
SP: 26th
RP: 11th
Overall: 25th

Year: 2007
First Time All Stars: 12 – Josh Beckett, Eric Byrnes, Prince Fielder, John Lackey, Carlos Lee, Russell Martin, Jake Peavy, Brandon Phillips, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, CC Sabathia, David Wright
3 Time All Stars: 4 – Joe Nathan, David Ortiz, Johan Santana, Ichiro Suzuki
5 Time All Stars: None
10 Time All Stars: 1 – Alex Rodriguez
Future FBHOF’ers: 2 – Rodriguez, Santana
Snubs: 1 – Chase Utley (10.1)
16 Pt Season: 1 – Alex Rodriguez (18.1)

I wasn’t planning a write-up on 2007 since it’s still considered a current event, but we should note the incredible season of Alex Rodriguez. There have been twenty four 50+ HR seasons during the fantasy era. Rodriguez is:

- One of six to bat .315 or better
- One of three accumulate 150 or more RBI
- One of two to score 140 or more runs
- The only person to get to 24 stolen bases.

It might be the most complete season by a player ever, fantasy or not.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 11th
IF: 4th
OF: 25th
SP: 12th
RP: 12th
Overall: 13th

Tommy John Surgery, “Hey, has anyone seen Billy Wagner’s arm?” All Pitcher Arms ignore Tommy John Surgery as they continue to read Men’s Fitness Magazine. Tommy John Surgery, “Well, it’s important he gets this message. His arm’s not going to get better without me.” Other Pitcher Arms whistle. Tommy John Surgery, “I will not be ignored!” Then Tommy John Surgery boiled Billy Wagner’s Arm’s Rabbit and followed his kid to a local carnival. Now it looks like Billy Wagner’s career is in danger. Ayala should continue to get the bulk of the saves, but always keep this in mind, Ayala is just not that good. Even in keeper leagues, drop Wagner. He’s no good to you anymore, Tommy John Surgery came calling. Next year, the Mets will probably look to make Francisco Rodriguez the highest paid closer in baseball. Hey, I wonder if Tommy John Surgery and K-Rod were working together? Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

B.J. Upton – Out until the weekend with a strained quad. A B.J. quad strain is blue balls, no?

Emmanuel Burriss – For those who just lost Upton. Burriss got a steal yesterday. He might get 3+ steals this week. In all of my H2H leagues, I’m currently starting him. He goes from the Diamondbacks to the Padres later in the week. I could steal against the Padres; I’m not fast. (UPDATE: He was injured yesterday and is no longer a replacement option for Upton.)

Jack Wilson – Might be out for the season with a hairline fracture in his right index finger. Before you throw in the towel because you’ve lost Jack Wilson, take comfort in knowing you don’t own him on any team.

Tim Lincecum – 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K and 126 pitches. I hope his innings/pitches this year don’t catch up to him next year. I do, because I think Lincecum could be special. With that said, why can’t these schmohawks limit him to 100 pitches when he’s up six runs? How much evidence do you need that high pitch counts lead to injuries? If you were making a run for the pennant, would you let him throw 180 pitches? Inconceivable!

Gary Sheffield – 2 HRs. Afterward Sheff said, “Sheff tried to hit the white off the baseball.”

Jon Lester – 7.2 IP, 9 Ks, 0 ER. Looks like Lester didn’t ask Make-A-Wish for just a no-hitter, but a whole season of productivity.

Jeremy Guthrie - Not pitching tomorrow because he has the “flu.” That’s short for he has a crapload of innings on his arm. If you’re still waiting around for him in leagues, I wouldn’t anymore.

Kevin Gregg – Will return on Tuesday and Fredi Gonzalez said he’ll continue to use Matt Lindstrom as the closer. Why? Because Gonzalez is in a H2H matchup and he owns Lindstrom, obviously.

Dave Bush – 8 IP, 2 ER. It’s only fitting that Bush comes right before Wood.

Brandon Wood – 2 HRs. I told you to pickup Brandon Wood on Friday, since then he has three HRs.

Yusmeiro Petit – 2 2/3 innings and 5 ER. And we might see Jobacum again after all. (Yes, Jobacum just came after Bush and Wood. And that’s how you make a triple-decker double entendre sandwich.)

Matt Antonelli – 1-for-21 since being called up. Don’t worry, Padres. You still have the future promise of Khalil Greene.

Albert Pujols – Said he’s considering Tommy John surgery in the offseason. Wasn’t Wagner enough for you, you monster?!