Fantasy Baseball Advice

Razzball is hosting this week’s Fantasy Roundtable. Well, last week’s but I’m tardy in posting it. Scroll to the end for my post. Feel free to add your story in the comments.

THE TOPIC: Which player(s) did you deliberately not draft on any of your teams because you thought they were overrated and your assessment proved correct?

Adam Ronis – Newsday
I don’t want to select an injured player, but of all the players that went in the first five rounds, the guy I clearly thought that was overrated and overvalued and wanted no part of was Eric Byrnes. You want to make the argument he was finally emerging into a solid player now that he was getting a chance to play everyday, maybe. But to draft him that early coming off a career year in a contract season I couldn’t fathom. He had 50 steals in 57 attempts last season, and his previous high was 25 in 28 attempts two years ago. Most people drafted him that early because of his stolen bases and I didn’t see 50 steals again. The hamstring injury played a role, but he wasn’t doing much before going on the disabled list. He was hitting .209 with six homers and 23 RBIs in 206 at-bats and was 4 of 8 on stolen bases attempts.

Back in March I believed the following players were being drafted too early: Brandon Phillips, B.J. Upton, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, Travis Hafner, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Pena, Robinson Cano, and most top starting pitchers…it is easy to cherry-pick though. But I am in five leagues and did not draft any of these players. I went with power/speed players I felt were safe in the early rounds, such as David Wright, Lance Berkman, Corey Hart, Russell Martin, and Carlos Lee.

Brett Greenfield – Fantasy Phenoms

Fantasy Phenoms did not advocate the selection of Ryan Howard in the first round. He is a three category player. He gives negative value in batting AVG and SB’s. He’s certainly lived up to that this season. Last year his contact rate was close to 60%, which was amongst the worst in the league. Of course he has value in fantasy leagues, but I could think of about 20 players that provide more overall value than he does.

Our Razzball player that we avoided in draft day was Barry Zito. He’s simply become the worst pitcher in baseball yet because of his name, gets drafted and rostered annually.

Mike Podhorzer – Fantasy Baseball Generals

I will never deliberately not draft a player because I think he’s overrated. Although I’ll assume I won’t end up with him, I’d still draft him if he falls to me in a straight draft or I could purchase him at my value in an auction. With that said, who did I consider overrated and have been right about?

Brad Penny- This one was obvious. Last year’s “brilliant” 1st half was simply the result of great fortune and his “poor” 2nd half was just regression. His 3.03 ERA was a mirage as his xERA was over 4 and he posted one of the worst skill sets of his career, with a career worst K/9 below 6 and BB/9 above 3. Penny should have thanked the luck gods for all the luck he received as he finished last year with a 77% strand rate and a ridiculously low 4% HR/F.

Rudy Gamble – Razzball

I said whatever you do stay away from Lance Berkman, Carlos Quentin, and Brandon Webb. Oh wait….I should look smart. Okay, here are the guys who were drafted in the top 75 that I had 20+ picks below their average draft position: Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Alexis Rios, Magglio Ordonez, Manny Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, BJ Upton, Travis Hafner, Justin Morneau, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Pena, Rafael Furcal, Chris B. Young, Ichiro, Ian Kinsler, Eric Byrnes, Derek Jeter, Brad Hawpe. There are definitely a few misfires in there (especially Kinsler) but I’d say my Point Share-driven approach proved pretty well in identifying some inflated values in the top rounds.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame in conjunction with Razzball.com, are electing the All-Star teams of the Fantasy Era. For every season from 1980 to today full 23 man rosters will be created and analyzed. In the second installment the 1995 through 1997 seasons are identified.

Year: 1995
First Time All Stars: 11 – Edgar Martinez, Jose Mesa, Mike Mussina, Hideo Nomo, Tim Salmon, Pete Schourek, Sammy Sosa, Mike Stanley, Jon Valentin, Mo Vaughn, Mark Wohlers
5 Time All Stars: 4 – Barry Bonds, David Cone, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Albert Belle, Craig Biggio, Bonds, Cone, Randy Johnson, Maddux, Mike Piazza, Sosa, Thomas,
Snubs: 2 – Chuck Knoblauch (11.9), Reggie Sanders (11.7)
16 Pt Season: 1 – Maddux (17.3)

1995 was the calm before the storm. This team was ranked 14th overall and the All-Stars would soon head into a stretch of four consecutive Top 10 teams, finishing with the best three of all time.

With the exception of relief pitching, all other positions were ranked between 8th and 16th making the team about average in total. For every Mike Piazza (12.6 FBHOF points) there seemed to be a Mike Stanley (5.9 FBHOF points) to counterbalance the team more towards mediocrity. Greg Maddux had an incredible year (17 FBHOF Points, 19 W, 0.81 WHIP, 1.63 ERA) but his All-Star teammate David Cone managed just 9.2 FBHOF points.

One important aspect of 1995 stands out though. Not only was Maddux great, but for the first time in the fantasy era there were two 16 point pitchers in the same year. Joining Maddux is #2 starter Randy Johnson who tossed 214 innings with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.48 ERA, winning 18 and striking out 294.

On offense, Albert Belle and Dante Bichette led the way with 15+ FBHOF point seasons and hitting 90 HR and 254 RBI combined.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 16th
IF: 12th
OF: 11th
SP: 8th
RP: 27th
Overall: 14th

Year: 1996
First Time All Stars: 11 – Kevin Brown, Ellis Burks, Ken Caminiti, Jeff Fassero, Pat Hentgen, Chipper Jones, Chuck Knoblauch, Robb Nen, Alex Rodriguez, Mel Rojas, John Smoltz
3 Time All Stars: 4 – Albert Belle, Dante Bichette, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Piazza
5 Time All Stars: 2 – Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Belle, Bonds, Brown, Griffey Jr, Jones, Maddux, Piazza, Rodriguez, Smoltz
Snubs: 3 – Brady Anderson (11.7), Gary Sheffield (11.6), Frank Thomas (11.5)
16 Pt Season: 2 – John Smoltz (16.8), Ellis Burks (16.2)

Due to the strength of their potent offense, the 1996 All Stars rank 7th overall. The infield was very good (7th) with only the 2nd catcher Ivan Rodriguez failing to score 10 FBHOF points. First Basemen Andres Galarraga hit 47 HR and drove in 150; Second Basemen Chuck Knoblauch batted .341 with 140 R; Third Basemen Ken Caminiti hit 40 HR; and future FBHOF’er Alex Rodriguez made his first All-Star appearance batting .358 with 141 R, 36 HR, 123 RBI, and 15 SB as the starting shortstop. Other FBHOF’ers making their first all star appearances were Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, and Kevin Brown.

Smoltz was the best player on the team with 16.8 FBHOF points after putting up career highs in Wins, WHIP, ERA, and strikeouts. Ellis Burks’ season was the best ever for a non Fantasy Baseball Hall of Famer, he went: .344 AVG, 142 R, 40 HR, 128 RBI, 32 SB for 16.2 FBHOF points.

The outfield, led by Burks, was stellar, finishing 5th overall. Barry Bonds had a 40/40 season and a .300 batting average; Albert Belle hit 48 HR and almost reached 150 RBI; Kenny Lofton stole 75 bases with 132 runs and a batting average well over .300; and Ken Griffey Jr. had one of his best years going 125 / 49 / 140.

Multiple time All Stars Bichette, Lofton, Hideo Nomo, Mo Vaughn made their last All Star appearances in 1996.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 12th
IF: 7th
OF: 5th
SP: 18th
RP: 18th
Overall: 7th

Year: 1997
First Time All Stars: 6 – Nomar Garciaparra, Darryl Kile, Pedro Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Jeff Shaw, Larry Walker
3 Time All Stars: 6 – Craig Biggio, Andres Galarraga, Ken Griffey Jr, Trevor Hoffman, Ivan Rodriguez, Randy Jonson
5 Time All Stars: 5 – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 14 – Jeff Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Griffey, Johnson, Chipper Jones, Maddux, Martinez, Piazza, Alex Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Thomas, Walker
Snubs: Vinny Castilla (11.2), Tino Martinez (10.2)
16 Pt Season: 2 – Larry Walker (19.4), Roger Clemens (16.2)

Never in the history of fantasy baseball has such a collection of talent been assembled. This team has it all:

.350+ AVG: Tony Gwynn, Mike Piazza, Larry Walker
50+ HR: Ken Griffey Jr
140+ R: Craig Biggio, Walker
140+ RBI: Andres Galarraga, Griffey
20+ W: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson
Sub-1.00 WHIP: Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez
Sub-2.00 ERA: Martinez
300+ K: Curt Schilling, Martinez
40+ S: Jeff Shaw

The only missing attribute was a preeminent base stealer, though six players did have 25 or more, capped off by Biggio’s 47.

This team was also second to none in terms of elite seasons. A record five players recorded FBHOF scores of 15 or better:

The crown jewel of the ’97 All Stars is Walker, who amassed more FBHOF points in a single season than any other batter in fantasy history. Walker was good enough to lead the league in On Base percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS, Total Bases, Home Runs, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits and several other Sabermetric minded stats like Offensive Winning Percentage and Adjusted Batting Runs. He was also Top-Three in Runs, Hits, Doubles, and RBI. It was an all around masterful season and I for one can’t wait to see how it stacks up against the greats of earlier decades (hint hint about future FBHOF developments).

Frank Thomas and Galarraga appeared on their last All Star roster and welcomed newcomers Nomar Garciaparra, Darryl Kile, Martinez, and Walker.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 2nd
IF: 14th
OF: 4th
SP: 1st
RP: 22nd
Overall: 1st

Already sporting 2 of the top 3 NL windmills in Krispie Young and Mark Reynolds, the D-Backs traded for #5 Adam Dunn.  Dunn will give you HR.  Dunn will give you OBP.  Everything else is ugly and it looks like the Reds just couldn’t take looking at it anymore. It’s as if he’s Moneyball on the rocks and everyone prefers to add some tonic or juice. This doesn’t do much for Dunn’s value.  He still has home games in a hitter’s park and it’s not like his HRs wouldn’t clear the walls in San Diego and SF. This move adds some offensive punch to the D-Backs lineup, but remember Dunn was never a huge RBI guy. Speaking of huge, there’s a hole in the Reds team now that Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, (or Jim Thome) could walk through. Hairston should benefit from the lineup spot vacancy and Patterson should get most starts in the outfield. But who will the Reds now judge burly against? Their lardstick has left the building. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Evan Longoria – Fractured wrist sends Longoria to the DL. Word around Wisteria Lane is the injury happened from bitch-slapping Nicolette Sheridan. It’s tough being the youngest and prettiest on the block… For the Rays, this is a tough 1-2 after losing Carl Crawford. It’s as if the world realizes something is amiss with the Rays winning and wants to put things back in order. Bad news for Longoria owners. There’s a chance the Rays rush him back for the pennant race, but there’s also a good chance he may not return this year in time to help anyone or he may return and not be the same hitter in the final month. Wrist injuries are often doom for hitters’ short-term production.

CJ Wilson – Done for the season. Guardado will remain the closer until he begins to look more like the real Guardado then Frank Francisco will take over. ETA for real Guardado? 3 days to one month.

Justin Verlander – 4.1 IP, 6 ER. Reports are saying he has a dead arm. That doesn’t mean he’s walking around like a zombie with his arm sticking out. It means Leyland had him throw 130 pitches last week then had him throw 4 days later. Luckily, a dead arm is not as bad as an injured arm. But it’s the first step.

Aaron Heilman – 3 ER, blowing the save. If Heilman’s got Jerry Manuel pulling out his hair, he might want to call Guiseppe Franco. When the best righty closer in your team’s 40+ year history is Armando Benitez, you’ve got to expect the worst. If you’re Double D’d with closers, you might want to punt this whole situation.

John Grabow – Save for Pittsburgh. Might be good for 5-7 more saves the rest of the way which will require 10-12 Tums.

Glen Perkins – Kudos to those of you who had the cajones to start the now 9-3 Perkins against the Yanks as he shut them out for 8 innings.  He’s not going to give you K’s or a great WHIP but he might be worth keeping an eye on for spot starts the rest of the way.

Carlos Lee – Had surgery on his pinkie. The operating doctor said, “It had been torn apart like a jigsaw puzzle that we put together.” Okay, but was it like a snow scene puzzle where there’s like 3000 white pieces or was it a dogs playing poker puzzle?

Shaun Marcum – 6 IP, 2 ER. He looks flat-out usable. (Which is, of course, below flat-out dominating and above flat-out awful.)

Nomar Garciaparra – Returns from the DL on Tuesday. Hopefully he doesn’t hurt anyone else reinjuring himself on Wednesday.

Hideki Matsui/Joba Chamberlain – Hideki’s running the bases and Joba’s set to throw on Friday. Everything’s all right in Yankee land, except for getting shutout by the aforementioned Glen Perkins. And batting Justin Christian lead off. And being 9 games behind the Rays. And being closer to the fourth place Jays than the second place Sox. And starting Sidney Ponson every fifth day. And starting Rasner. And relying on Xavier Nady. And still paying Carl Pavano. And thinking Ivan Rodriguez would really matter in the big picture. But other than those things, all is right in Yankee land.

Carlos Lee is hurt. Bad. He broke his left pinkie finger sending him to the DL. This also can’t be good for his Dr. Evil impersonation. Chances are he won’t be back this year. I’ve gone ahead and cut him in a 15-team league. Currently, my Carlos Lee replacement is Mike Cameron/Austin Kearns. Mike Cameron’s been hot and… I can’t even justify Austin Kearns, though he did hit a home run yesterday. This hurts everyone in the Astros lineup and their pitching staff, which will now receive even less run support. Too bad, because, with that Randy Wolf acquisition, they were really looking like legit contenders for fifth place in the Wild Card standings. Now the Braves might have their number. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carl Crawford – The other “Carl loss” is our good friend, Carl Crawford. Looks like it was a bad year to predict he would finally show some power. However, it was a good year for me to trade him for Ryan Braun about two months ago. Phew. The right hand injury that forced Carl Crawford to the DL could force him out of action for the rest of the season. I would not drop Crawford just yet, because he thinks he’ll be back in 15 days. We’ll see. This opens up a spot for Rocco Baldelli to get quickly injured, Cliff Floyd to throw a tantrum and Gabe Gross to pickup the pieces. Hopefully you have different options than the Rays.

Chris Carpenter – Right triceps strain. At the best, gone for a start. At the worst, gone ’til March. You shouldn’t have been counting on Carpenter for much anyway.

Brad Lidge – Complaining of a sluggish shoulder. Hopefully no one puts salt on it. (Get it? Cause if you put salt on a slug…Oh, forget it.) Ryan Madson got the save yesterday. Chad Durbin got the save on Saturday. Probably will be some combination of the two (or even JC Romero, if the matchup is right) that will fill-in for Lidge. If this doesn’t turn into a 15-day DL stint for Lidge, I’d be shocked. If the Phillies push him through, it could turn into a “Lidge hopes to be ready for spring training”-type deal.

Orlando Hudson – Will need season-ending surgery to fix a dislocated wrist. If you were counting on O-Dog for anything, you have bigger fish to fry. This boosts Conor Jackson’s value a bit because he’ll be inserted into the three hole on a regular basis. Looks like Upton will have to find someone else to carry him around.

Aaron Harang – 4 IP, 8 ER. Good to see him pickup right where he left off.

Scott Rolen – Placed on the DL with a sore shoulder that has caused him problems in the past. Unless you’re in a league that only used aging vets that are drafted on name recognition alone, you probably didn’t have Rolen anyway. And, if you’re in a league like that, grab Aurilla. He’ll suit you just fine.

Cliff Lee – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 K. The C. Lee that didn’t break any hearts this weekend.

Mike Hampton - 4 IP, 6 ER. After the game, he didn’t say, but should have said, “I sucked, but that shouldn’t surprise you.”

Todd Helton – If you just read his name and said to yourself, “Oh, wow! I totally forgot Todd Helton existed.” You’re not alone. Helton had a minor setback and now might not return this season.

Carlos Quentin – HR yesterday. 10th since the All-Star Break. Making a strong case for AL MVP and being pretty overvalued next year.

Manny Parra – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats. Ah, to pitch against the Nats, if only you weren’t followed by Backne. Parra, “Hey, Billingsley, I saw Kuo blew your lead–” “Actually, Alyssa Milano is blowing my lead right now.”

Fernando Rodney – Got the save yesterday, but the Tigers made it a five run game in the bottom of the 8th so it wasn’t a traditional save. As to who would get the ball in a traditional save opportunity, whoever Leyland wants to point his yellow-stained finger towards. My guess is Rodney, Zumaya and Farnsworth, in that order.

Huston Street – Not sure how far down the depth chart Street’s fallen? He entered the 5th inning  yesterday and gave up 3 runs. Joey Devine might get a save before Street. (BTW, Street only had 18 saves in three quarters of the season. You gotta ask yourself how badly do you want those other five saves he might get.)

Lastings Milledge – Hit another HR yesterday. Has 5 HRs in the last ten games. Might give Mike Cameron a run for the least owned 20/20 man in the history of fantasy baseball.

Emilio Bonifacio – 0-for-6 and nary a hit all weekend. I’m giving him until the end of the week and then will reevaluate. To try and jumpstart Bonifacio, I’m wearing a rally merkin (Weird Thing of the Day) on my head.

It has been a while since we made some additions to our Razzball Glossary.  Thanks to everyone for their suggestions either in the Comments section or in the Forums.

Keep up the suggestions!

Charbonooooo! - A night or a season where your team starts off great but goes completely downhill from there. Named after Indian Joe Charboneau who had a great rookie year but did nothing after that.

Double D’d- Being stacked in one position. It’s a nice luxury to have, but usually requires a reduction to compensate for other weaknesses. E.g., I was Double D’d at 1B, but had to downsize to fix up my busted staff. (assist to BSUJam)

Jokey Smurf’d – When you receive a gift-wrapped package in a trade only for it explode in your face because of injury or a player’s poor performance.  See video for further explanation (as if any is necessary).  Example:  He gift-wrapped Aaron Harang to me for two crappy players but it looks like I got Jokey Smurf’d.  (assist to mikeisalegend)

Nattie Lights – Watered down talents that are better than nothing and can be had on the cheap – e.g, V-Mart is out and all the top-shelf catchers are gone. I’m going to pick up a Nattie Light like Jesus Flores and hope it gets me drunk… (assist to lincecumshot)

Scott Downs’ Syndrome – Successful late inning reliever whose progress is retarded by other bullpen mates.  After Scott Downs who has had a sub 2.00 ERA for the Jays from 2007-2008.  (full credit to Denys)

Tied To The WHIPping Post – When a pitcher’s defense tortures him with errors leading to a final stat line that’s ok on ERA but horrid on WHIP – e.g., “Man! Ponson tied me to the WHIPping post last night. 1.50 ERA but a 2.50 WHIP! Why is Jeter still playing shortstop?” (co-credits to Denys and Hebrew Hammer)

Weepstakes – Any popular waivers pick up that doesn’t live up to expectations eventually making you cry for wasting a top waiver pick on them. See Cueto, Scherzer, Kershaw, etc.  Example:  I won the Eugenio Velez weepstakes. Netted me a .125 average and .5 steals. Fun times! (full credit to Denys)