Fantasy Baseball Advice

That title there, that’s country speak. This here boy, Adam Dunn, he’s country strong and this, folks, this is the 2nd half of the baseball season. Let’s git ‘r Dunn! Since July 6th, Adam Dunn has 6 hits in the last 8 games. Guess how many of those were home runs. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *scratches head, picks ear, adjusts macksack* 6 of 6 were home runs. My man’s predictable. In. The. Best. Way. Possible. Yesterday, I went over how precious time is from now until the end of the season. (I’m not talking precious like making sure you go see your kids play soccer or some shizz.) If you need home runs, there are so few guys that could put up 20 home runs in the 2nd half. Dunn is one. Now will Dunn’s average make you long for the days of Tony Pena Jr.? Maybe. But a funny thing happened on the way to the end of last season. Dunn hit .273 post-All-Star Break. Zoinks! Say what, karaoke? You heard me. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joe Blanton – This is a lot better move for real baseball than it is for fantasy baseball. I’d throw a few dollars towards him in an NL-only waiver claim or I’d use a mid-level waiver claim. Yes, this is coming from the guy who preaches you should use your waiver claim fast and furious. Why do I say only a mid-level claim for Joe Blah? Cause I don’t really want him in any league, even in an NL-only league.

Chris Iannetta – 2-run HR. I keep getting questions in the comments or the forum about this guy. Grey, should I go with Pudge over Iannetta cuz, like, he has a starting job? Doooode, if you’re forced to have Pudge on your team, you should hope he loses the starting job. Iannetta has 10 HRs in a timeshare. You won’t take 3 or 4 good days a week instead of 6 crappy ones? Not to mention, Iannetta’s going to be getting more and more time in front of Torrealba.

Adam LaRoche – He’s at .415 for the month. If you picked him up today, you care what his April was like? That was rhetorical.

David Wright – Jerry Manuel did such great work to get Wright to hit a HR today. That was sarcastic.

Johan Santana – Tagged for 5 ER in 4 IP. After the game, he was seen dialing up his old friend, Kyle Lohse, for advice.

Marcus Thames – Hit his 18th HR in like 15 at-bats or something. I think if Thames and Dunn were in the home run derby we’d see 50 HRs and our first strikeout.

Francisco Cordero – Gave up 4 ER, 6 hits in 1/3 of an inning. I just traded him in one league with Fuentes for Ellsbury. Now I know how Tina Turner felt when Ike died. Phew.

Edwin Encarnacion – HR yesterday. I was going to put Double E on my top 100 for the 2nd half. Besides him having a good post-All-Star break last year, I couldn’t find a way to justify it. Encarnacion could be solid again, but my faith left the building.

Troy Glaus – 2 HRs. Glaus is another one that almost made the list. I pardon you. Glaus has been torrid of late. If a guy is hot for one month after the All-Star break, then you drop him for some other hot schmohawk in Augtember, you’ll be doing fine. Cust kayin’.

Kyle Lohse – 2 ER in 7 IP and Lohse moved to 12-2. Lohse says he owes it all to a chimpanzee named Ed, who turned out to be a best friend and a hirsute matchmaker of hilarious proportions. With Lohse and the chimp’s help, the Cards just might win the pennant!

Jake Peavy – Gave up four HRs and lost to Lohse. After the game, Peavy said, “I gotta get me a chimp.”

The All-Star Break is over and we’re officially trucking towards your fantasy baseball trade deadline. So what should we do? Look back, of course. Through June 10th, Chase Utley led the major leagues with 21 HRs. Berkman was second with 19. Uggla had 18. Josh Hamilton, blowing the cover off the ball and not the blow off the mirror, had 70 RBIs. Adrian Gonzalez was 2nd with 57 RBIs, then the UtBerkmanley hybrid tied with 56.  For runs, Berkman held off the competish at 61, then Kinsler and Hanley at 55 and 54 respectively. Ellsbury sped out in front with 28 steals. Then Ichiro had 26 and JuanBourn tied for 24. (BTW, JuanBourn is officially the best name for a Hispanic family’s first son.) On the pitching side of things, Edinson Volquez led with Ks at 96, then Sabathia at 87 and Beckettcum at 83. (Harang at 82!) Webb had 11 wins and Cliff Lee had 10. Finally, K-Rod blew away the rest of the closers with 26 saves. Then Sherrill 21 and the BrianWoodbon triumvirate (Word of the Day) each had 18.

Awesome, Grey, you picked a random day of the season and compiled stats. What did everyone do on August 3rd of 1983? Actually, it’s not a random day. June 10th is approximately 67 games into the season. From today until the end of the 2008 season, guess how many games are left? The blind man picked up the hammer and saw. Now to say hitters and pitchers will do the same in the last 67 games as they did in the first 67 is obviously false. Some players are/were injured; some players always hit/pitch better in the 1st/2nd half and some players will sit after their club clinches/is eliminated. But I don’t think this makes my argument false as much as it reinforces the dire circumstances we are facing as fantasy baseball team owners. It’s now or never, people!

It’s time to start making some hard choices. Albert Pujols sure does dress like a world-class hitter, but if you need steals and saves, he’s not helping you. Though Lidge and Brian Roberts might. The inverse is also true, if you have Lidge, Marte, Broxton and Gregg, trade two of them for a part that could help. Most pitchers will see about 14 to 16 starts from now until the end. Most closers will be lucky to tag 17 saves onto their totals. The best hitters will be lucky to get 40/15/45 and 15 steals.  Trade deadlines are going to be right around the corner. Once trade deadlines pass, you’ll be left with nothing, but free agent pickups. In deep leagues, this can spell doom. (Dee oh oh em, by the way.) When your trade deadline passes, how can you make up ground in saves if you don’t have the closers? Only so many new closers will comes into the league in September. Where are you getting steals from in September? Home runs? You need to make moves now. If no one will give the parts you need, you may have to overpay. It’s not a crime to trade Pujols for Krispie, Marte and Dye if it gets you the championship. It’s crime to get a ten in average and a one in Ks, if it costs you your league. Leave nothing on the table. I want everyone who is reading this to win their league. You can’t win your league because you held onto Lidge when he could’ve got you a necessary piece and the title. It’s now or never, people! Make it count.

Things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Hanley Ramirez number one on the top 100 list for the second half of 2008 and he could get injured tomorrow. Or Alex Rodriguez could announce he’s skipping out on all August games to join Madonna on tour for the remake of the Madonna: Truth or Dare movie with Arod playing the part of Warren Beatty. This list may not be relevant two weeks for now. Or it may be completely correct in two months and you’ll want to join the Church of Grey. There’s no membership fees. Sin all you want. Just don’t trade for Ryan Zimmerman. This list is NOT (Caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take the first half and combine it with the 2nd half of their season. This is simply a list of the top hundred fantasy baseball players if you were to pick them up on the first day of the 2nd half. So while Kouzmanoff did not have a solid first half, he will appear on this list because I like him more for the 2nd half. Anyway, here’s the top 100 for fantasy baseball for the 2nd half. (Also, download Rudy Gamble’s 2nd half fantasy baseball projections for 2008.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – I’d trade my left nut for Arod. In fact, to prove a point, I just did. Are you happy? I’m one-nutted now. You’re welcome.
2. Hanley Ramirez – And there goes my right nut. Now I’m a woman.
3. Jose Reyes – To answer the Bee Gees, my love goes deep, especially for Reyes. He’s on pace for 135/18/70/.300/60. I think he exceeds those steals numbers, which means he does better in the 2nd half.
4. Chase Utley – My only regret this season is not having him on one team. I thought he should go 7th in the beginning of the year and I just never had the right pick.
5. David Wright – His average usually picks up in the 2nd half and he fills every category.
6. Matt Holliday – Think he can chip in ten steals while hitting twenty home runs in the 2nd half. Oh, and a .330 average.
7. Albert Pujols – I’m starting to feel like he’s overrated. .340/17/45 is solid for the 2nd half, but he’s that much better than Teixiera?
8. Lance Berkman – I think he slows down a bit as the season wears on and when he realizes he’s doing it all for nothing. Making the season count out of nothing at all…
9. Johan Santana – No reason why he can’t win 12 games in the second half, even though he only won 8 in the first. Recognize!
10. Ryan Braun – 17/10 in the 2nd half as the Hebrew Hammer does work at the plate on every day but Yom Kippur (<—-forced!).
11. Ryan Howard – Gets to 50/150. You take that with a .250 average and you like it.
12. Prince Fielder – Hey, why do my Tofutti Cuties taste like hamburger? *Yost smiles devilishly*
13. Miguel Cabrera – As I have said before, he’ll have the same numbers at the end of the year he always has.
14. Mark Teixeira – PABST, Post-All-Star Break Stud Teixeira.
15. Grady Sizemore – 15/15/.270 Tastes like Rollins with more power.
16. Jimmy Rollins – Tastes like Sizemore with more steals.
17. Josh Hamilton – First one I don’t feel completely comfortable with, but after his first half I couldn’t drop him any further.
18. Carl Crawford – Strong 2nd half last year. A force in steals, runs and average.
19. Jake Peavy – If the DL-stint this year didn’t worry me, he’d be sitting in first class with Santana.
20. Brandon Webb – His 2nd half last year was insane. I wouldn’t bank on any player to be the same this year as they were last year. It’s not how things work, but I still think he can be excellent.
21. Carlos Lee – Lisa Gray, who’s funny for a broad, calls him Clank Lee. (A funny girl who knows baseball? You schmohawks should be combing your hair just reading that.)
22. Ichiro Suzuki – I don’t know why I can’t get behind Ichiro. I love sushi. Love! I once dated a Japanese girl, which turned out miserably, but other than my current girlfriend, they all end badly, right? I mean, at some point in every relationship you gotta say, “The sound of your breathing irritates me. Let’s breakup.”
23. Ian Kinsler – He can actually build on his 1st half power, but his average will probably come down.
24. Nick Markakis – On the last day of the season, when Markakis reaches 110/30/110/.315/20, there will be a party at my house called, “My Girlfriend Gets Me Back On The Final Day Of The Season If I Still Have A Girlfriend By Then” Party. Hopefully she gets us a stripper.
25. Brandon Phillips – Every single time I rank him, I always want to drop him further, except if I’m ranking overrated players. For some reason, Phillips always makes me feel like this reporter.
26. CC Sabathia – I almost moved him above Peavy, that’s how much I like him in the 2nd half.
27. Vladimir Guerrero – Almost 40 points below his career average, I think he gets much closer to it, which would make for a very hot 2nd half.
28. Carlos Beltran – My placement of so many Mets in the top 30 shows I obviously think they’re going to continue their winning ways. I’m not exactly a fan of Willie Randolph, but it’s a shame that Manual will get credit for the Mets’ resurgence. They are just playing how they should’ve been the whole time, which, in this case, is very good.
29. Aramis Ramirez - I’m still a fan even though I feel like the first half of the year he was giving his owners a dutch pantry. (The first entry, of course. BTW, why is Dutch an adjective that equals kinky shizz dealing with farts? Or you “can go Dutch?” Which is splitting a check. Don’t try and figure this out. You’ll just waste precious man hours.)
30. Justin Morneau – I just went over why I like Morneau.
31. Garrett Atkins – The last two seasons’ second halves have been tremendous. I kinda wanted to push him into the top 30, but his HRs just haven’t been high enough.
32. Chipper Jones – What’s left on the Braves’s season? 67 games. Chipper makes a run at 40 of them, but not a run at .400.
33. Derrek Lee – Mostly a yawn after April. Swapping him for Howard would’ve been the move. But you didn’t do that, did you?
34. B.J. Upton – And, unlike Brandon Phillips, I always wanna move Upton, um, up. Maybe because his initials are BJ. I gotta call my shrink and tell her I’m making progress!
35. Nate McLouth – Tastes like Sizemore but much riskier.
36. Alfonso Soriano – I hope this is the year of the Cubs just so I don’t have to hear how this is the year for the Cubs every year. BTW, Soriano is this low because he has an injured hand. I wouldn’t want to mortgage the farm on a hitter with an injured hand. But he has shown great resiliency in the past so he could be a bargain.
37. Robinson Cano – I’m drunk on my love for Cano. Leave me alone.
38. Adrian Gonzalez – I don’t think he gets above 35 HRs. He’s at 22 HRs. You do the math!
39. Jacoby Ellsbury – 5/30 with a kagillion runs is great. Hopefully his average doesn’t continue to dip.
40. Corey Hart – Just a bit off of Sizemore in terms of production and “getting ladies,” which I guess could be consider production, as well.
41. Josh Beckett – Only a few pitchers moved up in the top 100 from where they appeared in the March top 100.
42. Curtis Granderson – He’s one of the few players that I disliked in March that I actually like more now. Primarily because of his ’07 post-All-Star Break numbers.
43. Cole Hamels – Few pitchers give you 8 Ks even when they have an off game.
44. Bobby Abreu – 10/10 with a chance for a pile of runs and RBIs.
45. Matt Kemp – Power has come on, his Ks are a bit worrisome, but I’m finally buying.
46. Carlos Pena – For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one. I actually like Pena more now than in the beginning of the season. Partly because he can’t have a much worse half than his 1st.
47. Adam Dunn – Here’s another post-All-Star Break twenty home run possibility.
48. Manny Ramirez – The season is long and Manny’s attention span is short. This is the time of year I don’t want Manny.
49. Dan Uggla – If he only hits 10 HRs in the 2nd half with a .240 average, you’ll wish you had Yunel.
50. Roy Halladay – Halladay looks like he’s everything he used to be, but hadn’t been for the past two years. If that makes sense.
51. Jason Bay – I wanted to drop him even further, but when someone’s on pace for 36/10 with respectable peripherals you just can’t do it.
52. Torii Hunter – He’s one hot streak away from a 17/10 2nd half.
53. Carlos Zambrano – One of the few pitchers that’s at even odds for ten wins after the Break.
54. Brian Roberts – Bad three year Post-All-Star Break average and he slows down in the 2nd half.
55. Magglio Ordonez – I don’t feel good about his placement in the rankings because of the injury, but he should be back right after the All-Star Break.
56. Carlos Quentin – I’m worried the average keeps falling, that’s why he’s ranked this low. If you, ya know, were wondering.
57. Michael Young – Two shots of solid, one shot of steady and absolutely no excitement.
58. Shane Victorino – I feel like The Flying Hawaiian is not getting his due. His pace 110/9/55/.280/40. To think some people dropped him in the beginning of the season. Or traded him to Rudy for Matt Capps.
59. John Lackey – Yes, I’m a fetishist for NL pitchers, but I likey Lackey. The problem is the injury in the beginning of the year and his last two starts.
60. Dan Haren – His 2nd half troubles last year are well-documented, I won’t tack on more of the same.
61. Pat Burrell – One of the few players who I would double their stats to this point and say that’s close to what you’re going to get on the season.
62. Brian McCann – Putting up Victor Martinez numbers while V-Mart puts up Jason Kendall numbers. Weird!
63. Geovany Soto – For the search term “Geovany,” this guy used to be on the first page of Google. Nice hat!
64. Justin Verlander – As we said the other day, “Since June 1, 8 starts, 5 Wins, 55 IP, 52 Ks, ERA/WHIP in the 2.70/1.10 area.” And that’s me quoting us!
65. Joe Nathan – Current number one closer in my book. But my book is titled, “I’d Never Draft A Number One Closer.”
66. Jonathan Papelbon – Should be trading these closers sooner rather than later, if you have holes elsewhere.
67. Francisco Rodriguez - Just because he closed 38 games in the 1st half doesn’t mean he reaches 55.
68. Mariano Rivera – And the closer run ends.
69. Tim Lincecum – Innings will begin to pileup and the Giants (if they have any sense in their collective heads) will limit Lincecum in the 2nd half.
70. Kevin Kouzmanoff – So far he’s hit .293 in July. Last year in the 2nd half, he hit .317 with 11 HRs. Maybe this is his thing.
71. Brad Lidge – His Ks can actually make a difference.
72. Chone Figgins – There’s very few players on this list that can impact one category like a healthy Figgins.
73. Derek Jeter – If Jeter starts dating Arod’s ex-wife, I’ll draft him in the first round next year, until that time…
74. Ervin Santana – A decent bet to get to 20 wins and possibly 200 Ks. He’s only ranked this low because he’s never done any of this before.
75. Adrian Beltre – In past years, even when he wasn’t good in the 1st half, he’s been solid in the 2nd half.
76. Mike Jacobs – See no reason why he can’t go .260/15/40 which could be better than Adrian Gonzalez. Cust kayin’.
77. Evan Longoria – Hey, Alex Gordon, this is how you don’t let people down.
78. Chris B. Young – I tried to do these rankings for the most part without looking at my top 100 from March. But I peeked in at where I ranked Krispie. In the 90s. So not only did Krispie have an awful 1st half, but he jumped 12 spots up. He’s failing upwards! Well, this is another sign that these rankings are really trying to look forward instead of look back. I don’t like a lot about Krispie, but his splits last year leaned towards the 2nd half of the year and really all we care about is the 2nd half.
79. Alexis Rios – I hope he finishes strong just so I can stop the hate mail over the winter.
80. Troy Tulowitzki – There’s really nothing that points to Tulo being placed this high. He started off miserably, got hurt, came back with limited results then hurt himself again. So why is he ranked here for the 2nd half? Because if I had to choose between Carlos Guillen and a healthy Tulo, I’d try my hand at Tulo.
81. Carlos Guillen – I’m not a huge fan of Guillen to begin with and his 2nd half last season wasn’t good.
82. Jhonny Peralta – Second to only Hanley and Michael Young for shortstop HRs and RBIs respectively.
83. Chad Billingsley – I believesley.
84. Ben Sheets – I kinda wanted to drop him off the list because of injury history and last year’s 2nd half.
85. Russell Martin – I suppose a catcher going 7/7 excites some.
86. David Ortiz – Papi will hold his best for the playoffs and the Sox will be fine with it.
87. Milton Bradley – It’s just a matter of keeping the injuries in check. The talent was always there.
88. James Shields – Notice who he’s ranked just in front of. The significance is deafening.
89. Scott Kazmir – I put him right after Shields to magnify who I like better. Shields. Dur.
90. Jason Giambi – Stumbled a bit into the All-Star Break, but he can have a ten home run month and pile on the RBIs
91. Paul Konerko – Three year post-All-Star Break average is 16/44/.297.
92. Jeff Francoeur – What, you can root for Hamilton to turn his life around, but you can’t root for Frenchy to turn around his season?
93. Alex Gordon – If he can turn it on this 2nd half like he did last year, he’s worth this spot. If he doesn’t, he further infuriates me. You’ve been warned, Gordon!
94. Hunter Pence – Can be a 15/10 guy in the 2nd half. (I’m not sure I believe that myself, but he can go 15/10. Nope, still don’t believe it.)
95. Miguel Tejada – I considered leaving him off and he seems like he won’t be anything but a higher profile name putting up Kelly Johnson-type numbers.
96. Rickie Weeks – Throw him in Krispie’s sidecar as someone who doesn’t deserve to be on the list, but what he can do makes him impossible to leave off. Actually, I could’ve left him off but I didn’t.
97. Mike Lowell – He’s Puerto Rican and only 34. I always find that curious. Anyway, carry on.
98. Kevin Youkilis – I know he has a history of 2nd half swooning, but he wasn’t even good in June and July last year and he has been this year. I’m going to go out on a wild limb here and say he wins the AL MVP with numbers like 115/30/125/.320/5.
99. Edinson Volquez – When rookie pitchers start to accumulate too many innings, struggles turn to rotation spots being skipped. Then again, Management, “Dusty, you need to limit Edinson’s innings.” Cut to: Dusty’s blank stare.
100. Joey Votto – More valuable than Bruce.
101. Erik Bedard – Because no top 100 list is complete without a 101. Liked Bedard coming into the season. Do not like him at all in the 2nd half. His return is a question mark and he may be shutdown come September. He’s on this list because I wanted to say how much I didn’t like him.  “Yo, Point, where you going?” “Home.” “Jump in, I’ll drive you.”
102. Cliff Lee – I didn’t forget him. I just wanted to.
103. Carlos Gomez/Willy Taveras/SAGNOF – If you need steals, you overpay for them. Why? Because it’s now or never.
104. Jonathan Broxton/Damaso Marte/SAGNOF – If you need saves, you… See right above.
105. Whatever Player Gets You The Championship – It’s now or never, people. I cannot stress this enough. Actually, I can and will post about this tomorrow.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame in conjunction with Razzball.com, are electing the All-Star teams of the Fantasy Era. For every season from 1980 to today full 23 man rosters will be created and analyzed. In the second installment the 1986 through1988seasons are identified.

Year: 1986
First Time All Stars: 15(!) – Jesse Barfield, George Bell, Joe Carter, Roger Clemens, Eric Davis, Jody Davis, Gary Gaetti, Mike Krukow, Roger McDowell, Kirby Puckett
, Dave Righetti, Steve Sax, Mike Scott, Mike Witt, Todd Worrell
3 Time All Stars: 3 – Don Mattingly, Mike Schmidt, Fernando Valenzuela
5 Time All Stars: 3 – Gary Carter, Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken
10 Time All Stars: N/A
Future FBHOF’ers: 7 – Clemens, Henderson, Mattingly, Puckett, Ripken, Schmidt, Fernando Valenzuela
Snubs: Tim Raines (11.4), Von Hayes (11.3), Jim Rice (11.0), Tony Gwynn (10.9)
16 Pt Season: Mike Scott (17.3)

An incredible 15 first time all stars made the 1986 team. The vacuum was in part created by several greats that made their last All Star appearance on the 1985 team. While still productive, both Tim Raines and Dwight Gooden were never considered elite again. Eddie Murray, who would improbably make the 1990 All Stars, started a 4-year period of less than spectacular play and new blood in the likes of Don Mattingly emerged as the best first basemen.

1986 was also the final year of Gary Carter’s seven year reign as the best fantasy catcher in game. Between 1987 and 1992 following Carter’s departure, nine different catchers would make All-Star appearances.

This churn resulted in a less than spectacular team, one that finished just 19th of the 28 teams we are to investigate. But it was the first year future Fantasy Baseball Hall of Famer’s Kirby Puckett and Roger Clemens made the all-stars. Fan admired Eric Davis would also make this team, stealing 80 bases and hitting 27 home runs. Clemens was the key All Star rookie however, as he would go on to become an inner circle FBHOF’er and record more FBHOF points than any other pitcher in fantasy history. While not considered a true rookie, 1986 was the first year Clemens made 30 or more starts. He won 24 games with a 0.97 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, and 238 K’s for a sweet 15.5 FBHOF points.
He wasn’t the best player of the year however, that distinction goes to Mike Scott who recorded 17.3 FBHOF points, 9th highest of the fantasy era, and the best mark for a non-hall of famer. The rest of the starting rotation was made up of one time all stars Mike Witt and Mike Krukow, three time all star Jack Morris, and one of the last good seasons of FBHOF’er Fernando Valenzuela. Starters were the lone bright spot, finishing 7th in the rankings.

The principal concern with the 1986 All Stars is a poor showing from the catchers and middle infielders. Jody Davis, back up catcher to Carter, is elected with the 2nd worst All Star score for catchers ever. The middle infielders had a different problem – Cal Ripken, Steve Sax, and Alan Trammell each had good years, averaging 10.2 FBHOF points, but 1986 marked the first time no middle infielder reached the 12 point plateau, the cut-off used for “great” seasons. This results in a raking of just 27th.

Outfielders performed close to the average with Kirby Puckett (.328, 119 R, 31 HR, 96 RBI, 20 SB) and Rickey Henderson (130 R, 28 HR, 87 SB) leading the charge. Closers were now fully into the period of less innings pitched, which reduced their fantasy value considerably:

Clemens’ Red Sox lost to Carter’s Mets in one of the more memorable World Series.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 24th
IF: 27th
OF: 12th
SP: 7th
RP: 21st
Overall: 19th

Year: 1987
First Time All Stars: 11 – Tim Burke, Tony Gwynn, Tom Henke, Howard Johnson, Jimmy Key, Mark McGwire, Matt Nokes, Benito Santiago, Darryl Strawberry, Frank Viola, Bob Welch
3 Time All Stars: 4 – Andre Dawson, Dwight Evans, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell
5 Time All Stars: 1 – Dale Murphy
10 Time All Stars: N/A
Future FBHOF’ers: 4 – Clemens, Dawson, Paul Molitor, Murphy
Snubs: Tim Raines (11.9), Vince Coleman (11.2), Kirby Puckett (11.1)
16 Pt Season: None

The late 1980’s into the early 1990’s was a period of few standouts. The number of 12 Point, 16 Point, and 18 Point seasons was all down from levels established in the early and mid 1980’s, and well off the pace of the late 90’s into early 2000’s. Only until recently as parity gripped teams and players alike, have the numbers returned to a level near the late 1980’s.

The chart below depicts the number of each season type (12, 16, or 18 points) by year. The Y-Axis is represents the number of season types per team, on average. For instance, in 1998 every other team, 50%, would expect to have a 12 point player. This is twice as much as the all time low of 1994, when 1 in 4 teams would have a 12 point player.

With no 16 point seasons, or 15 point seasons for that matter, there are few standouts in 1987 – every non catcher recorded somewhere between 10.8 and 14.3 points.  The best of the bunch was George Bell and his 47 home runs.  Mark McGwire belted 49 homers, but scored lower than Bell in every other category, especially RBI where he fell short 134 to 118.    Darryl Strawberry (39 HR, 36 SSB), Eric Davis (37 HR, 50 SB), Andre Dawson (49 HR, 137 RBI), and Dale Murphy (44 HR, 115 R) all had memorable seasons but none scored particularly highly.

1987 is famous for its offensive explosion.  In the 5 year period after the 1981strike, baseball averaged less than 13 players with 30 or more home runs.  In 1987 the figure spiked to 28.  Baseball also averaged less than 1 player per season hitting 40 home runs prior to 1987.  Then the number more than quadrupled to four (Bell, Dawson, McGwire, Murphy).  Even the number players who hit 10 and 20 or more home runs increased considerably, 20% and 55% respectively.  Because of this, it was difficult to stand out, which reduces a players FBHOF score.  Simple supply and demand – if more players are hitting 30+ homers, the less an owner has to fight for there services, reducing each players overall value.

The pitchers were no better off than the batters.  Starters rank 20th overall and relievers 13th, though the impact of closers is already small as we have seen.   Roger Clemens (20 W, 1.18 WHIP, 2.97 ERA, 256 K) was pitcher of the year, though his stats add up to just 13.7 points.  He’s followed in the rotation by Jimmy Key (just 161 K), Mike Scott (16 W, 3.23 ERA), Frank Viola, Jack Morris, and Bob Welch.  This was also the first time no All Star relievers reached 100 innings pitched.

The 1987 World Series featured FBHOF’ers Kirby Puckett and Frank Viola.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 5th
IF: 15th
OF: 26th
SP: 27th
RP: 2nd
Overall: 22nd

Year: 1988
First Time All Stars: 11 – Jose Canseco, David Cone, Mark Davis, Dennis Eckersley, John Franco, Julio Franco, Andres Galarraga¸ Mike Greenwell, Teddy Higuera, Danny Jackson, Barry Larkin, Ernie Whitt
3 Time All Stars: 4 – Roger Clemens, George Brett, Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, Ryne Sandberg, Dave Winfield
5 Time All Stars: 1 – Henderson
10 Time All Stars: N/A
Future FBHOF’ers: 7 – Canseco, Clemens, Cone, Henderson, Molitor, Kirby Puckett, Sandberg
Snubs: Andy Van Slyke (12.0), Will Clark (11.4), Kirk Gibson (11.0), Kevin McReynolds (10.4), Joe Carter (10.2)
16 Pt Season: Canseco (18.3)

The 1988 All-Stars are our worst ranked team in fantasy history. The Catchers and infielders are ranked last, the relievers 3rd to last, and the starting pitchers were barely average. If it weren’t for featuring the 3rd best offensive season of the Fantasy Era, this team would have been dreadful.

Starting with the positives – future Fantasy Baseball Hall of Famer Jose Canseco was awesome. He hit 42 home runs and stole 40 bases to be baseball first “40/40’ man. He hit over .300 and accumulated 120+ Runs and RBI. His 18.3 FBHOF points is just 1 of 4 such seasons in fantasy history. Fellow outfielder Kirby Puckett was also enjoying the best fantasy season of his career, adding 15.8 FBHOF points after batting .356 with 109 R, 24 HR, 121 RBI and 6 stolen bases. This gave the outfielders a 3rd place ranking.

Starting pitcher Orel Hershiser narrowly missed enshrinement into the FBHOF, falling short by just one-tenth of a point. His 1988 FBHOF score of 13.4 was the best of his career too, winning 23 games with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.26 ERA. This was also the season of his famous 59 consecutive scoreless innings streak. Joining Hershiser were FBHOF’ers Roger Clemens and David Cone, both of who were very good but not great. The 1988 starting pitching ranks 14th, exactly average.

The main problem with this squad is the entire infield; because of their deficiencies a record 54.9 FBHOF points were left off the team as Andy Van Slyke, Will Clark, Kirk Gibson, Kevin McReynolds, and Joe Carter were omitted. Van Slyke’s 12.0 FBHOF points is the second worst snub of all time. He had 101 R, 100 RBI, 25 HR, and 30 SB and was ranked as the 7th best batter and finished 4th in the NL-MVP voting.

Instead of the likes of Van Slyke and Clark, the 1988 team was saddled with catchers Ernie Whitt and Tony Pena. Whitt at least had 16 HR and 70 RBI, respectable for a catcher, but Pena was bad for an All Star by any standard – .263 AVG, 55 R, 10 HR, 51 RBI. Much of the rest of the infield was of poor quality too. Julio Franco, Barr Larkin, and Ryne Sandberg all failed to reach 10 FBHOF points and only one of the six infielders, George Brett, reached the 100 RBI plateau.

Along with past great Dave Winfield, 1988 would be Brett’s last All Star appearance. However, the career’s of David Cone (5 All Star appearances), Andres Galarraga (3), Julio Franco (3), Dennis Eckersley (3), and Canseco were just emerging.

The 1988 World Series featured the famous Kirk Gibson home run off of Dennis Eckersley, catapulting the Dodgers to a relatively easy 5 game victory. The Dodgers featured FBHOF’er Fernando Valenzuela, while the Athletics countered with Canseco.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 28th
IF: 28th
OF: 3rd
SP: 14th
RP: 26th
Overall: 28th

I was drunk for the first three months of the fantasy baseball season. That’s right, blitzed. Three coladas to the wind. Someone would ask me for fantasy baseball advice and I’d type out my answers with a celery stalk that was drenched in booze. Chris Davis or Chase Headley? I’d play eeny-meeny-miney-moe with my cocktail umbrellas. Start Kuroda? I’d ask whatever nogoodnik was on the stool next to me at the local watering hole. But I had, as drunks say, a moment of clarity. So I decided to take the All-Star Break as an opportunity to look back at some ill-advised fantasy baseball advice that I gave and make amends. As Josh Hamilton would say, “It’s Step 8. Make a list of all persons we have harmed, and make amends to them all. Apologize especially to Milton Bradley, or he’ll stab you with a spork.” Anyway, here goes some apologies for first half fantasy baseball advice that makes me lucky the American Mustache Institute doesn’t revoke my license to have a mustache:

Travis Hafner – I placed him 4th overall for all first basemen. Not only did Hafner not deliver what I had hoped, he didn’t deliver anything, except a message that read, “I don’t deserve my uber-cool nickname, Pronk, and my bones have atrophied 500% in the last two years.” Unless Hafner gets in that pool from the movie, “Cocoon,” we’re done with each other forever. Skinny dip with Wilford Brimley or it’s goodbye. Your call, Pronk.

Rich Hill – I put everyone in this schmohawk, including Carl in the first comment here. I think Carl promised to hate me forever if the trade backfired. Luckily, all he lost was Krispie Young. I hate you, Rich Hill, for coming between me and Carl!

Jeff Francoeur – Even in leagues that don’t count OBP, I hate guys that don’t take a walk, but Frenchy had a certain je ne sais quoi. Maybe his free swinging ways made him like Vlad, but white — as most Vlads are.  Well, I was wrong here (even choosing him over Josh Hamilton in that ‘pert league), here and here. I swung and missed with Franceour about as many times as he did. Next time I tout Frenchy, my article title may as well be, “Grey’s Gay for Francoeur.”

Robinson Cano – There were times on this site when I should’ve changed my Don Mattingly look-a-like picture and put Cano up there with a big heart over it. I was blinded by Cano’s youth and flat, line drive stroke that is Carew-like. (If his swing was anymore like Carew’s, he’d have to circumcise the knobs on his bat.) Or maybe I was attracted to Cano’s absurdly low BABIP that made me think again and again he had to be a Buy Low…. Actually, I’m still buying. Act like you know, MC Lyte!

Edwin Encarnacion – When I placed him 15th out of all third basemen, I said this, “Maybe I’m effin’ crazy, but I like Encarnacion.” I was crazy. See, your first instinct is always right. Go ask Malcolm Gladwell.

Alex Gordon – I loved Gordon coming into the year. Was I wrong? That’s what this post is about. Why are you asking rhetorical questions that do nothing but hurt me? When you cut me, do I not bleed?

Alexis Rios – This is Rios’s fault as much as it’s mine. Why does your swing have to be so sweet?

Aaron Harang – I called Harang up the other day on my cellular phone. “Grey here.” “Oh, I was just calling in an order for some Hot & Sour Soup and potstickers and didn’t hear the phone ring.” “Yeah, that’s cool. Listen–” “Who did you say you were again?” “Never mind that.  Just let me say something.” “Um… Who?” “Listen, this isn’t easy. I’m sorry for putting so much pressure on you. I thought you were a solid starter that was wholly underrated. I see now you weren’t underappreciated, just under-skilled–” “This is an apology?” “Yeah, give me a second. So when I told everyone they should not only draft you, but trade for you. Why did you then shit my house? Cause I think the–” “This doesn’t sound like an apology.” “I’m getting to it!” “Okay, but I think I have another call.” “Oh, okay, I just figured you owed me some kind of apology–” “Me apologize to you?” “Yeah, you completely ruined five of my fantasy teams!” “I thought you were the one who was supposed to apologize.” “Yeah, you’re right. I apologize for believiing in you, you fat, mother– Hello? Hello? Aaron?”