This week’s Fantasy Roundtable is being hosted by our boys Zach and Pete at MLB Front Office’s Rotonomics. I picture them having cubicles outside Bud Selig’s office and being summoned from time to time to get him a brat and a brewskie.
THE TOPIC: What injured pitcher and hitter do you think will pleasantly surprise owners when they return later this season?
I did the pussy thing and picked as many guys as possible in hopes that one or two come through so I look good in hindsight. But if my surprise pitcher actually does perform, I’ll be as surprised as anyone….
With two home runs yesterday, Ryan Braun is up to 20 HRs. Not sure I mentioned this before, but I traded for The Hebrew Hammer a couple of weeks ago. (If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!) I traded Carl Crawford for Braun. Rudy called me all kinds of names about this one. Topped with, “I’d say you’ve sunk to a new low but trading Verlander to (so-and-so) for Street (two years ago) when (so-and-so) was 3 starts away from being maxed out was the lowest…” Honestly, I enjoy pissing off my friends at fantasy baseball, but I wasn’t sure why Rudy was mad about this one. I mean, Crawford for Braun is fair, no? Well, turns out the team I traded Crawford to didn’t need steals. Know what? I don’t care. The team’s owner has been playing with us for a long time. He’s proven himself a worthy adversary. If he wants to trade for more steals while sporting Reyes, Pierre and Bourn, it’s his prerogative. (I don’t need permission to make my fantasy baseball decisions….It’s my prerogative…) So does this mean I suddenly endorse Braun? I placed him 22 overall; I never didn’t endorse him (sorry, double negatives hurt my brain, too). I just thought Braun was going too high. Well, on that team, I needed power because Hafner was a have-not, so I went out and got Braun. Am I suddenly down on Crawford? I am starting to think the power may never come and I’m not a huge fan of speed only guys, so there’s that. The lesson that should be taken away? Every player has a place on some team. Except Ryan Zimmerman. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Chase Headley – Watched him bat three times yesterday. Saw nothing that exciting. Seems like he likes to take a pitch even if it means striking out. Reminded me of Jeremy Hermida in this respect. This was one game; this is by no means a ‘pert evaluation.
Manny Parra – 7 shutout innings, 5/4 K/BB. Confidence level looks like it’s climbing. (I don’t know what that means. I heard Bill Schroeder say it and Bill Schroeder is a knowledgeable color man.) Know what helps a confidence level? Pitching against the Blue Jays.
Jose Reyes -Left with what Jose Mota (not Molina) deemed a minor injury. Word from a different (more reliable) source is he might have strained a hamstring. Ugh… *sticking head in oven*
Brad Penny – Hit the DL yesterday. Here’s what Alyssa Milano’s MLB blog update said today, “I told him to stop eating all of those fried foods and late nite meals at Mel’s Diner. When I was preparing for the roll (sic) of Charlotte Wells in Embrace of the Vampire, I ate only soba noodles for 2 months straight! Do u think I wanted to eat so much soba noodles? Well, actually…. Yeah! I did! (Wouldn’t u?) But even if I thought soba noodles tasted gross, I’d still ate (sic) them if I thought they’d help me stay in shape. BTW, I wasn’t the one who gave you herpes! L8 and <3″
Chad Billingsley – I want to draft Billingsley right now for 2009, 2010 and 2011 with an option for 2012. In the same blog entry, Alyssa Milano said this about Billingsley, “Blame Penny for the herpes. Sorry! L8 and <3 * 2″
Johnny Cueto – Not sure why his Ks are so down. Might have something to do with scouting reports, but I think it’s more to do with him falling behind and going for contact. There’s also a strong chance that Dusty Baker is somehow responsible. Dusty, “Cueto, I will throw you in back-to-back games for the ‘mainder of the season if you try to strike people out. I’m not joking. Call up Mark Prior, he will tell you.”
Brandon Webb – Going through what the people in the biz call, “a dead arm period.” If this period is anything like my girlfriend’s, it’s best to act like he’s fine and NOT bloated.
Justin Duchscherer – Of course, Dook-sheer pitched well. Apparently, that’s what Dook-Sheer do. Needed only 94 pitches to get through 8 innings.
Jeff Clement – The Mariners called him up, so he got in the game, right? Nope. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Seattle Mariners!
Brandon Morrow – Making the best of the opportunity, converted a save with a perfect ninth. Putz hadn’t pitched a perfect inning in June.
Ian Snell – Snell got O-Cab to ground out to open the game. The rest didn’t look so good.
Carlos Quentin – Batting .170 in June. Where’s April/May Carlos? We want him back.
Livan Hernandez – Movie trailer guy, “In a world where Livan Hernandez looks like a good replacement for Johan Santana… He’ll baffle you with his eephus! He’ll take his time with each pitch! He’ll avoid the foul line when walking off the field! George Lopez is Livan Hernandez!”
Brandon Lyon – Kazaam’d up the joint for 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.
In a continuation from last week, Part II of the starting pitcher class is enshrined today.
I have a confession to make – chick’s may dig the long ball, but I dig a sub-2.00 ERA. I have always been a sucker for starting pitching and would take 1994 Greg Maddux over 2001 Barry Bonds every day of the week. I weep openly when reviewing the 1906 Chicago Cubs rotation and pine for the next Walter Johnson. An elite starter is the most potent weapon a team can field as he alone has the singular ability to render every other player at the park virtually meaningless. It didn’t matter who Bob Gibson or Randy Johnson faced when they were at their best because making contact was a fruitless exercise.
Five starting pitchers are to be enshrined today, four of which are immortals that separated themselves from the rest of baseball like no quartet has done before. Randy Johnson, Gregg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez are all first ballot Hall of Famers when considering skill and skill alone. They are elite Fantasy Hall of Famers as well. No players, at any position, improved their team’s chances at winning more than these four.
But first we pay our respects to #5 all time, Curt Schilling, a starter who battled himself and injuries for 9 years before becoming a fantasy star. Schilling’s best season came as a 35 year old with the Diamondbacks in 2002. He won 23 games, held his WHIP down to 0.97, and struck out a whopping 316 batters. The year before he won 22 with a 1.08 WHIP and had 293 strikeouts. In 1997 and 1998 he also struck out an extreme number of batters, giving him three 300+ strikeout seasons. Since 1990 Schilling is one of just three pitchers to strike out this many; has the second most such season seasons since 1980; and third most since the deadball era ended. Yet, Schilling never finished any season as the best fantasy pitcher, with good reason though – his competition was fierce.
The Top 25-Fantasy Pitchers:
Schilling was superb, scoring over 72 points while contributing in just 4 categories, but had no where near the impact of the “Big Four”. Martinez, ranked 4th, scores full 17% better than Schilling, who himself scores 15% better than Kevin Brown.
Holding fantasy value aside for the moment, one can make a convincing argument that no pitcher in the history of the game was more dominant over a two year stretch than Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000, the latter year being the single greatest pitching performance in the history of the sport in my opinion.
I think we are all now familiar with Baseball-Reference.com at this point, and likely all familiar with ERA+, but in case you are not, ERA+ is a statistic that shows how much better than average a pitchers ERA is, when considering ballparks (it is more difficult to pitch at the Ballpark in Arlington than it is at Shea). Holding aside the 1800’s where the game was vastly different than it is today (9 balls, batters get to call their own pitch, etc) here is the Top 10 list of best seasonal ERA+ scores:
291 – Pedro Martinez, 2000
279 – Dutch Leonard, 1914
271 – Greg Maddux, 1994
262 – Greg Maddux, 1995
259 – Walter Johnson, 1913
258 – Bob Gibson, 1968
253 – 3-Finger Brown, 1906
243 – Pedro Martinez, 1999
242 – Walter Johnson, 1912
As impressive as it is to have an era 191% better than league average, it is probably more impressive to be this much better than the next best. Further, in 2000, Martinez had an unheard of WHIP of 0.74. That figure is so good it’s unjust, perhaps even Wiffle Ball good, and is best mark all time 1800’s be damned.
Martinez had more to his career than 2000 of course. He also finished first among pitchers in 1999 and recorded 4 other Top-5 seasons, giving him a stellar record of performance during his peak: 19 W, 0.92 WHIP, 2.18 ERA, 278 K during his best 5 years.
It’s odd thinking about this now, and it isn’t just a reaction to the recent criticism Roger Clemens has brought upon himself, but somehow the greatest pitcher likely since the 1930’s has gone underrated. Make no mistake, Clemens was awesome over a period of almost 20 years. In 1986, his third year in the bigs, and in his first season as a full time starter, the Rocket won 24 games, struck out 238 batters (in 254 innings), recorded a WHIP of 0.97 and an ERA of 2.48. In his 22nd season as a major league starter, Clemens came through a 1.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just over 211 innings of work. In between he won 17+ games eleven times; had ERA’s well below league average thirteen times; and struck out 185+ batters 14 times.
As a fantasy player Clemens was at his best in 1997 when tossing for the Blue Jays: 21 W, 1.03 WHIP, 2.05 ERA, 292 K’s and the #1 pitcher ranking in the game, a feat he achieved on three earlier occasions as well in 1987, 1990 and 1991. His 5 year peak average looks like this: 21 W, 1.06 WHIP, 2.56 ERA, 260K with finishes of 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
What separates Clemens from Greg Maddux for fantasy purposes is an utterly dominant season. At his best, Clemens scored 16.2 FBHOF points. Maddux finished both his 1994 and 1995 seasons with more points, and more points by far. In 1994, a strike year of course, Maddux won 16 games mostly because of his off the chart rate stats – 0.90 WHIP and 1.56 ERA. He also struck out 156 batters, which seems low, but is quite good when considering he lost as many as 10 starts, perhaps 60-65 total K’s. This line of thinking is instructive – prorating for the whole season his stat line becomes: 22 W, 0.90 WHIP, 1.56 ERA, 221 K which just happens to be the single most dominating performance in fantasy history – 18.8 FBHOF points.
The following year he bested Clemens top performance again, this time with 17 points due to a 0.81 WHIP and 1.63 ERA. In all Maddux has four #1 finishes to his name and his peak 5 year average is masterful: 18 W, 0.96 WHIP, 2.03 ERA, 183 K.
Finally, we end with Randy Johnson, of whom it can be argued, for fantasy anyway, was Clemens and Maddux rolled into one. Clemens was amazing for his longevity – 12 seasons of 8+ FBHOF points. Maddux scored so high due to his tantalizing rate stats – eight seasons with a WHIP under 1.10 and seven with ERA’s under 2.65. Johnson himself is just shy of Clemens with eleven “Hall of Fame” worthy seasons and does indeed match Maddux for incredible ERA’s and falls just one short on WHIP side of the ledger.
Remembering that pitchers can score in just four categories we also need to bring up Johnson’s record of six seasons scoring 16+ FBHOF points. How good is this? In 2000 Johnson had 19 W, 347 K, 1.12 WHIP, a 2.64 ERA and it basically doesn’t count towards his Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame credentials since it wasn’t good enough to count as part of his 5 year peak.
Further, Johnson struck out 300 or more batters twice as much Schilling and all told bested the 290 mark another nine times. Nine! What do you get when you combine the power of Schilling with the finesse of Maddux, and then mix in the sustained greatness of Clemens? You get the best Fantasy Baseball player in history.
A chart of some key metrics for our last five inductees, because, yes, I love great pitchers:
Chien Ming Wang is out at least 6-10 weeks with a foot sprain. (Yes, Wang limp until September.) Drop Wang. Drop him now. Definitely a blow for the Yanks. (Yes, usually Wang takes blow, not dealt one.) If you were counting on him to pitch you to the fantasy pennant, you’ve got bigger issues. (Yes, your Wang problems are “big” issues.) Who are the Yankees turning to? Dan Giese. The new Yankee starter is a 31 year old phenom who has pitched for the Phillies and Giants affiliates the past two years. Did we say phenom? We meant journeyman. But he had been a reliever who was known to have good stuff. The Yanks made him a starter and his AAA numbers this year were fantastic – 59 IP, 1.98 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 51/14 K/BB. Maybe he’s the next Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon? Or at least another Darrell Rasner. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball:
Fernando Rodney – He’s been activated and he gave up 3 ER in a third of an inning. Welcome back!
Marcus Thames – 7HR in 9 Games. A frequent commenter RT added him 6 games ago. That’s awesome (for him)! But this got me thinking, we should divvy up all of the streakiest hitters and everyone should take one. So whenever your guy goes off, you tell everyone else. Not sure how to implement this, seems like a thing for the forums.
Justin Verlander – So he should’ve got the win, but, and I know it’s of little consolation, at least he was up for a win.
Curtis Granderson – 3 steals on the year. Pudge has 6. That’s awesome. I’m so bummed I didn’t get Grandy in any league. He’s bonafide!
Fred Lewis – .326 and 2 HRs in June, but only two steals. He can steal five in a week if he gets the urge.
Ryan Howard – Made his case for the heavyweight championship with 2 HR and a triple against the Sawx. Howard’s been hot of late with 4 HR and 12 RBI in his last four games while cutting down his Ks to once every 4 AB. The gauntlet has been set Mr. Fielder – do you accept the challenge?
JD Drew – Everyone on the Sawx seems to be getting hurt except Drew. Now he’s on a streak – 7 HR in 17 G. I bet the HR in Philly so pissed off the locals. Who’s next on the Sawx to get hot? Sean Casey? Julio Lugo?
Andrew Miller – 7 IP, 1 ER. The Marlins are the last team to ever play in Seattle. Marlins pitchers now understand what everyone was talking about.
Bill Bavasi – We have a guy from Seattle in our cash league that always ends up with Mariners and even he admits Bill Bavasi is god awful. Let’s count the ways. Sexson to a monster contract. A rotation that includes Washburn, Batista, and a $10MM/per Carlos Silva. Paying off Adrian Beltre after a career year. Jose Vidro at DH. Extension for a Japanese catcher that his pitchers don’t like throwing to. I’d let Bill Bavasi into any of my cash leagues next year…except for a Razzball one…he’s a natural.
Will probably be activated for Tuesday. I hear the Padres didn’t want to pay for his Sunday meal waiver when the guys decided to go to Dick’s Last Resort in the Gaslamp. Chicken Fingers don’t come cheap. Headley should play six of seven games unless he struggles mightily, then he’ll probably play seven of seven like the Friars did with Kouzmanoff last year. Headley can hit. Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder are about the only ones that could hit forty home runs in Petco if it were their home park, so the park will be a factor in Headley’s success. Headley has a terrific eye and good power. Will he be Bruceterful? Perhaps, he’s got a much better eye than Bruce, but his ballpark is dreadful. Also, his speed is somewhere between A-Gonz and Kouz, which is to say it’s non-existent. I’d say Headley’s projections are 30/10/40/.280. Numbers that could make a difference in deep leagues. Of course, the exciting thing is the ceiling’s much higher since he’s a rookie. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Jorge Campillo – Complete game loss is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you’re allergic to complete game losses, which would be an odd allergy. But I think Trace Adkins can help.
Micah Owings – I’m done done with Micah Owings. You wanna use him in the near future? You’re taking your WHIP into your own hands. For those reading in Latin America, caveat emptor.
Billy Wagner – Hey, what do you know? He can still get three guys out. Imagine how many saves Nolan Ryan would’ve had if he only had to get three guys out four days a week. Seriously, imagine it. If you can’t, I will for you. 12,000 saves for Nolan Ryan.
Paul Konerko – Might head to the DL. Maybe he’s got the same injury as Victor Martinez. The ‘ol “I’m really sucking and I gotta figure out an excuse fast” injury.
David DeJesus – 3 HRs and .345 in June. Also, turned a loss into a win.
Joe Saunders – Fifth ten game winner. Is it me or are we headed for more twenty game winners this year than in the last four years combined?
Lastings Milledge – Playings welledge recently, but stilledge got a way to go before he’s worth addings.
Jacoby Ellsbury – 33rd steal. On pace for a lot. I gotta say, one of the bigger surprises this season so far for Grey (that’s me). Maybe later in the week I’ll do my top twenty surprises. That seems like something you people would like to read.
Vernon Wells – After leaving with a sore wrist on Saturday, he was back in there to go 0-for-4. I’ll cut to the chase for you, a sore wrist for Wells is a major issue.
Jorge Posada – 8-for-22 and two home runs since returning. Eh, Doumit did that in one game. If you need a piece, trade Posada and don’t feel guilty about it. As Oskar Schindler said, I pardon you.
Jay Bruce – He just came off his worst week (5-for-30 with one RBI) and I don’t think it’s necessarily going to get better. However, he did manage to find time to air lift 18 rare mountain bongo antelope to Africa.
C.C. Sabathia – I’m sure glad he was an absolute waste of a top pick– Oh, wait. He’s fine. Yeah, dur. (BTW, I said Cliff Lee wouldn’t be at 2.50 ERA by June 15th and Eric Karabell said he’d finish the season with it. I win. Again. Eat it, Karabaloney.)
