Fantasy Baseball Advice

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Atlanta Braves preview.)

Although it’s been two seasons since the end of the greatest divisional winning streak in professional sports history came to an end the Braves still have hope of bringing another division crown home in 2008. Under new General Manager Frank Wren, Atlanta returns a core of veterans and a group of baby braves that aren’t so baby anymore.

Just as pitching lead the Braves to those fourteen divisional titles, they must count on their pitching to win games. With the return of longtime Atlanta favorite Tom Glavine (prediction 12-9 4.20ERA), the Braves have a trio of former twenty game winners at the top of the rotation. If Mike Hampton (prediction 4-6 5.20ERA) can return to his what seems like an eternity ago peak then that trio becomes a quartet. Early indications show Hampton looking strong, but as we have learned in previous seasons nobody is holding their breath. As long as Hudson (prediction 17-12 3.44ERA) and Smoltz (prediction 16-10 3.25ERA) can perform in the role of team aces and Glavine can just be relied on to eat up innings I believe he can still be very effective at this point in his career. Also the rejuvenated competition between longtime friend and teammate John Smoltz should help Glavine to dig down deep for that extra competitive edge. The remaining two slots in the rotation will be a very interesting battle to watch throughout the season. Of course Hampton will be given every shot and Chuck James (prediction 10-9 4.35ERA) also has an inside track on the other opening, you have to like the other young options that the Braves could turn to. Jo-Jo Reyes and Buddy Carlyle were given some chances last year with mixed results, but Jair Jurrjens who came over in the Renteria trade has looked fantastic in spring training. The dark horse candidate is Charlie Morton. Charlie is a relatively unknown who has already impressed manager Bobby Cox and I see him getting a call up and being a regular contributor by the end of the season.

Atlanta’s bullpen is anchored by Rafael Soriano (prediction 2.70ERA 38SV) who will be called upon to be the teams full time closer this year. Last year he showed flashes of brilliance and the ability to dominate games in the later innings. It is critical for him to be able to perform at this level the entire season. Peter Moylan (prediction 2.20ERA 5SV) will be asked to setup and a duty that if he struggles could share with the lefty, Mike Gonzalez, once Gonzalez returns from the DL midseason. Although the rest of the bullpen is young and inexperienced, there are many great arms and lots of potential. Manny Acosta, Will Ohman, Tyler Yates, Royce Ring, and Blaine Boyer will all compete for time in the pen.

The Braves infield is anchored by Mark Teixiera (prediction .305 39/119) and Chipper Jones (prediction .325 25/98). Teixiera and Jones are easily the most dynamic 3-4 combo in the majors. Never have two slugging switch hitters anchored a lineup like this before and they promise to wreck havoc on pitchers all season. Middle infielders Yunel Escobar (prediction .290 12/70) and Kelly Johnson (prediction .290 18/79) will set the table for the switch hitter mashers. In a partial season Yunel was very impressive at the plate and Kelly Johnson showed amazing plate discipline. Slugging catcher Brian McCann (prediction .295 25/95) at 24 is already one of the best offensive catchers in the game and his defense continues to improve.

Although Atlanta’s outfield looks like their biggest weakness fortunately it is where they have the largest wealth of prospects and talent. Gold Glove winner Jeff Francoeur (prediction .300 25/100) will again play RF and it looks like Matt Diaz (prediction .315 18/80) will be given the full time job in LF a job that I believe he fully deserves. Diaz is career .320 hitter (774 at bats) and his defense in the field is actual better than the league average. With the departure of longtime and perennial CF Andruw Jones taking his ten gold gloves to Los Angeles and no major free agent signing to fill the vacancy the center field position is wide open for this coming season. Mark Kotsay and Josh Anderson were brought in and will be given the initial opportunities to fill the void. Should either of them stumble, top prospect Jordan Schafer will be ready. It’s the universal belief that Schafer will be the long term solution and will be the starting CF by the start of the 2009 season. The Braves also have many other solid prospects should they need any additional outfield help. Jason Heyward who was Atlanta’s top pick in 2007 is believed to have superstar makeup and Gorkys Hernandez will both be ready if called upon.

Martin Prado and Scott Thorman are out of options so they will take up two slots on the bench. Tom Glavine isn’t the only former Braves all-star looking to make a comeback with the team. Javy Lopez is battling for a bench job as the backup catcher. His bat has always been his strength, but the reports have been very encouraging that he will win a bench spot with much improved defense. By breaking his hand Omar Infante has opened a temporary spot on the bench. Brent Lillibridge is a solid defender with plus speed who hopes to prove to the major league club that he will have long term value as a short stop. Upon returning Infante is an undervalued utility player who actually is a solid hitter and can efficiently play many positions.
Andruw Jones provided the Braves with gold glove defense in center field for over a decade. Any member of the pitching staff will tell you they benefited from having him effortlessly track down balls in the gap and turn extra base hits into outs. The combination of the Braves ability to adjust to this absence or a player being able to step up and fill the gap will be what can end the Braves drought and win another pennant. The lineup is strong and the pitching staff looks to be the best in the last few years, unfortunately the division hasn’t been this competitive in quite a while. The Phillies and Mets both are legitimate division winning challengers and the two having won a division title in the past two years only helps their confidence and validates their threat. The pitching staff staying healthy and effective will make or break Atlanta’s playoff and division chances. I wouldn’t bet against them, but the road will be long and challenging.

Kyle James runs The Tomahawk a news portal to blogosphere that syndicates Atlanta Braves blogs. He also guest writes for various Braves blogs including Blabberin Braves.

Lackey, Beckett and Kazmir are currently fighting injury. Lackey’s looks like it will hold him out until mid-May. Kazmir was recently scratched from making his first spring training start due to a lack of arm strength. Beckett… Well, Beckett was oft-injured up until last year. Blisters preliminarily, but hardly a model of good health. What does this mean for fantasy? It means don’t draft them unless they fall way down in your draft. The amount of risk involved with drafting a starter with an arm injury isn’t worth it. Sure, the season is long and by June both of these guys may be okay, but why risk it? There’s a chance that these spring training arm injuries will be a sign of things to come. This is one of the biggest reasons why I like to draft mid- to late-March. If you drafted Lackey last week (I put him on my short list for AL Cy Young contenders and placed him very high (for an AL pitcher) on my top 100), it’s just crappy luck. If you draft later in spring training, luck is removed from the equation. And skill remains. As for…

Homer Bailey. He’s 21 years-old. As Dusty Baker is not someone you want managing your pitching staff, inexperienced pitchers are not something you want on your team. If you’re in an NL-only keeper, I could understand taking a flier. Everyone else, wait until he’s called up from the minors or next year. So who does get the Reds rotation spot?

Edinson Volquez and/or Johnny Cueto.  Let’s look at what our favorite ESPN “analyst,” Eric Karabell, said, :”…Volquez who is past prospect status…” Edinson is 23 and averaged over 9 Ks per 9 innings in the minors. Granted, he is (or was) a bit wild. Later in the same piece, Karabell said Cueto was a prospect to watch. Cueto is 22 and averaged almost exactly the the same K/9, but does walk less people. If anyone knows what Karabell is talking about, please do share. Anyway, grab Volquez and/or Cueto in late rounds in your NL-only and even deep mixed leagues. Rookies that can strikeout people are very valuable their first time through the league.

Question:
I’m wondering why there’s such a huge gap between BaseballHQ’s value for Dunn and yours. HQ has him 72nd and your player rater has him 22nd for batters in mixed 12 team regular 5×5. HQ assigns $ values but I think it’s effectively the same thing. PECOTA likes Dunn so i assume the difference lies in the valuation method. Do you know what theirs is? I’m tempted to lean toward your method because i understand it and it mostly makes sense to me, but i just want to make sure that you fully endorse that ranking. right now i have him between Pence and Manny.

Also, do you have the replacement level averages you used for the point shares handy?

Rudy’s Response:
Regarding Dunn, here are the baseline projections for us and Baseball HQ:

Razzball: 513 AB / 100 R / 38 HR / 100 RBI / 7 SB / .256
Baseball HQ: 553 AB / 105 R / 41 HR / 104 RBI / 7 SB / .251

Can’t say that I’m familiar w/ Baseball HQ’s Player Rater (have the book and access to online projections) but I’m looking in the book and Dunn is drafted 62nd overall in their 15 team mixed league snake draft and tied for about 52nd place overall in projected dollar value at $24. Our Point Shares project him at #40. Blogmate Grey ranks Dunn at #33 in his top 100.

I think if you took Baseball HQ’s ranks and put them next to ours, you would find more dramatic differences than this. I see them having Pierre in the top 30 where he barely cracks our top 100 b/c we dock him for his crap HR/RBI (on a side note, I ended up with Dunn and Pierre in my expert league).

Here is one thought for the differences and a reason that compelled me to do Point Shares. Sites like Baseball HQ and BP tend to be snobs on fantasy league structures. They prefer single league auctions or – in the case of Baseball HQ’s simulated snake draft – a 15 team league (which I’ve never seen). I think the majority of players are in 10 or 12 team mixed leagues so the rankings have to be filtered through the scarcity/needs of that universe.

I think 10-12 team mixed leagues aren’t as starved for speed and middle infielders as the leagues that a Baseball HQ projects for. Pierre went in the 9th round of my 12 team expert league and no one was patting me on the back for great value (including myself).

Let’s dig into Dunn a bit more. While no one loves Dunn, look at where his projections rank him in his position:
1) Projected at #1 for OF HR (38)
2) Projected at #3 for OF Runs (100)
3) Projected at #4 for OF RBI (100)

Compared to the other power positions (1B/3B), the average OF has lesser power numbers: 78/20/77 vs. 1B’s 85/28/95 and 3B’s 85/25/90. So our point shares system likes Dunn a lot for those three categories. It would value him less if he was a 1B/3B, more if he played 2B/SS/C.

Now if he hit .300, I think he’d go in the 2nd round. He’s projected to hit in the .250 – .260 range. Not good since we’ve got the average 12 team BA at .282. His walks help because he’s slated only for 500-550 AB vs. 600-650 AB. The Point Shares takes all this into account and basically says that his crappy average neutralizes his Runs or RBI advantage (BA is -1.5, RBI is +1.5). So an OF hitting .260 with 100 RBIs and an OF hitting .282 with 77 RBIs are worth the same points on an average team (note: for comparison’s sake, universally loved OFs like Granderson and Sizemore are set to hit about 77 RBIs and only hit .275. their RBI + AVG point shares equal 0 and -0.4 respectively)

So Dunn’s remaining two category advantage and not awful 7 SBs still give him overall positive value. I’d take the Point Shares rank at face value and say he’s worthy of a 4th round pick in a 10 team or 12 team league – particularly if a team drafted speed or a pitcher in the first three and needs to compensate on power. His batting average is a drag but it’s an overrated drag. Yes, a switch to Ichiro would give you an estimated swing of 3.6 points in AVG but you’d also lose 3 points in RBI and 4.2 points in HR (surprisingly, SBs don’t make up this dramatic difference…hence, Ichiro barely makes the top 100 in player rater and is our consensus worst 2nd round pick).

Not sure if this fully answered your question but hope it shed more light on why Dunn does well on Point Shares and why he might end up on more than one of my teams.

Regarding replacement value, I decided to stop using them with our 2008 Player Rater and stick to position averages (making average player stat = 0 vs. replacement player stat = 0). My reasoning is that replacement player stats regress to a similar mean, exacerbated by disproportionate slotting of 1B/3B/OF in the UTIL slot. So the replacement player at every position looks about the same. I think this is misleading as a 1B/3B/OF with that average stat line hurts your team vs. competition more than a 2B/SS/C. By using average, it gives you a better indication that Figgins KILLS a team at 3B (think of the HR/RBI difference vs. teams w/ A-Rod, Wright, Braun, Cabrera, A-Ram, and Atkins) but is pretty valuable as a 2B.

We’ve got 8 of 10 slots filled in for our inaugural Fantasy Razzball league – where the basic objective is to compile the worst roster of MLB players. That’s right – the worst team.

The blogs set to participate are:
Razzball.com (Rudy Gamble)
Razzball.com (Grey Albright)
RotoProfessor.com
Greener on the Other Side
Mop Up Duty
Herb Urban
Cards in the Attic
Lou Poulas (Fantasy Insider Online, Sweet Lou’s Baseball Lab, Razzball.com)

We need two more participants so if you’re interested in joining, please e-mail us at info@razzball.com. Draft day is scheduled for Saturday, March 22nd at 4PM EST.

Check out these links for the rules and a review of the least valuable – or as we like to say the most invaluable – players in 2007.

The biggest thrill and challenge is the absence of established strategies and expert rankings. A-Rod is almost a universal #1 in standard games – who will be #1 in our “Nick Punto is Ford Tough” Razzball league? I have no idea though I would’ve guessed league poster child Nick Punto if he was assured of playing time.

To create somewhat of a level playing field, I’ve created a 2008 Fantasy Razzball Player Rater based on Baseball Prospectus and Baseball HQ projections. I adopted our Point Shares methodology that we used for projected rankings of standard fantasy baseball. I used Baseball Prospectus’s depth chart to make sure only projected starters or key backups were included in the rankings for position players and starting pitchers.

This Player Rater should help all the participants set up their draft rankings and, for those of you not playing, should prove to be somewhat amusing….

Because things are always changing in fantasy baseball, it’s impossible to do a definitive list of the top hundred overall for 2008 or for any year for that matter. Tomorrow, Pujols could announce he’s having his surgery to repair his injured arm and be gone for the season or he could announce that he’s having his arm replaced with an aluminum bat and he moves to number one overall. Nevertheless, here’s my 2008 fantasy baseball top 100 as of right now. (BTW, download Rudy Gamble’s projections for 2008 here.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)