Luckily someone transcribed Eric Karabell’s crayon drawings into a blog post so we can see which players Karabaloney is thinking are overrated this year. As Common said, “It doesn’t take a whole day to recognize sunshine…” Well, it also doesn’t take a mouthful to recognize shit either. The following is only a sampling of Eric Karabell’s crap. Seriously, try and wrap your head around these puppies.
Roy Halladay – The ESPN ‘perts ranked him at 67. The rest of the free world ranks him at 99. You can’t say someone is overrated when you are the one overrating him?! Inconceivable! This would be like me saying Alex Gordon’s overrated after rating him sixty spots higher than everyone south of Canada and north of Mexico. Halladay may be good value at 99 because other than Ks, he has a proven track record of Wins, ERA, WHIP and injuries. He’s not in my top hundred for a reason.
Placido Polanco – The ESPN ‘perts ranked him 133. Everyone else ranked him at 163. This is akin to me saying I’m an overrated lay, even though I’m the only saying I’m good in bed. Polanco will guarantee you 90/7/65/.310/7 and a fifth place finish in your league. Try harder!
Travis Hafner – The World says 42. ESPN says 37. I said 34, and I thought I was overrating him. Hafner’s one of my risky picks because of his injury history and his position eligibility. I could understand if you passed him by, but to say he’s overrated… Ugh.
Bobby Abreu – Check out this Karabell turd nugget, “I bet most people who draft him think he can still be a 30/30 player. I do not.” Seriously, is it me or is Karabell The Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer? Abreu hasn’t come close to 30 homers in a while; does anyone actually believe they are getting a 30/30 guy? My projections were 120/15/110/.310/20. Sure doesn’t look like 30/30. Abreu hasn’t hit 30 homers since ’04 and has only recorded two 30 homer seasons in his career. Who’s expecting 30/30 at the age of 34? Seriously. crickets
What have we learned from this exercise? ESPN overrates players then dispatches their experts to tell us to be careful they’re overrated. Do yourself a favor and ignore ESPN. They will hurt you. And they’re owned by Disney. Do you need other reasons?
(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 San Diego Padres preview.)
When evaluating Padres players in terms of fantasy value, it’s important to consider their home park. The Padres play half their games in an environment that stifles offense, particularly home runs. This means that their pitchers tend to perform better than might otherwise be expected, while hitters tend to perform worse. Each individual is different, of course, but this is a good thing to remember in general.
What follows is a position-by-position look at the 2008 Padres. I’ve also included a few (hopefully useful) tips at the end. Enjoy!
Catcher
Josh Bard is an above-average hitter at his position. The downside, from a fantasy perspective, is that his 2006 power surge appears to have been a fluke. Bard hits a lot of doubles and draws a lot of walks, both of which are more useful in real life than to your fantasy team.
Michael Barrett was a train wreck after coming to San Diego in 2007. He looked lost at the plate last season, but he’s only 31 years old and he was a top-shelf offensive catcher from 2004 to 2006, so he could rebound. Barrett’s playing time is uncertain, though, and Petco Park is a tough place to re-establish one’s offensive game.
First Base
Although Adrian Gonzalez probably is a better hitter than, say, Brad Hawpe, fantasy owners must temper their expectations. If Gonzalez played half his games in Milwaukee or Philadelphia, he’d be an instant MVP candidate. But he doesn’t play in either of those places, so don’t pay him like he does.
Second Base
The Keystone corner can’t get much worse for the Padres than it was in 2007, when Marcus Giles and Geoff Blum manned the position. Newcomer Tadahito Iguchi’s numbers appeared to be in decline last year. Then he moved to the Phillies late in the season and got to experience the joy of hitting at Citizens Bank Park. He won’t have that advantage in 2008. Like Bard, Iguchi provides greater value to his team than to yours.
Third Base
Kevin Kouzmanoff is a nice little secret. His overall numbers as a rookie were depressed by a miserable start, but from May 7 onward, he hit .309/.362/.511. Kouzmanoff is a good bet to hit .300 or knock 25 home runs in 2008 – possibly both.
Shortstop
Petco Park is tough on all hitters, but it destroys Khalil Greene. If he played all his games on the road, he’d be Alfonso Soriano at shortstop. But he doesn’t, and he isn’t. His lack of plate discipline won’t hurt you as much as it will hurt the Padres. Greene is good for 20-25 homers, maybe more, but his batting average seems to be stuck in the .250s. If he can get one more hit a week, Greene will vault into the elite shortstop category. If not, he’ll remain what he is – pretty good, but not great.
Left Field
Scott Hairston hit everything thrown his way after coming to the Padres late last summer. The question with Hairston is whether he can sustain that over a full season. He’s never been given the chance, but he once was a top prospect and he’s still only 28. Assuming Hairston stays healthy and can build on last year’s success, he looks like a good breakout candidate to me.
Chase Headley is a third baseman who has been moved to left field because of Kouzmanoff. All indications are that the transition has been successful, and it’s just a matter of time before Headley contributes for the big club. If he doesn’t win the starting left field job, he may start the season at Triple-A. Long term, think Jeff Cirillo with a little more power, or maybe Mike Lowell lite.
Center Field
Jim Edmonds is 38 years old and coming off two straight injury-marred campaigns. His skills appear to be in steep decline, and at this point, he’s good for the occasional walk and home run, but probably not much else. There are better options for your fantasy team, and if you can’t find them, you need to look harder.
Right Field
Like Edmonds, Brian Giles is in the twilight of a fine career. Turn back the clock 5 years, and the Padres have themselves two-thirds of the best outfield in baseball. Without a time machine, though, they have a couple guys hoping for one last good season.
Starting Pitcher
In 2007, Jake Peavy had the year we all thought he was capable of having. He stayed healthy and mostly dominated, winning the Cy Young Award in the process. The one area where Peavy could improve is efficiency. Because he throws so many pitches, he never made it through the eighth inning last year. Even so, he is a true ace for a big-league team as well as for a fantasy team. Expect more of the same: 15+ wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 200+ strikeouts.
Chris Young was establishing himself as one of the NL’s elite pitchers when he landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain in late July. Young didn’t miss much time, but when he came back, it was without his command. Like Peavy, he is inefficient and sometimes has trouble late in games. A return to pre-injury levels (1.82 ERA) is unrealistic, but assuming Young is healthy, he should continue to be a great option for the front of a fantasy rotation.
Greg Maddux doesn’t get old; old gets Maddux. Lame jokes aside, put the veteran right-hander down for his usual: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, and an army of frustrated hitters.
The last time Randy Wolf made as many as 20 starts in a season was 2004. The last time he posted an ERA below 4.00 was 2002. Petco Park may help with the latter, but whether the 31-year-old southpaw can make it through a full season remains to be seen.
Mark Prior is the nominal #5 starter but isn’t expected to pitch until late-May at the earliest. He worked 43 2/3 innings in 2006 and none last year. Expect nothing and maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Justin Germano got off to a great start as a rookie in 2007 before the league figured out that his stuff is eminently hittable. He’s a stopgap solution who, given the track records of Wolf and Prior, may be asked to do too much. Again.
Relief Pitcher
Trevor Hoffman basically had two bad outings last year. Unfortunately they came at the worst possible times and in full view of a national audience that ordinarily ignores the Padres. Pundits have been prognosticating Hoffman’s decline for years. At age 40 and with less margin for error than ever (keep your eye on the shrinking K/9), he may finally prove them right.
One wonders what the New York Mets might have been able to accomplish last year had they not chosen to discard Heath Bell. The right-hander throws hard, throws strikes, and proved extremely durable in his first full big-league season. Bell may not be able to duplicate his monster 2007, but even if he slips a little, he should hold plenty of value. Bell may get some save opportunities when Hoffman needs a day off and could eventually take over the closer role in San Diego.
There is no more extreme groundball pitcher in baseball than Cla Meredith. He elevated his pitches during the middle months of 2007 but finished strong. Meredith won’t get any save opportunities and has little or no value to fantasy players. If you play in sim leagues, e.g., Scoresheet, Meredith can be a useful part of your bullpen.
Parting Thoughts
I know what I’ve said about Petco Park, but Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff really are terrific young hitters. Gonzalez has done it two years in a row now, and he’s still only 26. His batting average dropped a bit last season, but his walk rate and isolated power improved.
As for Kouzmanoff, he has a great approach at the plate and hits everything hard. Don’t be fooled by his slow start last year. One thing the Padres like about him is the way he handled himself during that stretch. As a rookie, he easily could have gotten down on himself and lost his job, but if anything was bothering him, he never let it show. He will produce at third base.
It’s a small sample, but Hairston looked legit down the stretch last year. If I had to pick one breakout candidate on offense for the Padres, he’d be the guy.
On the pitching side, Peavy is a no-brainer. Keep a close eye on Bell, too, as he’ll be first in line if Hoffman falters. Even if Hoffman doesn’t falter, he’s good for no more than 60 innings these days, which means some saves could land in Bell’s lap.
Finally, Padres pitchers did a miserable job of holding runners in 2007. Young and Maddux were the biggest culprits. Young has been working on this aspect of his game in spring training, but it’s hard to say how much that will pay off during the season. Base stealers who play in the NL West could have a slight advantage over their counterparts who don’t get to face the Padres as often. It might not be enough to make a difference, but you may want to keep this in the back of your mind.
Just drafted in my ‘pert 5×5 15 team league that was organized by RotoRob. I drafted 13th. Peavy was just taken and I took Pujols. I asked for comments. One comment was, “BALLSY,” another was, “I was gonna if you didn’t,” another was, “…A first rounder has to be no worries.” Pujols? Question marks? Well, I got him. Anyway, here’s the rest of my team:
1. (13) Albert Pujols
2. (18) Carlos Lee
3. (43) Troy Tulowitzki
4. (48) Nick Markakis
5. (73) Aaron Harang
6. (78) Jeff Francoeur
7. (103) Rich Hill
8. (108) Francisco Cordero
9. (133) Yunel Escobar
10. (138) Chad Cordero
11. (163) Corey Patterson
12. (168) Adam Wainwright
13. (193) Kerry Wood
14. (198) Kevin Kouzmanoff
15. (223) Carlos Ruiz
16. (228) Mike Jacobs
17. (253) Edison Vólquez
18. (258) Scot Shields
19. (283) Melky Cabrera
20. (288) Brian Fuentes
21. (313) Chuck James
22. (318) Jon Rauch
23. (343) Tom Gordon
These notes were jotted down during the draft. Cause that’s how I do:
1. I’m taking Pujols because I have balls. And I’m stupid.
4. Nick Markakis – The Greek God of Roto may just end up on every one of my teams and I’m not complaining. He’s going 30/20 and I’m going to douse myself in Ouza in October. Some schmohawks I didn’t want that went in this round: Mauer, Roberts, Byrnes, Kinsler (I like Kinsler but not this high) and Carlos Guillen.
5. I really need a pitcher. Please let Haren fall to me. Nope, just taken. Okay, come on Harang… Come to Papa. I don’t care if Dusty is gonna throw you out there for the twelth inning of a tie game…. Damn, it’s a pitching run and I don’t know if Harang’s falling to me…Got him. Now I don’t feel so good about it. Oh, well. Now I need another bat.
6. Just took Francouer and was seriously contemplating Josh Hamilton. Guess who got taken right after Francouer? Farkin’ hey. Oh, well. I think Hamilton is riskier than Franceour. Besides, he goes by Frenchy and he hit a crapload of doubles (40) last year.
7. I’m taking a 2nd basemen, unless Weeks, Kent and Johnson are still on the board. Then I’m taking a closer. BTW, there’s been very few closers taken. Guess everyone’s reading Matthew Berry. That’s sad. As I write that someone takes Lidge. I like Lidge. This is too high. Then Saito. Okay, here’s the closer run I heard about on ESPN messageboards. All the 2nd basemen are still on the board and I’m not folding to the closer run. Watch me zig while everyone else is zagging. Rich Hill!
8. Ok, I have to take a closer now. Otherwise, I’m punting.F-Cord. Eh. Nothing else to say. First pick of mine that I’m not crazy about, but I just couldn’t take Hoffman. He enters to Hell’s Bells, that was popular when Tim from RotoRob was young. Tim’s old. From what I hear. I don’t know.
9. Okay, really need a 2nd baseman now. Fo reals. Not to mention, my team is slow. I think I’m gonna reach for Yunel cause I don’t trust Matsui with his anus problems. Okay, that was a severe reach on my part, but I needed a 2nd baseman and Kent’s not doing it for this team I’m building.
10. And now I have both Cordero brothers and Hoffman’s still on the board. And as I type that, Hoffman’s gone.
12. I have a feeling I’m getting Wainwright on this team too. Hmmm… Maybe the Cards will be good this year. Yeah, I don’t believe that either. But got him.
13. In honor of IowaCubs, a frequent commenter, I took Kerry Wood. You’re welcome.
14. BTW, I really need a 3rd baseman. (BTW II, Everyone filled up on 3rd base so I was able to hold off for a long time.) It’s important to keep an eye on every other team’s needs. Okay, school’s out.
15. Guess who’s coming next? If Ruiz is there, he’s mine. Oddly enough, Varitek is still on the board again. And I’m not taking him again.
16. And I got Mike Jacobs again. Okay, I’m done with hitting for a little while. Unless someone really falls.
17. Just looked at who is left out of the starters. Well… They are saying good things about Volquez, right? Pickins’ are slim. It’s between Garza, Marcum and Volquez. Gonna have to take the upside this late. Wow, I’m going to be watching a lot of Reds games this year. Some picks I liked this round: Accardo, Matt Diaz, Franklin Gutierrez, JD Drew and my pick. Some picks I didn’t like: Colby Rasmus and Homer Bailey.
18. I was between Okajima, Fuentes and Shields and I went for the track record. Not sure I don’t want this pick back. But Zumaya and Arroyo went right before him and I like my pick better than those two. Now I’m praying Manny Parra gets back to me. Wow, that was quick. Two picks later he went.
19. I was between Marcum and Melky. I really needed a starter but Melky was falling too far. Wouldn’t you know it, Marcum gets taken right after Melky.
22. I was between Shawn Hill and Jon Rauch. Briefly considered how awful it must be to be a Nats fan then went with Rauch.
23. All done in 2 hours. Phew, this league went really fast. Actually, thank God it’s over because I had to take Tom Gordon with my last pick. Well, I didn’t have to, but he is closing in Lidge’s absence. So maybe I can vulture some saves in the beginning of the year. It was between him and… I’m not saying because I might want to grab him off of waivers.
Overall thoughts:
This team feels really solid if my projections come to fruition. Unfortunately, I have a lot riding on Pujols’s elbow. I need 100/30/100 from him otherwise I might be scrambling. So what do you think of my team?
Participated in my first league last night. It was a 16 team H2H league, which had all kinds of fangled rules, hitting (R, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, TB, AVG) and the other (IP, W, CG, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, QS) that was organized by Bleeding Blue and Teal: a Seattle Mariners blog. Am I secretly a fan of the Mariners? Nope, but I hadn’t joined a H2H league yet and they had an opening so there I was. Since this league is for and by Mariners’ fans, I expected Ichiro to go in the first round (nope), Bedard in the second (yup) and Kenji to be someone’s utility (nope). It turned out to be less “root root for the home team” than I originally thought (though there is a team named, Olerud’s Main Dude). Anyway, here’s my team:
1. (4) José Reyes SS
2. (29) Álex Ríos OF
3. (36) Adam Dunn OF
4. (61) Corey Hart OF
5. (68) Alex Gordon 1B,3B
6. (93) Edwin Encarnación 3B
7. (100) John Maine SP
8. (125) Jeff Kent 2B
9. (132) Jhonny Peralta SS
10. (157) Matt Capps RP
11. (164) Carlos Delgado 1B
12. (189) Adam Wainwright SP
13. (196) Jonathan Broxton RP
14. (221) Brandon Lyon RP
15. (228) Carlos Ruiz C
16. (253) Zack Greinke SP,RP
17. (260) Pat Neshek RP
18. (285) Manny Parra RP
19. (292) Mike Jacobs 1B
20. (317) Jon Rauch RP
21. (324) Franklin Gutiérrez OF
Here’s what I was thinking in various rounds:
1. Can’t believe Reyes is falling to me. He’s an automatic #2 for me, even with this league’s rules. Wow, Pujols went sixth. He’s putting in a good spring, but that injury could be killer. Matt Holliday fell to seventh; that’s who I was planning to take if Reyes didn’t fall to me.
2. 16 teams… Ugh, this is going to take forever to get back to me. (Actually, I thought this every round.) Granderson’s goes 17th? Well, it wouldn’t have been me. Beltran goes 19th, not liking that pick. Peavy 20th, have to like that value, no matter how much I devalue pitching. Bedard goes 22nd (Webb goes 30th); there’s some hometown bias. At 29, I’m more than happy to grab Rios.
3. First off the board in the third round, George Sherrill. Then went—Wait! What? Okay, I probably would’ve taken Percival over Sherrill and maybe 300 other players, but it’s definitely a way to go. (I’ll see if I can get the Sherrill owner to write a guest post about why he didn’t take Jamie Walker in the fourth round to handcuff Sherrill.) Now that I had Reyes and Rios, I felt I needed some wombat, so I went with Dunn. At this point, I started to think I was going to wait a while for pitching and focus on Holds, Saves, ERA and WHIP. Lots of names went this round that I was glad to be no part of: Mauer, Roberts, Byrnes, Russell Martin, Manny and Beckett.
4. I could have gave birth to an elephant in the time it took my to draft again. I went with Corey Hart (61). Markakis went at 57; I was pissed. Atkins went at 59; I was equally po’d. I almost took Konerko or Adrian Gonzalez because I felt like I could have used a bit more pop, but both of these schmohawks have as many negatives as positives with some of the categories we’re playing with in this league.
5. Alex Gordon! Any daily readers of the site knew I was going to take him. There were a lot of names on the board I could’ve opted for. But none gave me the 20/20 balance I see Gordon putting together. If nothing else, my team is balanced. Except of course for my pitching…
7. With the 100th pick overall, I took Maine. Leaguemates seemed amused by this choice, but the only names on the board (pitching-wise) that were close in my book were Hill, Shields, Dice-K and Javier Vazquez. All are in the AL, except Hill. Also, Maine and Hill have the most upside. Here’s Maine’s numbers from last year, 191.0 IPs/15 Wins/1 CG/180 Ks/3.91 ERA/1.27 WHIP/17 QS. At 26 years old, on arguably the best offensive team in the NL? I think I made the right choice. But Hill was very, very close. Shea got a slight nod and the winds at Wrigley scared me away…
13. All I had was Capps (10) at this point for relievers so I figured I needed to be aggressive in trying to get holds and saves with the same guys so I targeted relievers that could conceivably get saves or holds. Worse case scenario being I only get one of the two. Remember this league weighs them equally, so why not take the best guy rather than the one most likely to get saves? So I passed Wood, Gregg, Jones and Borowski for Broxton. (I would have passed on Sherrill here too, but he went in the third round.)
14. Then I grabbed Brandon Lyon next because if his spring training continues into the season Tony Pena’s going to be the closer real soon and Lyon will be relegated to a Holds position. And if Lyon gets some saves, so be it. It’s a win-win. Later, I grabbed Rauch and Neshek. Again, I was always taking the best guy on the board and the guy who will get Holds and could possibly get saves. If I went for Jones, Gagne, Borowski or Gregg there was a chance I would get saves, but I can’t imagine these guys ever becoming the setup men.
15. Carlos Ruiz! Do I have to say more? At 228? Are you kidding me? Joking aside, Varitek was taken right after him and I almost took Varitek but… I love me some Ruiz. Here comes 17/10. Okay, maybe 14/7, but I’ll take it.
19. Mike Jacobs with the 292nd pick? I can’t imagine how he fell that far considering how deep this league is, but there he was. Honestly, I try to avoid hitters towards the end of a draft, but when Jacobs is looking at you almost 300 picks in, you gotta.
20. Another hitter? Yes, but Franklin Gutiérrez is 25 and about to get the right field job on one of the best offensive AL teams. Gutiérrez could go 70/20/80/.270/20 in the ninth hole. Not to mention how deep this league was, some of the names that were picked at the end of this draft were Kendall, Jack Wilson, Tony Gwynn (I think Junior), Noah Lowry (scheduled to start throwing in a month) and some catchers (for people who punted).
Tonight’s an ‘pert league with a bunch of fantasy writers so I’ll be filling you again on Thursday. Until then, how do you think I did on this draft?
(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Boston Red Sox preview.)
If you had asked me a month ago, did I think the Boston Red Sox could win a World Series again in 2008, I probably would have said yes. And why not? The Sox kept the core of the 2007 World Championship Team (unlike 2004, when Pedro, Johnny Damon and Derek Lowe were allowed to leave…) and did not keep themselves so crazy busy running around in the off-season that they are exhausted (OK, Queer Eye for the Straight Guy WAS semi-amusing…) and, with the exception of some of the starting rotation being a little older (Tim Wakefield and Curt Schilling are both 41 years old) it is basically the same team (Doug Mirabelli notwithstanding…)And then all hell breaks loose–and Curt Schilling is out at least until the All-Star Break, if not forever, Josh Beckett throws a warm up pitch last weekend and comes up lame, Coco Crisp hasn’t played in nearly two weeks because of a groin injury, and Julio Lugo just started playing after missing more than a week with back problems of his own…
And yes, most of these are normal occurrences that happen during the spring, and if the Sox had another 2 weeks of Spring Training, like everyone else (except for Oakland) it probably would not have the same urgency. But since the Sox are looking at a 17-hour plane ride this Wednesday, plus playing their 1st two games of the 2008 campaign a little more than a week from now, its a huge deal, especially the Josh Beckett injury. Fortunately, he has started a rehab program to get him back into the rotation as soon as possible. Also, with the beginning of the season structured as it is, the Sox can go with a starting rotation of 4 for some time…hopefully enough time to get Josh back 100%.
That being said, here are my thoughts with regard to the 2008 version of the Boston Red Sox:
Needs to Improve: JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, and Manny Ramirez: JD Drew (not including the Grand Slam in the post season) and Julio Lugo were abysmal last year. Yes, Drew managed to stay healthy (relatively speaking) and he is a very good right fielder (sorry, Trot), but Julio Lugo is even worse than advertised (19 errors, .968 fielding % and a 237 BA with 8 homers). Supposedly he had some sort of flu-thing going in the off-season in 2006 that caused his downturn in ’07–we’ll see. Coco has never really lived up to the hitting hype he had with Cleveland, although he did make some spectacular plays in CF. Manny, coming off one of the worst seasons of his career (.296 with 20 homers), is supposedly all focused and coming off the best off-season training ever.
Can they repeat: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Hideki Okajima, and Josh Beckett: Everyone knows the story about Dustin Pedroia–Horribly awful in April (batting .179, and everyone is screaming for his head) he then goes on the a hot streak for the rest of the year, (.317 with 8 homers) including the post season (where he played with a broken hamate bone in his hand) and wins Rookie of the Year. Kevin Youkilis, his 1st year all year at 1st base, breaks the record for error-less games at 1st, and wins his 1st Golden Glove, also has his best year at the plate (.288 with 16 homers), Mike Lowell, (can you believe he was the “take him or you can’t have Josh Beckett” guy?) ANOTHER career season with 120 RBI’s and a .324 BA.
Then we have Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA), the only 20 game winner in all of MLB last year (and the only 20 win season of his career), should have started the All-Star Game, and you always felt surprised when he was on the mound and the Sox lost–he was as much of a lock as anyone could be in baseball…except for Okajima. Everyone thought the Sox signed this guy to keep Daisuke Matsuzaka company! He ends up surpassing Daisuke, going 3-2 with 2.22 ERA–and completely baffling hitters with his odd delivery…
Can they maintain: Jacoby Ellsbury, Big Papi, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Mike Timlin, and Jonathan Papelbon: Jacoby Ellsbury only played 33 regular season games with the Red Sox in 2007–and managed a .353 BA, 3 homers, and to steal 9 bases–he then gets into 7 games in the post season when Coco Crisp became a black sucking hole in the batting order, and proceeds to hit .360 on the big stage. He can’t possibly sustain THOSE kinds of numbers over 162+ games in a full season–can he?
Only Big Papi can hit .332 with 35 homers and be considered to have a “off year”. Dealing with the pain of a bad knee pretty much all season, David Ortiz hopes to put up more Papi-like monster numbers this year, as he is 100% recovered from him off-season knee surgery… Jon Lester, a year removed from his cancer ordeal, and winner of Game 4 of the 2007 World Series, Jon has said he has more strength and focus this year, and wants everyone to forget he is “the guy who had cancer”. He has a 4-0 season last year; with some flashes of brilliance. If he can reduce the “nibbling” around the plate, punish the strike zone, and stop getting himself into the high pitch counts, he will be better than just a #5 starter…
Everyone forgets that Tim Wakefield was kicking some serious butt last year before being felled with shoulder issues that kept him off the post season roster. Tying his highest win total (17) Wake chews up innings–and last year was no exception. He started 31 games and threw 189+ innings in 2007. Now that his shoulder issues are behind him, I expect Wake will give the Sox exactly what he always does–and anchor in the rotation–and 12-15 wins–and about 200 innings…Mike Timlin just turned 42, is going into his 6th year with the Sox, says this is his last year, and has made more than 1000 appearances. This guy has NOTHING left to prove. And while he always seems to let that inherited runner score, there has been many times when he has been on that mound, and you just KNEW no batter was going anywhere–except back to the dugout…
Speaking of keeping people in the dugout, is it possible Jonathan Papelbon can get BETTER? Everyone was so sure he would be in the starting rotation at the beginning of last year, until he wasn’t. And being careful with him actually worked, and he excelled in 2007, when he had 37 saves and a minuscule 1.85 ERA…and this year he has added a 3 pitch, a slider to his repertoire…
The Wild Cards: Curt Schilling, Manny Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz: Will Curt pitch ever again? He is on the infamous “rest and rehab plan” and only time will tell if it was the way to go. Manny Delcarmen has flashes of brilliance, and some say, some of the best pure stuff in the bullpen. If he can he harness that, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Clay Buchholz was shut down at the end of 2007 with shoulder fatigue–but in the off-season he added 10 lbs. of muscle and trained to be able to handle a full season of pitching. Can he be the phenom everyone hopes he can be?
Players in a class of their own: Jason Varitek: ‘Tek will never be a force at the plate (.255 with 17 homers in 2007. But behind the plate is entirely different story. His preparation and attention to detail has earned him the respect of pitchers, catchers and players all over major league baseball. No one is better than handling a staff mixed with veterans and rookies alike–NO ONE…without him, Sox don’t win–nuff said.
Everyone else: The mix of bench players (Alex Cora, Sean Casey, Kevin Cash, et al) and the bullpen guys (Kyle Snyder, Julian Tavarez, Javier Lopez, et al), will play a huge part in how rested, loose and focused the rest of team is. The backup guys need to get it done as well, whether its giving rest to a player in need of a day, or stepping up when someone goes down with an injury.
Making predictions with regard to how teams end up when its all over is usually not my thing–162 games is a LONG time. Anything and everything can happen–and usually does. Despite that, I do think the Sox will be in the mix again come the post-season. But there are a lot of very good teams out there (Cleveland, Tigers, etc) so by no means do I feel its a forgone conclusion the Sox will get the World Series.
But I am hoping…
Christine Boston Red Thoughts
Red Sox Commentary from a Red-Headed Boston Fan in Yankeeland
