Fantasy Baseball Advice

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers preview.)

By the end of last year, the big story with the Dodgers veteran players versus the young talent that the Dodgers were stocked with. This culminated in the completely absurd story that Matt Kemp wasn’t immature because he moved a trash can in front of his locker. In the end though, the kids won. At least four of the Dodgers starters on opening day this year will have less than two years of big league service time, and it looked like it was going to be five until Andy LaRoche was injured in Spring Training. Juan Pierre likely starting over Andre Ethier is still being used as an example of the Dodgers veteran fetish, but is there any team in the world that would bench a guy when they still owe him 36 million dollars? I wasn’t sure if the Dodgers were really committed to their youth movement at the end of last season, but after an offseason where no valuable young players were traded away, I believe that the Dodgers front office is on the right track.

Now, the Dodgers problem isn’t finding play time for their young players, it’s about knowing how the team will perform. Close to every starter for the Dodgers carries some major baggage with him, all of which has season ruining potential. Rafael Furcal was absolutely terrible last year after never really recovering from colliding with Jason Repko in Spring Training. Can he be a top level shortstop again? Jeff Kent is being expected to be a middle of the order run producer yet again this year, but only 10 players have ever had an OPS over .800 in 500 plate appearances at age 40. James Loney is almost a lock hit over .300 this year, but does he have enough power for a first baseman? You can point to his home run every 23.47 at bats in his big league career and say yes, but you could also look at his home run every 66.55 at bats in the much more hitter friendly AAA Las Vegas and say no.

Matt Kemp is seen as the Dodgers biggest hitting prospect, but his batting average last year was a fluke, a .411 batting average on balls in play is completely unsustainable, and his power is almost entirely hypothetical. Outside of Vero Beach, the most home
run friendly park in all of baseball, Kemp has never hit more than 17 home runs in a full season. Without much plate patience, Kemp can hit .280 and be a below average hitter. You can still probably pencil him in for close to a 20-20 season, but he hasn’t shown you can count on him to carry team.

The pitching staff faces similar questions. Brad Penny had a miracle season last year that saw his strikeout and walk rates plummet from his career norms, but was still one of the most valuable pitchers in the NL because he allowed only nine home runs last year. Since it’s very difficult for even extreme ground ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park like that, Penny’s numbers will probably take a huge step down last year and ruin more than one fantasy team. Derek Lowe has been very consistent in his three seasons with the Dodgers, but he didn’t throw 200 innings for his first time as a starter and could be the sign that he’s starting to age. Can Esteban Loaiza bounce back from injury and pitch effectively without Oakland’s spacious outfield? Will Jason Schmidt and Hong-Chih Kuo be able to ever throw a pitch while healthy? Much like the offense, almost every member of the Dodgers pitching staff has a huge question mark around him.

The Dodgers major acquisitions this offseason continue the trend. Andruw Jones has almost wrapped up his spot in the Hall Of Fame at age 31, but last year he was less valuable offensively than Juan Pierre last year and reported to camp looking like he misinterpreted his doctor’s instructions to drink nothing but milkshakes. Hiroki Kuroda received the highest annual salary out of any pitcher in this year’s free agent class, but he lacks the numbers in Japan that Daisuke Matsuzaka, or even Kei Igawa had. There’s a good chance that he won’t be all that effective here in the states. These questions keep adding up and a little bad luck can easily break the team.

Despite all of the belief that proven veterans provide stability the only consistent players the have this year all fall under the less than two years of service time umbrella. Dodgers this year will be part of the Dodgers young core. Russell Martin has already established himself as one of the top four catchers in baseball and shows no sign of stopping. Chad Billingsley solved the control problems that plagued his rookie season and could very well be the Dodgers best starter this year. If Andre Ethier can get playing time, he can provide average numbers for a corner outfielder with strong defense. Jonathan Broxton is arguably the most dominant setup man in baseball and would probably be the closer on 25 other teams. The Dodgers need to ride players like these to get through some of the issues that are sure to crop up this year.

The Dodgers have so many players with upside that it’s almost impossible for them to all fail at once. If a few of them succeed, the team will put up a win total in the high 80s and have a good shot at the NL West pennant. However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the team finished under .500 or won a 100 games, it all depends on how the ball bounces.

Andrew Grant writes about the Dodgers at truebluela.com. He’s a stat dork and is very bad at promoting himself in a two sentence blurb.

Note: Besides providing advice and news on fantasy baseball, we at Razzball created and now sponsor a game where the goal is to manage a team and compile the worst stats. These Historical Spotlights honor those players who would’ve excelled in such a format. See here for more info. See here for the summary of the inaugural 2008 season.

The passing of another Easter seems like a fitting time to resurrect the memory of Ivan DeJesus and his magical Razzball campaign of 1981.

He posted what Wikipedia describes as a ‘Triple Crown loser’ season, finishing last (among batting qualifiers) in all three categories with a .194 AVG, 0 HR, 13 RBI. He added 8 doubles and 4 triples to his 0 HR in 403 AB to finish with an netherworldly slugging percentage of .233.

If you think the 403 AB total was an indication of benching or at least platooning, think again. This was a strike-shortened season. Ivan played in all 106 games. Better yet, he hit leadoff in 59 of them! While Cubs skipper Joey Amalfitano never got another chance to manage a team, his courage in the face of logic and statistics netted him a 13 year gig as Tommy Lasorda’s third base coach. One can only imagine the fun that Tommy and Joey must’ve had eating room-service pasta off hookers’ asses.

Amalfitano also undoubtedly influenced the likes of Dusty Baker and Tony LaRussa, inspiring their man-love for light-hitting middle infielders not named Ozzie Smith.

Ivan DeJesus never was able to repeat the lows he accomplished in this magical season, putting in 3 more merely mediocre offensive seasons before moving onto bench and then coaching/minor league roles.

The infamy of Ivan DeJesus’s 1981 campaign is only overshadowed by his last name - which was a savior to white suburban lads unfamiliar with the dulcet tone of the soft ‘J’ - and his being a martyr to long-suffering Cub fans by accepting a trade to the Phillies shortly after this magical season that netted an aging (but raging) Larry Bowa and a then unknown Ryan Sandberg.

Ivan DeJesus - a Razzball God among men.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks preview.)

Last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks outperformed the sum of their parts, posting the best record in the National League despite being outscored by their opponents. In fantasy baseball, as opposed to the real thing, this is not good: wins are important only as one category of pitching stats, rather than being the only thing that actually counts. How will the team fair this year - and, more importantly from a rotisserie perspective, how will the individual players fair? Rather than picking out the best players - if you don’t already know Brandon Webb is among the best pitchers in the National League, this article won’t help you - here are the ones who are most likely to overperform, underperform, or simply have questionmarks over them.

LIKELY TO IMPROVE
1B Conor Jackson. Definite sleeper potential here. Jackson had an abysmal April, but after that, quietly batted .296 with rate stats that, pro-rated over 162 games, would have been 22 homers and 82 RBI. He has picked up speed over the off-season; while he won’t be Jose Reyes on the basepaths, a few more infield hits are likely, and you could be looking at a .300, 25 HR season. The departure of Tony Clark leaves him the full-time incumbent, though he may lose some starts to Chad Tracy, after he returns.

SS Stephen Drew. ‘Buy low’ is what you are doing here, and Drew is likely to improve, simply because he’s better than the .238 he posted last season - he was a career .299 hitter in the minors. Drew was, to some extent, the victim of bad luck, with his BA on balls in play flukishly low. There aren’t many alternatives on the D-backs roster, so even if he struggles initially, he’s still going to get playing time for Arizona.

RHP Tony Peña. Most of the D-backs bullpen are due to regress back towards the mean this year, but Pena’s big advantage is that he’s the immediate heir apparent for the closer’s spot. If Brandon Lyon falters - and there are a good number of experts who think that he will - Peña will immediately become a lot more valuable. Last year’s Arizona closer, Jose Valverde, led the league in saves, as much because the team gave his so many opportunities, 61 of their 90 wins being by three runs or less. Expect the same this year.

LIKELY TO FADE
LF Eric Byrnes. With mostly a young squad, age is on the side of Arizona, and Byrnes, now aged 32, is the ‘elder statesman’ among the position players. He had a decent 104 OPS+ last year, but that was his best since 2004 and he’s at the age where further improvement is doubtful. Might still be worth picking up for steals - he swiped 50 bags last year - but if you do, trade him by the All-Star break, as his career average in the second half is only .239, more than fifty points worse than during the first half.

LHP Doug Davis. A 4.25 ERA in a hitter’s park like Chase might tempt you, but don’t be fooled, as Davis dodged an awful lot of bullets last season. Non-pitchers batted .294 against him, and his WHIP of 1.59 ranks him just worse than Jose Contreras and Daniel Cabrera, who had ERAs of 5.57 and 5.55 respectively. Davis can still pitch, when he doesn’t walk too many people, but if his control deserts him, the hits which are an inevitable part of his game will lead to too many unsightly box-scores.

WILD CARDS
RHP Randy Johnson. Johnson made only ten starts last year, but posted a decent 3.81 ERA and a very respectable K:BB ratio of 72:13. He’s come off back surgery for the second consecutive season, but his rehab this time round has been longer - he now admits he rushed back in 2007, and that was likely in part responsible for the relapse. Needs 16 wins to reach the magic number of 300, and that will likely drive Johnson. No doubting his competitive urges; don’t expect 30+ starts, but worth having on your bench and picking your spots.

RF Justin Upton. Expectations are high for Upton, with Bill James predicting a line of .278/.353/.496, to go with 19 homers and 74 RBI. To put that prediction of an .849 OPS into context, even an .800 figure by a 20-year old over a full season has only been seen twice in my lifetime [from some guys called Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr...] Much as I would love to see Upton become the third such phenom, I think we’ll have to wait until 2009 to see the full flowering of his unquestionable talents. He’ll be lots of fun to watch, but let some other manager go through the growing pains Upton will endure this year.

3B Mark Reynolds. Pulled up from Double-A after we ran out of third-basemen, Reynolds exploded, batting .459 in his first ten major-league games, including a five-hit night. The rest of the year was like a roller-coaster: Reynolds hit .162 in June, .194 in July, but .342 in August and .300 in the final month. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle. He has genuine power, and 25 HR seems easily achievable, but he will also likely strike out 150 times or more. Will also likely split some time at third with Chad Tracy, but a late-round pick could pay dividends.

Jim McLennan grew up in Britain, but fell in love with baseball because of its statistics, and has followed the D-backs since their home field was just a hole in the ground. He can be found ranting about them, on an almost daily basis, at azsnakepit.com.

Eugenio Velez can:

• Run (118 SBs in the last 2 years in the minors, leads spring training with 13)

Eugenio Velez can maybe:

• Hit with some pop - Had 20 triples and 14 HRs in single A in 2006.
• Hit for some average - Hit around .300 the last two years in A and AA

Eugenio Velez cannot:

• Field very well at 2B or 3B. Probably sucks in the OF too (eligible at 2B only in Yahoo!).
• Who cares?

Eugenio Velez is an awesome sleeper pickup in fantasy baseball because:

• Kevin Frandsen on SF reportedly tore his Achilles’ tendon today, meaning SF only has four real options at 2B and 3B - Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Jose Castillo, and Eugenio Velez.
• Given the other three are average, injury prone, and much more boring to watch than Velez, I think they’ll give Velez at least 4 games a week in April and play him in a couple of positions like the Angels used to do with Chone Figgins.
• Based on the way he’s running, that could mean 10 April SB (imagine him running against Chris Young on SD…he might steal 2nd and 3rd on the same pitch!)

Frankly, I don’t want to waste too much space with this topic. I told readers since January to avoid Granderson and as recently as two weeks ago that you can get greater safety and value with Abreu. I’m not claiming to be Nostra-dumbass and saying I saw Grandy about to be beaned by some crap Phillie pitcher (and, besides Hamels and Myers, they’re all crap). Grandy strikeouts out too much; this is well documented on this site and others. But when I say ‘Granderson’s injured, now deal,’ I don’t mean trade him away. I mean emotionally deal. Boo-freakin-woo, you were the one that drafted him in the third round when you should’ve been grabbing Rios or Markakis. What you should not do…

Trade away Granderson. You’ll never get full value for him right now. Will his hand heal properly? Well, he struck out in the boatloads before, I can’t see an injury to his hand helping, but his speed will still be there when he returns. I see no reason why you still can’ get 17/30. Was it what you were expecting? Maybe not, but it should’ve been closer to what you were expecting. If anything, it’s a buyer’s market. See if the Grandy owner in your league will give you him for Marmol and Accardo or some other trade where you’re treating the Grandy owner like some pig-tailed girl. That’s right; now is the time to buy low on Granderson or wait out this setback.