Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy Hurler breaks down what he thinks 2nd base is going to look like in ’08. Usually, the Hurler and I are pretty copasetic. This time, not such much. I like Cano. The Hurler makes some pretty valid points that are all wrong. He thinks Cano’s fleet-footed with little power and overrated because he plays in the Brawnx. Maybe they are valid? See his list here; stay for the other draft guides.

Brock For Broglio pointed out a very cool thing to me the other day. You can search Baseball-Reference using your search engine bar on your Firefox browser. Very cool.

Rotonomics broke down tiers for ’08 catchers. If you haven’t seen it, worth a look even if we disagree in places. They have Martin over Victor (Disagree). Either way, check it out and tell us how you think they did. Or tell them; don’t be shy.

Finally, Roger Clemens met his accuser today in front of Congress. (SPOILER ALERT!) Roger Clemens took steroids and is now lying about it.

ESPN’s top “analyst,” Eric Karabell, lit a flame nugget under me when he decided to tout Frank Thomas as a big 2008 sleeper. That’s right, the soon-to-be 40 year-old, Toronto DH who limps around the bases. Seems to me that Karabell has been sleeping for the last ten years. You need to be an ESPN Outsider to read the entire Frank Thomas is a “big 2008 sleeper” hooey, but I’ll recycle the relevant rubbish here:

The Big Hurt isn’t young, has a limited ceiling and certainly isn’t the same player who put up Hall of Fame stats for more than a decade, but he’s hardly a bad option at this point. In fact, in one of the January drafts I had, Thomas was my 22nd-round pick, the second to last player I chose. I kept waiting and waiting and nobody wanted the guy. I was stacked on offense, and intended to use my utility spot for steals, but how could I turn down a shot at Thomas?

Utility spot filled with a diminishing-skills 40-year-old? This is mind numbing. Was Dave Roberts already off the board? How about Mike Schmidt? Greg Luzinski?

Karabaloney doesn’t say who was still on the board this late in the draft, but you absolutely have to take an upside guy (LaRoche, Kotchman, Votto, etc.) or round out your pitching with a quality middleman who might get you saves (Rodney, Broxton, Betancourt, etc.). If you take Frank Thomas, you’re just not trying hard enough or paying attention. The Big Limp is not hitting as many fly balls and his average is (updated) around .260 since 2001. Sure, he takes walks, but he should be lifted every time he gets on the basepaths. Watching him run is as painful as watching Claire Danes act. At age forty, if his career continues to decline (which there’s no reason to think it won’t), he’s lucky to go 22-80-.260 with a paltry 60 runs. As Rich Dad might say, that’s a liability not an asset. You’re welcome.

Giving invaluable advice is what we do and all you do is sit there eating your cranberry bran muffin and reading it. Over a hundred of you subscribe to the feed, over 2,000 of you stop by daily. As Juan Encarncion might say, “I can’t see you, but I know you’re there.” Without you, it wouldn’t be half the fun. Okay, maybe it would be half the fun, but definitely not three-quarters of the fun. So to repay me, I’m letting you help me with my keeper team.

Caveats you must know:

It’s a NL-only ten team, five player max keeper, standard $260 budget. Scoring categories are: Offensively — Home Runs, OBP, Runs, RBIs, Sbs, Total Bases. Pitching – ERA, Innings, Strikeouts Minus Walks, Saves, Wins, WHIP. I refuse to pay more than $30 for any single player and no more than $100 total on my pitching staff. It’s my oldest keeper league and the winner gets close to two grand, so, ya know, pay attention. Onto the keeper letter to you:

You,

First off, great reading of my site! In the last two years, I’ve traded away Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Shane Victorino and Hanley Ramirez for nothing. There might be more numbskulled moves, but I’m drunk trying to dull the pain of past blunders. Guess you can also see why I’m soliciting advice. Can’t do much worse! So going into 2008, I have few options. Not “a” few, just few. For $29, I’m keeping Matt Holliday. This is a bargain in our league, or any for that matter. Plus, he falls below my imaginary Mason-Dixon $30 line. Now for the cream of the rest of my crap:

Pedro Martinez at $11. I think he’s got 130 inning/10 wins/ 3.35/good Ks-BB/good WHIP. This seems like a no-brainer to me for $11, but I have my doubts and may wait until spring training’s assessment of the number three man on the Mets.

Jose Valverde at $10. I wish I was able to convince myself not to keep him, but at $10 I’m having a hard time. He’s a nightmare when he explodes, Berkman’s all but said he’s not welcome and I don’t like paying $10 for any closer. I think he could get 35 saves and decent peripherals, but I’m not sold.

Jeff Francis at $12. I don’t think there’s an argument available that could convince me to keep Francis for $12. Believe I can toss him back and not pay more than $10 if I want him again, which I’m not totally against.

Yorvit Torreabla at $5. I’ve sung my praises already for Torreabla. Probably had nice things to say because I’m trying to convince myself he’s worth $5. I’ll probably keep him since I’d like to have catching squared by the draft because the next “great” NL catcher available at the draft may be LoDuca. LoNoThankYou.

Kevin Frandsen at $5. He intrigues me. In little September time as Durham got the bench, Frandsen hit 5 homers and stole 4 bases. Unfortunately, his minors’ numbers say to expect less and he has a lot of minors’ numbers, since he’ll be 26 in May. Still for $5; I might take a flier. Any Giants fans out there that could shed some light on this slap hitter with no speed?

John Patterson at $5. I think I can get him back for close to $5. There you have it; my team sucks.

Yours,
Me

P.S. When’s Bo Bice’s new album coming out? Can’t wait!

Going through this list really depressed me. If anyone has any thoughts, please comment below.

by Lou Poulas of Fantasy Insider Online

The key to any draft - whether it is auction style, scratch, or keeper - is to find value where your competitors don’t see it. Each year owners scour the web and other print publications for information on sleepers, injuries, and any type of data they can get their hands on to help weed through the hundreds of available players to discover who’ll breakout in the coming year.

This is at best a painstaking exercise at the worst a fruitless one. Each publication has their own ideas and frankly they don’t always do a great job of backing up their beliefs. Sometimes they even contradict each other.

An alternative way to look for value is through gauging your competitor’s belief in certain players, and anticipate where they will fall in the draft. A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole. Statistics fluctuate annually (sometimes through luck, other times due to legitimate reasons such as injuries) and for established players most of it is just noise. A player may simply have a good or bad luck year.

A quick way to get at this data is to compare the Fantasy Rank of the previous year to their projected rank to the upcoming season. Large differences often signify where an owner may over or undervalue a player, and knowing this allows better planning for your draft. I’ve identified some batters who are likely to be valued incorrectly.

Overvalued – These players are likely to be drafted earlier than they should be. They still may be good players, even great, but don’t plan your draft strategy on obtaining their services.

Aaron Rowand - At 29 years of age, Rowand had his career year in 2007, setting career highs in R, 2B, HR, RBI, and OBP. A great rule of thumb is to never pay a premium for players coming off a career year as they are almost always going to disappoint. Rowand is no different. If you need more reasons to avoid him, remember he’s leaving his bandbox of a park (Citizens Bank) for San Francisco which is average at best. Plus, and more importantly, he’ll be surrounded by one of the worst everyday lineups in baseball.

Magglio Ordonez – I like Ordonez, he’ll certainly be a good player this year, but too much of his value in 2007 was in due high batting average (.363). He is a career .312 hitter with a previous high of .320 and in 2008 projects to a line of .308, 85 R, 20 HR, 94 RBI which is more in line with a top-20 Outfielder than the Top-3 version he was in 2007.

Mike Lowell – I admit I dislike Lowell and usually avoid him at all costs. This didn’t work out so well for me last year, but it will work out fine for me in ’08:

2007: .324 AVG, 79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, 8th Ranked 3B
2008: .283 AVG, 68 R, 15 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, 18th Ranked 3B

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

-20: Ichiro Suzuki, OF (17, 37)
-20: Randy Winn, OF (40, 60)
-19: Eric Byrnes, OF (2, 21)
-11: Shane Victorino, OF (29, 40)
-10: Placido Polanco, 2B (9, 19)
-10: Casey Blake, 3B (12, 22)
-6: JJ Hardy, SS (9, 15)
-5: Khalil Green, SS (6, 11)

Undervalued – the heart of every winning season is finding the draft day steal.

Nick Swisher – The new Chicago White Sox center fielder had a down year in 2007, batting just .265 while achieving close the bear minimum of counting stats required for a fantasy outfielder – 78 R, 84 RBI, 22 HR. With no speed, Swisher ranked the 38th best in the OF in 2007.

2008 looks to be a bit different. Why? Swisher is better than what he showed last year and is moving from an extreme pitchers park to an above average hitters park. His projected stats are improved almost across the board t0 91 R, 94 RBI, 30 HR. His batting average still figures to be low (.264) but this projection makes him a top 20 outfielder.

Alfonso Soriano – Many, including myself, had Soriano ranked 1st coming into last season and he never did live up to expectations, even when on the field. He missed almost a month of playing time, but even projected over 160 games his 2007 stats don’t electrify – 39 HR, 114 R, 83 RBI, 23 SB. Very good of course, but not worthy of a 1st overall pick.

Fast forward to 2008. Owners still have sour tastes in their mouths having spent $40+ on him last year, and are likely ready to stay away this draft day. His projections are still great though – 35 HR, 97 RBI, 91 R, 22 SB. Watch him fall a bit and grab him early in the second round.

Miguel Tejada – We can all agree Tejada is no longer the elite shortstop that he was a few years ago. Coming off an injury plagued and disappointing 2007, Tejada finds himself with a new team and ready to start anew. He is 32 years old and not likely to completely self destruct. For fantasy owners, the better news is that his counting stats were held down last year due to his missed playing time. He hit 18 HR, with 72 R and 81 RBI making him a lower tier option at shortstop.

His projections are solid - .297 AVG, 76 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 4 SB and perhaps more importantly his competition will not be as good. Khalil Greene, Orlando Cabrera, JJ Hardy, Julio Lugo, Jhonny Peralta, and Edgar Renteria were all ranked higher than him last year but project to be ranked worse than him this year. Let your fellow owners draft this crew before Tejada, and a few rounds later get the same value for less cost.

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

+19: Andruw Jones, OF (31, 12)
+16: Vernon Wells, OF (42, 26)
+9: Rafael Furcal, SS (15, 6)
+7: Troy Glaus, 3B (22, 15)
+5: Miguel Tejada, SS (14, 9)
+5: Tad Iguchi, 2B (19, 14)
+5: Aramis Ramirez, 3B (10, 5)
+5: Josh Fields, 3B (16, 11)
+4: Alex Gordon, 3B (17, 14)

Final Note: Earlier I said, “A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole.” This only works for established players and you should of course pay specific attention to players at the very beginning or very end of their careers.

You got some sleepers yesterday. Now you want rookies. What, you want this year’s Ryan Braun? Well, you may have to wait another lifetime because The Hebrew Hammer set the all-time rookie slugging percentage record at .634. These things don’t happen every year. More often than not, you get rookie numbers like Delmon Young put up. Respectable, but nothing more than 5th outfielder type stuff. Just don’t overpay for some of these guys and you’ll be fine. Risk averse? Draft Lyle Overbay and come in fourth in your league. Better yet, draft Chad Tracy and come in 7th. Better still, have your niece draft your team for you. If you’re in a keeper league, you absolutely must draft a few of these 2008 rookies. In advance, you’re welcome.

Joey Votto – Opposite field power in a hitter’s park? Yes, please. All indications point to Votto having the 1st base job in ’08. Dusty Baker at the helm? Okay, Votto might get 120 games in. Baker thwarted Murton’s growth and he could do it again, but Votto looks special. Minors numbers, a near .900 OPS. 1st year projections: .285-20-75

Geovany Soto – I got called out for excluding Soto on my top twenty catchers draft list; I also have money riding on Kristy Joe winning Rock of Love (she looks like a long shot at best) and had Fidel Castro in my ’07 death pool, so I’m not perfect. I’m starting to come around on Soto and he’s looking more and more like he needs to be drafted in every mixed league. Got a PCL MVP under his belt, plus power in Wrigley — fifteen homers might be an underestimate. Still use caution, but Soto might be a great steal on draft day. Projections: .270-17-65

Manny Parra – I’m high on Parra, as he’s already turned up on one of my sleeper lists. Grab rookie pitchers with nasty stuff when the league doesn’t know them, then use extreme caution in their second year when they hit their adjustment period (Jered Weaver in ’07). Projections: 8-3/3.30/1.22/130 over 140 innings. If he’s not in the rotation in April, just wait for Sheets to get injured.

Daric Barton – At 22, I think he’s still way too young to make an impact in mixed leagues, but in AL-only keepers, you gotta grab him. He should be a great one in two years tops; his eye is right out of the Moneyball mold. A top twenty pick overall by 2012 (when, obviously, you will be doing all of your drafting in flying cars). This year’s projections: .290-15-70.

Clay Buchholz – The other day a Sox fan emailed me this, “One word – BuchholzBeckettBuchholzBeckettBuchholzBeckettBuchholzBeckett!” Ah, Southies. Buchholz has nasty stuff. An Oswaltian 12-6 that falls off the table, a major league ready changeup combined with a low-90s fastball. AL East is not too kind to pitchers, but he could make an impact this year with a spot in the rotation, which he’ll probably have. Projections: 13-6/4.25/1.20/140 in 160 innings.

Joba Chamberlain – Can’t have a Sox mention without a Yankees follow-up. It’s Constitutional. Obviously, Joba was filthy in ’07 as the 8th inning man. Can he do it again? Sure, but probably as a middle reliever again. At least for part of the year. Does this mean you should avoid him? Nah. As you can see from our 2007 Player Rater, lots of value from solid middle relievers. Projections: 8-2/2.25/1.00/115 in 110 innings.

Cameron Maybin – Wrap your head around this; he was born in 1987. That’s right; the same year Hacksaw Jim Duggan and Iron Sheik were caught doping up in the same car. They were hated rivals! But I digress. Do I see big things for Maybin? Yes, in three years. Let’s just hope he makes the Reggie Abercrombie era a distant memory. Projections: Lots of growing pains and 20 steals. Come back in ’09 mixed-leaguers. NL-Only, take a look. Keepers, you gotta take a flier.

Evan Longoria – Quick stroke with power. Hopefully, the Rays don’t hesitate as long as they did with Upton and Young. Just start the major league clock already! Keep your expectations to a minimal. There will be Mike Seaver-sized growing pains. Projections: .275-15-70

Justin Upton – Now here’s a team that doesn’t hold its prospects in the minors. Technically, he’s not a rookie anymore, but it’s my site and I do as I do. At the time of his call up, Baseball America considered Justin to be the minors’ best prospect. Once upon a time, they awarded the same honor to Gregg Jefferies, back in 1987. (At least it wasn’t Sgt. Slaughter and the Iron Sheik. That would have been devastating.) But, no caveat emptor, Justin’s better than Jefferies. In fact, his ceiling is Miguel Cabrera with the bat and his brother on the bases. 30/30, not this year, but it may not be that far off. I say you should grab him as early as your fourth outfielder in mixed leagues and he’s probably taken already in your keeper. If he’s not and you’re rebuilding, you gotta grab him before someone else. He could be a top twenty player by as early as 2010 (and if you’re following along, that is two years before flying cars). Projections: .290-15-60-25

Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw, Steve Pearce – They don’t seem like they’re ready yet, but I’ve been wrong before… Damn you, Fidel!

Post down in the comments names you think I’ve forgotten.