Fantasy Baseball Advice

With the top ten overall for fantasy baseball here and the top twenty here, we move onto where to draft each positional player. First up is everyone’s favorite position to skip, the catcher. This year is no different than past years — pretty weak. The best that can be said for these twenty is that they are the cream of the crap. Now, I’m all for drafting a catcher late, but somehow I’ve ended up with Brian McCann and Victor Martinez on one of my most important teams the last two years. So, as much as I preach drafting a catcher late, I don’t always practice it. Hey, you have to draft value, no matter the player. If you’d like to take a look at our 2007 Player Rater, it can be found here. Now, your 2008 catchers:

1. Victor Martinez – One and two were real close and I briefly had Russell Martin at number one, but I can’t trust a catcher to run as much as he did last year. Not to mention, Russell slowed down a lot in the 2nd half. Anyway, this is about Martinez and he’s about as solid as you can get in a packed lineup. Projections: 75/25/115/.300

2. Russell Martin – As mentioned above, he slowed down a lot in the 2nd half last year, which means he may try and pace himself more this year and slow down a bit in the 1st half. Not a good thing for someone who’s ranking relies a lot on his steals. Nevertheless, the catching position isn’t great so here’s Russell. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15

3. Brian McCann – I like him more than Mauer; all right, shoot me. Last year, he struggled with an injury to his hand that he sustained while catching, causing his numbers to look a bit down. He’s still very young (24 in 2008) with time to grow into more power. With Andruw gone and a full year of Tex, McCann’s numbers should get a bit of a plus. Projections: 75/25/105/.285

4. Joe Mauer – Mauer yawnstipates me. Everyone know what yawnstipates means? It’s when you have to yawn, but can’t. Basically, you’re constipated with your yawning. You want to yawn at his numbers, but he manages to do just enough so you can’t yawn. Mauer turned down hernia surgery in the offseason that seemed to be required and opted for rest. He’s yet to prove he can give anything other than average and runs. Average and runs are a great yawnstipator. Projections: 85/15/70/.310/10

5. Jorge Posada – With his lineup, Posada can ground out to 2nd and force in 30 RBIs. There’s little upside here, and the average last year was a blip on the radar, but steady as he goes. Projections: 70/20/90/.270

6. Jason Varitek – He’s basically Posada with facial hair. Projections: 70/20/85/.265

7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I tried, but I had to cut and paste that last name. The boy is young and in a hitter’s paradise. This might be a bit of a reach, but it’s the catching position, take a few gambles. Better to look for upside at catcher, than at 1st base. His numbers could exceed Posada’s but he comes with some risk, obviously. Projections: 75/22/85/.285

8. Kenji Johjima – Now you see why Salty was at number six. Folks, your 2008 catchers! Kenji makes me full on yawn. Projections: 60/17/70/.295

9. Ramon Hernandez – Last year he caused you to rah-MOAN. Oofa! But he’s not completely over the hill just yet. Could be a late-round steal on draft day in mixed leagues. Projections: 60/20/85/.275

10. Bengie Molina – The most successful of The Catching Molina Bros. and the only one that should be on a fantasy team. Sorry, Yadir. Projections: 45/20/80/.270

11. Ronnie Paulino – Now things get interesting with some upside. Sure, there’s a chance he’ll bungle a pop-up and get sent to the minors, but, if things work out right, he could give decent numbers. Projections: 60/17/70/.275

12. Carlos Ruiz – More beautiful, beautiful upside. I posted a blog here all about Carlos Ruiz. Suffice it to say, I got high hopes for this sumbitch! Projections: 60/17/70/.275/10

13. Ivan Rodriguez – Here, there’s no upside. Not an ounce of it. Unless he starts juicing again. Weird how his nickname Pudge went from stating the obvious to being sarcastic in four years. Projections: 55/10/65/.285/5

14. Yorvit Torrealba – More upside or as they say in da hood, “Snoops upside your head.” I was worried when it looked like Yorvit might go to the Mets. In Coors, he just might surprise you. Or, at the least, you can do a lot worse in an NL-only league. Projections: 55/12/55/.265/3

15. Johnny Estrada – It could be worse; it could be Paul LoDuca. In the Mets lineup, he should get you some RBIs and runs, but don’t ask for more. Projections: 60/9/70/.285

16. A.J. Pierzynski – Maybe he’ll get into a fight with the Cubs’ Soto. Projections: shit/shit/shit/and more shit. Seriously, if you’re drafting this bozo, you’re in an AL-only league and you know what you’re getting. 60/15/50/.260

17. Paul LoDuca – He says he wants to prove the Mets wrong. I say, how? By hitting 7 homers and twelve doubles. Please. Projections: 50/7/55/.275/3

18. Mike Napoli – There’s some upside here, if Rex Hudler (The Hud!) is right. Cause The Hud sees a thing of beauty. Then again, The Hud would probably draft Garrett Anderson in the second round. Um, well… At least it looks like Napoli’s starting for the Halos. Projections: 45/13/50/.260/7

19. John Buck – John Buck is a rich man’s David Ross. Projections: 40/17/45/.250

20. Michael Barrett – I like Barrett here a lot and considered moving him up. Unfortunately, Barrett’s not even the number one catcher on his team right now. Luckily, Bard is no sure thing. I explained what happened to Barrett once before, but here goes again. In Chicago, he got depantsed by the school bully right in front of the girl he had a crush on. Disgraced, he left town, but it lingered with him for the remainder of the year. Now, he gets some new threads, a new haircut and, at the start of a school year, he can be a new guy. I say Barrett can give as much value as rah-MOAN, if he can put his past behind him and get a starting job. Keep a close eye on how Bard and him shake out, because Barrett can still produce. Projections: 55/17/60/.285, if he plays. Put him in, Black!

Yesterday, we went over our top ten here. Today, we’ll go from 11 thru 20. Usually in the first round you can’t go too wrong, but your fantasy team can be hurt with your second choice, depending on where you draft (and I don’t mean Afghanistan as opposed to Virginia). I’ve seen people reach in the 2nd round and it has hurt them. You want as safe as a pick as possible. Only once in the next ten do I go out on a bit of a limb, but we’ll get to that. Without further ado:

11. Jimmy Rollins – You’re thinking right now, “I wish Jimmy Rollins would be there at the 11th pick, but he won’t.” Let’s not forget his thirty home runs were the best of his career and now he’s going to be 30 years old in 2008. So if someone else takes him earlier, c’est la vie. Yes, that may be the only time c’est la vie has ever been written in a fantasy baseball blog. Projections: 130/22/70/35/.290

12. Ryan Howard – If you took Prince Fielder with your number one pick, you may want to look slightly down the list, but, then again, I would strongly consider having Fielder and Howard on the same team, especially if poundage is a category. Projections: 100/50/140/.275

13. Grady Sizemore – According to Indians’ TV commericals, the Ladies love Grady. Well, you will too, if you can grab him here. He’s about to have a season that will push him into the top ten next year. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30

14. Carl Crawford – He never hit 25 home runs in a season, but he’s still only going to be 27 for 2008. Obviously, you’re coupling this pick with your first round pick, so if you took Jose Reyes in the first round and Crawford is still on the board, you need to pass him up or trade him immediately. But if you took Prince Fielder or Howard, then take Crawford. Projections: 105/15/85/.305/50

15. Johan Santana – I struggled with where to place Santana and I ended up placing him here because I wouldn’t draft him and someone else will before me. So, he’ll probably go sooner than this, but I don’t want him. Not that I think he’ll be bad or that I think he’ll be on the Twins at the start of the season and have trade rumors swirling around him for half the season. I don’t. I just think it’s very important to build around offense early, but that’ll have to wait for another post. Projections (these are likely to change depending on where he ends up in a trade): 18-9/240/3.10/1.06

16. Alfonso Soriano – He’s now 32 in Latin years, which means he’s anywhere from 32 to 40. He slowed down a lot last year and he already has the contract that can keep him in coke and whores for the rest of his life. The years of 30/30 are probably behind him. 115/35/75/.280/20

17. Carlos Lee – El Caballo has put up solid numbers year in and out. He slowed down a bit last year with his lowest steal total since ’02, so that may be a harbinger of things to come, but you want a steady performer in the 2nd round, the horse is your man. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7

18. Alexis Rios – You wanted the limb; here I am out on it. He’ll be 27 in ‘08 and he’s headed for the first round in ‘09. This may feel like you’re reaching, but trust me, you will not be disappointed. You know what you think Carlos Beltran will do? Well, Rios is about to do it. Get him before one of your leaguemates. Projections: 120/32/110/.300/25

19. Vladimir Guerrero – Just back from his third tour of ‘Nam and his knees have never been worse. He’s got enough natural ability that he’ll still be valuable. Just don’t expect steals anymore. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3

20. David Ortiz –The knee may be a thing of the past, but something else might just pop up because he has a body type that doesn’t age well. If you were to pass him by for this reason and his eligibility concerns, I would understand. Projections: 115/40/120/.310

After 20 – Many players, obviously, but notably…

Ryan Braun – He’ll probably go before “after 20,” but that’s fine. You don’t want him in ’08. For every McGwire Rookie of the Year, there’s a dozen woulda-shouldas. Let someone else deal with the possible headache, because as stated here by The Baseball Analysts:

The only disconcerting split involves (Braun’s) BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP.

Problems with righties could be a problem. Not a good pitching side to struggle against. I’m not saying he will be dreadful; I’m saying he may have his struggles. In the 2nd round, you don’t want to risk it.

In 2007, Jake Peavy was the top overall player according to our player rater with Alex Rodriguez coming in a close second. Of course, pitching is less reliable, so looking ahead to your 2008 fantasy baseball draft, how should you draft? Here’s my top 10. Tomorrow, 11 thru 20.

1. Alex Rodriguez – Maybe you despise his natural ability, maybe the New York Media has convinced you he’s not as good as you think, but his worst season of the last five seasons was in 2006 when he gave you 113/35/121/.290/15. If he gives you those numbers again, he’s not causing you to lose your fantasy league. There’s safety in Arod, no matter what you feel about him personally. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305

2. Jose Reyes – He placed only twenty-three on our player rater last year, but finding 30 home runs later in the draft will be easier than finding 30 steals. With Reyes’s 70 steals, you won’t have to worry about steals later. Projections: 130/14/70/.295/70

3. Albert Pujols – His numbers last year were down, definitely. They were still 99/32/103/.327/2. His lineup doesn’t look any better going into 2008, but his lineup wasn’t very good in 2006 when he carried his team to the World Series. He’s a tremendous talent that is still only 28 (in Latin years that may be 35, but that’s a different discussion). Projections: 110/40/115/.330/2

4. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Remember what Helton used to do in his prime years? But Holliday won’t hit .340 again. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/7

5. David Wright – The Mets love to run and it doesn’t appear like Wright is slowing down just yet. 30 steals might be asking a lot, but there’s a good chance his power will continue to grow. Projection: 115/34/120/.310/20

6. Hanley Ramirez – He’s a talent, no doubt. But his offseason shoulder surgery is something to be aware of. He’s not higher on this list because of reasons stated here. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45

7. Jake Peavy – Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, the best pitcher currently in the game. If you have balls to take him first or second, I can’t argue with it. I’m ball-less. Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05

8. Miguel Cabrera – He’s a hitting savant and he’s on Trimspa. The change of leagues doesn’t worry me, as it will be negated by the more than legit lineup now surrounding him. Projections: 110/35/125/.315/4

9. Chase Utley – Weak position, monster lineup, great ability, fierce determination. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12

10. Prince Fielder – Case could be made for a lot of people in this slot. Johan Santana, Ryan Braun, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, Brandon Webb, but they’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the eleven to twenty rankings. Prince is young, is a safe pick to repeat last year’s monster season and has a huge backside upside. Projections: 115/50/125/.285

Alex Rodriguez will probably go number one (why Hanley Ramirez should not go number one, click here) in most 2008 fantasy baseball drafts, but who will go #2? There’s lots of worthy candidates for you to choose from, so which one will it be?

A) Jose Reyes — As long as Major League Baseball doesn’t start testing for Red Bull, you’re getting 70 steals and possibly 15 home runs.
B) Hanley Ramirez — 50 steals and 25 home runs and hopefully the Marlins bat him 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
C) David Wright — Easily 30/30 and he’s got a squeaky clean image like O.J. Simpson in the 70s.
D) Albert Pujols — With a name like poo-holes, do you even have to ask?
E) As Sloth from The Goonies would say, “Baby Ruth?”

A Rays fansite (Now, quiet, they have a few fans. (And, sorry to do a parenthesis inside a parenthesis, but I just wanted to point out I was gonna do that super-snarky thing when a blogger crosses out a word, but you can still read it, but I don’t know how to do strike-throughs. Alas…)) talks about how BROKEN LINKTroy Percival will allow Al Reyes to pitch the 8th inning.(Think this blog threw in the towel. Can’t understand why a Rays fan would do that.) Which is completely true (not that someone wrote that, but that it appears Percy will be the closer), but my question is why. As in, why don’t the Rays want to compete? Reyes was perfectly fine last year. Sure, he wore out as the season progressed, but don’t the Rays have a few more, ahem, fish to fry than signing a closer that retired already? First, they trade away Delmon Young, who could be feasting on major league pitching by as soon as this year, for Matt Garza. Yes, good pitching beats good hitting. We see it every All-Star game and every October. Yes, the Rays’ staff needs help, but Delmon looked like the real deal. Garza, I have my questions about. They could have gotten more. Second, they pick a closer off a scrap heap, to replace the other scrap-heaper. Unbelievable. I think the Rays are trying to pull a Chapter 11 deal like the Marlins. What is with Florida teams?

Over at a Sawx site, they discuss what Manny being Manny might be this year. Supposedly, Gammons has word that Manny’s hitting the weights. I say, Manny’s having Big Papi explain to him how Netflix works, but that’s me. I stand by what I wrote last month about Manny in 2008, but take a gander at what someone else thought.

Over at a Mets site, they talk about giving Pelfrey the ball every fifth day. I completely agree. He showed real promise in September. Not to mention, as the Mets rotation is starting to look, he might be the number two man. Santana for Reyes? Nah, but they better get Santana for someone(s).