Fantasy Baseball Advice

Where to draft the top twenty catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen are all in the books, so now we move onto the shortstops. Top twenty shortstops isn’t as shallow as you might think. For an interesting article on why shortstops are almost as deep outfield, check this out. It’s a great read provided by Lou from Baseball Lab. Unfortunately, Lou is no longer with us. Not dead, just ain’t blogging anymore. His archives are there, and you should check them out some time. Also, our Player Rater for 2007 is here. Onto to the shortstops.

1. Jose Reyes – Check out our top ten overall for projections.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Check out our top ten overall for projections. Also, if you’re so inclined, check out why you should NOT draft Hanley 1st overall.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Check out our top twenty overall for projections.

4. Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo’ll hit second in ’08, which means he scores at least a 110 times if he doesn’t try and carry any deer meat down any stairs. His OBP worries me, but his park excites me. His tendency to strikeout worries me, but the Poles are hard-workers. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10

5. Derek Jeter – Jeter proves my point that you can’t have an ugly mulatto child. Roseanne Barr and George Foster can give birth to a swimsuit model. Jeter always gets drafted higher than he should, probably because he’s notched Jessicas — Alba, Biel and Rabbit. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15 and you’re the envy of any girl that is in your league.

6. Miguel Tejada – His consecutive game streak that he fought so hard for makes me think he’s gonna want to shut up anybody who has linked him to steroids. I say he comes back like a potato sack of dragons. Then again, his age and no steroids may not cooperate with his intention. Projections:
90/25/100/.290/3

7. Carlos Guillen – He’ll be over at 1st this year, but as long as he has shortstop eligibility, you’re good to go. See what was said about him at top twenty 1st basemen. For those too lazy to look, I’m not a huge fan.

8. Rafael Furcal – ’07 was a bad year for Furcal, but his ankle injury in the beginning of the year seemed to be to blame. He was overrated last year, but will be underrated this year (then overrated next year, do you see how this goes?). You have my permission to draft him. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35

9. Michael Young – Young reminds me a lot of Carlos Guillen. You get a little bit of everything and nothing that wonderful. Young is a better bet to hit you .300; Guillen has an outside shot at 17/17 (I refuse to write 20/20 next to his name, when it’s soooo not going to happen.) Projections: 95/12/95/.310/10

10. Jhonny Peralta – He looked a lot better in the first half last year, but he’s still only going to be 26 this year. He’s a definite buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3

11. Edgar Renteria – I likey Renteria. He’ll get you some decent numbers when he’s out there and then when he’s banged up, you fill in with a hot hitter off waivers. Unless you’re in an AL-Only league, then you can’t fill in as easily. Projections: 95/10/75/.295/15

12. Khalil Greene – Don’t think Khalil will ever hit above .275, so act accordingly. Projections: 85/27/100/.260

13. J.J. Hardy – I almost put J.J. above Guillen, but his OBP was a bit atrocious and his pre- and post- All-Star game splits were worse. He sees very few balls he doesn’t like and even fewer strikes. Projections: 85/20/80/.260

14. Ryan Theriot – Great strike-zone discipline and speed. He’s a great buy towards the end of drafts for some cheap speed. Forgo Juan Pierre-types and grab Theriot. Projections: 105/3/50/.290/45

15. Orlando Cabrera – He was not as good last year as you might think considering some experts draft lists. His stats were: 101/8/86/.301/20. Rex “The Hud” Hudler loved him, but he also loves Garrett Anderson. You don’t have to draft Cabrera just because everyone seems to be high on him. Projections: 100/9/65/.280/20

16. Julio Lugo – Here’s what I said at the top twenty 2nd basemen, “The steals were a bit of a surprise on Boston last year. Don’t think the average will be as bad as last year…” Projections: 80/7/65/.270/25

17. Stephen Drew – He’ll be better than he was last year soon, just not sure if you should count on it being in 2008. His OBP was a mess, but he’s only 25 this year. Projections: 65/20/75/.270/15

18. Yunel Escobar – I’m pretty high on Yunel. Well, as high as someone could be and still place him 18th overall at his position. His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that. Projections: 80/10/55/.285/15

19. Jason Bartlett– He’s a poor man’s Theriot. It just keeps getting better and better, huh? You’ll get cheap steals here, and maybe nothing else. Projections: 70/5/45/.270/25

20. Erick Aybar – A poor man’s Jason Bartlett. Projections: 65/2/35/.265/20

Just after the top twenty, obviously many, but I couldn’t fail to mention:

Brandon Wood – He will be a monster slugger one day soon, but his K/BB ratio is just plain ugly. Hopefully he becomes something other than a young Troy Glaus. Projections: sticks with the club out of spring training, then rides the bench on and off for three months totally screwing up his progress. Draft him in ’09.

Tomorrow, we move to the top twenty outfielders for 2008.

Previously, we covered the top ten and twenty overall draft picks. Then we went onto the top twenty 1st basemen and 2nd basemen to draft. Now, we cover the top twenty third basemen. 3rd base is stacked with talent, Pete Nice and MC Serch notwithstanding. To contrast and compare, you can look at our 2007 Player Rater here.

1. Alex Rodriguez – See our top ten overall.

2. David Wright – See our top ten overall.

3. Miguel Cabrera – See our top ten overall.

4. B.J. Upton – (Here’s what I said about B.J. when he placed 3rd overall for the top twenty 2nd basemen.) …His BABIP was leprechaunian so the average will drop a bit, but he’s a young Soriano. Speed, power, quick wrists. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27

5. Ryan Braun – Here’s what I said when not placing Braun in the top twenty overall: He’ll probably go before “after 20,” but that’s fine. You don’t want him in ’08. For every McGwire Rookie of the Year, there’s a dozen woulda-shouldas. Let someone else deal with the possible headache, because as stated here by The Baseball Analysts:

The only disconcerting split involves (Braun’s) BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP.

As you can see, I’m not completely down on Braun, because I am placing him fifth overall at 3rd base. Just be careful about overvaluing him. Since the top twenty overall was written, he will now play outfield. This will give him position flexibility, so he’s a bit more valuable. I still wouldn’t go overboard. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12

6. Aramis Ramirez – As I wrote here, he’s in for a big rebound. To summarize what was written, he had wrist problems for half the season and then started clubbing homers in September as he started to feel well. Projections: 95/37/120/.305

7. Garrett Atkins – Those buckteeth are magnificent, aren’t they? His pre- and post-All-Star splits were bad for average(.259/.349), but they were pretty even for power(13/12). He didn’t take it to the next level in ’07 like some predicted, but he’s still only 28. Projections: 85/34/115/.300

8. Mike Lowell – Everything broke right for Mr. Lowell last year. Every time he came up with runners on, he was dyn-o-mite. .406 average with men on first and second. .615 average with men on second and third. .318 average with the bases loaded. He batted forty points above his career average on the season at the age of 33 (He looks like he might be in his 40s.). The Green Mawnster is a haven for a rightie doubles hitter, so maybe the drop off won’t be that bad, but expect a drop off. Projections: 75/20/105/.290/3

9. Chipper Jones – Not sure I understand the allure of Chipper. Feel he gets some sort of boost on name value. He’s long past the days of hitting 30 home runs and you’re begging for 100 RBIs. His eye is impeccable, so you’re getting someone that will avoid prolonged slumps, but you’re not getting any upside whatsoever. Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5

10. Alex Gordon – Member what you thought Zimmerman would do last year? Well, Gordon’s gonna do it this year. I think the hype Braun’s getting this offseason, Gordon will be getting in ’09. You missed Braun last year; don’t miss Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20

11. Adrian Beltre – I had him on one team when he had his I’m-playing-for-a-contract season. I will never have him again. He’s a nightmare of inconsistency. Six homers one month, 1 homer and a below .200 average another month. He’ll drive you mad. Projections: 85/25/85/.260/7

12. Kevin Kouzmanoff – He really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half of last year and he’s hitting third this year (as long as he doesn’t repeat his 1st half from last year). He always knew how to take a walk in the minors, and I think he can do the same in the bigs. Here’s to high hopes. Projections: 90/27/105/.285

13. Ryan Zimmerman – He had wrist surgery in November of ’07. His team is better offensively this year than last, but… He had wrist surgery. Do you really wanna be messin’ with this? Come back to him in ’09, he’ll still only be 25. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5

14. Chone Figgins – You want Juan Pierre at 3rd base? Follow along, if you have five home runs from your 3rd baseman, you better have someone hitting 50 home runs elsewhere. Also, last year’s average was an aberration. There’s a time and a place for Figgins. You find yourself falling behind in steals. Trade for him, get a boost in steals and then trade him away. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45

15. Edwin Encarncion – Maybe I’m effin’ crazy, but I like Encarncion. He’s not winning a batting title or the Roberto Clemente Award. The Cincinnati Reds may trade him because he sucks at being a teammate and Dusty may get fed up, but if he gets his ABs he could surprise you. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15

16. Kevin Youlikis – See top twenty 1st basemen.

17. Troy Glaus – A pothole at 3rd base. I was going to leave him off completely, but I thought people would rise up in revolt. Avoid Glaus at all costs, especially if he ends up on the Cardinals. A switch of leagues could mean a .240 average. Projections: 65/22/70/.255 and LaRussa offers to be his designated driver by the All-Star break.

18. Ty Wigginton – If you’re taking Wiggs, you’re not trying hard enough. This late into a position, go for a high upside guy. Such as #19 or #20. Ty’s Projections: 70/20/70/.270

19. Evan Longoria – Iwamura’s going to 2nd base and Morgan Ensberg’s gonna play 3rd. Or Evan Longoria. Let’s see, who will be playing there, Ensberg or Longoria? Now think about how the Rays bungled Upton and Young in the minors. Leaving them there about a season too long. So Longoria might not be playing in the majors this year, but this is a spring training decision for you to make. If you’re drafting now, you have to take a flyer. Projections: 70/20/75/.285 and he’s manning 3rd base from May until October.

20. Andy LaRoche – He’s done all there is to do in the minors by the age of 23. It’s him or Nomar. Please, Torre, put Nomar out to pasture. Mia needs help with the kids. Projections: 60/22/75/.310/5

After the “top twenty,” plenty obviously, but one I like that there was no room for is:

Casey Blake – He’ll come super cheap and you can do a lot worse. He’s on a good offensive team and his manager knows how to use him. Don’t expect the world, but in AL-only, you draft him. Projections: 75/20/75/.270/5

Who I don’t like after the top twenty – Scott Rolen. It was a fine career. It’s over. Now go wrap yourself in an endangered mongoose coat and drive slowly by LaRussa’s home.

Tomorrow we finish the infield with the top twenty shortstops.

People over at the Brew Crew Ball quote Fox Sports’ on Ryan Braun moving to the outfield with the addition of Mike Cameron. The Brewers this offseason said to George Mitchell, “Here’s spit in your eye.” Gagne, Cameron, Mota… Maybe they can coax Canseco out of retirement?

Over in Sun Devil territory, the Arizona Republic reports that Brandon Lyon is the leading candidate for D-backs saves with Tony Pena available for one or more innings. This makes sense, since rarely the best pitcher is the one chosen to close games. Obviously, this is not the final say on this. I think Lyon or Pena could work, and when drafting a Diamondbacks closer, you may have to take both. Lyon could get 25 saves and Pena 15. Or vice versa.

The Cardinals’ Blog, Viva El Birdos, do an excellent job of breaking down Matt Clement projections. I love Matt Clement as much as the next guy, which is to say slightly more than Livan Hernandez and way more than Kip Wells, but the rotator cuff surgery is tough one to return from. In an NL-only league, I would bid on him. Could get you 100Ks and a four and a half ERA in a little over twenty games. In a mixed league, you have to pass.

So far we’ve looked at the overall top ten and the top twenty, the top twenty catchers and 1st basemen. Today we look at where to draft the top twenty 2nd basemen for 2008. Second base has been historically weak for fantasy, with some experts saying at last year’s draft that 2nd base was weaker than catcher. Well, that turned out to be a wrong. In 2008, experts have changed their tune dramatically. So when people start amping up hype on a position is when you need to tone your excitement down. Sure, there’s some quality 2nd basemen in this year’s draft, just know a lot of them come with caveats. If you want to see how they stacked up on our 2007 Player Rater, click here.

1. Chase Utley – I’m unabashedly a fan. See the top ten for his projections.

2. Robinson Cano – Granted, the pre/post All-Star splits are an unpleasant trend, but who cares if at season’s end the numbers are there. Plus, I love the increase on his HRs and RBIs from ‘06 to ‘07. He’s not going to hit .342 like he did in ’06, but at his young age and in the Yankees lineup, I see the absolute safest 2nd basemen after Chase. You won’t have to draft him insanely high and you can still get numbers. If you need speed, you’ll have to look elsewhere though. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3

3. B.J. Upton – The most upside on this list with the ability to jump to the late 1st round next year. His BABIP was leprechaunian so the average will drop a bit, but he’s a young Soriano. Speed, power, quick wrists. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27

4. Brandon Phillips – I kind of wanted to drop him down even more to emphasize how much caution you need to take with Phillips. I’m just going to point out one negative. In 650 ABs, he walked 33 times and struck out 109 times. He’s got speed; he’s in a great hitting park. He will not hit .288 again. At the first sign of struggle, he starts swinging for the fences and he goes into a deep funk. Hitters who don’t take walks fall into slumps. Do yourself a favor and let someone else draft Phillips. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”

5. Brian Roberts – Honestly, I don’t like him. Never have had him on a team. His numbers are too erratic for my taste. One year 4 homers, next year 18. Career average 29 steals, last year 50. This year he’ll be 30 years old, next year he’ll be 42. His average being in the .290s is about the only thing I would count on. I don’t think 50 steals are coming again. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30

6. Ian Kinsler – I’m very high on Kinsler. As he moves into the prime of his career, he enters the final year you can grab him at a bargain price. His swing is a bit too upper-cutty for a .300 average but in his park and with his speed, he’s getting you 20/20 by August. Projections (assuming he’s at the top of the order and not at the bottom): 110/25/70/.270/25

7. Rickie Weeks – Too many injuries? Actually, same injury, long time to heal. When you flap your bat like Sheff, a wrist injury is bad news. Hopefully, a year and a half after the wrist surgery will set things right because he could still be a power and speed monster. This is the year he gets himself right. Aside, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 100/20/60/.260/30

8. Jeff Kent – Might be the last time you can draft Jeff Kent as the swan song approaches. Luckily, he’s too much of a conceited prick to play past the point he can contribute, so the fact he’s playing in ’08 means he’s going to give his best. With the Dodgers rookies having one more year of experience, I could see a bit of a boon to all of their numbers. Projections: 80/25/90/.300

9. Dan Uggla – Strong candidate to repeat his numbers from last year, minus ten to fifteen runs with the depleted Marlins’ lineup. Unfortunately, one of those numbers he’ll repeat is a sub-.250 average. Average that low over 600 ABs is too taxing on your team. You should try and avoid. Projections: 95/30/80/.245

10. Aaron Hill – I get the sneaky suspicious that Aaron Hill’s Fan Club meetings are not well-attended. Does anyone care about Aaron Hill? I think he’s probably his Mom’s third favorite after her two cats. Anyway, he does have pop in his bat and just now entering his prime years. He could jump five spots by next year or his low OBP could foreshadow a disappointment. Usually I side with the low OBP as a sign of trouble, but I say closer to the former. He’s a young Jeff Kent, I tell ya. Projections: 90/24/85/.280/5

11. Kelly Johnson – It’s disturbing that Bobby Cox benched Johnson against a majority of lefties, because when Cox gets set on something he’s slow to change. Johnson will be sitting there in the later rounds and has an outside shot at 15/15, plus he’s only 26 heading into ‘08. Projections: 85/17/65/.275/12

12. Placido Polanco – If you draft PP, you’re just not trying hard enough. His upside is non-existent. He’s 32 and his best, oft-injured days are behind him. He’ll hit you .310 with nothing else. You’re honestly better off taking Kelly Johnson against righties and filling in Yunel Escobar when the Braves play lefties. It’ll be more productive. The people over at Faketeams.com usually run a great site, but they have Polanco in the fifth position. Peyote? Perhaps. Then again, they have Marcus Giles at 20 and 21. He’s so bad we gotta list him twice! At least they didn’t list Ray Durham. Oh, wait, they did. At #15. Anyway, PP’s Projections: 90/7/65/.310/7 and you’re coming in fifth in your league.

13. Howie Kendrick – Can’t say I’m fully aboard the Kendrick love boat just yet. He tore up a half-season of AAA in ’06. He’s got upside, no doubt. My concern is 21 walks in over 500 at-bats in ’06 and 9 base on balls in ‘07. Scioscia loves to run, or as Rex “The Hud” Hudler says, “Shose plays aggressive!” So playing for Shose could lead to 20 steals for Howie and there’s potential for 15-20 homers, but I’d be very careful. People are loving themselves some Kendrick and he’s going higher than I would take him. I say ’09 is his year to shine. Projections: 70/12/55/.290/15

14. Dustin Pedroia – He’s about as safe as a pick can be without getting anything that exciting. He’ll be driven in plenty and get his share of RBIs because the Sox lineup is Shirley Hemphill-thick. Just don’t ask for too much. Projections: 105/12/60/.300/12

15. Orlando Hudson – O-Dog, as Gracie likes to say, can sure “Pick ‘em.” But if your league doesn’t count putouts, then you’re getting an offensive player about as dull as Jimmy Fallon as a leading man. Orlando seems like a really nice guy though. Nice finishes fifteenth. Projections: 90/10/60/.280/10

16. Kaz Matsui – The Astros will give Matsui the green light when he’s healthy. Last season was a great contract year, don’t bank a return to form, but for cheap steals, you’ll find some here. Projections: 75/3/30/.275/25

17. Mark Ellis – He avoided injuries last year, but the two seasons before, not so much. The A’s decided to make a run for last place with this offseason’s moves and I don’t see Mark Ellis being the guy to lead them back to respectability. He’s barely average with the bat eight-tenths of the year, and he gets hot for two-tenths as the summer heats up. Don’t draft him, then grab him late May from his owner, who by that point, absolutely hates him. You’re welcome. Projections: 75/17/70/.270/7

18. Freddy Sanchez – Senior Contributing Writer Rudy Gamble said the Pittsburgh reporters were dying for Freddy to be mentioned in the Mitchell Report so they could use the headline, “Dirty Sanchez.” That made me giggle. Projections: 75/10/75/.310

19. Asdrubal Cabrera – Really, I could’ve put DeRosa, Vidro or Iguchi at #19, but when you’re drafting this low into a position it’s worth taking a gamble on a young guy. In a half-season of Double A in ’07, Droobs hit 8 HRs and swiped 23 bases. Also, he has strike zone discipline by walking more than he struck out leading to a .383 OBP. What’s not to love? Someone taking DeRosa cause he’s safer. The final rounds is not the time to be safe. You should have been safe early on. Projections: 85/7/50/.300/15

20. Felipe Lopez/Luis Castillo/Julio Lugo – Felipe, Manny Acta doesn’t believe in costing his team an out with a steal. Ugh. Castillo, You’ll get runs and a decent limp. Now that I think about it, I kinda like him more than Polanco. Lugo, The steals were a bit of a surprise on Boston last year. Don’t think the average will be as bad as last year. Hmm, maybe he’s better than Polanco too. Projections: These guys will get you cheap runs and steals. Not much else. Act accordingly.

Tomorrow, the top twenty 3rd basemen.

Yesterday, we went over the top twenty catchers for ‘08 to draft here to add to our top ten overall and our 11 thru 20 draft list. Thankfully, we’re moving onto a meatier position as we go around the horn to our 1st basemen draft list for 2008. Also, if you want to check out our 2007 Player Rater, it’s here. Yeah, screw you ESPN and your ESPN Player Rater. Or look at that one here. We forgive you.

1. Albert Pujols See the top ten.

2. Prince Fielder See the top ten.

3. Ryan Howard See 11-20.

4. Travis Hafner – Pronk listed here might get me the most grief, but last year was not the norm with only 24 homers and a .266 average. I see a major bounce back. Besides having the best nickname currently in baseball, he can mash in the middle of great lineup, he knows how to take a walk and he has an indeterminate race. If Hafner doesn’t have 1st base eligibility in your league, I’d move him below the next three. Projections: 100/40/110/.300

5. Mark Teixeira – With a last name that hard to spell, he better be good. So, it’s I before X, except after… Whatever. His 1st halfs have not been what they should for two years now. Starting to look like a trend, but he still has good pop in his bat, just don’t expect 43 homers again. BTW, I need to add an FYI here. FYI, Tex, Derrek and Berkman are very close in value. They ended up in this order because Tex is the youngest and has the most upside, Derrek has a better lineup than Berkman, and Berkman’s at #7 because he seems racist to me. (I wonder what Berkman would think of Hafner?) But I digress. Tex’s Projections: 110/35/120/.305

6. Derrek Lee – In the 2nd half last year, he finally regained his power that was so badly missing after his wrist injury. Post-All-Star break in ’07, he hit 16 of his 22 homers. Watch this trend continue into ‘08. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5

7. Lance Berkman – The addition of Tejada can’t hurt. Maybe he can introduce Lance to the clear or the cream or whatever it is they’re flagellating on themselves nowadays. I don’t think we’re ever gonna see ’06 type numbers from him again, so act accordingly. Projections: 100/30/115/.310/5

8. Justin Morneau – He doesn’t take enough walks to grab those MVP numbers ever again, but he is young and has enough natural ability to put up nice numbers. Beware of his average, he won’t hit .300 without a whole lot of luck. Projections: 90/35/110/.275

9. Adrian Gonzalez – On one hand, he plays at Petco. On the other hand, he’ll be only 26 in ’08. And on your final hand, assuming you have three hands, I can’t imagine anyone hitting 40 homers at Petco, so we’re looking at a ceiling of 35 homers. Not awful, but he did strikeout a lot from June on last year. Projections: 90/33/105/.280

10. Paul Konerko – The White Sox flat out stunk last year. Nothing went right. Konerko’s season was no different. He’ll only be 32 in ’08. Look for a bounce back, but keep expectations in line. He’s not going to hit 40-plus and .300-plus. Projections: 90/35/110/.275

11. Carlos Pena – I wanted to rank him higher, but my better senses wouldn’t let me. He needs to do what he did last year again before he moves up the rankings, but he might come as a steal in some drafts. Then again, he might be one of the bigger busts of ‘08. No risk, no reward, but remember he was allergic to walks before last year. I don’t trust him and won’t have him on any of my teams. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.

12. Todd Helton – He has no upside, but, fortunately, I don’t see much downside either. He’s about as unexciting as a 1st basemen can be while still offering something of value. Projections: 90/15/90/.315

13. Carlos Guillen – The people over at Faketeams.com have Guillen way higher than this at number three overall for 1B. They run a good site, but on this point, I think they missed the mark. Their thesis statement is Guillen will give you a little bit of everything. That’s true. It fails to realize there’s much more reliance on power at 1st base. As you can see from our article, How Do You Value Fantasy Hitters?, the Best Available Option at 1B beats Guillen’s 162 game average in homers and nearly equals in RBIs. Not to mention, Guillen isn’t young and he is often injured. Now if you’re using Guillen at SS or MI, then that’s a different story. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8

14. Kevin Youkilis – Is it me or does he look like he should be hitting 35 homers every year? Well, he won’t. He needs to hit twenty first. Projections (assuming he’s at the top of the lineup instead of the six hole):115/21/90/.290/3

15. Nick Swisher – We finally got some great upside here as Swisher takes his carefree attitude over to the White Sox and gets to hit in a much better lineup. He needs to stabilize his average, which is odd for a man with a good eye, but there’s major sleeper potential here. I’m high on Swisher this year and these numbers are low-balling him. Projections: 95/30/100/.275

16. Mike Jacobs – Here’s some more upside for you. The Marlins will be dreadful, but Jacobs could be a bright spot. Jacobs maintained a 2:1 BB:K last year as he struggled with a thumb injury. This year could be the year the power comes-a-callin’. I think it is. Projections: 70/30/95/.285

17. Carlos Delgado – The best has left the building. As someone who watched more Mets games last year than I care to admit, Delgado flounders against lefties to the point where I think a platoon might work. And, if the Mets don’t do a platoon, you should seriously consider sitting him against lefties if you draft him. Projections: 70/28/95/.260

18. Adam LaRoche – In December of ’07, he had his 2nd MRI on his knee and decided to rest rather than surgery. This is not a good thing. Avoid him and go for one of the next three if you find yourself scrambling for a 1st basemen in the later rounds. Projections: 70/27/100/.265

19. James Loney – He’ll be 24 in ’08 and he has the natural skills to take him to the top ten of 1st basemen for ’09. Major sleeper potential. Hopefully, Torre plays him like he should. Every day. Projections: 95/22/85/.315

20. Casey Kotchman – Well, it only took him a year and a half to recover from mono (Magic beat AIDS in less time). This is the year Kotchman lives up to the potential. Projections: 80/22/80/.300

21. Ryan Garko – Meat, I couldn’t not tell you to get on the Garko wagon. He may not break camp as the starter, but keep a close eye on him. Projections (if he starts by May): 65/27/80/.280

After the 21, lots of people obviously, but avoid:

Richie Sexson – Last year was an aberration. He won’t be that bad again in ’08. You still don’t want to draft him. He’s a batting average drain when he’s playing well. Find thirty homers elsewhere. You’re welcome.

Tomorrow, the top twenty second basemen for 2008.