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I don’t like being given one big $ figure because it doesn’t tell me the value of each of the statistics. I find this important since the purchase of Reyes makes Brian Roberts less valuable since there’s only so many SB points to be had. The Point Shares can adjust for that letting you see that Reyes 3.6 (in a ten team league) means that just having a league average SB crew for the rest of your squad nets you 9.1 points. Same rationale why

As for pitchers, it’s true only 35 of the presumed 90 pitching slots in a 10 team MLB league provide ‘above average’ performance. I don’t know if I’d quite state it that they provided 50% of the value though. When you create a blended average, you could have any number of people on each side of the average. Only choosing a median value would guarantee a perfect 45/45 split.

One fault of using the average is that it means negative players DO have value. The assumption here is that you need to fill in your whole roster. Almost every hitter provides some value as long as he gets ABs (vs an empty slot). Pitching has two ratios/averages so an empty slot may be preferable to having livan hernandez funkify your ERA/WHIP.

So think of below average players as trying to acquire the lesser evil. Each one chips away at the above average performance of your top players. You’re just hoping they don’t drag you down too far.

Why I’m feeling strong about Point Shares is that I’ve tested it a number of times. If you want to replicate it, just take your league’s draft (or a mock draft) and calculate the standings based on 2008 projections (PECOTA recommended). Then run it using Point Shares. My tests showed it came quite close to predicting the standings. So I feel confident that it does a good job at valuing each player contribution. I think it would do a better job than BP’s PFM $ because it couldn’t account for cases where you overinvested in one category vs. another.

Hope this helps…

Average is more interesting to me, however, as it can help to answer when starting a player is actually hurting you. Something doesn’t seem to add up with your numbers, though (or maybe I’m misunderstanding something). According to the totals, there are only 35 pitchers with positive values. My understanding is that that means that 35/90 pitchers are above average? That’s by definition incorrect, isn’t it? I suppose it could be that the top 35 pitchers contribute 50% of the value, statistically, which would make sense. So if that’s the case, then rather than picking a pitcher with a negative point share total, is it better to start no one in that active spot? That seems counterintuitive, but maybe it’s true. Any thoughts?

The 13 team thing is a bit weird. This is a new league for me so I’m just kinda going along with things. So with the slight differences in each of my leagues, it causes a few little tweaks here and there to make sure I’m prepared.

I’ve got this whole giant spreadsheet now full of numbers like I mentioned. For a while there, I had too much information and that was a bad thing. But, then I found your tool here and it really put everything I want into one place. So, by factoring in a nice ADP tool I found out there as well, it all works out to be some very powerful information.

Hopefully all of these calculations and head-scratching will lead me on a path to fantasy baseball glory.

Thanks again.

Man, there are so many fantasy baseball variations out there. How do you end up with 13 teams, a DH (do they have to be DH-eligible?), and 8 pitchers? LOL. At least it isn’t like the H2H that Grey is in that considers 3B as valuable as HRs.

The calculations are pretty complex and involve drafting a whole ‘drafted’ universe to understand league stat totals and then doing some testing to determine the stat increments for each point (e.g., how many HRs represent a point for a team).

I’d use the 12 team Point Shares, discount catchers slightly (b/c it’s based on 2 C), and ignore the 8 vs. 9 pitcher difference. The ADP information is great - I use it too so I don’t draft guys earlier than i need to.

Good luck!
Rudy

My problem is that I’m in a 13-team 5X5 league that also includes a DH and 8 pitchers instead of 9. So with those factors, I’m sure the point shares you have put in place would be slightly modified but I was curious if you could point me to a way to calculate these point shares with my own variables such as a 13-team league.

I think these point shares are the best piece of information I’ve found on this great internet and I really appreciate your work here.

So I definitely factor those things in when doing my personal rankings.

My Point Shares methodology is projection-agnostic though. As long as I put in projections and determine the drafted universe, it’ll crank out estimates.

The focus for my drafting this year is to avoid the drafting biases that naturally arise - for instance, I think most players overrate HR/SB and underrate R/RBI. Not saying the first two aren’t slightly more predictable, but drafting a leadoff hitter type at 70/20/70/30 appears more valuable than a 95/30/95/5 guy because of an SB bias…

And don’t get me started about the biggest shortcoming in fantasy player analysis - how to rate pitchers vs. hitters….

Guess it’s worth seeing how I do this year in fantasy leagues before investing too much pride in it…

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