One more note: If you got any value out of the spreadsheet, the post, the comments, etc., please click the Ballhype button under the article. If you haven’t been to Ballhype, it’s like a Digg for sports news. Great site and one that helps us spread the word about our little site. I also recommend using the site to find other great sports articles….

I don’t like being given one big $ figure because it doesn’t tell me the value of each of the statistics. I find this important since the purchase of Reyes makes Brian Roberts less valuable since there’s only so many SB points to be had. The Point Shares can adjust for that letting you see that Reyes 3.6 (in a ten team league) means that just having a league average SB crew for the rest of your squad nets you 9.1 points. Same rationale why

As for pitchers, it’s true only 35 of the presumed 90 pitching slots in a 10 team MLB league provide ‘above average’ performance. I don’t know if I’d quite state it that they provided 50% of the value though. When you create a blended average, you could have any number of people on each side of the average. Only choosing a median value would guarantee a perfect 45/45 split.

One fault of using the average is that it means negative players DO have value. The assumption here is that you need to fill in your whole roster. Almost every hitter provides some value as long as he gets ABs (vs an empty slot). Pitching has two ratios/averages so an empty slot may be preferable to having livan hernandez funkify your ERA/WHIP.

So think of below average players as trying to acquire the lesser evil. Each one chips away at the above average performance of your top players. You’re just hoping they don’t drag you down too far.

Why I’m feeling strong about Point Shares is that I’ve tested it a number of times. If you want to replicate it, just take your league’s draft (or a mock draft) and calculate the standings based on 2008 projections (PECOTA recommended). Then run it using Point Shares. My tests showed it came quite close to predicting the standings. So I feel confident that it does a good job at valuing each player contribution. I think it would do a better job than BP’s PFM $ because it couldn’t account for cases where you overinvested in one category vs. another.

Hope this helps…

Average is more interesting to me, however, as it can help to answer when starting a player is actually hurting you. Something doesn’t seem to add up with your numbers, though (or maybe I’m misunderstanding something). According to the totals, there are only 35 pitchers with positive values. My understanding is that that means that 35/90 pitchers are above average? That’s by definition incorrect, isn’t it? I suppose it could be that the top 35 pitchers contribute 50% of the value, statistically, which would make sense. So if that’s the case, then rather than picking a pitcher with a negative point share total, is it better to start no one in that active spot? That seems counterintuitive, but maybe it’s true. Any thoughts?

The 13 team thing is a bit weird. This is a new league for me so I’m just kinda going along with things. So with the slight differences in each of my leagues, it causes a few little tweaks here and there to make sure I’m prepared.

I’ve got this whole giant spreadsheet now full of numbers like I mentioned. For a while there, I had too much information and that was a bad thing. But, then I found your tool here and it really put everything I want into one place. So, by factoring in a nice ADP tool I found out there as well, it all works out to be some very powerful information.

Hopefully all of these calculations and head-scratching will lead me on a path to fantasy baseball glory.

Thanks again.

Man, there are so many fantasy baseball variations out there. How do you end up with 13 teams, a DH (do they have to be DH-eligible?), and 8 pitchers? LOL. At least it isn’t like the H2H that Grey is in that considers 3B as valuable as HRs.

The calculations are pretty complex and involve drafting a whole ‘drafted’ universe to understand league stat totals and then doing some testing to determine the stat increments for each point (e.g., how many HRs represent a point for a team).

I’d use the 12 team Point Shares, discount catchers slightly (b/c it’s based on 2 C), and ignore the 8 vs. 9 pitcher difference. The ADP information is great – I use it too so I don’t draft guys earlier than i need to.

Good luck!
Rudy

My problem is that I’m in a 13-team 5X5 league that also includes a DH and 8 pitchers instead of 9. So with those factors, I’m sure the point shares you have put in place would be slightly modified but I was curious if you could point me to a way to calculate these point shares with my own variables such as a 13-team league.

I think these point shares are the best piece of information I’ve found on this great internet and I really appreciate your work here.

So I definitely factor those things in when doing my personal rankings.

My Point Shares methodology is projection-agnostic though. As long as I put in projections and determine the drafted universe, it’ll crank out estimates.

The focus for my drafting this year is to avoid the drafting biases that naturally arise – for instance, I think most players overrate HR/SB and underrate R/RBI. Not saying the first two aren’t slightly more predictable, but drafting a leadoff hitter type at 70/20/70/30 appears more valuable than a 95/30/95/5 guy because of an SB bias…

And don’t get me started about the biggest shortcoming in fantasy player analysis – how to rate pitchers vs. hitters….

Guess it’s worth seeing how I do this year in fantasy leagues before investing too much pride in it…

Patrick DiCaprio’s last blog post..Nominate Travis Hafner in the First Round of Your Auction Draft: A Follow-up

Pitchers can be risky, but it’s not as crippling as you might believe it to be. I drafted Chris Carpenter with my 2nd pick last year (13th overall) and still won my Yahoo! league with some timely pick-me-ups.

Red Sox Talk’s last blog post..Case study: Dan Haren

rudygamble’s last blog post..2008 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater – “Point Shares”

First off, the Point Shares actually mean something. You can add up your team’s total in each category and get a pretty good estimate what your point total will be. You can use it to value a trade, etc.

The biggest difference in the calculations is comparing players against the average (basically an average player at a position = 0) vs. against the best available free agent option. Why is this important? Well, what I learned is that because of the Utility slot, any strong position like 1B and 3B will be exhausted of all depth until it regresses to a general Free Agent mean. This made below average players at strong positions look more valuable then they are.

Do I think guys like Hafner and Morneau are more valuable then credited in Point Share? Yeah, a little. But that’s mainly b/c there’s a significant drop-off soon after those two (A-Gonz, Konerko, and then plummet)…

And, yes, I use PECOTA and Shandler. I consider adding in others but can’t come up with a methodological reason why. I’ve compared my composite projections against other estimates and they look pretty similar.

Let me know if you have any other questions…
Rudy

Rudy Gamble’s last blog post..2008 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater – “Point Shares”

I’m all about value. I don’t care about pitching or hitting. Similar to Billy Beane, I just look for what the market isn’t valuing correctly and buy it on the discounted rate.

I feel that Santana, Peavy, and Webb are all worthy of a 1st round pick. I just took Santana with the #5 pick in one draft as I don’t think he makes it past pick #12. Peavy seems to last until the end of the 2nd round. Assuming I didn’t pick Santana in the 1st, I would definitely take Peavy in the 2nd and he’s an absolute no-brainer after about pick #16. Webb offers very good value in round #3 and a no-brainer in round #4.

My strategy going into drafts this year is to get two starters in the top 5 – ideally, Santana or Peavy in the first 2, Webb if available in late 3rd or in the 4th, and then one of several options in round 5. I aim for a 3rd starter in around the 8th or 9th round. So this does mean that I leave a number of starters at the top of my queue and dip down for hitters…

I do subscribe that pitchers have more risk but it varies on the pitcher. I think the top 3 are as risk-free as you’ll get for starters – it’s not like Hanley isn’t at least a 20% chance to go .280/20/80/35 or Reyes pulls a hamstring and steals 40…

And you have a point with Carpenter last year but Santana, Peavy, and Webb were are all top 10 finishers. You need to get lucky with pitching to win it – I think these guys at the current market rate give you the best chance to get lucky.

Net-net, don’t follow the market, go against it….

Rudy Gamble’s last blog post..2008 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater – “Point Shares”

Also, you mention that this system is based on a composite of several projection systems. I am assuming that you used PECOTA and Shandler (since you mentioned them), but are any others included?

Thanks for putting in such quality work!

does this sheet officially make you a proponent of drafting pitchers in the first 8 or 10 rounds? or do you think the general inconsistency of pitchers should bring them down a lot? even so, this tells me that historically healthy and consistent pitchers like santana and webb are undervalued in drafts. would you agree?

im going to try going after these guys in my next several mock drafts, using your list with bpro’s attrition rates

thanks again for all your hard work. this is seriously awesome

Herb Urban’s last blog post..Damn, The Hoff cleans up well

Think of last few years where pitcher injuries killed some fantasy teams – Chris Carpenter, BJ Ryan, and to a lesser extent Chris Ray, Josh Johnson, Randy Johnson, and Freddy Garcia. This is in 2007 alone.

To me, they are just too risky to draft high and draft high frequently.

I just use these Point Shares as a base for drafting but made several adjustments based on Average Draft Position and personal preferences. I did my best to try and draft value throughout last night’s Fantasy Writers Draft instead of a need – it hurt me in some areas (2B/MI) but I think my overall team is stronger for it.

It looks like there are some similarities in our rankings – we’re both much less bullish on BJ Upton, Ichiro, and Granderson as the general consensus. That said, Chipper and Zimmerman over Atkins and Aramis. I’m not buying it…

Good drafting yesterday. Getting Holliday and Braun in the first 2 rounds is super-solid. If I could do it again, I’d take Holliday with the #5 pick and then Peavy with my #2….and I was praying Braun would last 2 more spots in the 2nd round…

Rudy

rudygamble’s last blog post..2008 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater – “Point Shares”

Like you, I also have pitcher values coming up very high in my lists, much higher than they are actually drafted in most leagues (mostly due to injury/inconsistency issues, I’m guessing).

This method of drafting seems to work well in the early to mid rounds, but tends to fall apart for me once we get to closers and catchers, later on in the draft. Then I end up taking the best players at the positions I need to fill, and valuing closers more highly than I otherwise might. In my rankings, Jonathan Broxton outranks a lot of closers because of his contributions in the K, ERA and WHIP cats. Which is problematic for drafting.

What I have done for my drafts is combine this method with average draft position numbers (available at http://www.fantasygameday.net/test/) so that I can more easily choose when I should wait to draft my next highest ranked player.

Red Sox Talk’s last blog post..Injuries: Next in line