I was drinking there during Hughes rookie year and I asked the bar tender, an old lady, if they would do anything special for when Phil Hughes pitched up in the Bronx. She had no idea who he was. I real alcoholic bar that’s for sure.

@Jo: Daniel Hudson is my best guess.

@Mr2Bits: No one I particularly love in there. I’d just go to Point Shares and consider that my ranking.

@SwaggerJackers: @Tony: It’s up now.

Forgot to add that the following pitchers are available if you like any of them better than Cecil or Homer.

Scott Baker
Tim Stauffer
Brett Cecil
Homer Bailey
Bronson Arroyo
Derek Holland
Jon Garland
Brandon Webb
Derek Lowe
R.A. Dickey
Brian Duensing

@Eddy: i’d guesstimate that the average team in your format would steal 120 SBs a year. That group of four should steal about 80. Take your slow team out and the average per team is more like 124. So 80 vs. 124 means you’d win a little less than 40% of the time.

@Bill Lumbergh: I prefer Phillips. Hard to say 100% given you have so many categories but, even with SS being a shallower position vs. 2B, I just don’t think Rollins is a reliable player anymore.

@Francis: Sorry but I can’t. I do the Point Shares in Excel and I have to ‘create’ all the players for each league based on the # of teams and positions. To create a custom tool that does the same would require someone with significant coding capabilities. Last Player Picked has a very flexible tool – I think that’s your best ‘free’ bet. RotoChamp and Fantistics have tools as well if you’re willing to pay a little bit.

Funny you say Davis as he is available. I was only going after Buerjos because of Grey’s love for him and upside.

So your take….fill my empty slot with Rajai to try and win over steals and drop Brignac for Cecil?

OR

Just punt steals and grab a flyer like Logan Morrison while still grabbing Homer or Cecil?

POST-draft trade.

trade:
longoria (can’t be kept)
jeter (5th round next year)
holliday (1st round next year, then can’t be kept)

for:
alvarez (24th round next year, 23rd in 2012 and then can’t be kept)
wright (1st round next year, then can’t be kept)
cano (1st round next year, then can’t be kept)

I have andrus at ss, hill at 2b and lind at CI (who is also OF elig.), so it would be a straight swap in my starting lineup of the three guys for the three guys.

Thanks!

Thanks for the feedback Rudy. Agree on Kila, he was a last round flier. I think he’s sharing DH/1B duties with Butler and he’s gotten off to a hot start in spring, so it’s worth a two-week trial at best.

And I’m quite surprised you recommend trading Ellsbury. I actually drafted him to offset Pedro, Dunn, Napoli, Hill and Lind who will give me 1-5 steals combined. Do you really think Wright, Desmond, CarGo and Pence can win weeks for me in that category?

Thanks!

I like the 12 team H2H. Don’t really like Aaron Hill much in this shallow of a format with his blech OBP. I’d flip Ellsbury if you can get another power bat – you’ve got enough speed to steal (pun intended!) a point for some weeks. Like your staff – with 7 solid starters, you can mix/match based on matchups. the relievers are so-so but you’ll win a decent amount of weeks in saves.

I like the 16 team H2H a lot. Solid offense. Deep in quality SP and K-heavy relievers. That’s my type of draft! But Kila is a reach…he’s probably the first to go on the team…

Thanks for the help Rudy. I was thinking Cecil and Buerjos as I need steals?

@OaktownSteve: Thanks. Yeah, in a shallow league, you need to place your bets. We feel pretty good with Pujols, Braun, Reyes, Gallardo, and Marmol. I do think that the distinction by pitch f/x of a slider vs. curve ball has a certain level of arbitrariness to it. I agree that Sheets was worked pretty hard and not blaming curve balls per se for his issue. But I was watching when he tore his back muscle on a curve and it left a mental scar. I also remember reading about Steve Stone’s faustian bargain with the curveball in his Cy Young year. We’ll see on Gio…let’s hope for the best – I’d rather be proven wrong then try to find satisfaction in another’s misfortune (unless Gio does something offensive like mistreat women, sympathize with Nazis, etc. then i can enjoy the schaedenfreude).

@JMonte: Three SS for $100 is unorthodox. I credit it to one of the players being from Milwaukee. The Brewers 1991 starting lineup with 5 hitters who they drafted as Shortstops: starters who were drafted at SS (Robin Yount – CF, Paul Molitor – DH, Jim Gantner – 2B, Bill Spiers – SS, Gary Sheffield – 3B)

@Alex: You’re completely right. The baseline is pitchers who throw 2,700+ MLB pitches the prior year and aim to play the following year (get rid of retirees or unwanted guys). The sample is generally 70-80 pitchers and historically 25% of those pitchers experience a notable dropoff as defined earlier in the post. Last year seems to be a fluke as only 11% actually experienced a dropoff. But I think an impartial review of my self-analysis would be that my judgment on starting pitcher riskiness is so-so at best – at least once you get past the first couple of picks (Going 3 for my first 4 last year is kind of impressive, no?)

@Giant JJ: Nady is injury-prone, past his prime, and I think managed only half a year of above average performance. Definitely someone to pay attention to on the waiver wire if he gets hot but wouldn’t want him on any active roster (even NL-only unless he was $4 or under)

@Wake Up: The Salvadorian Pupusa over the Venezuelan arepa? That’s a tough call. But you can’t truly judge until you’ve had a sweet corn arepa with queso fresca. There’s a lady in Queens who works Friday and Saturday….so good….

@BKK: Grey and I agreed on the strategy. We both avoid $30+ guys but there’s so little depth in 13-team NL that a $40 Pujols is a better value than fighting over guys in the $10-$25 range (and their prices get inflated). That didn’t happen though

Mesoraco won’t start the year with the Reds. We picked up Eli Whiteside as a 2nd catcher in the reserve round. Mesoraco is definitely a top 12 catcher once he gets promoted – possibly by midseason.

Rudy, I’m drafting in a 14-team and 16-team league that counts OPS instead of AVG. Since I’m not too familiar with the category, should I treat it more as OBP or AVG?

And I drafted two teams yesterday for 2011. If you can let off even a couple of sentences on your thoughts I’d greatly appreciate it.

This first one is a 12-team H2H league with OBP instead of AVG.

C-Mike Napoli
1B-Miguel Cabrera (Keeper)
2B-Aaron Hill
3B-David Wright (Keeper)
SS-Ian Desmond
OF- Carlos Gonzalez (Keeper)
OF-Hunter Pence
OF-Jacoby Ellsbury
Util-Adam Dunn
Util-Pedro Alvarez
BN-Adam Lind

SP-Jered Weaver (Keeper)
SP-Dan Haren
SP-Edinson Volquez
SP-Mike Minor
SP-Ian Kennedy
SP-Jake Peavy
SP-Carlos Zambrano

RP-Jake McGee
RP-Kyle Farnsworth
RP-Brandon Lyon
RP-Fernando Rodney
RP-Brandon League

The next one is a 16-team H2H standard league

C-Chris Iannetta
1B-Prince Fielder (keeper)
2B-Danny Espinosa
3B-Pedro Alvarez (Keeper)
SS-Reid Brignac
OF-Josh Hamilton (Keeper)
OF-Andre Ethier (Keeper)
OF-Jay Bruce (Keeper)
Util- Vladimir Guerrero (keeper)
Util-Kila Koolaid

SP-Roy Oswalt (keeper)
SP-Max Scherzer
SP-Shaun Marcum
SP- Edinson Volquez
SP-Wandy Rodriguez
SP- James McDonald
SP-Bronson Arroyo

RP-Brad Lidge
RP-Craig Kimbrel
RP-Joel Hanrahanana
RP-Frank Francisco
RP-Brandon League

Your offense looks pretty good. I’d drop Brignac for someone with higher upside – preferably a 3B or OF because your team AVG can’t handle both Bautista and Krispie Young. Relief pitching is great. Starting pitching is okay. Love Halladay. Haren’s a solid #2. Like going with Minor and Gonzalez as potential breakout keepers. Would like to see a bit more upside in the staff though.

@jim: You’ve got a lot of talent on the roster but I’m a bit concerned that you didn’t balance out risk and position depth. Utley is a great potential value at 2B….but I just don’t like combining him with another injury-prone MI in Tulowitzki (Aaron Hill makes it a troika). The OFs have upside but are all really young. I am not a fan of Krispie Young (AVG drain, unreliable for R/RBI) and Adam Jones is still a question. Heyward seems like the real deal though. I like the Cliff Lee / Yovani Gallardo combo as they complement each other well (Lee great at WHIP, okay Ks..Yovani great Ks, okay WHIP) But I don’t think the OF strength and SPs are enough to compensate for the lack of relief. = I think you’re going to need to be an active trader and waiver wire guy (that is essential anyway for 12-team mixed).

@Wake Up: I was really close to putting on Hanson. You’re completely right to be concerned. I kept him on because he did overcome the gauntlet of a full year with that breaking pitch percentage. The repeat offenders like Wainwright, Nolasco, Dempster etc. seem to be no riskier than the average pitcher. That said, if he gets through this year but doesn’t change his pitch mix, he’ll likely make a 2nd appearance.

Do you think Mesoraco takes the back-up role in Cincy? Could be a boon he starts smacking dingers like he did in the minors last year.

Oh, good job on the risky pitchers post too. It is interesting to watch this evolve as you gather more data year over year.

If he was a starter, his arm would’ve fallen off by now. I have some confidence in projecting riskiness in starting pitchers because I can look at 5 years worth of data and the baseline of 25% dropoff isn’t too common or rare. But middle relievers break down all the time. Can you think of anyone who put together 5 straight years of above average middle relief at 70+ IP? Scot Shields did it from 2003-2007. I thought Octavio Dotel did with the Astros but he only managed three (2001-2003). It’s really the most brutal position in baseball and the worst for a team to invest in long-term player contracts. So can’t say if Gregerson’s slider rate makes him MORE risky but his MR role makes him inherntly risky.

Respectfully, if your list last year only had 2 “hits”, why should we assume that your list this year is any more reliable? Also, if you take the top 100 major league starters, which includes all the guys on your list, i wonder what % get injured? That is, does the whole group of top major league starters get injured just as frequently as the guys on your list?? I don’t know the answer to that but 10% from 2010 is not very good…nothing against you or your methodology – predicting injuries is inherently very difficult…but there is a point at which we should just admit these are not very good predictions instead of using them as if they were…

- Alex

Nice LABR team you and Grey drafted, can you make any sense of a team spending $100 on SS?

As far as curveballs go, it’s an interesting theory. I looked at pitch f/x(assuming that’s where you looked too) for 2005-2010 at all pitchers (not just qualified) and there was hardly any precident for pitchers averaging upwards of 30% curveballs. Among those with the higher percentages there were some arm trouble guys but some of them may have other causes. Sheets for instance, massive workload. Morris, Carpenter, Wainwright feature a high percentage sliders with the curve. Also, with pitch f/x I wonder how accurate the distinction is when you get a pitcher who features two breaking balls like that. Might be more behind the data than just the percentage curves.

Also notable is that a lot of the very reliable pitchers in the game feature a high percentage curveballs and all throw what I would consider a very traditional hand on top curve. Verlander, Halladay, Lackey, bunch of guys with very sound curveball mechanics.

Be interesting to see. Hope you’re wrong about Gio!

I’ll hit you with the point shares question later.

Thanks.