Comments on: 20 Risky Pitchers for 2009

By: ep

ep — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 14:46:29 +0000

Great article.
Looking at all the projections and rankings online, I thought I was the only one who didn’t agree with promoting Nolasco and Lester into the upper echelon. Looks like I found some like-minded folks.
Came across this site looking for some fantasy baseball rankings, think I’ll stick around for the articles.

By: Cory

Cory — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 02:50:02 +0000

This is the best article ever written on this site. Very well done.

By: Fred Barker

Fred Barker — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 04:44:56 +0000

Discovered that run support can be reported as run support just for the innings pitched (Sporting News’ ‘RSA’ @6.58 for Padilla) or extended per 9 innings (ESPN’s ‘RS’ @9.37). I am probably the only reader who didn’t now this already!

By: Fred Barker

Fred Barker — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 04:48:28 +0000

Rudy, this a bit off target, but didn’t know how else to direct the issue to you. My basic premise is that one should temper projections for pitchers when they move up in the pitching rotation. Example, Verlander, Carmona, etc. did well as back end pitchers in part because they got better run support when facing weaker pitching matchups. When they move up the next year and face tougher pitchers, they weren’t so lucky; i.e. when Lincecum has to face Peavy, Webb, etc. instead of the schmohawks he faced last year, he won’t do so well. Floyd and Lee had an easy time of it with great run support in the 5 hole last year, but move them up and then what? Can you point me to a site where I can readily find run support average for pitchers? Then I can array them by rotation order to see if the premise has merit. (Or, you are intrigued by the concept and you do all the work?) (A fluff article by Sporting News’ Matt Lutovsky reported to ten RSA, Padilla at 6.58, but ESPN reported “RS” for Padilla at 9.37.???) Also, I will research for back years. It looks as if any new 4th rotation starter in the AL central has a better than average chance to floorish given the success of Floyd, Galarraga, Lee, Carmona, Verlander, …?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:21:51 +0000

@rhymenoceros: Thanks. Is this Bret or Jemaine?

By: rhymenoceros

rhymenoceros — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:14:52 +0000

I won’t beat a dead horse here, but great article. I’m glad to see a lot of other posters targeting many of these pitchers, because that means many of my other leaguemates will make risky, unwise draft day decisions (nice alliteration…I’m an English teacher). The only two pitchers on my list are Ervin Santana and Javier Vazquez, with Vazquez being the only pitcher I’m still seriously considering.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 18:38:06 +0000

@Ian: Agreed. And thanks for linking to us on your site (http://thebluejayhunter.blogspot.com/2009/02/burnetts-arm-scheduled-to-fall-off-in.html)!

@Cookie’s Monsters: Appreciate the kind words. No need to take the lower 10 off your list completely…just discount them 3-5 rounds…which will probably have the same effect….

By: Cookie's Monsters

Cookie's Monsters — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 09:18:25 +0000

This has to be the best article I’ve seen in my short 1.5 yrs of reading about fantasy baseball….I was targeting and would have been happy to have more than half of these guys next season…now I gotta figure out a plan C

By: Ian

Ian — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 21:34:05 +0000

Hi Rudy,
Great article! Burnett had career highs in IP and K’s, so he is bound to hit the DL this year. I don’t think Dempster can go the entire season without being injured either.

By: Moonlight's Grahams

Moonlight's Grahams — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 10:00:45 +0000

R.I.P. Ben Sheet’s 2009…we hardly knew ye.

By: Nick J

Nick J — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 04:33:43 +0000

No, I was the second one, exclaiming about the existence of another Nick.

I’m not actually worried about it, though. I just thought it was funny that we were confusing the Razzball system or whatever.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 00:57:29 +0000

@Nick: Which other comment was you? About Nolasco? I changed it by accident, and can fix it.

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 00:34:40 +0000

Dude, something strange is going. The other Nick changed his name to Nick-name I think, but that changed the name for my comment too. Freaky!

Nick J (the one who argues about obscure pitching metrics, projection systems, player raters, etc.)

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 15:03:07 +0000

@Jim: Dice-K definitely is risky but not because of his pitch counts from last year. His lucky .267 BABIP and ridiculous 5.05 BB/9 IP are the reasons he's likely to fall back. Although a part of me thinks he might be worth the gamble b/c of his K rate and he doesn't have a history of such extreme wildness...

By: Jim

Jim — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 14:57:31 +0000

A little surprised Dice-K isn’t on the list, considering his shaky peripherals and control issues last year.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 14:50:28 +0000

@Baron Von Vulturewins: ABCD. I like that... @cockyphoenix: Bueno! @IowaCubs: Thanks. I'd push the top 9 back 7 rounds from where the stats would suggest taking them, the next 7 I'd take 3-5 rounds back, and the last 4 I'd take 2-3 rounds back. So Lilly is still a solid late-round play but I'd be a lot more enthused if he wasn't so dependent on breaking pitches... @Fman99: Not going to argue with a Met fan who likes Pelfrey. Should be available with your last pick or two in a mixed league. Given his K-rate, should we start calling him White Wang? @sean: I did my best to focus on pitchers that can conceivably be drafted. Even if they are later-round picks, it's still worth avoiding risk if possible. You're also adding a lot of either solid (BABIP) or subjective criteria for why guys aren't on your draft list. @tripbs: I wouldn't take this as gospel...hell, i wouldn't take the gospel as gospel. But I'd take this into account - should help when deciding b/w two players... @James: Fair point re: Myers. If he had pitched, say, 3,000 pitches in 2008, I'd have left him off the list. But he pitched a LOT last year coming off of that and he's not Smoltz (who was always the riskiest of the Braves big 3).

By: Eric W

Eric W — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 04:56:05 +0000

@Nick: go with Nick-name

By: Nick-Name

Nick-Name — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 04:45:31 +0000

Hey, apparently there’s another Nick on this thing. Was wondering why my name had so many comments next to it. I need to think of a new name. Any suggestions? (cue scorching burnage)

By: Eric W

Eric W — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 03:35:02 +0000

a little surprised dusty bakers whole staff is not on the list. disagree on Jon Lester not that i have stats to back me up but because i high-fived him once and his shoulder seemed pretty strong. Great post

By: Nick-Name

Nick-Name — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 00:57:41 +0000

I was going to keep Nolasco. Now Im nervous!

By: jamesllegade

jamesllegade — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 00:16:11 +0000

I don’t care… I am taking pitchers 17 – 20. But no one else…

Seems the real danger zone is high bender % and either 1st time 2700 pitches or a big spike in pitches. Oh and the relief stuff. But I can handle a guy tossing spinners if hes not on any of the other watch lists.

Vazquez in Atlanta is just too perfect.

Lilly and Baker are available late (feel fine taking risk if it is past the 14th round).

Garza doesn’t over toss his junk and, well… I’m just sweet on him and you can’t tell me otherwise.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 22:18:07 +0000

@sean: You sure you don’t mean analcysts not analrapists – http://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-terms/. Because, from what I hear, Mssrs. Berry and Karabell are gentlemen.

By: sean

sean — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 21:44:09 +0000

@tripbs: the funniest thing about that other site is that they’ve got ten analrapists — none of whom have a single independent thought.

By: tripbs

tripbs — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 20:38:46 +0000

I’m glad that other site has Karabell. If that other site had info like this it would be rendered useless as everyone in their brother would read it. Keep the good stuff hidden, let ESPN hype “sleeper” picks Davis and Wieters to 2nd round status.

By: PWNightmare

PWNightmare — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 19:40:55 +0000

Like Tony above, I spit my coffee out when I saw Ed’s pitch count from last year: 3386!?! It was, indeed, enough to put the exclamation point in front of the question mark, which I guess really sums up Dusty’s coaching strategy.

Again, another mind-blowing analysis, guys. Karabell just lost his job… or is getting a raise for his piece entitled “20 Risky Pitchers of 2009″.

By: Tony

Tony — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 19:33:14 +0000

I had verlander, Felix, gallardo and McGowan…. YICkkkkKKKK…. Thank god i grabbed Volquez, mussina horsed out a good year, picked up owings, and others from hot run to hot run….. First place regular season. KO’d first round of playoffs because I ended up having to throw every guy i had every inning on the last day i pitched 6-7 guys, all i needed was ONE decent outting and every guy gave up like 6 runs, couldn’t lower the ERA, done….

By: Fman99

Fman99 — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 18:49:31 +0000

Yeah, my top 3 last year were King Felix, Harang and Gallardo. You can guess how that worked out for me.

By: Tony

Tony — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:47:57 +0000

McGowan did dissappoint, and Harang, WOW…. another example of why to wait on pitching.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:47:17 +0000

Hi all – will get to the replies, thanks, and defenses later today. A bit crazed with work today…

Thought you guys would find it interesting. Neyer, Olney, Stark, and Steve Phillips are having a mock draft on ESPN which factors in salary. Three pitchers on this list made their top 20 – http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3864280

@willclarkismyhero: Ouch. I know Hill and McGowan would’ve been on the list for spiked pitch counts. Hill and Snell threw too many curves. Harang, Vazquez, and Greinke wouldn’t have been flagged. Harang’s biggest issue was Dusty…

By: willclarkismyhero

willclarkismyhero — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:40:47 +0000

Thanks, Rudy. Where was this article last year when my staff looked like this on draft day:

Harang
Vazquez
Hill
McGowan
Snell
Greinke

Obviously a major dissapointment…