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I almost didn’t write this post because I don’t think you should be looking for sleeper 1st basemen.  It’s a no-no that makes my no-no area shrink.  Then I got to thinking and then I started watching Chopped, then I took a nap, then I had a snack, then I remembered I was writing a post about sleeper 1st basemen, but forgot why I didn’t want to write the post in the first place so I wrote it.  Now, you should not target these guys for your 1st base slot, but you could fill your corner infidel or Utility slot with one of these guys.  But, whatever you do, don’t punt 1st base.  This is a supplement to the top 20 1st basemen of 2012 fantasy baseball. These are 1st basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2012 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  These are guys that are currently being drafted after the top 200.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2012 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 1st basemen to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into the post, we have a big announcement about the RCLs.  Okay, maybe not that big.  But kinda big.  No, we didn’t sell out to Kotex and will now be bringing you all the latest and greatest Kotex news.  Though I do hear Kotex makes a great product!  What, you like to be wet?  No, this isn’t about our podcast that will be arriving shortly.  (Our theme song is bizzonkers, seriously.  Like seriously, seriously.)  Our announcement is Rudy and I and a group of fantasy baseball ‘perts will be taking part in this year’s Razzball Commenter League (The RCL).  Funston — check!  Behrens — check!  Pianowski — yeah, we got more than just Yahoo bloggers.  Also, in the league are Eric Mack from SI.com, Dalton Del Don from Rotowire, Eno Sarris from Fangraphs, Brad Evans (okay, so we got a bunch of Yahoo guys), Tim Dierkes from MLB Trade Rumors and many, many more (well, maybe two more).

For what it’s Wuertz, we asked everyone at ESPN (whose email we had, which is quite a few) to participate but they all said no.  If you want to take to the streets and ‘occupy’ them, go bug the crap out of Matthew Berry on Twitter telling him to take part.  Mention how we’re sending them 40-plus leagues to ESPN that will all be going to Yahoo next year if they don’t pony up one ‘pert.

So, yes, you will be competing against the likes of us, and them and the other them that were already playing in The RCL.  If Rudy or I by some chance in H-E double hockey sticks were to win the whole thing, we’ll give the prize — A MEMBER’S ONLY JACKET! — to the runner up.  But if, say, Funston wins the jacket, I think he wants it.  Anyway, time is of the essence, if you want to compete against us, them and the other thems.  Sign up here.  Not in this post.

Mike Carp – You may ask yourself where is that upside 1st baseman?  And you may ask yourself where is the 30 homer potential?  And you may find yourself drafting Mike Carp.  And you may tell yourself this is not my beautiful 1st baseman, 30-homer upside potential!  And the days go by, wishing for more home runs.

Brandon Belt – I have Belt down for some astronomic projections.  Brandon Belt is my Chris Davis and I am his Bill James.  My projections buckle if Belt doesn’t get enough play. (I think that’s a pun point!)

Chris Davis – Speaking of the devil, I don’t have Chris Davis listed anywhere in my projections because I think he’ll probably cause more damage with his K-rate than he’s worth.  You know who has him projected for 20 homers and a .265 average?  Oh, c’mon, you don’t even have to ask.  Bill James’s sun rises and falls on his love for Chris Davis.  If Davis can get 450 ABs, he could hit 25 homers and .240.  To get 450 ABs, a lot would have to break right for him and he’d actually have to produce to force his way into the lineup on a regular basis.

Yonder Alonso – Yonder’s upside is Gaby Sanchez.  That’s not me giving him a compliment.  If he gives you that, then he’ll be a valuable late round flyer in NL-Only leagues while fluctuating between serviceable and yawnstipating in mixed leagues.

Bryan LaHair – He sounds like a wrestling jobber, and it’s not far off from his current value as a major leaguer either.  He’s a placeholder for Anthony Rizzo.  His best chance for fantasy value is having one Baha Man season before disappearing into oblivion.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones didn’t make it in my top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  If we were an NL-Only site, I’d talk about the beauty of The Robot.  But since I brought it up, what the hey!  If you’re in a deep daily league, you take someone like Jones, who does damage against righties and platoon him in and out of your lineup.  Last year, in 355 ABs vs. righties, he hit 14 homers, .262 with 5 steals while against lefties he had only 2 homers and hit .147.  Garrett Jones is the new Matt Diaz!

Lucas Duda – What’s the highest tone your voice can reach?  It should crack your voice a little Peter Brady-style you’re going so high.  Okay, now take that highest tone and say, “It’s Duda’s day.”  Now say it again and again until when asked any question by anyone you reply, “It’s Duda’s day.”  Now you’re crazy.  Sorry, but it shouldn’t have been that easy to make you crazy.  Duda has next to no speed, but might have an outside chance for 25 homers.  Don’t find yourself in September looking at him, mumbling to yourself shoulda coulda Duda.

From Around The Web

  1. giantjj says:
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    at this point would you draft either Guerrero or Damon, banking on them being signed somewhere? 20 teams (we are deep into the draft) thank you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @giantjj, Nope

  2. Steve says:
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    Aww, the RCL is all grown up. The original 16 would be so proud.

    Who’s your favorite out of this bunch? Carp?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Steve, Was there 16? It wasn’t 12? Duda and Belt…

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey, Yeah. I wasn’t in it but it was a half-year league. p0rk burn won it and got to write a post.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Steve, I remember p0rk burn won it, I didn’t remember it wasn’t 12 teams.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Steve, Wow, there’s some old school Razzball names on that. BVV!

              • Steve says:
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                @Grey, Yeah. He vanished like Michael J Fox’s family in that photo in Back To The Future.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  @Steve, I talked to him on Twitter recently. He gave up FBB about two years ago but was thinking of coming back.

  3. DrEasy says:
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    Looks like I won’t be able to resist the sirens of fantasy baseball this year (I managed to stay away last year). *shakes fist at Razzball*

  4. Howard says:
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    @Grey Great news about the RCL! I will write to ESPN as I’m currently in six leagues over there and no dead ones in the lot! Did a mock yesterday and wanted to get your opinion on my team:

    1. Evan Longoria (TB – 3B) 12
    2. Prince Fielder (Det – 1B) 13
    3. CC Sabathia (NYY – SP) 36
    4. Jay Bruce (Cin – OF) 37
    5. B.J. Upton (TB – OF) 60
    6. Howie Kendrick (LAA – 1B,2B,OF) 61
    7. Jason Heyward (Atl – OF) 84
    8. Gio Gonzalez (Was – SP) 85
    9. Ubaldo Jimenez (Cle – SP) 108
    10. Andrew Bailey (Bos – RP) 109
    11. Jordan Zimmermann (Was – SP) 132
    12. Billy Butler (KC – 1B) 133
    13. Huston Street (SD – RP) 156
    14. Max Scherzer (Det – SP) 157
    15. Zack Cozart (Cin – SS) 180
    16. Devin Mesoraco (Cin – C) 181
    17. Brennan Boesch (Det – OF) 204
    18. Colby Lewis (Tex – SP) 205
    19. Mike Minor (Atl – SP) 228
    20. Matt Capps (Min – RP) 229
    21. Adam Dunn (CWS – 1B) 252
    22. Vernon Wells (LAA – OF) 253
    23. Jake Peavy (CWS – SP) 276

    I was drafting 12th and was thrilled to get Longoria/Prince 12-13th. Reached a little for CC 36th but the next pitcher on the board was Hamels who is my red flag.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Howard, Hamels had a better season than CC last year. You went pretty early on some of these picks where I think if you were in an actual draft and not a mock, you’d get caught with your pants down.

    • ChillmanCometh says:
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      @Howard, Where were you doing your mock? ESPN? MDC? Yahoo?

      Regardless, I’m with Grey. BJ in the 5th and Gio in the 8th standout to me, and while I love me some Huston Street, to be riding with only three closers and one of them being named Matt Crapps would make me woefully nervous, especially if nothing else on my team really stands out to me.

  5. EmporersMonkey says:
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    I could see LaHair being this years Trumbo and hitting 25-30 HR if he gets to a decent start and keeps Rizzo off his back.

    So are all you experts in your own exclusive league or will you be mixed in with the general population? And since the Yahoo guys are involved, can’t they pull some strings and make it so the RCL leagues are publicly viewable?

    If none of the guys from ESPN are interested in joining, I guess I could do you all a favor and join in their stead(I know more than Berry anyways).

    • chata says:
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      @EmporersMonkey,

      “So are all you experts in your own exclusive league or will you be mixed in with the general population?”

      yep .
      of course not .
      that would jeopardize their credibility .
      some of these guys will just be political hacks ,
      towing the industry/company line .
      your job , as always , will be to discern the
      independent thinkers , and to decide which ones
      are worthy of your hard-earned donations .

    • @EmporersMonkey, Yes, we’ll have one ‘exclusive’ ‘experts’ league where all our exploits will warrant quotes.

      It also puts pressure on all of us to make sure the league does well on competitive index :)

      Yahoo informed this year that their leagues at least have the option now of being publicly viewable. We found out too late this year to have this factor into our decision. It’ll still require some thinking next year as we do prefer ESPN’s 20 game position eligibility. (from a usability standpoint – i’m pretty much satisfied with all the services…even the niche ones that i get rooked into playing on for expert leagues…)

      • EmporersMonkey says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Right on. Yahoo just seems alot more user friendly to me, but thats probably because its what I have been playing on since I have started.

        • @EmporersMonkey, I can see that. I used to have a preference. Part of me wishes there was just one b/c it would be easier to check our leagues. Here’s our ‘expert’ league distribution as it currently stands: 1 ESPN, 3 Yahoo, 2 CBS, 1 OnRoto, 1 AllStarStats. We spend half our time just navigating from one site to the next.

  6. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    Expert league! That’s cool. Of course, I was worried you were bringing in a big-name commissioner like Ueberroth to take the RCL to the next level.

    • @VinWins, The only person we’d consider for RCL commissioner is Michael Chiklis.

      • VinWins

        VinWins says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Ha! I guess I could understand that.

  7. nyydj2 says:
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    Scared me there with Kotex taking over sponsorship, I mean, their not number one but they are way up there. Loved the Talking Carp blurb. Berry is a wuss.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @nyydj2, Ha!

  8. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Mention how we’re sending them 40-plus leagues to ESPN that will all be going to Yahoo next year if they don’t pony up one ‘pert.

    Do they have one?

    • Bada Bing says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, Zing!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, Snap

  9. El Famous Burrito says:
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    Mike Carp, once in a lifetime talent.

    Nice.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @El Famous Burrito, Thanks!

  10. SpecialFNK says:
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    my 1st year in a 16 team keeper league (keep 5). yahoo, roto, 5×5.
    very deep. 18 starting positions (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P) plus 9 bench spots. (plus 4 DL spots).
    that’s 432 rostered players not including DL spots. 1300 max IP.
    any strategy for this type of league for drafting late?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @SpecialFNK, Make sure your players towards the end are getting ABs and the pitchers are getting IP.

  11. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    great news… super stoked for the RCL’s this year… Going to have to put some focus on my draft strategy for mixed leagues…

    I’m a big fan of Mike Carp this year. I think another good sleeper could be Adam LaRoche, if the dude is healthy, he could hit 20 plus.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Talented Mr. Dope Man, Nice

  12. PublicEnemy#1 says:
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    Thanks to the loose usage of the term ‘pert, I’d like to add my name to the list of competing ‘perts in this year’s RCL. I blog a small piece over at worldbaseballnetwork.com as Rotoyoda that gets maybe 20 or 30 hits per write up. Okay so half the hits are probably just repeats of me clicking on the link to make any adjustments I feel necessary and hoping somebody finally left me a comment!

    I figure if Berry is considered a ‘pert then so am I. Applying Berry’s opinions to your fantasy team is like going to Baskin Robbins and of all their 31 flavors, you decide to order the Bubble Gum flavor and wind up blowing multi-colored crusty bubble gum chunks all over your newly drafted fantasy roster hours later.

    • @PublicEnemy#1, Good luck with your blogging. Everyone starts small. It’s crazy how many good fantasy baseball posts around the web go commentless. Don’t take it personal.

      BTW, no one enjoys the inaneness of calling fantasy baseball writers ‘experts’ (including ourselves). Maybe we should follow the lead of the Carp write-up and call it the ‘Talking Head’ League instead.

  13. PublicEnemy#1 says:
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    Here’s hoping you plan to reveal the expert group’s draft results in a write up. Razzball’s all growed up indeed! Stay Classy!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @PublicEnemy#1, Yup

  14. Incognito5 says:
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    Mike Carp and Talking Heads……very poetic!

    I think I’m gonna cry. Now I’m gonna see Carp available in those later rounds and may not be able to resist.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Incognito5, Ha

  15. RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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    I actually like Duda this year quite a bit. He’s been putting on a show in BP in spring training this year. Power to burn…don’t sleep on the Duda. By the end of the year, I predict he’ll be the inspiration for many a fantasy baseball team name change.

    • 3FingersBrown says:
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      @RandomItalicizedVoice, …Especially in OBP leagues… Bringing in the fences in right will be a nice boost to his power #’s too.

  16. 3FingersBrown says:
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    @Grey, Good luck showing the ‘perts how it’s done. King Kong ain’t got nuthin’ on you! Nice Talking Heads reference for Carp. I like Belt a lot too – especially with OF eligibility.

    With leagues visible to the public, would you guys go to Yahoo next year? I think they have a much easier interface than ESPN. Kind of lame that Berry and co. won’t man up and compete in the RCL. Sounds like someone’s skurred. F him …and F Jackie The Jokeman.

    As for 20 game position eligibility on ESPN – can’t that number of customized?

    Hey FYI Ike Davis played last night in spite of feeling Sweet Valley High. Late round flyer alert… Johan’s on the hill today against the Cards.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @3FingersBrown, Thanks! We looked to switching after the fact and the position eligibility thing is an issue. At this point, it would be more trouble than it’s worth to switch for this year.

  17. tourinct says:
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    Are there going to Fantasy Razzball Leagues this year?

    • @tourinct, It’s still up in the air. Will make a final decision this week. Assuming we do, we’ll need commissioners like we do with RCL. Anyone want to volunteer?

      • VinWins

        VinWins says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, You can count on me.

        • @VinWins, cool. will keep you posted.

  18. Eddy says:
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    Grey/Rudy

    Drafted in my 14-team last night. It’s a roto league with a 28-man roster. Has Holds and OPS as extra categories, as well as MI/CI.

    So, lay some DeRulo on me, mmmm Whatcha saaaaaaay?

    C- Ryan Doumit (23rd)
    1B- Eric Hosmer (5th)
    2B- Brandon Phillips (4th)
    3B- Jose Bautista (1st)
    SS- Tyler Pastornickey (22nd)
    CI- Adam Lind (10th)
    MI- Danny Espinosa (14th)
    OF- Andrew McCutchen (2nd)
    OF- Adam Jones (6th)
    OF- Jason Heyward (7th)
    Util- Brett Gardner (8th)
    Util- Lorenzo Cain (21st)

    BN- Pedro Alvarez (26th)
    BN- J.D Martinez (20th)

    P- Tim Lincecum (3rd)
    P- Gio Gonzalez (9th)
    P- Matt Garza (11th)
    P- Brandon McCarthy (16th)
    P- Jhoulys Chacin (17th)
    P- Mike Minor (18th)

    RP- Kyle Farnsworth (12th)
    RP- Javy Guerra (13th)
    RP- Jim Johnson (15th)

    RP- Greg Holland
    RP- FDLS
    RP- Jose Veras
    RP- Mike Dunn
    RP- David Carpenter

    -This damn draft was 3 1/2 hours long. Was up till 1 a.m. ET doing it, so the last 3-4 rounds were almost all throwaway picks. I see myself getting rid of a MR for a hot April bat so I’m not too worried. Whom would you let go of?

    -I couldn’t pass up Lincecum at 34 overall, and the same with Garza in the 150s. Though the Garza pick hurt because about 5-6 closers were drafted and left me with Farnsworth as my first choice.

    – This is a 1800 IP max, so is 6 SP with these RP good enough? Or would a seventh SP be necessary?

    -I figure I’ll hang onto J.D Martinez, but Pedro Alvarez was just to have a second 3B. Dude’s already 0-3 with two Ks in spring training. Barf.

    -Went upside at SS after Cozart got drafted one pick before I was going to nab him. Still got the blehtastic SS in the pool like Alex Gonzalez, Bartlett and Brignac.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eddy, You should’ve got Cozart. You can lose the last three MRs for flyers if you like. Holds guys will always be around. I like the pitching, think you can use one more SP and definitely one less MR. I like the balance of speed and power with the hitting, but it looks like a bit of an issue on average.

    • chata says:
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      @Eddy,

      was in an 1800 IP limit league last year , and so was that Kiwi guy .

      you will be streaming pitchers pretty much the whole month of
      September , else lag WAY behind in the Wins and K’s categories ,
      especially if early on , you decide to spot start your 5th and 6th
      starters to protect your WHIP and ERA .

      throw WHIP and ERA the hell out the window .
      the damage the occasional ‘flare-up’ does is minimal , at 1800 innings .
      middle relievers will have minimal effect , imo .

      Steve may or may not back up my assertions .

      • Eddy says:
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        @chata,

        Thanks for the tips. Had a nice back and forth with the commish about having such a high IP limit.

        Have a trade sitting on the table that can net me Morrow, still mulling over the trade.

        Btw, how do you know Kiwi was in there?

        • Steve says:
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          @Eddy, Because he invited me to join the league.

  19. Paul Wilson says:
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    Free ESPN league looking for a (few) good owner(s). Join me on the dark side!

    Scoring posted below, for roster info, etc., or to request an invite, please email lukeneedsbail@mail2jail.com. Thanks.

    SCORING (Edit)
    Batting
    Total Bases (TB) 1 Walks (BB) 1
    Runs Scored (R) 1 Runs Batted In (RBI) 1
    Stolen Bases (SB) 2 Strikeouts (K) -1
    Sacrifices (SAC) 0.1 Game Winning RBI (GWRBI) 1
    Caught Stealing (CS) -1 Ground into Double Plays (GIDP) -0.1
    Outfield Assists (OFAST) 2 Errors (E) -1
    Pitching
    Innings Pitched (IP) 3 Earned Runs (ER) -2
    Wins (W) 5 Losses (L) -3
    Saves (SV) 5 Blown Saves (BS) -2
    Strikeouts (K) 1 Hits Allowed (H) -1
    Walks Issued (BB) -1 Shutouts (SO) 5
    Hit Batsmen (HB) 1 Home Runs Allowed (HR) -1
    Holds (HD) 1 Complete Games (CG) 5
    No Hitters (NH) 100 Perfect Games (PG) 100

  20. Eng says:
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    It’s been a long time, Grey, too long (yes, that was meant to sound weird). I have a key question(s) i’d love a few sentences from you on: In a 12-team roto 4 keeper format, which players get the biggest bump? Reaching for Stanton in the 1st early 2nd means he’ll never be a bargain, but what about those available later like Jesus Wieters, or even later, Mesoraco? Do you still prefer Bumgarner over Hanson in this format? What about Mike Minor? And then there’s Howard, Wainwright and V-Mart….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eng, It’s only been a long time if you measure the amount of time since we’ve talked. I like Bum and Minor and Stanton, don’t really know what you’re asking though.

  21. MattTruss223 says:
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    Wow, sweet new on the RCLs, raises the competition a bit, I definitely want to beat those Yahoo goons. Especially Funston and his stupid face. I usually like Pianowski’s stuff though. Very cool, and very lame that no ESPN guys will join. They suck. You want a good laugh? Google: “ESPN 2012 fantasy roundtable youk” and watch those clowns dance around why they have Youk ranked at #100, outside the top 10 3Bs. It’s one of the few times I’ve ever found myself agreeing w/Berry. Joke.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @MattTruss223, Nice, will have to watch that.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @MattTruss223, Oh my God, that should be required viewing for no other reason than the unintentional comedy.

    • JoeC says:
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      @MattTruss223, I also have Youk outside the top 10 for 3B in my rankings. It’s not an issue of production; he’s good when he’s on the field. It’s the fact that I’m only expecting ~450 ABs, based on his injury history for the last 3 years. At this point, I don’t understand why you would expect anything else, unless you’re part of Red Sawx nation or you like to pahk your cahr near da hahbor. :)

      • MattTruss223 says:
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        @JoeC, Who do you have immediatly ahead of him that you aren’t concerned about injuries with? David Wright? HA! Michael Young? Double HA! A-Rod? Aramis? Well, you get the idea, they all have some injury risk, don’t you think? Being outside the top 10 3B isn’t the big deal though, because you could argue to arrange 6-12 in a variety of ways, it’s more the 100 overall that is crazy. They ranked him 18th overall two years ago!

        @Grey, my favorite part is at the end when the dude says, “Well Aramis is coming off a good year and Youk isn’t”. Well, there ya go then, the team you draft this year can go back in time and clean up in last year’s leagues! I’ll draft for this year thank you.

  22. MacD says:
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    Found out my league is going to 20 Teams… wow
    Mixed Auction/5X5 with OBP instead of AVG/H2H/20 team/10 Keepers (4 year limit on keepers) with inflation each year/Weekly Roster/
    1 Votto 2yrs left
    2 Hill 2
    3
    SS
    OF Kemp 1
    OF Desmond Jennings 3 (No brainer)
    OF
    Util
    8 Pitchers
    SP-Lincecum 1
    SP-Gallardo 1
    SP
    SP
    2P
    2RP

    So I need 4 of the following and how many years would you lock them up?
    MYoung $28/Chisenhall $2/Freese $6/Ian Desmond$4/Tabata $11
    P Hellickson $11/McCarthy $2/Chacin $15/Kimbrel $15/Putz $11
    Desmond/Tabata are decent buys but I will be light on HR
    I don’t keep many pitchers but Kimbrel is tempting
    With 20 teams Young at $28 could be a good buy but not for 4 years

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @MacD, Chisenhall, McCarthy, Desmond, Hellickson…

      • MacD says:
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        @Grey, Would you lock all 4 up for the maximum four years? Hellickson would be around $16-$20 the last year.

        On a side note I have read enough of you and Razzballers (mom’s term)to think (not verbalize yet) in your words….. I hope that is a good thing. :) It’s like a Grey’s voice instead of italicized voice.
        Thanks for the help.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @MacD, Ha! Awesome! I wouldn’t lock up any of them for longer than a year. Don’t have that much faith…

          • MacD says:
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            @Grey, My Grey Voice says “This guy should work on his keeper selection”.

  23. giantjj says:
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    would you take a shot on derrek lee late in a 20 team league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @giantjj, No way…

  24. Daniel says:
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    Where would you rank Hanley in rankings for 3b?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Daniel, After Longoria…

  25. Cyr says:
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    Grey,

    Did a yahoo mock draft (no CI slot) last night in which I picked 9th. Grabbed Votto there. Fielder was still on the board when I picked again at 16, and I decided to snag him too. I was wondering is it a good idea to cash in on value like that, even if I’ve filled my 1b slot? The next 5 hitters selected after i took Fielder were Reyes, Pedroia, Granderson, HanRam, and Stanton. Also, my league uses OBP rather than avg. Should I take a MI there instead of Fielder?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cyr, Don’t take two 1st basemen with the first two picks.

  26. schlitzy says:
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    Oh how I would love it if you got AJ Mass in that league. He’d give you a run for it – dude is very insightful. Speed is scarce and get a top pitcher and catcher early on. That gives you an advantage at at least 2 postions. Blech

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @schlitzy, Ha!

  27. Trini says:
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    Gamel or Carp?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Trini, Carp… That could change by the first week of the season though…

  28. AA says:
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    Grey-
    This question is unrelated to 1B but I’ll ask anyways. Is Mike Aviles worth a late flier if he secures the starting SS gig in Boston? Do you think there is any value there?

    Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @AA, I wouldn’t draft him.

  29. the grate one says:
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    hey grey…can you rank these guys in order of who you think will get most saves?

    Melancon (if/when bailey goes down), fuentes, balfour

    thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @the grate one, Fuentes, Balfour…

  30. OB says:
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    What do you guys think of the Smoak Monster this year? I have him at $2 in my 10-team AL-only keepers league.

    Thanks! And great job as usual!

  31. The Den says:
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    Yo Grey, I love the new format in the comments section. Much more user friendly. Which two do you keep? R. Zimmerman, B. Lawrie, E. Andrus

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Den, Thanks! Easier to comment from a mobile device too… Zimm, Lawrie… Assuming you have room for both.

      • JoeC says:
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        @Grey, Whoa! Why Zimm over Andrus? I know 3B is thin (as always), but SS ain’t exactly chock-full of studs either. And Andrus is younger and less injury-prone… seems like a slam dunk for Andrus in this situation.

  32. Raj says:
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    Unfortunately, the 1B pool isn’t as deep as it may seem. In your typical 12-team league, you have an elite class of Pujols, Miggy, Votto, Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Teixeira…then you’re dealing with reasonable risk/reward types like Berkman, Konerko, Michael Young and Hosmer. At this point, you have at least two owners without a 1B (probably more) and they’ve “punted” 1B by default. The next options are Ike Davis, Lind, Morneau, Freeman, Smoak and…Carlos Lee? Ugh. You’re basically buying a a couple lotto tickets and praying one of them hits (literally).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Raj, There’s plenty of guys in the top tiers, no matter where you drafted in a 12 team league, to get a top guy. You’d have to go all outfield or middle infield or take a starter to miss one, things I tell people not to do. If you really don’t mean to punt 1st and can’t get one by Hosmer, then you’ve had some really terrible luck or someone in your league drafted 2 in the first two rounds.

  33. Mike says:
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    Late rounds: Weak spots: appear to be runs / HRs.
    Carp / JD Martinez / A Soriano?
    Valencia or Gamel as back up 3B to Wright.
    Have Altuve at MI (needed his speed), but his Cozart or Aviles worth a bench spot?

    That’s assuming no league mates do something silly, like pick any of these guys… ;)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mike, My rankings should make it obvious which of these guys to draft.

  34. kwadjo says:
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    I think in addition to the snazzy jacket the winner of the RCL should get a place in ‘perts league next year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @kwadjo, Under consideration…

  35. L-Boogie says:
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    5×5, 12 team, 2C, mock draft, 7th pick. Watcha think?

    Miguel Montero C 5
    A.J. Pierzynski C 21
    Mark Teixeira 1B 2
    Brandon Phillips 2B 9
    Adrian Beltre 3B 3
    Elvis Andrus SS 8
    Ryan Braun OF 1
    Jay Bruce OF 6
    Alex Rios OF 19
    Drew Stubbs OF 11
    Jayson Werth OF 12
    Yunel Escobar U 16
    Mat Gamel U 17
    Madison Bumgarner P 4
    Matt Garza P 7
    Ubaldo Jimenez P 10
    Brandon Morrow P 14
    Jason Motte P 15
    Brad Peacock P 22
    Jake Peavy P 18
    Jonathan Sanchez P 20
    Sergio Santos P 13

    My average may be in the pooper by May but I think it’s solid.

    I’m finding the APPLES tool very helpful. Except pitchers keep going early in mock drafts so I had to do the same to comply with the tool.

    Had to jump on Tex in the 2nd round after all the big boys were gone.

    Feel like I jumped the gun on Montero in the 5th but Grey put the fear of god in me the other day when I asked him when to draft catchers in a 2C league.

    Mat Gamel? Yeah, guess I didn’t pay enough attention to today’s 1B post.

    Thanks dude.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @L-Boogie, Wow, Montero in the 5th is kinda crazy. If Tex doesn’t bounce back in average, which I don’t think he will, yeah, your average may be bad. Pretty solid team though with those concerns aside.

  36. M.D. says:
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    Who would you rather have:

    AL only 12 team 5×5 dynasty keeper:

    Jered Weaver $29 – can keep this year and next for $29, then have to raise $5 / year

    CJ wilson $2 – but i have to extend him this year, i can choose 1 year for $7, 2 years for $12, or 3 years for $17.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @M.D., Wilson

      • M.D. says:
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        @Grey, how many years would you extend Wilson? He’s 31 yrs old. I’m thinking $12?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @M.D., $7

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @M.D., Actually, make that $12, yeah.

  37. Scott says:
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    Grey, we have a weird league format, so your rankings might not answer this question. It’s an NL-only keeper league but we use one AL player (any position) as a DH. I can pick Door No. 1 and take Ian Kinsler, whom I know you love. BUT, I can also take Door No. 2 and take B.J. Upton. Here’s my thinking: Upton is (probably) going to be a National next year (or even this year), so a potential move to the NL would be gigantic. Plus, I’ve got guys whose OBP (instead of average) can make up for B.J. I’m keeping Kemp, CarGo, Hanley, Pence, Victorino and Miggy Montero. So what say you? Play it safe and go with Kinsler’s 25/25 or roll the dice and go with Upton’s 20/40? I’m leaning Upton.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Scott, Kinsler

  38. Goose says:
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    Grey, just snake-drafted my team in a 14-team, 6×6 roto keeper league (I picked first). ‘preciate any thoughts:

    C- JP Arencibia (18)
    1B – Miguel Cabrera (1)
    2B – Howard Kendrick (7)
    3B – Pablo Sandoval (3)
    SS – Dee Gordon (9)
    MI – Jemile Weeks (13)
    CI – Adam Lind (11)
    OF – Jay Bruce (2)
    OF – Josh Hamilton (4)
    OF – Logan Morrison (8)
    OF – Colby Rasmus (14)
    UTIL – Michael Brantley (19)
    Bench – Ian Stewart (24)

    SP – Madison Bumgarner (5)
    SP – CC Sabathia (6) <—–pick #84!?!??!1!!!!!
    RP – Huston Street (10)
    RP – Joe Nathan (12)
    P – Brett Myers (16)
    P – Ernesto Frieri (20)
    P – Rex Brothers (21)
    P – Fautino de los Santos (22)
    P – Greg Holland (23)
    Bench – Brandon Morrow (15)
    Bench – Jordan Zimmerman (17)
    Bench – Jhoulys Chacin (25)

    Our scoring uses OBP instead of AVG, and adds Total Bases and Holds.

    As you can tell, the format skews pretty hard against SPs, while MR gets a huge boost in value, as everyone tries to fill all five of their "P" slots with low ratios and holds guys while rotating their SPs in. So undrafted SPs include: Derek Holland, Lilly, Stauffer, Floyd, Danks, Hughes, Leake, Volquez, etc etc… Meanwhile, Tyler Clippard goes in Rd 10, and Latroy Hawkins goes in Rd 21. But still. cannot. believe. I got. CC. at. pick #84. And Jordan Zimmerman at #225!

    I feel like my team is pretty stacked, to be honest. I think I reached slightly for Dee Gordon at pick #113, but even with the probable OBP hit, I'm happy to have his steals, plus the keeper-league upside. Would maybe re-do my Brantley pick and take Cain there instead (although kinda tomato/tomahto?). And I think I'm weak in Holds, since I didn't get one of the top guys. Soriano and Bastardo got picked right in front of me, which led me to take Myers, so it's not all that bad, as I'm happy to have 3 closers when most teams only have 2.

    The only move I'm thinking about right now is, considering the depth out there on the wire at SP, would you drop Chacin for Joey Devine? My horse is de los Santos, but Balfour and Fuentes both got drafted. Devine has to be in the hunt to land the closer role in the next month, right? Any news to that effect and he'll be snapped up quick — should I make a preemptive move there? Or just hang on to Chacin for now?

    Anyway, appreciate your thoughts, as always!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Goose, I agree with your comments. Crazy value there with CC and Zimm. Think the team does look stacked. I don’t mind Brantley, though I probably would’ve taken Cain, I’d hold Chacin.

  39. bazzrall says:
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    What do you think, Grey? Having a tought time with this one.

    14-team keeper:

    My OF: Braun, Wells, Hunter, De Aza, Viciedo, Belt. Have to start 4 of those guys. My SP: Haren, Shields, Dan Hudson, Hellickson, Feliz, Billingsley, Baker

    Proposed trade: My Haren OR Shields and my 2013 3rd rounder for his Boesch and Beachy and his 2013 1st rounder.

    Do I do it? If so, who do I give him, and who do I drop?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @bazzrall, Give Shields, take Beachy and Boesch…

      • bazzrall says:
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        @Grey, And drop.. De Aza? Leaves me with no speed really. Espy, Aybar, and Braun for steals this season < Beachy and Boesch?

        • bazzrall says:
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          Or I could drop Aviles. Forgot him down at the bottom on the bench.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            @bazzrall, Drop Aviles

            • bazzrall says:
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              @Grey, Ah crap. The guy wants Haren now. I think that’s too much to give up. Still worth it if I cut out the draft picks?

            • bazzrall says:
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              @Grey, For Shields, I mean – without the picks.

              Shields for Beachy + Boesch straight up.

              I really appreciate your feedback, Grey. I’ll click on a couple hundred ads for you.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                @bazzrall, I’d take Beachy and Boesch for Shields.

  40. Eddy says:
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    Grey,

    Got an offer sitting on the table in my 14-team holds/OPS roto league.

    This is the team (lineup is in comment #18) that you said had a bit of an average issue and needed 1-2 more SP.

    I get: Morrow and Brandon Belt
    I give: Hosmer and FDLS

    He said he could switch out Belt with Kendry. I have Lind in my CI spot.

    Would you prefer Belt or Kendry? And I can assume you rather trade away Lind right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I wouldn’t trade Hosmer for any of these guys.

      • Eddy says:
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        @Grey, Got it. What if Lind was substituted for Hosmer?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          @Eddy, It’s okay, not sure how this helps you in average.

          • Eddy says:
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            @Grey, I meant throw Lind in the trade instead of Hosmer. By the way, do we have a nick name for Hosmer? Seems like a candidate for one. Not feeling Hosmer.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              @Eddy, Don’t have one yet, but I’m all ears. Is this trade to help your pitching? Otherwise, I’m not sure why you’re doing it. Lind to Belt is a step down. Morrow is a step up for Ks, do you need those?

              • Eddy says:
                (link)

                @Grey,

                Nah, I don’t got anything that can meet the Razzball standard.

                And yeah, it’s purely to upgrade my pitching. You said I needed more, and the best in the pool are pitchers like Niemann, Narveson, Vargas, Gorzelanny, etc.

                My current staff is

                P- Tim Lincecum (3rd)
                P- Gio Gonzalez (9th)
                P- Matt Garza (11th)
                P- Brandon McCarthy (16th)
                P- Jhoulys Chacin (17th)
                P- Mike Minor (18th)

                I guess I can just stream a spot the entire season then. It’s that since this is an 1800 IP limit I’m scared I don’t have enough SP.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  A pitcher will emerge at some point or you make a better trade for one… Not feeling this Morrow trade right now…

                  • Eddy says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey, Sounds good. Appreciate it, Grey.

  41. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Grey or Anyone,

    Need to make a decision on 2 keepers in my 2 keeper H2H league. FYI, in addition to regular cats, we play Hits, Singles, Doubles, Triples, OBP–Wins, Losses, Complete Games, and Shutouts.

    I’ve cut my options down to five:

    Stanton – 5th round
    MadBum – 14th round
    Beachy – 19th round
    Matt Moore – 19th round
    Trout – 19th round

    Which pair should I keep and what should my strategy be on draft day? TIA!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Eddy, Stanton, Bum… I’d make sure I got another ace and focus on high average guys.

    • Eddy says:
      (link)

      @Eddy, Uh oh, I think there’s a conflict here lol. I saw my name and I was like ” When did I ask for keeper advice?”

      Throw a last name initial in there!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        @Eddy, Yeah, I was confused at first too.

  42. anarchy burger says:
    (link)

    i’m wondering if theres gonna be any updates on the top 50 prospects list. i noticed it was written in september. i know you guys do a lot but i’m in a couple pretty deep leagues and last year guys like beachy, pineda, hosmer (who i found out about on this site!!) helped me win my 2 main leagues. one league is a 15 teamer with a ten man bench auction style. the other is a 12 man draft with a 10 man bench. no biggie if no updates but i’m loving me some jaimison taillon. anyone else we can check out?????????????

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @anarchy burger, Scott’s supposed to update it in the coming weeks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @anarchy burger, Just talked to Scott, he’s updating it for next Wednesday.

  43. and1mcgee says:
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    funny how i just ordered two members only jackets today from jackthreads.com for a total of $100. worth it! love the columns, grey.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @and1mcgee, You ordered two? Somebody’s got a hot date!

      • JoeC says:
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        @Grey, Heh… so is the extra one for his date? Like at the end of the date be like “Here, I got you this”… instant panty-dropper, one would assume.

  44. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @Grey: I don’t have a 1B in a 4 keeper 12 team H2H but instead I have a Giancarlo. Should I reach for guys like Konerko and Berkman or just wait until I find a 1B with reasonable value later on?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @SwaggerJackers, There aren’t many later one. Taking Konerko in the 1st round, which is the 5th round for you isn’t reaching…

      • SwaggerJackers says:
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        @Grey, But wouldn’t it be a good idea to take my first pitcher in the fifth round? Someone like a Greinke?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @SwaggerJackers, I’d take a 1st baseman first, unless someone like F-Her or Lincecum were there.

  45. L-Boogie says:
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    Draft order just announced!! 7th pick in a 12-team 5×5 roto league. It’s obviously going to come down to Votto or Longo for me. In round 2, Fielder and Long definitely won’t still be available.

    I re-reviewed your pairings post with a little more certainty now. I know you like these pairings, but I’m just not crazy about Kinsler, Reyes, HanRam, or Wright in round 2. Especially since there are good 3B in round 3+ (Zimm, Panda, Beltre, maybe even still Wright). I’d almost rather take the average risk with Longo/Tex.

    Maybe I’m asking too much, but can you hit me up with the best 3 round combo:

    Round 1: Votto or Longoria
    Round 2: Dread Pirate, Tex (I know, I know), Stanton
    Round 3: Bruce, pick a 3B (Panda, Zimm, Beltre, Youk), Uggla, Castro, Andrus

    Feel free to throw in anyone I might have missed. I promise not to ask you for the best 24 round combo next.

    Thanks dude.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @L-Boogie, Votto, Stanton, 3B…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @L-Boogie, Can go multiple ways though… Votto, McCutchen, 3B would also work…

      • L-Boogie says:
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        Guys in my league trade draft spots straight up every year. What do you think of trading down to the bottom few picks to potentially secure a Longo/Fielder or AGon pairing?

        Thanks dude.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Not crazy about it…

  46. L-Boogie says:
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    These posts are always so much shorter when I’m writing them in my head. Sorry.

  47. Loyal to Larkin – Hindenburg Disaster

    Martín Prado
    Justin Morneau
    Aaron Crow

    [ View Trade ]

    Drew Storen

    I am not drafting Prado in any of my leagues – he is a zero tool player – unless I missed something and Morneau is a project to say the least he is one banana peel short of ending his career – Did not do my homework on Crow – looks like he might some value for sure but I am sure what – closing – middle relief – setupman – starter

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      People keep trying to give you their scraps, huh?

      • @Grey, I need to get a Restraining order in this league to keep people from trading with me – I think in the world of fake fantasy baseball there are many out there that have much man love for Prado – Most of the players that are every offered to me are a combination of bench players for one of my starters – and they are bench players I can do without

  48. L-Boogie says:
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    It’s now 12:20 AM and I can’t step away from the computer. I hate Draft Order Selection Day.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @L-Boogie, Hate? More like love.

  49. Travis says:
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    First two picks in a 10 team roto with CI MI, are Braun and Feilder. Take the Dred Pirate, Wright, or Stanton with next pick? I have the 5th pick in the draft

    Thanks

    • Travis says:
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      @Travis, Stanton just picked right before me…Wright or Dred?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Travis, Wright

        • Travis says:
          (link)

          @Grey, Thank You sir

          • Travis says:
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            @Travis, Wright, Braun, and Fielder..same draft next players are Cruz,Sandavol, Uggla, or Felix

            • JoeC says:
              (link)

              @Travis,
              Dude, he’s not gonna draft your team for you! LOL!

  50. B.o.B. says:
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    2 part question…Part I: Was just in a mock for a 10 team H2H league. Had the 2 spot, took Braun and when it came back to me (19th pick) Kinsler, Pedroia, Han Ram, Reyes, McCutchen, Giancarlo, D Wright and Beltre are all still available. Just curious: WWGT (Who Would Grey Take)? Part II: Return of the Question…I ended up taking Kinsler there, then at the turn Pedroia and Han Ram were taken. My next pick (22), WWGT?

    1 part question: Approximately where do you like to start eying closers in a standard 10 team league?

    P.S. I thought it was spelled eyeing but that damn red squiggly line pops up underneath it! Eying just doesn’t look right IMO OMG LOL

Comments are closed.