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Folks, the time is finally here for Razzball’s 2014 Bold Predictions, and I’m happy to once again be your host. This year, it gets real crazy, as you might be able to tell from the title. That’s right. Dragon Ninja’s, yo. Word is, they have lasers, but that’s okay. We have something called an Eno. Not to be confused with being emo, which I hear involves a lot of mascara and Dashboard Confessionals. Sounds dangerous. And like a girl I dated in college. Regardless, here’s the deal– Eno Sarris of FanGraphs has agreed to take on your very own lovable and quite handsome Jason Longfellow (yes, that’s my name, don’t wear it out) in a duel for the ages. His bold predictions will battle my bold predictions for COMPLETE AND UTTER SUPREMACY. Sort of like Highlander. We certainly need more Sean Connery, that’s for sure. And what’s at stake in this epic battle? Heads? Lightning swords? Shinobi’s? Naw. It’s beer. That’s right, beer. Whomever get’s the most predictions right, well, the loser has to buy him a six-pack of the beer of his choice. In this case, Eno has chosen DC Brau. Great selection, but it might come with side effects such as too much hipster and listening to Mumford. My choice? Koko Brown, because Hawai’i is the greatest thing ever known to man besides ice cream and blow jobs.  Have I intrigued you? I HAVE INTRIGUED ME, because, you know, alcohol. And Sean Connery…

1. Ben Zobrist will hit more than 30 home runs.

Leading off with the player known as Zorilla. Because he totally looks like a Japanese lizard/dinosaur/sometimes robot monster that’s half, err, Zobrist I guess. I wanted to put his name in Kanji here, but it just came out as four questions marks. I guess it’s my computer’s way of telling me to put that in my Google Translator and smoke it. As you might be able to discern from my cogent assessment of what a Zorilla is, and this sentence full of eccentric verbiage, I like him this year, and here’s why. For a quick synopsis, allow me to quote me…

“Zobrist is still hitting his balls to all the same places. And, more importantly, he’s still hitting them the same distance. No injury, no degradation of skills from getting old or otherwise, which we would see in these numbers. Rather simply, he’s been unlucky. But, but, but, the BABIP doesn’t say that! True. But that’s taking all of his BABIP values into consideration… And the one stat that can help show us what’s going on is his fly ball BABIP. In 2012, it stood at .118. His career number? .111. What is it this year? .084.”

So, more home runs are coming… I’m just adding a litte bold spice here. Because italic spice is kinda bitter.

2. Will Venable will have a 30/30 season.

So what happens when I fail at a 20/40 prediction for Will Venable? A year later, I readjust, recycle, reduce, and reuse. And you guessed it, close the loop. Makes total sense. No it doesn’t. So while I dialed back the steals, I upped the ante on home runs to keep this bold. Yes I know he’s never stolen more than 29 bases. And that he’s 31, not exactly a power-peak age. And yeah, his HR/FB rate of 19.8% was 10th in the league, but his average fly ball distance was good for only 157th in the league. (A point that will come back to haunt me when you see Domonic Brown on this list.) But… he should be in-line to receive a career high in Plate Appearances, the new PetCo dimensions suit his pull-happy ways, and there is tangible improvement against left-handers. And the most important aspect, or maybe the least important aspect is– he plays for the Padres. Therefore, Venable receives ‘rational thought’ immunity with a +15 exaggeration amulet. And yes, I actually considered 40/40, but ran out of wine.

3. Oswaldo Arcia will have a better season than Wil Myers across the board.

It’s not that I don’t like Wil Myers, I just really love Arcia. Frankly though, I have really weak evidence to support this prediction. Yet, here I am, predicting more of everything from Arcia vs. Myers. Am basically saying Myers will be injured at some point in the year? Or maybe Arcia will make a leap and tap into his raw power? (He did, in fact, have the 14th highest average flyball distance last season. Wil Myers came in 41st.) With both players having naturally high BABIP skills, am I saying that Arcia is able to somehow improve his contact% enough, while Myers suffers some bad luck? Or, maybe, I’m just saying all of these things… because all I have left is a kitchen sink, and it’s heavy bro. I rest my case.

4. Freddie Freeman will not reach 15 home runs and will not have a batting average higher than .270.

I don’t understand the Freddie Freeman bandwagon, and won’t respond to it. So this will be short and simple. There are three main reasons for my stance: First, Freeman hit .443/.591/.695 with RISP last season. That’s not going to happen again. Second, his 2013 BABIP sat at .371. His career BABIP?– .334. This alone wouldn’t be as damaging if not for my third and final piece of evidence– His 2013 Contact% was 77.5. His career Contact% is 77.4. So he made the same amount of contact that he’s always made, but had a nearly .40 increase in BABIP, and, as a bonus, was able to hit an outrageous triple-slash with runners in scoring position. That should be enough to tell you that regression is coming. I’m just making the prediction that the regression will be a bag full of bricks. Bricks totally come in bags, right?

5. Troy Tulowitzki will play in at least 152 games.

It’s been, what, 267 years (actually, five, but still…) since Tulo had a fully healthy season (where he played in 151 games)? I have no tangible evidence to support this prediction, and I suppose no one really does… except maybe Tulowitzki’s body. Which sounds sexual. Which then probably needs more chocolate. So I guess what I’m trying to say is it just feels like he’s due to have a fully healthy season and play in a career-high amount of games. Or miss all of them.

6. Chris Carter will have a break-out ala Chris Davis‘ 2013 season. 

Asking for a bit much, aren’t we? After all, we’re talking about a guy who couldn’t hit better than .240 and had a strikeout rate around 36% in his first full season in the majors. Wait, what’s that? That’s Chris Davis I’m talking about? Yessir. And there are other eerily similar thing-a-ma-jigs going on.

2013 Season AVG FB Dist. SwStr% LD% GB% FB%
Chris Davis 308.66 (8th) 15.2 21.9 32.4 45.7
Chris Carter 298.60 (21st) 15.5 22.4 30.8 46.8

They just aren’t that far apart in a lot of ways. And while Davis has the edge in HR/FB by nearly 10%, it’s not unfair to assume that Carter can close the gap. Sure, it took roughly 1,644 Plate Appearances for Chris Davis to establish gaudy season totals, so my bold prediction is that Carter can do it this right away this upcoming season. So… what type of year am I expecting, so as not to be smited by the ‘vague-threshold’ Gods? Let’s say something like a .270 average and 40 home runs. Simple, right? RIGHT.

7. Domonic Brown will fail to hit more than 10 home runs in a Phillies uniform.

So here’s the deal. Brown’s 2013 HR/FB rate was 19.3%, good for 11th overall. The problem with that is his average fly ball distance in 2013 was 283 feet, good for only 132nd overall, which doesn’t mix. So what makes Brown different from Venable? Well, first of all, he doesn’t play for the Padres, which is all the reason you should need. But, if you believe in different litmuses, or is it litmii? Sounds like an umbrella drink. Regardless, you should know that his 2013 K% and BB% moved in the wrong direction from 2012 and 10 of his 27 home runs were considered ‘just enough’, which means they only cleared the fence by 10 feet or less. So how do I get as low as the number 10? Well, mix in the possible power regression with inconsistent health and the propensity to being thrown on the trading block at least 20 times a year, well, you see the process of this prediction.

8. Billy Hamilton will fail to steal more than 25 bases.

There are those who believe in Billy-Ham, and there are those who don’t. I think it’s obvious where I stand on the issue, but let me just establish that I most definitely believe in ham, the gift that keeps on giving. Exactly. So, you think Billy Hamilton will change the game in ways that we can’t even fathom? Okay, so maybe no one’s saying that. But I doubt we’ll see the 100, the 75, or even the 50 stolen bases that many are hoping for. And what’s my reasoning? Well, I sorta believe that one has to actually get to first base to steal second. CRAZY, I know. It’s no secret that his offensive stats have taken a beating at each progressive level in the minors, including a paltry .308 OBP and just 28 extra-base hits in Triple-A last year. What happens if he starts the season in a prolonged slump? Does anyone know how long his leash is? They threw Shin-Soo Choo out there in CF last season, so it’s not like Jay Bruce, Chris Heisey or my grandmother would be a stretch out there (and she’s been dead for ten years). So you can dream on him. My prediction is just to wake up.

9. Rick Porcello will have more wins, more strike outs, and a lower ERA than Doug Fister.

Money can’t buy you happiness. But it can buy you pleny of bacon, and that’s pretty freaking close. And so I have established my great premise. Rock solid if you ask me. And hey, you should know, I think Doug Fister is great. Both him and Corey Kluber, and to a lesser extent, Charlie Furbush have completely revolutionized the way we can use totally inappropriate wife-abuse puns. Or what the Irish call Tuesday night. Moving on before I complete SEO suicide, it all comes down to this: Do I believe in Porcello’s new found strike out rate (19.3%), part of his new set of peripherals, that led to a 2013 3.53 FIP and 3.19 xFIP? I do. And I think Porcello can do what Fister can do at half the cost. At the very least, there’s bacon involved, so we’re all winners.

10. Kole Calhoun will hit more home runs, have more RBIs and runs, and also have a higher batting average than Josh Hamilton.

I think Kole Calhoun is a fine player. I believe he’ll have a long career providing a constant dose of solid non-elite production, and I think he’s certainly an underrated player going into the 2014 season. And that’s a very sad thing, because this is how far Josh Hamilton has fallen. First, let’s recap how I warned you about the Hambone last season. And yes, I do believe our arms are this long so we can pat ourselves on the back comfortably.

“So over the course of the last 5 seasons, his O-Swing% rose by a factor of 9.1, and his Contact% plummeted by a factor of 17.3… Is he able to make adjustments? Sure, I guess. He certainly has the talent to do so. But it worries me that he hasn’t yet, and he’s had quite some time.”

So, if you didn’t figure it out, I’m saying that Josh Hamilton hasn’t either. And if he hasn’t, sure, you can try to buy him low, but I wouldn’t expect anything different from last year when he produced 73/21/79/.250/4. And you know what? You pro-rate Calhoun’s stats from last season to around 150 games, you’d be surprised how close the counting stats are to Hamilton’s. It’s a bold prediction that doesn’t really seem that bold when you delve into it. Like an onion, peeling away the layers. Or Inception.

11. Bryce Harper will hit more than 50 home runs and steal more than 30 bases.

WUT. Yeah, I know. But I wanted to try and get Harper back on the list ala Will Venable, and it just so happens that the only acceptable way is going bolder. And crazier. Well, let me tell you somethin’… when you’ve already called for a 40/25 season, this is what happens. Coincidentally, this is also what happens when you drink too much. BOURBON EVERYWHERE. ESPECIALLY IN MY MOUTH. But if you need a scientific reason why Harper can accomplish these lofty totals, I will merely state that he’s Bryce Harper. I love science.

And there it is. 11 Bold Predictions for 2014. So it was said, so it shall be done. Sorta. Err.

 

Want more of the Jay? Don’t we all folks? Don’t. We. All. Well, you, in fact, can have more. AMAZING. I know. You can find Jay enjoying his new dig’s running the Football side of Razz

  1. Tehol Beddict says:
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    Oh no you didn’t

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Tehol Beddict: We should put a bet on it. How about I buy you a drink when I’m in Seattle if I lose?

      • Tehol Beddict says:
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        @Jay: you will lose. and ill take a perrier on ice

  2. Tom Jacks

    Tom Jacks says:
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    Dear lord these are bold

  3. Jimbo says:
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    Looks like Eno is getting a sixer

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Jimbo: Maybe. Maybe not.

  4. The Fridge says:
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    Bold & Spicy….Love Arcia and Calhoun myself.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @The Fridge: Yeah, those are two guys I really like… obviously.

  5. Commish says:
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    You left off Smoak’s Triple Crown season, but otherwise I’d say that list looks tip-top.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Commish: That was probably intentional. I was drunk, not suicidal.

  6. Carnac says:
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    Freddie Freeman? Plate or platter?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Carnac: Whichever is worse.

  7. mauledbypandas says:
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    wow, that’s some bold shizz.

    how about this, Yu Darvish will strike out over 300 duders

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @mauledbypandas: I actually think my Yu Darvish bold prediction from last season could happen at some point…

  8. The Thumb says:
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    To renew a prediction from last year: Everth steals 70+ bases… Please?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @The Thumb: Yeah, if I could, I would just copy and paste last years list for this season. Maybe I was just a year too early…

  9. Goose says:
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    Jay, you’re great, fantastic, adjective – and I’m not trying be a dick – but these are even more loco than your predictions from last year.

    Did you go 0/11 last year? Seems like it. I’ll give you the Carter pick – seems like a solid prediction and the terms are vague enough to come through for you. But maybe strategically the wisest move woulda been to go with some less loco picks this time.

    This is a six-pack of beer we’re talking about, man! Actual beer!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Goose: Yeah, I did go 0fer, but I was real close on a few, and at around mid-point last season, I was 10 for 11… doesn’t count, sure. But injuries really messed up my list.

      Plus, I always up the ante. Next season’s should be even more ridiculous. Like Ryan Dempster gets stigmata.

      • Jason says:
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        @Jay: awesome we just added stigmata as a category thus year.

  10. Shake N Bacon says:
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    I’m liking the Arcia and Harper calls, mainly because I have them on my RCL team. You and Tehol should make a bet on the Domonic one.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Shake N Bacon: Yeah, I’ve put a friendly drink wager out there for Brown. Harper is tough, because I think he can launch 50 home runs at some point, but the 30 steals kinda puts it out of reach.

  11. The Guru

    The Guru says:
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    I tip my turban at your boldness and choice of brew.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @The Guru: Can the turban tip without falling off?

  12. Jake Stone says:
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    Family Guy has made fun of people who spell definitely definately.

  13. James says:
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    The Harper one is less crazy than it sounds. Williams (the new nats manager) is already having players run more, so an uptick in steals looks like a safe bet. Harper on an agressive team can steal 30 while keeping a good CS% (enough to keep giving him a green light, generally around 75% success rate). The power has been what everyone drooled over, he was touted as a 75-80 on the scouting scale coming up (and when he was drafted). So seeing elite power from him this year is not out of the question. More realistically, he goes 30/30, or maybe 35/25, but if you want to go bolder 40/30 puts him in the trout discussion. I think predicting over 40 homers in todays game is silly (even chris davis, 40 seems reasonable)

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @James: Yeah, watching the local news, Matt Williams seems very… militaristic in his coaching. Curious to see how the team responds.

    • Wilson says:
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      @James: Harper is seriously bold. He added huge bulk in the off season. Can he stay healthy with all the extra poundage?

      • Jay

        Jay says:
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        @Wilson: I think he’s more savvy than speed in that department… but yeah, it’s a legitimate question.

  14. Goose says:
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    Also, dude – I know you went back to the Venable well. But in Pads-homerism-solidarity, here’s my bold prediction: Andrew Cashner wins the Cy Young.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Goose: I would be fine with that one too!

  15. Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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    Fister vs. Porcello is bold? Seems weak. I think random SP #3 is worse than random SP#5? You’re just trying to get one right this year. Verlander vs. Porcello would have been better.

    Not sure on the B Ham playing time prediction. For example, the corpse of Ryan Ludwick is supposed to start in LF for the Reds. I’m sure Heisey will be needed there after Ludwick hits .190 in April.

    Here’s a revised bold prediction: Billy Hamilton has 25 Steals by the end of May.

    • Jacob says:
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      @Jeff in Southern Indiana:

      I think this is in reference to everyone freaking out about the Tigers/Nationals trade in the offseason.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Jeff in Southern Indiana: Where they are being drafted, the environment they pitch in, and the perception of each pitcher played into the prediction.

      • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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        @Wilson: If Skip Schumaker is a hedge then you aren’t very well protected.

        Can the Reds clean out the farm system and trade for Giancarlo or a LF RH power bat already?

        Will they really trot Ludwick and Shumaker in two OF positions every day? Thank you Walt Jocketty let’s waste Votto, Bruce, Latos, and Bailey’s prime on old Cardinals!

  16. Big Al says:
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    When I started reading this, I thought it was a promo for a new Godzilla – Mothra smash and bash in Japan movie. As I read your verbiage it defiantly reeked of herbage and I was right. Some of these may come true. Some may go up in smoke. But bold it is and I like that Well played sir !!!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Big Al: You sir are a poet.

  17. Tehol Beddict says:
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    And can someone(preferably Jay) explain the significance on wether Brown does it in a phillies Uni this season? We talking fantasy. Ok so he hits 9 for philly and 35 for (Insert your favorite team here).

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Tehol Beddict: Yeah, that was a hidden out-clause. If he get’s traded before he hits more than 10 home runs, then that’s a lock.

    • Wilson says:
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      @Tehol Beddict: Tehol- I supported your position on your Brown post a few back. Now he is 2 for 22. I know, spring stats, yadda, yadda. But seriously, 2 for 22? What gives. Maybe he’s working on “using all fields.” I ahve him at $5 and L, Martin at $1 in keeper league and will keep one of them. Talk me out of Martin.

      • Jay

        Jay says:
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        @Wilson: for me, just comes down to power vs. speed.

  18. Dan says:
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    I doubt the Hamilton one will happen. He stole 13 bases in September simply by being put in as a pinch runner (And 19 at bats). If he gets 0 at bats during the entire season and just acts as a pinch runner, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him at 70 steals.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Dan: I don’t disagree, but I wanted to go against the grain on him.

      • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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        @Andrew A: Yes, and a lot of these are bold.

        Just think he’ll be closer to Vince Coleman than 25, as his CF defense range will play well even if his bat is terrible.

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Jeff in Southern Indiana: he could’ve simply said billy Hamilton doesn’t get 45 steals to be “bold”

  19. stonepie says:
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    man you get credit for saying some bold predictions… these are much riskier than eno’s

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @stonepie: play big to win big. Doesn’t apply here, but oh well.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Jay: I guarantee you play those lottery football squares.

  20. Joe G says:
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    Hey dude would you trade Nelson cruz or Carlos Beltrán for Aníbal Sánchez just one for the pitcher?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Joe G: Yeah, in a heartbeat. I believe in Sanchez this year.

  21. Jonathan says:
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    This trade just went down in my H2H league.
    Tanaka and carlos gomez for bumgarner and Dominic brown.
    who won the trade? Fair deal?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Jonathan: Tanaka/Go-Go side, and it’s not close.

  22. Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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    JAY!!!! Wow!!! Are we on the same page or what… This is spooky… I had everything almost exactly the same as you do above on my DRAFT CHARTS already.

    Well, everything excepting for Zobrist.

    I have never liked him. Because, I think, he changed his name to score a higher in the baseball player name factor category. That is despicable and therefore unforgivable.

    Don’t worry. I don’t think that way about you and with your stage name. You are a star and in show business. That makes it all different.

    Now, that Tuhol character’s name is another thing. He is double dipping. Or is that called switch hitting at RazzBall?

    Signed, Star Struck

  23. Bobby Nice says:
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    I was thinking of taking Harper @ 7, but thought I was a bit crazy and could maybe get him in the 2nd in my league, perhaps wishful thinking. Now I’m wondering if I’m as crazy as you or if we’re both upper level thinkers and upside gamblers. I don’t remember reading much from you last year, but are you the “crazy” guy on the site or what? The standard guys at 7 just make me itchy, Adam Jones, Robinson Cano, and or Cargo. What’s Harper’s floor? Last years numbers, cause he did also get injured like the others have the capability of doing? He has climbed up to 9 in the Mock’s at Yahoo, which is what my league uses, so probably won’t get him in the 2nd.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Bobby Nice: Yeah, from what I’ve seen, he’s going early second round…

  24. costaricanchata says:
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    man , you loco !

    how about something more realistic ?
    ellsbury out-scores puig in all 5 categories (standard roto)

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @costaricanchata: Then it would just be normal predictions, right?

  25. L'ville Jim says:
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    Number 5 is the funniest one.

  26. Alky Sobrera says:
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    Read eno’s this morning, and figured yours would be quite a bit bolder. This is pretty bonkers though. How many times did you veto his predictions? Bet he vetoed 0 of yours, lol.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Alky Sobrera: There were zero veto’s for both of us. It’s not like anything important is at stake…

  27. Jacks says:
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    Regarding zobrist. How do you get a hr deduction out of fb Babip? Hrs don’t count in Babip. They are not considered balls in play because, we’ll, they go out of the park. A low fb Babip could happen with or without hrs. They simply don’t factor in. No deduction to be made. You might want to remove that prediction if u have money on ythe line. Bad deduction bro …

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Jacks: From the post that I quoted, the blurb was referring to an overall degradation of production. But with the way I worded this post’s blurb, point taken.

  28. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    you got big cajones coming out of the closet after last year’s ‘illustrious’ results

  29. Adam says:
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    dang… bold indeed Jay. Quick question. I’m in a dynasty league (40 man rosters, 25 man starting) and have been stockpiling prospects, including a certain Miguel Sano. Obviously, he’s done for the season, but should I let him go to free up a bench slot or hold on to him for dear life? I have plenty of other minor leaguers (maybe too many?), but man, letting Sano go to be swiped up by someone else seems painful. Thoughts?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Adam: Hold on. Power is a premium at this point.

  30. J-FOH says:
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    If Arcia is in Colorado then he over takes Myers

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @J-FOH: I sense some bias with your statement… when did you draft Myers in the writer’s league?

  31. MB says:
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    Alright keeper guy, I have Fister and am competing now, so should I trade him before it gets too late for any of these fellas?

    Masterson, Kluber, Griffin, Cingrani, Lester, Samardzija, Ryu

    Thanks man

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @MB: Hmm, out of that list, I’d hold. Personally, I’d like to have Kluber, Samardzija, and Lester for the K’s, but Fister helps your ratios a lot if you’er okay in that area.

  32. Pepe says:
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    I wish there was a google translate for this website that removed all the schtick and left the baseball. razzball has become a parody of itself. Oh how I miss the good ole days.

  33. HawaiianKrush says:
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    Big deal….anybody can just throw out crap and hope some of it sticks

  34. Swfcdan says:
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    May you and your long fellow win!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Swfcdan: That’s what she said!

  35. c0wfunk says:
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    Been drinking on the koko brown this last week, kona brews always seem to be on sale. Surprising how well coconut in beer works, but there it is. Nice list, good luck..

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @c0wfunk: Yeah, love the stuff. It’s more sentimental pick though. I’ve spent a lot of time out there…

  36. Chief says:
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    Man Jay, that is ambitious. You are the bravest soul on Razz, I think that is without a doubt. Do your competition a favor and get him some Heady Topper. That is prize-worthy beer.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Chief: I’m going to check that one out.

  37. 2 Cups 1 Braun says:
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    Would you lose Calhoun or Brad Miller for Will Venable in a 10 team 6X6 OBP/Slug league?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @2 Cups 1 Braun: I actually wouldn’t. My Venable pick was more homer than anything. At the end of the day, he’s got a long road to repeat last season.

  38. Clint says:
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    From the rankings, it appears both Miami OF’s, Arcia and Ozuna, are very close and I believe Grey had a sleeper post on Ozuna earlier in the season so if they’re both on the board, which is the better sleeper then?

    I hope you’re right regarding Chris Carter. I just hope you’re right he has more Chris Davis in him than Adam Dunn.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Clint: I think it was Sky. But I’m leaning Arcia.

  39. Dead Head says:
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    So wait, which ones are Eno’s bold predictions? Or are his coming later or on FanGraphs? I don’t think I understood that very well…

    But most of those sound like they could be on the money. Some I don’t necessarily agree with but that’s why they are bold predictions. I actually like Dom Brown this year, the injury could’ve contributed to his lower Fly Ball distance, and also to the increased K rate and lower BB rate. But he could easily revert those to career norms while taking another step forward in Power or at least keeping some of his gains. Unfortunately that Phillies lineup is just god awful.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Dead Head: his are over at fangraphs.

  40. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    1. Calhoun, yep
    2. harper to get 50 homers is way less crazy than billy to get less than 25 steals. even in pinch running only land, Hamilton could get 35-40 with ease.
    3. tulo, a feeling? bookies with futures bets should just follow you around like that hot dog vendor did to Homer, “lady, he’s putting my kids through college”.
    4. porcello over fister in everything but wins I would believe, DET’s bullpen is pile of trash. we’re gonna see a bunch of scherzer/porcello/verlander/smyly/annabell non-wins this year.

  41. Justin Sylvan says:
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    Jay, I love these predictions. I had a question about Carter/Arcia. Are they better options than Yan Gomes, Aj Griffin. Those are my last 2 guys (besides springer/baez)

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      Probably not the smart thing… but I’d gamble with one of them. Probably over Griffin.

  42. DJ says:
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    enjoyable piece, plenty bold all the way around, even if i do think the j-ham/calhoun call is about 50/50.

    my only real problem comes with the freeman prediction. i think anyone predicting 30 bombs or another BABIP over .370 are out on a limb, but i think you’re missing the indicators showing that freddie’s numbers are more likely headed up than down. in his three full seasons he has improved his BB%, K%, SLG%, LD%, & HR/FB% year-over-year. his FB% is stable, his playing time/health are solid, and even his R and RBI are showing signs of being reliably predictable. the only downside is a 50% drop in steals each of the last two years. i’m especially interested in seeing if that trend continues.

    i think you’re starting this matchup in the hole 0-1.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @DJ: His HR/FB has been the same the past two seasons. His .ISO was actually lower last season, and matched his career mark. His BB% and K% were in line with his career marks… we just saw his ceiling.

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