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You read the title right. In fact, we went over the first five in Part I right here. Are you ready for the last five, plus a bonus uno mas section? The answer is yes, by the way. So… I guess I might have some splainin’ to do at the end of the year, but I’m proud to throw out the wildest, aka BOLDEST predictions out there. Trust me, these will all be two-drink minimum statements I’ll be laying down. But we ain’t calling this bold because I have a grudge against italics. And I’m not just spouting crazy for crazy’s sake… which I know, brace yourselves, is much different than you’re used to. I’m also going to be sharing evidence to support my claims. And everyone does 10-list’s, so I’m going to be one better, cause that’s how I roll. Right down that hill over there. Hey, you want to steal 10 VCR’s? Here I am, pushing you out of the way to steal 11. Before I ask you why we’re stealing a dead media format, I’m quickly running, cause those be sirens I hear. So, you’re going to eat 10 of those Cool Ranch Doritos Loco Taco’s? Well then, challenge accepted. Actually, wait, no. I take that back. You’ve found something I don’t want 10 of, much less 11. Anyhow, let us continue with the six-spot.

6. Jered Weaver will have an ERA over 4.50.

This one was actually easy to peg. Originally, I was going to predict an ERA over 3.75 for Jered Weaver, but, after pondering for a while, I realized that might be Times New Roman underlined and italicized, but that ain’t bold. Thusly, I changed it to 4.50. Now, as you may recall, since it was just a sentence ago, I stated that this one was easy to peg. Let’s go over why. The most visually pleasing way to attempt this is to post pictures of hot nekked chicks. But there are two reasons I can’t do that. First, you are probably in a NSFW area while reading this. Second, that really doesn’t show any Weaver warning signs. Actually, there would be no warning signs at all. Only two pointy signs. So, instead, let’s have a super duper chart session.

Year FIP K/9 HR/9 MPH
2010 3.06 9.35 0.92 90.1
2011 3.20 7.56 0.76 89.2
2012 3.75 6.77 0.95 88.0

Unless you’re blind, the chart is pretty self-explanatory. And if you are blind, chances are close to zero that you’ll be reading this. What we see here is an erosion of Weaver’s fastball velocity, adding to the downward trend lines. Whether it’s a result of hidden shoulder or elbow issues, or just a plain pitcher aging curve issue, the signs are troubling. Despite this, it has been 648.2 innings since Weaver last posted a seasonal ERA north of 3.02, so his demise could be overstated. But I’m not betting on it. In fact, I’m doubling down that rocky roads are coming. We all scream for ice cream. I do at least. Like a little girl.

7. Matt Wieters will hit 30+ homeruns. 

Yes, I know we’ve all been waiting half a decade for the Wheat-splosion to happen. While I could argue that he’s quite a valuable catcher already, I think everyone was expecting 300/350/475 rather than 260/330/430 at this point. So why am I still the only one left standing, still touting that Matt Wieters is the greatest thing since sliced bread? Well, mainly since these are two-minimum drink statements, and we’re on what now? Threeve? Eleventy? Seven? That’s all we’ve done? Seven? If my math mode doesn’t betray me, we are 14 drinks in, so that could be part of the problem. For what its worth, I actually think 14 drinks is always part of the solution. What I see is a walk rate that’s improving, along with the fact that his HR/FB was a career high last season at 15.5%. Wieter’s ISO was also solid at .186. Combine all of that with the fact that most catchers usually have their offensive peaks later in their careers, albeit, with a shorter period of peakness, of which, I should mention, is a word I just made up. I’m going to assume that there is still projection left, and that Wieters is certainly capable of hitting eight more bombs than last year.

8. Will Venable will have a 20/40 season.

I covered my bullish thoughts on Will Venable in the preseason Deep Impact series, so I’ll just shortly touch upon that now. And you know me and touching, so shortly is a real sacrifice here. Longly whenever possible! But yeah, fences are coming in where it most matters in terms of where his power is. Wow, there’s gotta be an easier sentence structure. Fences closer where he hurt ball. There, that’s measurably better, ahem, for a three-year-old… His ISO went from .149 in 2011 to .165 in 2012. The BB/9 and K/9 are trending in the right directions, and he’s on the right side of the platoon, which is a strange phrase to use, since technically he’s left-handed. Venable’s already put up a ‘close to’ 15/30 year, along with two ‘close to’ 10/25 years. So let’s add some bold spice, and kick it up a notch. BAM!

9. Jeff Samardzija will have a lower ERA and WHIP and have more strikeouts than Justin Verlander.

Whoooo, things are getting crazy up in here. You knew I was high on the Shark, but you must be thinking that I’m high in general with what I just put down. Look, this really doesn’t have anything to do with Justin Verlander. I still think he’s the bees knees. This is more about what I see Jeff Samardzija turning into, and that’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. I only picked Verlander because he was tails, and Clayton Kershaw was heads. (I chose tails, for those of you who aren’t following.) It just so happens that Samardzija’s fastball averaged 95.0 MPH in 2012, second only behind Verlander. Just to make an excuse to bring some GIF magic into this post, let’s discuss the Shark’s out-pitch, a devastating splitter.

Note, that as a hitter, when you swing and miss in such a manner…

You will most likely do this immediately afterwards:

His wSF (split-fingered fastball runs above average) was 11.6 last season. That’s a fancy way of showing how effective a particular pitch is. To give context, Roy Halladay, who is known for throwing one of the best splitters in the game, has a career wSF of 11.2. In general, Samardzija had a better K/9, but worse BB/9 and HR/9 than Verlander. But they aren’t far off from each other. I think this year, another step forward is taken by the Chi-town pitcher, whose name I’m tired of typing, while a little bit regression hits the Tigers ace.

10. Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and Colby Rasmus will combine to hit more homeruns than the San Francisco Giants. 

To set this up really quick, let’s go over the 2012 homerun totals of all parties involved. Edwin Encarnacion (42), Jose Bautista (27), and Colby Rasmus (23) combined to hit 92 homeruns. The San Francisco Giants, as a team, managed only 103 homeruns, good for last in the league. Now, this prediction may count as one, but I’m really saying four different things here. First, I believe that E5 will not regress heavily. His homerun distance and speed off the bat have both been trending upwards the last four years. I’m still expecting 35+ dingers. Second, I think JoeyBats will come back fully healthy, and put up a typical season that we’re all used to and drops a 40+ spot. I believe, as stated in Deep Impact: Undervalued, that he’s back and proper. Then thirdly, and this is where this ride gets a bit rocky… I’m officially stating that Colby Rasmus, the fantasy village bike that every team has ridden, will have enough power to be fantasy relevant as a 4/5 outfielder. Yes, he disappeared for about two-thirds of the 2012 season, but I still have no problem pegging him for 25+ homeruns, albeit, with lousy rate stats, and will guesstimate that he hits 30+ bombs this year. Which basically makes him Josh Reddick. So, for the sake of math, I have the Toronto Triumvirate (that’s mine, no touchy) at a total of 105+ homeruns. Fourth, and lastly, I’m expecting the Giants to be themselves. It’s no mistake that they finished last in homeruns in 2012. Buster Posey was the team leader at 24, and the next nearest player was Pablo Sandoval, coming in with 12 dingers and introducing hamate into our vernacular. Combine that with the fact that AT&T has a park factor of -74, which, in long ball terms, equates to only 67 homeruns being produced for every 100 hit in an average ballpark, well, its not really a stretch to see the power outage continue. Especially since the Giants don’t have a premier power hitter, and haven’t since Barry Bonds. But this is still bold. In today’s run environment, its hard to imagine enough power coming from three guys, on the same team no less, of which a lot of people have concerns with, to eclipse the total of an entire Major League roster. I came to play. And dance. Yes, I dance. Not well, but we’re drinking. So I’ll do a lot of things not well.

Did you want uno mas mi hermano? Of course you do.

11. Yonder Alonso will hit more homeruns than Adrian Gonzalez

You might be asking, “Is the intro to this bonus area in terrible Spanish because it involves Spanish players?” No, because that would be raycess. I think. Regardless, I like the juxtaposition because one guy is the first baseman for the Padres, and the other used to be the first baseman for the Padres. On top of that, or below that, depending on your skills with altitude, one (supposedly) has no power, and the other is your proto-typical corner slugger. Now, I already went over Yonder Alonso and his power prospects in the last Under the Greydar of the off-season. Quick recap, he has more power coming, and I have projected 24 homeruns for 2013. So let’s go over Adrian Gonzalez. I’m concerned about his plummeting BB%, down 4.2% from 2011. In the same time frame, his ISO also plummeted from .210 to .164. Some would say it was just a down year, but if you include the year previously, in 2010, you’ll see there is now a three year trend of power drainage. While there might be a rebound in his HR/FB of 9.6% closer to his career 16.4%, that might only account for five to six more homeruns. There’s a history of slugging first baseman that have struggled to stay relevant past their age 30 season, and we might be seeing the beginning of the end. Even if I’m wrong, I think Alonso and Gonzalez are a lot closer, talent wise, then people like to admit. Or I’m just blackout drunk at this point. In that case, put on some Wang Chung and grab/caress any body part that moves in your general sphere of influence.

So that does it for my 11 Bold Predictions for 2013. Join me at the end of the year where we will revisit this post and see how well I did. I’m sure I’ll be eating plenty of crow, and since I’ll most likely be hung over still, just make sure you deep fry that sucker.

  1. Tom Jacks

    Tom Jacks says:
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    First thought: Wow.

    Second thought: You could get half of these right by injuries to Verlander, Adrian and the ghost of San Fran’s offense.

    Final thought: Where’s Tonya Harding these days?

    • Carnac says:
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      @Tom Jacks: [Shuffles papers on desk] I think I have the number for a guy from the Bolshoi Ballet around here somewhere…

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Carnac: Ha!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Tom Jacks: Wouldn’t that be something? A whole entire MLB team pulling their hamstring in one collective action? Maybe Panda shifts during a flight and rolls them over?

      By that I mean he’s fat.

  2. Sky

    Sky says:
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    Well, I know what to get you for your b-day: a Padres bed set.

    I actually like most of your calls. Yonder is iffy but then again, so is Adrian’s shoulder so there’s that. If Venable goes 20/40, I’ll perform that weird sexual act you told me requires a wire scrub brush and jelly beans…on myself.

    • Don't Jump Kendrys says:
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      @Sky: I have Venable and now I’m rooting against him. Damn you Sky. Damn you.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @Don’t Jump Kendrys: I’ll send you pics if it happens. Maybe even in GIF format if Jaywrong helps!

      • Jay

        jaywrong says:
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        @Don’t Jump Kendrys: Yeah, I don’t make GIFs that make me throw up a little in my mouth upon viewing.

          • Jay

            jaywrong says:
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            @Sky: I’m not even clicking on that.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Where’s your sense of adventure?

              • Jay

                jaywrong says:
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                @Sky: I’m sleepy.

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  @jaywrong: I suggest a Red Bull & Vodka enema.

                  • Jay

                    jaywrong says:
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                    @Sky: I said sleepy, not horny.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Well if we throw in roofies, we could pretend you’re both.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Sky: Hey, there were only two pads on the list.

      20% is not *that* much.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        They’re 20% of the NL West. That’s enough for me! I’m just glad you didn’t say Eric Stultz would finish in the Cy Young voting.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Sky: well, I want to be taken *somewhat* seriously…

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            @jaywrong: Well, I wish you would’ve told me. I’ve had you tabbed for ‘barely’ seriously for awhile.

            • Jay

              jaywrong says:
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              @Sky: I try to hide it. I think.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                You need to learn how to tuck better.

                • Jay

                  jaywrong says:
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                  @Sky: Good tip.

  3. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    #s 7, 9 and 11 contain bold predictions I think will happen. The other three? No.

    I like the Cool Ranch Doritos Locos Taco. My favorite Taco Bell items are7-layer burritos and MexiMelts. The best tacos I ever had were fish tacos I ate at some little restaurant bar in San Diego.

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson: mexican pizza, enchiritos and the unlisted tostada’a

      • Jay

        jaywrong says:
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        @Jack Full of Hate: Yeah, just taco supreme’s for me. I know of nothing else on their menu.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson: I actually have no interest to try them. I don’t even like the Doritos Cool Ranch chips.

      I’ve been way too privileged, as Jack knows, growing up in SoCal and having access to real authentic zesty spanish cuisine, so Taco Bell really doesn’t do anything for me unless I’m drunk.

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @jaywrong: our best “spanish cuisine” comes from a Roach Coach or a place with a “B” in the window

  4. me says:
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    Adrian Gonzalez is from San Diego.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @me: Yes he is. I had the pleasure of playing against him in high school, during winter ball. (Valhalla vs. Eastlake)

      • Richie says:
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        @jaywrong: @jaywrong:

        You went to Valhalla? Nice! I went to Monte Vista

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Richie: Sweet. Class of 01. Nice to see a couple So-Cal folk in here. Even though technically I’m an east coaster now.

          You can take me out of the west, but can’t take the west out of me.

  5. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    I meant Supreme. I had the CRDLT supreme as opposed to the CRDLT. I need the tomatoes and sour cream.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson: Yes, as I said above, all I know of is Taco Supremes. Great munchies when drunk or, ahem, in another state.

      • DonSlaughtOnslaught says:
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        @jaywrong: I grew up in a college town when Taco Bell used to have Taco’s on special for 59 cents. It was great for when in that, ahem, wink wink state.

        Also Gorditas, steak Baja and chicken supreme were phenomenal munchie food.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @DonSlaughtOnslaught: I forgot about Gorditas. I think I only like the steak one.

          wink wink state is the best time for taco time.

          • Wake Up says:
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            @jaywrong: Gotta love beef sold as beef that is only 35% beef……if you ain’t writing for taco bell, stay the hell away from taco hell!

            • Jay

              jaywrong says:
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              @Wake Up: 35% seems high.

  6. Carnac says:
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    Isn’t a group of 3 or more Blue Jays called a “murder”? Maybe I’m confusing them with crows or the birds in Baltimore…

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Carnac: Err, maybe? Murder is so depressing though.

  7. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Does grey require you to be bold and outrageous to keep your job?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Jack Full of Hate: He tells me to be myself.

      So yes, you are correct in your statement.

  8. royce! says:
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    Just picked up Venable in the RCL…I’m in dead last at 37 points, so it’s time to get crazy (and own Padres)!!!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @royce!: I’m surprised you didn’t already have him. I own him in my RCL team as well, but I picked up Quentin to hedge. I keep on forgetting to write a post on how he is primed to have a good year if healthy. *If* healthy is always so hard to bet on though, so I’m iffy how far I want people to buy.

      And I swear, my teams would win more, in both baseball and football, if I wasn’t such a homer.

      • royce! says:
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        @jaywrong: I already had Maybin as my 4th OF, and two Padres is pushing it, even for a padres fan…

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @royce!: Yeah, could point. I’m just not confident that Maybin will ever make enough contact to be a dependable fantasy asset.

          But man, in real life, love the player.

      • royce! says:
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        @jaywrong: oh, winning teams are boring…which I suppose means that our lives are the height of excitement!

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @royce!: True. The problem is, when they do win, they still manage to break our hearts.

          Being a Chargers fan really tests the resolve.

  9. Tehol Beddict says:
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    WEITERS AKA GOD

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Tehol Beddict: Yes, I have to agree here.

    • jason batteiger says:
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      @Tehol Beddict: let’s hold off on that wieters for God stuff until monday, if possible. Unless we wanna make Avila God equal until the end of Sunday.

  10. gamebreakers says:
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    Go high or go home, right? Not sure I see weaver imploding that much but maybe a little nearer to 4.00 is a strong possibility. Venerable w 20 shots is very likely IMO but the 40 will be the more challenging part of that statement. I like Yonder, I could see it happen. As a cubs fan (I have learned to cheer on other teams in their subpar years…which is alot, I know) that would be sweet to see

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @gamebreakers: I actually agree with you here, but I just didn’t want to come in soft. I know another website, which will remain unnamed, does a ’10 bold predictions’, but really, a lot of them were, WTF? That’s ain’t bold! So my filter was basically coming to a rational outlook, and then multiply it by a factor of ‘That’s effing insane’!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Big Magoo: I love that pic.

      But when I think of an avatar, I have to give a shout out to Trek. The entire series shaped me into who I am today. Hahah, just kidding. I have a life.

      Seriously though, I love all things trek. But if you see my twitter @jaywrong, my Gwynn shout out is there. A beautiful background, if I do say so myself.

  11. Alex says:
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    Should I drop Kendrys Morales for Alonso?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Alex: I may be in the minority, but I would.

      • JoeC says:
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        @jaywrong: You’re in a minority of two: you and Yonder Alonso’s mom. :)

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @JoeC: Haha, yeah, maybe.

  12. Pefacommish says:
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    It’s funny the reactions I have reading this. I’m going down the list thinking: idiotic, crazy, lunatic, this guy’s on drugs, this is just an April Fools joke, oh come on now, and…

    Samardzjia > Verlander. Hey, I have Samardzjia. Woo Hoo!!! Man, this guy is smart! These predictions may actually happen.

    All you have to do is find one thing that each person has a vested interest in happening and BANG! That Jaywrong is some kind of fortune teller…

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Pefacommish: Haha, yeah, that seems to be the consensus.

      I’m horrible at everything until I’m not.

      I hope to get all of them right, but even a couple seems like a victory.

  13. The Guru

    The Guru says:
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    Stay bold Mr JayWrong!

    Just did up some taco bell. My bathroom is now cool ranch fresh.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @The Guru: I just shivered.

  14. Wake Up says:
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    Those are pretty bold…nice work

    I don’t like the Cano one or the A Gon, Yonder one…

    Nova over Haren is my fav

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Wake Up: Cano on your team?

      Ivan Nova might be the most under the radar guy. I’m not sure to many 10 redrafts knows that he exists.

      • Wake Up says:
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        @jaywrong: Nope. But I can’t imagine that he hits below .275

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Wake Up: Yeah, I set myself up for a tough one there.

          • Wake Up says:
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            @jaywrong: I see where you’re going though…Cano’s protection is gone…and he gets more swing happy with guys on base, etc…

            • Jay

              jaywrong says:
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              @Wake Up: mostly a gut call on that one… actually, they were all gut calls. Cano was one of my weaker arguments. But I still don’t trust MI’s past 30.

  15. Doorstop says:
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    Is Samardzija the new Lincecum? Like, not even just cause of the hair. Performance wise, Vintage Lincecum is 2013 Samardzija?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Doorstop: Maybe. Different frame, pitching styles. Actually, the comp I used for discussing his splitter, Roy Halladay, isn’t a bad match. Though, the Shark was a little homer prone. That number should regress a bit from what I see.

      But in terms of results, yeah, I could see some prime Lincecum years here.

  16. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Venable or Cain?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Jack Full of Hate: Venable. I’m sure you’re not surprised.

  17. Hats for Bats says:
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    I grabbed Alonso in a deep 12 team Yahoo H2H. He’s my backup to Pujols and hopefully reaches your projections.

    I’m weak at 3B – Lonnie Chisenhall . . . Belch

    1) Who is this Jordan Pacheco hitting 6th behind Cargo, Tulo, Willin and has 1B/3B/C elligibility?

    2) Do I accept Miggy & Frazier for Strasburg & Upton? I have Wil Myers waiting on my NA and I gots Nellie, Ichiro, & Domo-Brown. I know it’s an overpayment, but I feel like my pitching can take the hit & my 3B is really god awful.

    My pitching has Lester, CC, Scherzer, Beckett, Estrada, Teheran, Jose Fernandez

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Hats for Bats:

      1) In deep leagues or 2 C leagues, Pacheco is a guy worth looking at. 12 team is right on the cusp, but most likely there will be better options out there. True talent level is around 280/330/400, which has some value with his eligibility. I could see a 10/10 if he gets enough AB’s.

      2) I think you are over paying slightly, only because Upton>Frazier. If that’s what you need to pay to get a 3B, that’s fine, I’d understand it. But I’d rather see you put Lester out there for a 3B and see what it nets you. Maybe try for a Headley, whose value should still be stifled.

  18. Cougar Albright says:
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    Gotta say, your writing style fits right in here. Love it, love you going out on a limb.

    I continue to drop down menu/scroll/click on razzball.com, because the spirit of Razzball is to go big or go home. Wrong, maybe. Right, maybe. Not Matthew Berry, always.

    Now I gotta go, my Greyby is calling.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, Cougs! Cheater!

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        You’ve both got Greybies

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Cougar Albright: Say Matthew Berry two more times and his article will appear with 5 name drops and several pictures of his celebrity proximity infatuations. Tread carefully.

      Are you sure mustache isn’t calling me?

Comments are closed.